Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: Afghanistan Aspiration for an Independent Energy Country

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1 Journal of Energy and Power Engineering 11 (2017) doi: / / D DAVID PUBLISHING Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: Afghanistan Aspiration for an Independent Energy Country Mir Sayed Shah Danish 1, Najib Rahman Sabory 1, Sayed Mir Shah Danish 2, Tomonobu Senjyu 3, Gul Ahmad Ludin 3, Ahmad Samim Noorzad 3 and Atsushi Yona 3 1. Department of Energy Engineering, Kabul University, Kabul 1004, Afghanistan 2. Department of Electrical Engineering, Technical Teachers Training Academy (TTTA), Kabul 1006, Afghanistan 3. Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa , Japan Received: February 22, 2017 / Accepted: March 06, 2017 / Published: August 31, 2017 Abstract: The rapid change in economic growth and human civilization has led to a dramatic increase in energy utilization and electricity demand. That faces nations with the challenge of maintaining cost-effective and clean power energy production. This paper aims to present Afghanistan electricity sector development and energy resources exploitation in a broad context. With the global growing interest in Afghanistan rehabilitation, this paper presents energy development trends in Afghanistan. Besides, the future outlook up to 2032 and the challenges that face electricity sector are highlighted. This study tries to emerge the historical development, current status, and future direction of Afghanistan electricity sector till 2032, in a precise collection. Key words: Afghanistan electricity, electricity development trends, electricity sector challenges, electricity policy. 1. Introduction Afghanistan is a country in the South Asia, which is extremely endowed with natural resources. The first electricity station with a capacity of 40 lights was built in 1893 in the capital of Afghanistan (Kabul). Post-conflict efforts are made by the IROA (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) and international donors to focus on expanding the availability of energy resources throughout the country. Particular emphasis has been put on expanding and rehabilitating the electricity sector; hydro-electric generation, rehabilitating and expanding electricity generation factories, developing renewable energy resources in rural and remote areas, increasing low-cost power imports and improving the capability of energy sector institutions [1]. With the rise of the new government Corresponding author: Mir Sayed Shah Danish, Ph.D. fellow, assistance professor, research field: sustainable energy. in 2001, electricity is given far greater preference or priority than other sectors because socio-economies are built on electricity. Priority is then assigned to other sub-sectors based on their supporting role in electricity and in overall economic development. There was urgent need to solve the electricity shortage in Kabul with consideration of all options from economic feasibility point of view, the electricity imports were preference (Table 1). In 2011, the electrical energy imports reported to be 2,250 GWh, originated from four neighboring countries as shown in Fig. 1. This imports amounting to 73% of overall electrical energy demand of electrified areas in country [2]. In 2012 the electricity consumption in Afghanistan is reported about GWh, of which 20.8% was generated inside the country (20.2% hydro and 0.7% thermal) and 79.2% imported from the neighboring countries [3, 4]. Report shows a rapid increase

2 554 Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: Table 1 Cost of electricity generation from different accessible sources in Afghanistan. Type of source Average estimate unit price (USc/kWh) Hydro 2.29 Thermal Imported 2.62 Hydro and diesel 5.19 Hydro, diesel and thermal Natural gas Coal 1 MW-4.5 ton of coal, cost of one ton coal is priced 2,200 AFG ( 40 USD). Fig. 1 Afghanistan electricity import statistics from four neighboring countries in in consumption, i.e., load demand from 1,289,246 MWh in 2006 to 3,086,113 MWh in 2011 [2, 3]. Emergency Power Rehabilitation Project for reliable supply of electricity to the residents of Kabul was counted of the most important electrification project [5]. Other achievement in international relations should be reminded that Afghanistan became the 54th Member of the Energy Charter Conference on 7th of December, 2012, and role of energy resources such as a machine to integrate central Asia in world business [6]. According to London Conference in 2006, Afghanistan government was committed to achieve the benchmarks in accordance with the timelines to cover electricity at least 65% of households and 90% of non-residential and major urban area and at least 25% of households in rural areas by the end of But it does not meet his target [7]. Despite progress and efforts to date, the existing governance arrangements and policy framework for the sector are still insufficient to support a market-based energy system [8]. 2. Prospective toward Self-efficiency ( ) An outline of the development of electricity generation in Afghanistan from the date of the establishment of the electricity supply board in 1927, gave the preference to electricity sector than other priorities [1]. Growing hydro plants offers the largest share of capacity for over 50% of grid connected installed capacity. Hydropower counts the most promising long-term resource for power generation in Afghanistan. Thermal generation, primarily diesel generation, supplies power mainly to urban areas. Utilization of indigenous fossil fuels (natural gas and coal) for power generation is very limited as is utilization of solar, wind and other renewable energy resources [1]. Thermal generation uses local gas and coal deposits; moreover this project will include optimization of 15 points of hydro and micro hydro power stations [2]. Fig. 2 shows the consumed power

3 Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: 555 Fig. 2 Afghanistan consumed power information. capacity of different resources in 2007 in Afghanistan. 2.1 Electricity Sector Master Plan Afghanistan Power Sector Master Plan Project (project number ) was launched on 4th of October, 2013, under the energy sector development program of ADB (Asian Development Bank). The obvious scope of the power sector master plan is to electrify Afghanistan based on priorities, time frame, cost associated within the framework of Afghanistan energy policy. This salient project is financed by part of ADB, and it will accomplish in four stages 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2032 respectively. The connection rate is expected to reach 100% in urban and 65% in rural areas toward the end of 2032 [2]. In 2013, Fichtner Company forecasted the whole Afghanistan gross demand will be 18,400 GWh averagely in 2032, it shows an increase of 5.7% to 8.7% per annum on average from its current level [2]. This project will require a total gross investment of generation development, network integration, new transmission project and expansion, $10,096 million, $7,330 million, $1,727 million and $1,040 million, respectively [2]. With successful implements of this project, not only Afghanistan becomes self-sufficient and will move on to autarky, but also will be capable for extra generation capacity. 2.2 Economic Framework and Development Access to reliable and affordable energy services for sustainable development sufficient to facilitate the achievement to create other important services that mitigate poverty can be a reality, bearing in mind that access to energy facilitates the eradication of poverty [9]. Furthermore, it will have important role in improving security as well. The GDP (gross domestic product) per capita rate in Afghanistan is estimated in early 2013 and reported 1,000 USD in 2011, which ranked a dismal 217th in the world [10]. There is also a string relationship between per capita electricity consumption and human development [11]. According the CFC (Civil-military Fusion Center), economic growth is, in turn, at the heart of increased employment, poverty reduction, and overall social and political stability and security [12]. Afghanistan s economy is recovering from decades of conflict. The economy has improved significantly since the fall of the Taliban regime in Despite the progress of the past few years, still Afghanistan is known to be extremely poor, landlocked, and highly dependent on foreign aid [9]. Most of the population

4 556 Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: in rural areas continues to suffer from shortages of basic living facilities especially electricity. Afghanistan is one of less developed countries in the world with 36% of its population living below the poverty line and about 75% being illiterate. Income per capita in 2011/2012 was reported to be around 600 USD [2] (These statistics are declared different from different organizations). Afghanistan economy is mainly based on agriculture and services sector. In contrast, industry is of very low importance. Vast deposits of natural resources, which are expected to be able to contribute up to 5% of annual growth of Afghanistan economic, in addition, to alleviate poverty, it ensures profoundly political stability as well [2]. During evolutionary path of industrialization and modernization of the region countries, Afghanistan is a key country between central and south Asia, in addition to intact energy resources it has a leading role to be a bridge of energy between region countries. While, there is growing demand for electricity throughout the region countries, so imports and transit of energy bring significant gain to Afghanistan. The proposed CASA-1000 (Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project) 500 kv HVDC transmission line from Tajikistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, will facilitate the first electricity trade of 1,300 MW. This project contributes to stability and economic growth in Afghanistan, and boosts inter-dependent prosperity in all the countries involved [13]. Whereas, the cumulative supply-demand potential gaps of India and Pakistan from Central Asia through Afghanistan are 12,276 MW and 5,500 MW respectively [14]. These opportunities open the ways for an economic growth, industrialization, and modernization. 3. Constraints A collection of problems, such as geographical situation, a significant downturn, political disharmony, war, damage, and poor maintenance policy of electrification infrastructure have led to inconsistent and inadequate electric power supply, transmission, distribution, and utilization in many electrified areas of Afghanistan. Currently, Kabul (central of Afghanistan) is suffering from shortage of electricity, and government is focused to expand currying capacity in transmission line toward Kabul [2, 15]. Research indicates that security concerns, particularly in the south and east of Afghanistan, endanger the development and sustainability of the energy sector [12]. According to the EIAD (Energy Infrastructure Attack Database) of Journal of Energy Security, in 2011, nearly 500 attacks were recorded and Afghanistan was among the four countries with the highest concentration of energy infrastructure attacks [12, 16]. According to Re-Engineering Afghanistan: At What Cost?, the prime contractors in Afghanistan are working on a cost-plus basis that encourages overspending. Recently, Afghanistan is shown off as a war zone, and it has had very little infrastructure [17]. The most existing barriers for rural areas electrification are lack of interest of private investment in large scale renewable energy; security issue could be caused from this mischance. Afghanistan, due to the terrain and widely scattered nature of the rural population, presents huge challenges to standard grid based electrification outside of the major cities [18]. However, the MRRD (Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development) is, in support of the ANDS (Afghan National Development Strategy), working to provide electricity for rural areas. 4. Conclusions Throughout the world, everywhere is endowed with the renewable energy sources for inexhaustible electricity production and supply. This paper reviews numbers of transition in electricity sector in the past, in Afghanistan; also evolution and potential of the electricity production in the future in the way of sustainable development. The finding indicates that

5 Electricity Sector Development Trends in an After-war Country: 557 the power sector in Afghanistan has been confronted of excess ups and downs before and during the postwar period. Due to existing problems in the country not too much work has been done to electricity sector; production and consumption remain in initial stages. Whereas, Afghanistan is one of the countries rich in natural resources for electricity production in the region countries. Investigation on various aspects of different systems and accumulation of all under one scholarly topic is the significance of this study. Acknowledgment This work is part of a research study, financially supported by the JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) and Engineering Faculty of the University of the Ryukyus under RONPAKU Ph.D. (R11511) fellowship (JSPS/OF/214090, 2016), respectively with the aim of eminent researchers empowerment. References [1] Energy Sector Strategy, Pillar 3, Infrastructure Kabul: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. [2] Kabul: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) Technical assistance consultant s report. [3] Kabul: Afghan Energy Information Center (AEIC) Electricity monthly production report (MWH). [4] Information of Afghanistan Energy Sector Kabul: USAID. [5] Zia, A Country Update, the World Bank Group in Afghanistan. Kabul: The World Bank. [6] The Ministry of Energy and Water Presented at International Conference on Strengthening Regional Cooperation for Promotion of Permanent and Reliable Energy in Euro Asian. Kabul: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. [7] A Collection of Official Texts from 2001 to Kabul: Civil Military Fusion Centre. [8] Environmental and Social Management Framework for Afghanistan, Naghlu Hydropower Rehabilitation Project (NHRP) Kabul: DABS. [9] Modi, V., McDade, S., Lallement, D., and Saghir, J Energy Services for the Millennium Development Goals. Kabul: UNDP. [10] Cordesman, A Afghanistan, Meeting the Real World Challenges of Transition. Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). [11] Correlation between Human Development and Per Capita Electricity Consumption. J. Energy Security (IAGS). [12] Naghlu Hydropower Plant Kabul: Panoramio. [13] Line Routing Has Been Investigated and Described in Their Final Feasibility Update Report Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade (CASA-1000) Kabul: Asia Development Bank (ADB). [14] Regional Electricity Cooperation in Central and Southern Asia, Opportunities for Increased Regional Trade and the Role of the Energy Charter Treaty Brussels: Energy Charter Secretariat. [15] Danish, M., Yona, A., and Senjyu, T Explicit Recognition of Afghanistan s Power Distribution Networks Problems and Feasible Suggestions. In Proceedings of TENCON IEEE Region 10 Conference, Bangkok, Thailand. doi: /TENCON [16] Sadiqi, M Basic Design and Cost Optimization of a Hybrid Power System in Rural Communities in Afghanistan. M.Sc. thesis, The Kansas State University. [17] Hassler, S Re-engineering Afghanistan: At What Cost? IEEE Spectrum 48 (10): 1-8. [18] Hallett, M Distributed Power in Afghanistan: The Padisaw Micro-hydro Project. Renewable Energy 34 (12):