Indicators in Dutch economy: Doing more with less

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Marilyn Gilbert
6 years ago
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1 Indicators in Dutch economy: Doing more with less Jurriaan Biesheuvel Seminar on the Role of National Statistical Offices in the production of Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators 8-10 December 2015 Geneva

2 Dutch economy Gateway to Europe Technology (electronic, bio, chemical) After USA largest exporting country of agriculture products (flowers) GDP: $800 billion 17 million inhabitants, GDP per capita: $

Probing economic climate Questionnaires with business related questions Q. How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months?

3 Probing economic climate Questionnaires with business related questions Q. How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? Until 2008: 5 different organizations Similar questions in different questionnaires Varying quality No standard measures, hard to compare data High administrative burden (annoyance at companies) 3

4 Since 2008: Integration Cooperation of 5 organizations One main executor: Statistics Netherlands Stratified sample survey: One questionnaire for all branches adapted to DG ECFIN 1 requirements where necessary Direct results Automation Comparable Reduction of working hours Consistency Reduction of error sensitivity Reduction sample size Reduction administrative burden Longer time series 1. DG ECFIN: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 4

5 Dutch business survey Monthly, quarterly, annually questionnaires Stratification: company size, region, business branch (NACE) Weighted by number of employees region RT R1 R2 R3 R4 S11 branch ST S10 S12 G2 S20 S G1 GT size 5

6 Indirect results Economic Indicators Confidence indicators - Manufacturing industry - Construction - Retail trade - Service sector - Mining and quarrying - Wholesale Job vacancy indicator Index order position Composite Indicator: producer confidence 6

7 Comparison with European indicators Economic Indicators Confidence indicators - Manufacturing industry - Construction - Retail trade - Service sector - Mining and quarrying - Wholesale Job vacancy indicator Index order position DG ECFIN indicator: Economic Sentiment Indicator - Manufacturing industry - Construction - Retail trade - Service sector - Consumers Business climate indicator (Industry: 5 questions) 7

8 Example: confidence indicator Monthly survey for manufacturing industry: 11 questions in total 3 questions used for confidence indicator: Q1. How do you expect your production to develop over the next 3 months? It will... + = Q2. Do you consider the current overall book order to be Q3. Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be...? 8

9 Example: confidence indicator Q1. Q2. Q3. Balance: Total + minus total Seasonal correction Seasonal correction Seasonal correction weight weight weight aggregation confidence indicator for manufacturing industry 9

10 International comparison Confidence indicator manufacturing industry November 2015* France Hungary Netherlands Greece Germany Belgium Europe Balance (%) *Large majority of data was taken before Paris terror attacks at

11 Example: composite indicator Producer confidence Indicator Branch A weight Indicator Branch B weight Indicator Branch C weight aggregation Producer confidence 11

12 Producer confidence as leading indicator % growth Producer Confidence vs GDP IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV ' GDP y-on-y GDP q-on-q producer confidence Producer confidence (%)

13 Leading indicator: Vacancies % growth Q. How do you expect your firm s total employment to change over the next 3 months? Vacancy indicator (%) -10 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Growth of vacancies q-on-q Vacancy indicator

14 Future planning New temporal questions - R&D - innovation Adjust derived indicators completely to DG ECFIN definitions - Economic sentiment indicator - Business climate indicator Further refinement aggregation (district level) Publish statistical uncertainties - include uncertainty seasonal correction bootstrapping 14

15 Conclusions Statistics Netherlands is the main executor of producing statistics of the Dutch economic climate. Economic indicators are extracted from survey data. Confidence and vacancy indicators can be used as leading indicators. 15

16 Dutch business survey Panel Month panel Quarter panel Observation period First 3 weeks of month First 6 weeks of quarter branch Industry Services Manufacturing All commercial business companies Number Sample size of strata Year panel First 6 weeks of 4th quarter All commercial business companies

Over the whole year 2011, GDP increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27, compared with +1.9% and +2.0% respectively in 2010.

Over the whole year 2011, GDP increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27, compared with +1.9% and +2.0% respectively in 2010. 35/2012-6 March 2012 Second estimates for the fourth quarter of Euro area and EU27 down by 0.3% +0.7% and +0.9% respectively compared with the fourth quarter of 2010 decreased by 0.3% in both the euro