EU Steel Market Situation and Challenges

Transcription

1 78th Session of the OECD Steel Committee Paris, May 2015 EU Steel Market Situation and Challenges

2 EU steel-using sectors: gradual further rise activity SWIP: Steel Weighted Industrial Production SWIP growth 2015: 2.2% 2016: 2.7% 2014: 2.2% growth activity : gradual further rise Q base year effect, will limit total 2015 growth Key drivers: low oil price + Euro depreciation Better sentiment levels, particularly at the consumer level Easing access to finance & credit EU investment climate to improve in 2016 Source: EUROFER Source: Haver Analytics

3 EU steel-using sectors: divergence at the sector and country level Sectors Construction rebound to broaden across sectors and countries From a low starting point Robust growth automotive activity Engineering sectors to benefit from recovery EU demand and weak Euro Countries Strong dynamics C-Europe Positive outlook UK, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands France and Italy rather weak in 2015 improving in 2016 Steady performance Germany in almost all sectors back at or above pre-crisis level Source: EUROFER Source: Haver Analytics

4 Construction: recovery to gain strength from Q2 15 Current situation Construction confidence moving sideways in early 2015 Q output probably down on high level in Q Source: European Commission, EUROFER : activity gaining strength Residential activity key driver in 2015 Infrastructure activity to recover from 2016 National + EU initiatives, supported by private funding 2015 growth dragged down by Q1 drop Steady improvement thereafter France and Italy lag in 2015 Solid growth C-Europe, Spain, Germany 2015: +1.5%, 2016: +2.3% Source: Haver Analytics

5 Automotive: favourable market conditions to continue in Current situation Q1 15: passenger car sales +8.6% y/y 2M 15 commercial vehicles +8.5% y/y Car exports: under pressure, slowing demand key export markets Q1 15 automotive sector output: +3% Source: EUROFER Source: Haver Analytics : rather upbeat prospects Positive outlook EU car market in line with rising consumer confidence + spendable income Car exports: obscured by uncertainty Commercial vehicle to benefit from economic recovery EU + lower transport cost 2015: +4.5% growth in output 2016: +3%

6 Steel Market: steady but slow rise demand imports key supply risk Current situation 2014 demand +3.9% 2014: total imports +12%, finished products +19%: flat +15%, long +33% From China: flat +40%, long +172% Domestic deliveries moving sideways EU mills lost market share to imports Stable demand situation early 2015 Finished product imports rose further Source: EUROFER steady but slow rise demand Improving activity steel using sectors Long products demand catching up owing to construction rebound Steel intensity trend less negative Modest stocking up in supply chain due to higher activity end-users Steel demand to rise 2% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016 Imports remain key threat

7 EU steel imports: Imports seen rising further in 2015 EU-28 imports flat and long products imports +17%; Q % Chinese imports Q %, now 30% of total EU imports Domestic deliveries moving sideways EU mills lost market share to imports Share of Chinese exports outside Asia increasing in 000 monthly metric tonnes % variation same period previous year EU-28 imports flat and long products - China Chinese flat steel exports by region in 000 monthly metric tonnes % share of total imports/licences * Surveillance 2 7

8 Key Messages EU domestic steel demand Moderate, gradual recovery EU steel consumption (+2%) but above world growth (+0.5%) Only partial recovery of steel demand in 2015 (150 Mt), return to demand levels by 2020 only (175 Mt) Trade and Market Access Key uncertainty: imports preventing domestic producers from benefiting from the positive demand trend; for domestic industry to recover on the back of gradually improving domestic demand, fair conditions of trade competition need to be enforced timely and effectively Excess Capacity Poor steel demand growth globally exposing worsening excess steel capacities; regions with steel demand growth outperforming worldwide growth concentrate import surges Support for OECD work on excess capacity; particular interest in exit policy measures 8