1.7 Our Package of Measures

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1 We aim to encourage behaviour change in our 40,000 employees and 30,000 students.we are pleased that the bid has such a strong employment / economic development focus and is looking at addressing some of the issues along key commuter routes. Congestion on these routes has a real impact on our business operations Ann O Driscoll, Director, North Bristol Sus Com 1.7 Our Package of Measures Within the three themes there are 10 projects that are mutually supportive both at a thematic level and across WEST as a whole The detail of these projects and their fit within the themes are described below, and shown graphically in Figure WEST builds on the Key Commuter Routes Project secured through the successful Key Component. Implementation commenced in August, we are fully mobilised to deliver as programmed. Key Component works already underway at Hewlett Packard We were delighted to secure LSTF match funding to enable us to improve the cycle storage facilities at our Filton Ave and WISE campuses. We have many cycles stolen each year from these locations. The level of damage and thefts was having a significant detrimental effect on both staff and students perceptions, and consequently the number of people choosing to cycle to College. Kevin Hamblin Principal & Chief Executive Filton College West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 30 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

2 Figure 1.9 Themes and Projects A. Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas 1. Area Travel Plans 2. Key Commuter 2. Key Commuter Routes Routes 3. Business Travel Key Component B. Connected and Thriving Centres 4. Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas WEST OF ENGLAND SUSTAINABLE TRAVEL (WEST) C. Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles 7. Secondary School 8. Work and Skills 5. Rural Hubs and Links 6. Key Centres 9. Universities 10. New Developments 1.8 Thematic Overview Theme A : Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas, aims to reduce peak-hour congestion, especially on major commuter corridors, by encouraging a shift to sustainable modes. It will make it easier for employees to gain access to work; reduce carbon emissions; and increase opportunities for people to be physically active as part of their regular commute There are three projects within this theme: Area Travel Plans, which will focus our effort with employers in three major areas of business growth; Key Commuter Routes, which will encourage modal shift on 11 important corridors; and Business Travel, which will provide electric and low-carbon vehicles for travel during the course of work, addressing the issue that many people currently commute by car because they may need their car while they are at work The Key Commuter Routes project develops work that is already under way on six main corridors as a result of our successful Key Component Bid. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 31

3 1.8.4 Theme B : Connected and Thriving Centres, will support the local economy in our urban areas; improve opportunities for rural residents to gain access to employment, training and education; encourage walking and cycling for local journeys; and ensure that our town and city centres can prosper Throughout the urban areas of Bristol, Bath and Weston-super-Mare there is a considerable amount of employment in non-central locations. For example in Bath 61% of jobs are outside the city centre, rising to 75% for Bristol (2001 Census ONS). Through creating these connections we will maximise the two-way flows on these key commuter corridors further widening access outside key centres and linking skills to jobs There are three projects within this theme: Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas, which will encourage urban residents to walk or cycle to neighbourhood shops and services, rather than driving to more distant locations and to connect people to the key commuter corridors; Rural Hubs and Links, which will offer sustainable travel options for rural residents (especially young people wanting to get to work and college); and Sustainable Travel in Key Centres, which will improve the way public transport, walking and cycling fit together and link the commuter routes to key city and town centre destinations and transport hubs to complete end-to-end journeys Theme C : Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles, recognises that our interventions to change travel behaviour are more likely to be effective if they occur at times of change in people s lives, and focuses effort on influencing travel choice at these life transitions There are four projects within this theme: The Move to Secondary School, which will work with pupils and their parents / carers in Year 6 and Year 7 to reduce car trips to school; Access to Work and Skills, which will work with year olds as they move from secondary school to their first job, training, or further education; Universities, which will transform student travel extending this to work with students before they arrive to study; and New Developments, which will encourage sustainable travel choices by people moving into new major residential developments. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 32 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

4 1.9 How the Package Fits Together There are strong links between the 10 projects in our bid. They concentrate on influencing travel mode for journeys made at peak times of day, whether these are trips to school, college, university or a workplace. We have also looked for opportunities to make geographical links for example, the University of the West of England (UWE), which is a key partner in our Universities project, is located in the North Fringe, where we plan to focus our Area Travel Plan project, and our project on New Developments will have a strong focus in the same geographical area. We envisage that the insights we will gain from the projects on Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles will be valuable to other projects for example, our work on Area Travel Plans, will include activities targeted at employees moving to new work locations The schematic plan in Figure 1.10 shows how the projects interconnect spatially and support end-to-end journeys. Figure 1.10 End-to-end journeys KEY CENTRE UNIVERSITY KEY COMMUTER ROUTE NEW DEVELOPMENT URBAN CENTRE BUSINESS TRAVEL BRISTOL AREA TRAVEL PLAN SCHOOL URBAN CENTRE WESTON KEY CENTRE WORK AND SKILLS KEY COMMUTER ROUTE RURAL HUB KEY COMMUTER ROUTE RURAL HUB BATH KEY CENTRE WORK AND SKILLS 1.10 Spread of Funding Figure 1.11 below shows how the funding of the package is split between the WEST themes. The spend reflects the relative scale of the problems that we face with the majority focused on unblocking the congestion hotspots and stimulating economic growth in our priority areas. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 33

5 Figure 1.11 WEST Cost by Theme (DfT and Local Contribution including Key Component) 15% Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Connected and Thriving Centres 24% Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles 61% Key Component 1.11 Our Ten Projects This section sets out a summary of our ten linked projects. Further details on each of these can be found in the project sheet in Appendix 1.2. Theme A : Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Tackling congestion to get business and our economy moving. Theme A: Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Project 1: Developing Area Travel Plans Our work on area travel plans will focus on three key growth areas that are currently difficult to access by sustainable travel. The Port area stretching from Royal Portbury Docks to Severnside; Bristol Airport; and the North Fringe of Bristol. Together these currently employ more than 90,000 people, a figure which is set to increase by 24,000 by 2030 if the LEP ambition is to be realised Car travel to jobs in these areas has a significant impact on the M4/M5 motorways, the local highway network and the communities through which they travel. If we can re-balance modal split to these key growth areas it will have wider network benefits to commuters across both the West of England and the wider national road network. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 34 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

6 These areas have geographical clusters of employers, or are major employers in their own right. Area travel plans will provide a mechanism to develop site-specific packages to achieve sustainable economic growth and improve access for employees (or managing their need to travel through remote working), while reducing single occupancy car travel. It will also widen the pool of employees available for jobs in these areas The Port area is vitally important economically. We want to further strengthen employer networks and work with them to identify sustainable travel solutions to local issues Bristol Airport includes 46 employers with nearly 3,000 workers and has been collaborating with North Somerset Council to develop its Surface Access Strategy and Travel Plan. Work will continue to build on these two pieces of work, taking into consideration the airports plans for expansion The North Fringe has already developed an Area Travel Plan. This has been developed through the business-led organisation North Bristol Sus Com, representing some 40,000 employees and 30,000 students. We plan to support North Bristol Sus Com in implementing their travel plan and will roll this model out across the other areas. To help ensure the science park reaches its full potential and delivers strong economic activity in the area we are working with our business neighbours to improve the sustainable transport infrastructure in the North of Bristol and to Emersons Green in particular. Bonnie Dean, Chief Executive, Bristol & Bath Science Park and Chair of North Bristol Sus Com The actions we will take through this project are as follows: Develop a network of employer contacts, building on those we already have, to share best practice, identify local constraints to sustainable transport, and implement solutions; West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 35

7 Establish or expand Area Travel Plans for each of the three areas, and offer a tailored package of support to employers; Implement off-site infrastructure measures (e.g. new cycle link to Royal Portbury Dock) and service improvements (e.g. re-route services to North Fringe via Romney Avenue Bus Link) to tackle the barriers to sustainable travel identified by employers and their staff; Provide grants to employers to implement on-site walking and cycling improvements such as cycle parking, lockers and signage; Promote car sharing and encourage the set-up of private car-sharing groups; Work with employers to establish a scooter, electric bike and cycle loan scheme, available to all employees within the areas covered by the Area Travel Plans; Promote and provide information about travel options by bus, rail, walking and cycling to employees, via a sustainable travel roadshow and special events such as workplace sustainable travel challenges; and Ensure that new and prospective employees of organisations in the three targeted areas receive the right information about sustainable access to their new job, from job centres, employment agencies and websites We know that 33% of employees who change job also change their commuting mode (Dargay and Hanly, 2005). This means that effort targeted at employees when they are changing job location is likely to be particularly worthwhile Two important opportunities to do this will come from a large business park at Emersons Green in the Bristol North Fringe, which is due to be occupied during the second half of 2012 and will employ over 6,000 people; and the planned relocation of 2,600 Ministry of Defence (MOD) staff from Bath to Filton Abbey Wood, again in the North Fringe, in the next two years. Theme A: Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Project 2: Key Commuter Routes We know that congestion is still a big issue for our business community, despite progress in recent years. Recent local research found that nearly half (46%) of Bristol businesses consider traffic congestion to be an issue for their business. The same study found that at national level, corporate location and inward investment agencies perceive that Bristol has failed to tackle congestion, and see this as a key weakness for the area. Addressing this perception is an important priority for us, as failure to do so could jeopardise inward investment (Bristol Local Economic Assessment, 2010). West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 36 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

8 In order to tackle this issue, we need to make the area s main commuter corridors work much better. HP are pleased to be working closely with our North Bristol Sus Com partners and neighbours to promote and improve sustainable transport infrastructure in the North Fringe area. We have already seen benefit from previous activities (and) the work we are doing in Bristol is being replicated across other HP sites in the UK. David Callaghan, Hewlett Packard Labs, Deputy Chair of North Bristol Sus Com Through WEST we will continue to strengthen relationships with large employers on the commuter corridors (e.g. Hewlett Packard, Bristol and Bath Science Park), which have been developed through the Key Component, and extend engagement programmes to an additional 25 businesses each year The actions we will take to improve the sustainable transport offer are listed below and shown schematically in Figure 1.10: Introduce a new high quality express commuter bus service on the corridor from Weston-super-Mare to the Bristol North Fringe; Introduce a new high quality orbital bus route linking east Bristol with the Bristol North Fringe employment area supporting the MOD relocation; Upgrade express bus services linking our key centres to improve the offer to the business traveller through Wi-Fi and high quality interiors; Work with bus companies to improve reliability and punctuality on the 11 key corridors through bus priority measures and removal of congestion pinch points ; Roll out further real time bus passenger information building on the system kernel delivered through GBBN; In partnership with First provide new state of the art in-bus information including stop locations and news/information feeds via flat screen displays; Develop continuous routes for pedestrians and cyclists along the 11 commuter corridors, through targeted schemes to tackle missing links ; and ensure comprehensive signing of routes. Routes will be publicised to businesses and residents as they are completed; West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 37

9 Enabling measures to tackle all of the barriers to modal shift will include: Information about bus services and cycle routes, including route maps, bus stopspecific timetables, and advice on practical issues related to cycling. This will be delivered via regular roadshows at main employers along the key corridors; Embracing new technology to provide information through web-based, phone and social media; Incentives to change to buses, such as free bus taster tickets and smartcards (using the South West platform developed through a separate small project through the Fund) to encourage employees to try commuting by bus; Support to get started with cycling, including the offer of a loan bike; a Dr Bike service to get bikes into good working order; a bike buddy service to help employees find a good route to work; and free adult cycle training to gain confidence in commuting by bike; Activities to establish a new social norm of travelling sustainably. Building on the successes of the Sustainable Travel Towns programme to incentivise employees who positively change their travel habits. Theme A: Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Project 3: Business Travel In order to invest in growth, businesses need to continually exploit efficiencies in their operations. Increasing the availability of alternative transport options for business travel will reduce both overheads and carbon, support sustainable growth. The Business Travel project will kick start this process through expansion of the innovative Go-Low scheme and rolling out electric vehicle charging infrastructure to businesses. We are determined to future proof our new development site to ensure we have the electric car charging infrastructure to meet our business and employee needs. We also plan to start looking at electric car fleet vehicles as well. Mark Stewart, Filton General Manager, Airbus West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 38 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

10 We know that the reason some employees of large Bristol-based organisations commute to work by car is because they may need a car for business travel during the day. For example, research at Avon & Wiltshire Partnership NHS Trust (AWP) found that their staff travel 4.2 million miles on business every year. (GoLow Business Plan, April 2011) We intend to tackle this issue by expanding GoLow, a successful pilot project which has been developed by AWP and Bristol City Council. Currently, GoLow provides 25 electric and very low emission cars and 23 electric bikes for AWP and city council staff. These pool vehicles are expected to transfer over 200,000 miles from the grey fleet (employees own vehicles used for business travel) this year. This will significantly reduce business mileage carbon emissions, as well as reducing the need for employees to commute to work by car Our support for GoLow will enable the pilot scheme to be established as an independent community interest company, and extended to other large organisations with high business mileage. Within the period of LSTF funding, it will deliver: A fleet of 75 low emission vehicles, 20 electric cars and 60 electric bikes; and Expansion to cover 10 or more major organisations (e.g. Avon Fire Service; North Bristol NHS Trust) The take up of electric vehicles is currently held back by the availability of charging infrastructure. Two thirds of motorists say they would be more likely to buy an electric vehicle if charging posts were readily available at the roadside and in car parks across the UK (Elektromotive survey, June 2011). We will encourage businesses to use electric vehicles for business travel by installing 121 charging points in their premises across the West of England. These will be complemented by the installation of 31 charging points at public car parks and Park & Ride sites. The charging points will be distributed free to businesses with travel plans that agree to match fund other sustainable transport measures. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 39

11 Figure 1.10 Actions to Take to Improve Sustainable Transport Key Commuter Routes - Infrastructure & Measures 1. New express service between Weston and Bristol / North Fringe. High quality coaches to include WiFi access, toilets, drinks facilities etc. 2. Demand Responsive Commuter Service linking rural communities to GBBN corridors. Community Transport Scheme focussed on access to employment and training. 3. As above 4. Market led commuter route/extension to GBBN route between Portishead and Bristol. Portishead to Bristol Cycle Route, linking Royal Portbury dock and villages. 5. Bus Punctuality Improvement Measures at five seperate locations across the North Fringe. 6. Yate Spur - New Cycle/Pedestrian Route linking Yate to the North Fringe and Bristol. 7. New Orbital commuter service, high frequency, limited stop service linking Emersons Green employment area to the North Fringe. 8. Upgrading X39 Bath-Bristol express vehicles with high quality interior, including flat screen displays, leather seats and wi-fi. 9. Bus Priority Measures along the A4 Bath. 10. Batheaston to Bath Spa University shared use path via NCN4, plus local connections. 1 ï Weston- super-mare 11. Maintenance of 175 Bath to Peasedown St John service. 12. Pump priming additional 379 Midsomer Norton to Bristol services. 13. Bus infrastructure enhancements on 24/25 service. Cycle enhancements East St to Bedminster Down Road incl. Parson St Gyratory. 14. Gateway Approach to Clifton Suspension Bridge. 15. Cycle and pedestrian facilities for key movements to Cribbs Causeway (Passage Road). 16. Bristol to Bath Railway Path enhanced links into central area. On Vehicle Displays - First to provide 50% match funding to install 100 new on vehicle display. M5 Portishead ïæ 4 2 A369 A370 ï 2 Cribbs Causeway 3 M5 ï æ 15 æ 14 æ 14 ïæ 13 A38 A38 A38 A38 A38 A38 A38 A38 A38 Aztec West A38 ï 1 Bristol æ 16 ï 12 A37 A37 A37 A37 A37 A37 A37 A37 A37 North Fringe ï A A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A4 A432 A432 A432 A432 A432 A432 A432 A432 A432 Keynsham 5 ï7 Yate SPark 3 ï 8 A367 A367 A367 A367 A367 A367 A367 A367 A367 æ æ 6 9 ï ï 11 6 Key 6 ï æ ï 6 æ 10 Bath Engagement with Employers Marketing/Promotion On-Vehicle Displays Bus Service Improvement Measures Cycle Route Enhancements Pedestrian Route Enhancements Demand Responsive/ Community Transport Improvements 10 A362 Midsomer Norton Radstock Crown copyright and database rights 2011 Ordnance Survey

12 Theme B : Connected and Thriving Centres Completing end-to-end journeys Theme B : Connected and Thriving Centres Project 4 : Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas Evidence from the Sustainable Travel Towns showed that some behaviour change programmes can result in destination switching (replacing a medium-length car trip with a shorter trip by foot, bike or bus). This may particularly happen if the behaviour change programme provides information about local neighbourhood services (Department for Transport, 2010) This project will encourage urban residents to make more use of local shops and services, and encourage a switch from medium-length car trips to shorter trips by foot or bike to these local shopping destinations. This will stimulate local economic activity and will also reduce carbon emissions It is not just about short distance trips. We will connect from people s front doors to end destinations via the key commuter routes. This includes access to bus/rail, local cycling routes and the pedestrian environment, either direct to end locations or to public transport interchange points. It will also support and strengthen access to jobs outside key centres. Our approach is shown schematically in Figure We will target effort at 25 communities in the main urban areas. Actions will include: Physical measures to enhance priority for pedestrians and cyclists (e.g. reduced traffic speeds, pedestrian crossings, wider pavements); Street scene enhancements to make local shopping areas on main roads more attractive places to shop (e.g. kerb buildouts; planters); Promotional campaigns to encourage residents to: o o Make greater use of local shops and services (e.g. development of local community guides with information about neighbourhood facilities; Shop Local loyalty scheme); and Use low-carbon travel on key commuter routes. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 41

13 Car clubs to continue to create opportunities for reduced car ownership and use; Events and activities to encourage walking and cycling and greater involvement in the local neighbourhood (e.g. volunteer-run walking groups; community cycling / walking /e-centre hubs in disused local shop units; community street events) We will work with traders associations and local communities to create bottom up solutions by establishing a Community and Active Neighbourhood Fund. There is strong support from the Neighbourhood Partnerships (Bristol) and Priority Neighbourhoods (South Gloucestershire) with whom we will work to deliver this project. Theme B: Connected and Thriving Centres Project 5: Rural Hubs and Links A significant proportion of the West of England is rural. The 2001 census indicated that approximately 160,000 people live in the 177 rural parishes within the West of England. Some 72% of journeys to work in rural areas are made by car and by their nature these are often more lengthy journeys contributing to higher levels of CO 2 emissions and congestion Clusters of unemployment also exist within rural communities in the area and transport has been highlighted as a real barrier to accessing employment. The Job Centre Plus in the area is actively looking to address these issues, and access to training particularly for young people within rural areas, is also a focus for WEST (see also Access to Work and Skills) The Rural Hubs and Links project builds on the Key Commuter Routes project by engaging with local communities and targeting the start point of commuter journeys. We will work with 42 rural communities and key stakeholders to understand their concerns and barriers to accessing training and employment and to travelling sustainably, focusing on: Communities with pre-existing concerns and where evidence has shown clusters of unemployment due to transport issues; and Communities that are shown by market research to be more open to incentives to try sustainable modes of transport. 42 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

14 The project will include: Working with or establishing a village agent as a central point of contact; Personalised travel planning for those identified through training providers, job centres or employers as having difficulty accessing training or employment; Extensive promotion including incorporating transport information into village website / newsletter and promotion at existing community events through the sustainable travel roadshows; Working with communities / employers to look at how community transport can be utilised to provide additional services; Cycle loan scheme provided by local cycle shops; Public transport taster tickets in partnership with bus operators (i.e. one month s free travel to those starting new employment); and Empowering local communities in the above activities by establishing a Community and Active Neighbourhood Fund which can be used to provide minor scheme improvements or to kick start community transport projects to improve access and aid sustainable travel WEST will build links between key stakeholders and local communities to address real and perceived transport barriers. We will establish partnerships and enable local communities to continue the project in the longer term once funding ceases. The local authorities will continue to provide ongoing information and advice. Theme B: Connected and Thriving Centres Project 6: Sustainable Travel in Key Centres Our city and town centres owe their existence to being places to do business. Bristol, Bath and Weston-super-Mare are very different places, but all three require a high quality sustainable transport offer in order to create confidence in them as great places to locate a business, and great places for shopping, leisure and tourism. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 43

15 Our proposed measures will improve walking, cycling, public transport and interchange facilities. This will complement ongoing public realm enhancements and allow more people to complete end-to-end sustainable transport journeys The package of measures includes: Pedestrian and way finding improvements in the centres of Bath, Bristol and Weston-super- Mare. In Bath, we will improve pedestrian links and signage to city centre redevelopment sites by upgrading the main east-west pedestrian route through the city centre between Orange Grove and Kingsmead Square via Cheap Street and Westgate Street. In Bristol, improving connectivity across and within the inner ring road (see Figure 1.13) and missing links to improve access to the Enterprise Zone. In Weston-super-Mare, measures will support the redevelopment of Dolphin Square, a 2.6 hectare town centre site with poor connections to the main high street and railway station, and promote development of vacant retail/business units through improved connectivity and public realm improvements (see Figure 1.14). Cycling interventions across the three centres will fill the gaps in the network and improve cycle parking. 44 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

16 Figure 1.13 Improving Connectivity across and within Bristol s Inner Circuit Road Local Sustainable Transport Fund Application 45

17 Figure 1.14 Key Centres in Weston-super-Mare Background Regeneration of the Dolphin Square area of Weston Town Centre has commenced with the potential to provide over 400 jobs. Challenges: The area around the new development has a higher than average number of vacant premises for the town centre and the quality of the retail units in the area is generally poor with no national chains; Legibility for pedestrians, public transport users and drivers is poor; There is a lack of car park signage, poor visual links and inadequate pavement width to encourage ease of movement; There has been significant interest in this site from leisure, restaurant and hotel operators but not from retailers; and Poor infrastructure surrounding the site and poor pedestrian connectivity has been cited as a significant issue for those looking to locate here. The future This exciting scheme is pivotal to unlocking the full potential of the site, maximising the number of jobs created as well as revitalising the existing low grade retail / business units. Proposals include widening the pavement areas, simplifying crossing facilities and enhancing the public realm for surrounding retail / business units. Bus stops will be relocated to allow a stronger connection between the development and the main retail core and pedestrian links to the railway station will be strengthened. To compliment this a parking guidance system will be provided to relieve traffic congestion in the area and direct visitors to currently under-used car parks. The developers, McLaren Life, are proactive and want to work with us to upgrade the surrounding area. Significant S106 funding is available and has been included as match funding to undertake the works. 46 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

18 Public transport interchanges In Bath and Bristol, we will improve the information available to visitors arriving at rail, bus and coach stations, to make it easier to continue their journey. Continuing expansion of the Bristol and Bath freight consolidation centre to cover new areas and new markets using electric delivery vehicles to reduce HGV trips within both cities, with benefits in terms of congestion, carbon, noise, and danger. This includes potential consolidation of NHS deliveries. A parking guidance system will be installed in Weston-super-Mare to relieve town centre congestion and maximise the benefit of planned public realm improvements. Theme C : Transitions to a Low-Carbon Lifestyle Training, skills and securing long term benefits Theme C: Transitions to a Low-Carbon Lifestyle Project 7: The Move to Secondary School This project will target children and their carers in the build up to, and after, the transition from Primary to Secondary School, in order to encourage them to use sustainable modes for the journey to their new school Through this we seek to tackle commute-time traffic congestion, especially around the morning peak, and reduce the impact of many short car trips generated by the school journey. Substituting some of these trips with sustainable travel modes will reduce congestion and so help promote economic growth. Reductions in car trips on the network are around 10% during school holidays but the decongestion benefits far exceed this. As Figure 1.14 illustrates, when targeting a congested network, traffic reduction (x) can deliver significant congestion benefits (b) This project will work with 75 (of 351) Primary and 15 (of 78) Secondary schools. At the primary schools, we will: Develop a programme of social marketing-led materials to encourage pupils and their carers to consider sustainable travel options; Deploy these materials in practical sessions on travel behaviour and its impact; West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 47

19 Figure 1.15 Speed Flow Curve b Congestion a x Traffic levels x Provide pupils with personalised journey plans for the trip between home and their chosen secondary school At secondary schools, we will secure the transition through: A buddying programme to provide peer support for sustainable travel; Advice to the school on maximising the impact of their school travel plan; Level 3 bikeability training, to ensure pupils are confident and capable cyclists on their route to school; Self-sustaining Bike Clubs/Sustainable Travel programmes with links to Healthy Schools initiatives to 48 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

20 increase physical activity; Off-site safer routes measures, developed in partnership with schools and local communities; Grants for projects to boost walking and cycling, based on successful initiatives from Cycling City. Theme C: Transitions to a Low-Carbon Lifestyle Project 8: Access to Work and Skills Another key transition point in life is the move from Secondary School into work, training or Further Education (FE). High levels of youth unemployment and a decrease in the numbers attending FE have been recognised as an issue nationally, and lack of transport is identified as a significant barrier. Nationally youth unemployment is the highest since comparable records began 19 years ago and exceeds one million people (ONS, 2011). In some areas locally up to 35% of the Job Seekers Allowance claimants are between Similarly access to training is highlighted as an issue in some areas. We work closely with Weston College and...the access to skills/ employment scheme...will help these young people to access the airport site. Alan Davies, Planning and Environment Director, Bristol Airport This project will work with year olds in 10 secondary schools, 5 FE colleges, Job Centre Plus and with employers to identify the key transport challenges faced by this age group, including knowledge of existing provision, and the real and perceived barriers to access to jobs and training The project will involve: An Access to Skills and Work programme, which will use personal travel planning to provide young people with information and incentives to travel sustainably to their workplace, training or FE college; Work with employers and training providers to identify small scale transport improvements and on-site facilities to improve sustainable access to their site; Developing a financially sustainable model to operate a cycle loan scheme targeted at those starting employment, training or FE; and West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 49

21 Working with First and other bus operators to offer discounted travel for people aged This will help ingrain the habit of bus use at this key life stage. This will become self-sustaining as demand grows, so that it will become part of their commercial offer. Theme C: Transitions to a Low-Carbon Lifestyle Project 9: Universities Bristol and Bath have 4 universities and huge transient populations (67,000 students) presenting the opportunity to get many young people using cycles and buses while they are at University in our cities and engendering a habit that will stay with them for life. We plan to achieve this through: A project with the University of the West of England (UWE) and Bristol University to engage students in considering travel options and sustainable living at three transition points in their student life: prior to arrival; and when making choices about where to live in 2nd and 3rd years. Once developed, this engagement programme will be rolled out to Bath and Bath Spa Universities; Providing enhanced information and incentives for public transport and cycle use before and immediately after students arrive at university, through prearrival and early arrival events (e.g. sixth form student Taster Days and Freshers Fairs); Using new media (e.g. smartphone apps) to disseminate public transport information; Extending the existing six UWE Wessex Red bus services, to include major employers in the North Fringe and Bristol University. This will increase patronage and ensure the services become commercially viable; Improving the cycling offer at Bristol, Bath and Bath Spa Universities through additional cycle parking; an expanded bike maintenance programme; cheap 12 month bike loan scheme for students; and social cycling events / cycle challenges to encourage students to give cycling a go; Promotion of car clubs and car sharing, coupled with controls on student parking. Theme C: Transitions to a Low-Carbon Lifestyle Project 10: New Developments This project will work with developers to encourage a shift to sustainable travel when people move house. We know that a person who moves house is twice as likely to change mode of transport for their commute over the next year as one who does not move house - 28% change amongst movers, as compared to 14% 50 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

22 amongst non-movers. (Dargay and Hanly 2005). This gives an opportunity to prompt change to sustainable modes. Research at UWE (Stanbridge et al. 2004) found that commute mode seems to be considered before people move house, whereas travel mode for other journeys (e.g. to shops, leisure facilities) is considered shortly after moving in. We will apply these insights in our project The project will begin with a pilot at two new development sites Charlton Hayes and Cheswick, and will be rolled out to other locations. These new developments located in the North Fringe will be a special focus, in order to prevent exacerbation of the congestion in this area and reduce the detrimental effect this would have on the major employers located nearby The schemes will build on the transport improvements that have been secured as part of planning consents for recent developments and will demonstrate the significant benefits of this marginal investment in securing the transition to low carbon travel choices The project will work with developers to: Provide travel information and incentives for new occupiers. Provide Travel Pack information on public transport, cycle / pedestrian maps combined with incentives such as taster tickets and personalised travel planning. These will be site-specific and tailored to support informed choices. Critically information will be targeted to influence the decision to buy; and Ensure we learn from this and work with further developers to design in such a way as to encourage sustainable travel: e.g. by providing real time passenger information at bus stops on site; creating layouts that are pedestrian and cycle-friendly; encouraging unbundling of parking spaces and homes. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 51

23 1.12 Conclusion We believe this business case sets out a compelling case to invest in WEST: Our circumstances provide the unique opportunity to stimulate sustainable economic growth and take forward carbon reduction; The foundations of our bid are firmly grounded in addressing the problems we face; We have taken care to select measures that make a difference individually and provide combined benefits that exceed the sum of the parts; Our three themes get to the heart of the problem faced by business through tackling congestion to growth areas and linking people with training and jobs; We have a impressive array of more than 45 partners fully committed to bringing funding and delivering WEST both up to and beyond 2015/16; Our bid offers high value for money with a BCR of 6.21; and We have the full support of the Local Enterprise Partnership and wider business community. Bath Chamber of Commerce and Initiative...represent over 300 businesses, all of whom are keen to see improvements to transport which will play a vital part in helping to create an environment in which our economy can grow. Ian Bell, Executive Director Appendices Appendix 1.1 Project Summary Sheets Appendix 1.2 Early Assessment and Sifting Tool (EAST) 52 Chapter 1 : Strategic Case

24 Economic Case Contents 2.1 Introduction : our approach Summary of principal benefits Modelling and appraisal - background Economic appraisal results Environmental appraisal results Social appraisal results Public accounts appraisal results Social and Distributional Impacts Sensitivity tests Summary of the appraisal work Figures 2.1 Scheme impact assumptions (with evidence) Cost Inflation Assumptions TEE table Regeneration Areas Air Quality Management Areas Public Accounts Table Sensitivity Tests Results Table of Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits Appraisal Summary Table Appendices 2.1 Value for Money Report 2.2 Forecasting Report

25 2. Economic Case 2.1 Introduction: our approach The Economic Case assesses our WEST package to identify its impacts and demonstrate value for money. For the purposes of this case, WEST refers to the large project excluding the Key Component. The preparation of the Case follows WebTAG guidance (April 2011) and has used existing modelling tools available across the West of England which have previously been used in support of the 3rd Joint Local Transport Plan (JLTP3) and most recently been used in support of the Best and Final Bid (BAFB) submissions for five major schemes in September In presenting the Economic Case, we have given extended consideration to the two key objectives for the LSTF supporting economic growth and reducing carbon, as well as the more local and detailed appraisal requirements of the full Appraisal Summary Table The work undertaken to provide evidence to support this case is in accordance with the Proposed Appraisal Methodology Technical Note, 19 October 2011, previously supplied to the DfT. The Value for Money Report provided in Appendix 2.1 sets out further, more detailed technical aspects of the Economic Case and hence is referenced throughout. Since the publication of Supplementary Guidance for Local Authorities Shortlisted for Large Projects in September 2011, further advice has also been provided, particularly stipulating economic case requirements We have also received a response to the WEST appraisal methodology Technical Note and subsequent questions. DfT has recognised that the time available for the appraisal was limited, and hence asked for a proportionate business case. Thus, this chapter of the report has sought to deliver the most comprehensive economic case within the available time Our appraisal and subsequent economic analysis represents a conservative assessment of the likely benefits of WEST. In adopting our approach to the economic analysis, using existing tools, the modelling work undertaken has concentrated on the Bristol area. This means that benefits in the rest of the West of England have not been fully reflected in the analysis. Also we have undertaken analysis using other assessment tools which has not been included in the headline benefit cost ratio Throughout our appraisal, care has been taken to ensure that when making assumptions about scheme impacts, the evidence of similar types of schemes has been correctly applied. The appraisal work undertaken to support this case has focused on the quantification of impacts where evidence is available and demonstrable. That is, this appraisal has concentrated on the impacts where robust data was available for analysis and interpretation. The appraisal work has also considered other relevant effects in a qualitative way to provide a balanced appraisal. The qualitative analysis has drawn upon WebTAG guidance to indicate areas of interest of the appraisal topic. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 55

26 2.1.7 The appraisal work summarised in this Case is in line with the Appraisal Summary Table requirements, with the following being provided in sections 2.2 to 2.9: Summary of principal benefits; Modelling and appraisal approach; Economic appraisal results; Environmental appraisal results; Social appraisal results; Public accounts appraisal results; Summary of the appraisal work; and Sensitivity tests. 2.2 Summary of principal benefits In the context of the WebTAG appraisal framework for this business case, the major driver of economic benefit is anticipated to be traffic reduction leading to decongestion and savings in journey times for drivers. Most traffic reduction will be achieved as a result of: Investment in walking and cycling promotion and schemes, providing an alternative to driving for shorter trips; New and improved bus services; Investment in the local infrastructure to support bus services, and work with local bus operators to improve the attractiveness of bus services, providing an increase in public transport use for longer trips on main radial routes; Development of alternatives to conventional car travel (such as low-carbon vehicles for business use, car clubs, car sharing and community transport services) for longer distance journeys where bus travel is not viable; Remote working, which will result in some trips not being made at all; and Expansion of the freight consolidation scheme in Bristol and Bath, which will lead to a reduction in freight traffic A further benefit is realised as a result of the reduction in short distance car trips and mode transfer of longer distance trips to public transport. The highway network is freed-up for those journeys for which it is more difficult to provide a viable alternative. With greater reliability and the ability to route in the optimum way, the network will operate with greater efficiency resulting in reduced congestion. 56 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

27 2.2.3 We also anticipate benefits in relation to greenhouse gas emissions; air quality; physical activity and road safety, which are described in more detail below. 2.3 Modelling and appraisal - background Modelling Background We are fortunate to be in a position in which there is a WebTAG compliant transport model available to assess the impacts of the WEST scheme. In the DfT LSTF guidance, whilst it was not stipulated that a transport model based methodology was essential, DfT has presumed that promoters will use the TUBA program. Thus, as the usual method of inputting transport data to TUBA is through the outputs of transport models, we have chosen to make use of modelling tools available We have chosen to make use of the existing G-BATS3 model that has recently been used to support BAFB submission for Major Schemes. We anticipate that the use of this robust tool provides confidence to the DfT that the scheme costs and benefits have been correctly accounted for. This approach has been shared with the DfT in the Project Methodology Technical Note dated 30 September The DfT will be familiar with the modelling framework used, as it has supported the recent NFHP Major Scheme BAFB in September The model has been reviewed by the department as part of the Major Scheme Bid submission and the more recent BAFB process. The model network and matrices are the latest versions of the model, using the same information as reported to the DfT The G-BATS3 modelling work underpins, for those topic areas where it can be used, the technical aspects of the appraisal work. The Do Minimum G-BATS-3 scenario developed for the NFHP major scheme has been used as the staring point for the modelling assessment. This Do Minimum run has had the Key Component measures added to it thereby creating a Do Minimum Scenario to assess WEST Our approach to the quantification of benefits has concentrated on the Bristol area. This model does not cover the measures proposed for the Bath area and the smaller towns such as Keynsham, Radstock and Midsomer Norton. However, because the costs have been calculated on a scheme by scheme basis, they have not been divided into those within the model area and those outside. Indeed, the longer distance corridor schemes fall both within and outside the model area. Hence, the model results represent a conservative approach in two ways. Firstly through not accounting for all the benefits that will accrue for the schemes and secondly by accounting for more cost than the schemes within the model area would take to implement The G-BATS3 model contains TEMPRO 6.2 growth assumptions and has been refined to address comments made by the DfT. The modelling work has been undertaken for two time horizons, 2016 (when the scheme has been implemented), and A revised forecast report has been prepared and is provided in Appendix 2.2. The West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 57

28 forecast report includes details about the evidence of impacts of the schemes, used to create the forecast scenarios Many of the documents requested as part of the modelling and appraisal checklist have already been submitted to the DfT, although they have been resubmitted in the interests of completeness Input Assumptions into the Model The Do Minimum scenario for the WEST appraisal is derived from the NFHP Do Minimum and has been adjusted to include the Key Component measures. A Do Something scenario was developed from the Do Minimum scenario broadly following the methodology as set out in the Project Methodology Technical Note dated 30 September 2011, with some differences as follows: the Core Scenario Do Minimum network includes the Ashton Vale Temple Meads (AVTM) major scheme, as included in the NFHP BAFB submission, as this Do Minimum scenario was readily available without requiring additional work PT model assignments have not been undertaken for the WEST assessment, so the results presented do not include travel time savings for bus passengers due to reduced highway network congestion levels TUBA results have not been adjusted to reflect lower GHG emissions from increased use of electric vehicles, so the carbon benefits would be higher if this adjustment was taken into account The approach for modelling the effects of the WEST measures is proposed to be through a set of highway matrix adjustments, based on a review of available evidence to justify the reductions made. The resulting highway and matrices will be re-assigned to obtain model results. Hence the mode shift impacts (away from car) of the WEST measures will be reflected in the matrix adjustments rather than via the demand model In assessing the likely impact of WEST and hence what adjustments to the trip matrices would be appropriate we have considered a range of national and local data to justify the assumptions we have made. These assumptions are shown in Figure 2.1. Further details are available in the Forecasting Report in Appendix In more detail: The Sustainable Travel Towns Demonstrations work estimated that a package of smarter choices could reduce car trip distance by residents by 5-7% and generate area-wide traffic reductions of some 2%; 58 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

29 Figure 2.1 Scheme impact assumptions (with evidence) Scheme Type Cycling / walking schemes Information measures Public Transport Improvements Car clubs Scheme Impact assumptions 10 per person (2008 prices) to achieve 4% increase in cycling / 1.7% walking 40 to remove 1000 vehicle km s (Nov 2009 prices) 5% increase in PT trips / 0.5% decrease in car trips with total scheme cost 70 million (2008 prices) A car club vehicle removes 20 private cars. Each Car club member drives around 5000 miles less than a car owner. This amounts to a saving of 100,000 miles per car club vehicle. Source Document Cycling demonstration Towns Sloman et al, 2009 and The Effects of Smarter Choices Programmes in the Sustainable Travel Towns, 2010 The Effects of Smarter Choices Programmes in the Sustainable Travel Towns, 2010 Greater Bristol Bus Network MSBC, Update to Forecasting Report Soft Measures-Hard Facts, 2011 The cycling demonstration towns work estimated that there was an average 27% increase in cycling over the period 2005 to 2009 in the demonstration towns covered; and Bristol and South Gloucestershire s own experience has shown that a 28% increase in cycle activity on key routes included in Cycling City programme and an overall increase of some 60% in cycling in the central areas between 2002 and Modelled impact on traffic and congestion As a result of the changes to the trip matrices to reflect WEST, the network impacts and congestion shown by the model are as follows: Vehicle trips and mileage across the whole of the West of England area are both reduced by an average of 3%; and The congestion index (mins/km) for the whole area reduced by 12%. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 59

30 Overall these levels of traffic reduction, at around 3%, are in line with the Sustainable Travel Town s results of some 2% areawide reductions. However, the effects are estimated to vary across the region with the greatest benefits found in areas where the road network is currently over capacity such as the North Fringe TUBA appraisal background The cost information included in the TUBA model is shown in Figure Maintenance costs of 4% per annum have been applied for the built environment items. In addition it has been assumed that these assets would be renewed every twenty years In the economic appraisal only the real cost increases are assumed, with the underlying assumption that general inflation is 2.5% p.a., excepting 2011, where it is forecast to be 4.7% and , where it is forecast as 3.3% (Source: Forecast for the UK Economy, HM Treasury) The real capital cost increases assumed will be 2.0% for all years until 2011, -0.2% for 2011; 1.2% for the years ; 1.5% between 2014 and 2021; and 1.0% for years until Operating increases are assumed to be 50% of these rates. These overall capital inflation rates are at the lower end of recently observed ranges, with a combined rate ranging between -0.2% and 4.5% up to 2014; 4.0% between 2014 and 2021; and then 3.5% between 2021 and Figure 2.2 Cost Inflation Assumptions Time Period RPI Real Cost Inflation Combined Inflation % 2.00% 4.50% % -0.20% 4.50% % 1.20% 4.50% % 1.50% 4.00% % 1.00% 3.50% 60 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

31 The optimism bias applied in the TUBA model is 44%, except for the technology related items at 200%, this resulted in an overall level of 47% The associated Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) resulted in a mean risk value of 4,824,129 (P50) In addition to the development of the central case, the following sensitivity scenarios have been developed: 1. Central Case 2. Low and High growth scenario tests 3. Reduced impacts sensitivity tests 4. With North Fringe and South Bristol Link major schemes 2.4 Economic appraisal results The economic appraisal of WEST has been undertaken using the G-BATS3 and associated TUBA work to calculate the transport user benefits. The reliability impact of WEST has have also been calculated in line with WebTAG. In addition, a qualitative assessment of the regeneration and wider impacts has been made Business users and transport providers The benefits to business users and transport providers are shown in Figure 2.3. The Present Value of transport economic efficiency for business users and transport providers is m (2002 values) Reliability Impacts on Business Users The scheme provides reliability impacts, as the lower levels of congestion mean that there is less variation in journey times through the busiest parts of the network. The reliability impacts have been calculated using generic urban parameters. The reliability benefits of the WEST scheme for business users is 8.384m (NPV 2002 prices) Regeneration and Wider Impacts WEST will support increased labour market efficiency by improving access to key employment sites across the area in the three targeted Travel Plan areas, on the 11 commuter corridors and three key centres. WEST will also support local economic activity by enhancing access to local employment and other essential services (including retail and leisure facilities) Figure 2.4 summarises the links between the regeneration area and WEST components. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 61

32 Figure 2.3 TEE table Non-business: Commuting ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time 183, , Vehicle operating costs 106, ,181 User charges During Construction & Maintenance NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: COMMUTING 289, , Non-business: Other ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time Vehicle operating costs 0 0 User charges During Construction & Maintenance NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: OTHER Business User benefits Goods Vehicles Business Cars & LGVs Passengers Freight Passengers Travel time 179,751 65, , Vehicle operating costs 14,480 8,034 6,445 User charges During Construction & Maintenance Subtotal 194,261 74, , Private sector provider impacts Passengers Freight Passengers Revenue Operating costs Investment costs Grant/subsidy Subtotal Other business impacts Developer contributions NET BUSINESS IMPACT 185,806 TOTAL Present Value of Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 475,078 Notes: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values, in 2002 prices and values

33 Figure 2.4 Regeneration Areas Area Regeneration Supporting WEST component Weston-super- Mare Improve retail offer in town centre and unlocking full value of regeneration sites and maximising the number of jobs created Public realm scheme, parking guidance, pedestrian/cycle route, links between town centre and railway station North Somerset Employment issue for residents of rural areas, and young people Rural Hubs and Links schemes, access to Work and Skills schemes. Bath Western Riverside / City Centre Pedestrian/cycle schemes linking onto NCN4 South Gloucestershire 6 Priority Neighbourhoods Connected and Thriving Centres South Bristol Hengrove Park Enhanced public transport Bristol City City Centre, South Bristol, Inner East Bristol, Enterprise Zone Cycle schemes building on those implemented as part of Cycling City 2.5 Environmental appraisal results Air Quality Large parts of the West of England suffer poor air quality and there are Air Quality Management Areas declared for Bath, Keynsham, Staple Hill, Kingswood, Cribb s Causeway and over much of Bristol s urban area, as shown in Figure 2.5, and affects in total over 100,000 people WEST will increase the use of more sustainable modes of transport, notably cycling and walking, which will provide a reduction in emissions from transport JLTP3 noted that the large-scale application of smarter choices would lead to modal shift away from private car use and consequent improvement of air quality. This includes raising awareness of air quality issues, providing information, particularly to those sensitive to poor air quality, moving to the use of low emission vehicles, and West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 63

34 Figure 2.5 Air Quality Management Areas widespread behaviour change. The additional investment delivered through WEST will enhance this further Greenhouse Gases WEST results in a greenhouse gases benefit of m (NPV 2002 prices). This is a result of a saving of 1626 million tonnes of CO 2 across the 60 year assessment period JLTP3 recognised that the most significant potential impact in relation to climate change is to help alter travel patterns and thus emissions of CO 2 from transport. These emissions may contribute to climate change when considered cumulatively with other sources of greenhouse gas emissions, both natural and human-induced Landscape, Townscape and Heritage of Historic resources The scheme has a number of components that will effect the surrounding landscape, townscape and historic sites. In the majority of instances WEST measures have not been designed to a level of detail to enable this effect to be appraised. However within West of England there is considerable experience delivering similar schemes, and of these having a beneficial impact. This is explored in detail in the Value for Money report, which concludes that overall landscape, townscape and historic resources impacts will be at least neutral, with an ambition to provide an overall improvement. 64 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

35 2.6 Social appraisal results The social appraisal of WEST includes the calculation of commuting and other user benefits, and reliability impacts. The Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT), developed by the World Health Organisation, has been used to assess the physical activity impact. An assessment of the accident impact has been made using COBA calculations. This section also reports the impacts of WEST on journey quality, security, access to services, severance and affordability where scheme details are known Commuting and Other users The benefits to commuting and other users are shown in Figure 2.3. The Present Value of transport economic efficiency for business users and transport providers is m (2002 values) The TEE table records zero benefit to nonbusiness other users as a result of the user-classes assigned in the highway model. While the demand model and public transport model have represented commute and other trips separately, the highway assignment has combined these purposes. The user-classes included in the highway assignment were: Car (employer s business); LGV; OGV; Car (non-employer s business, low income); Car (non-employer s business, medium income); and Car (non-employer s business, high income). Therefore all commute and other highway user benefits have been included under the Commute category of the TEE West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 65

36 table. The non-employer s business car mode uses weighted average commute and other parameters in the TUBA process Reliability impact on Commuting and Other users The reliability benefits of the WEST scheme for commuters and other users is 8.988m (NPV 2002 prices) Physical activity HEAT The HEAT is an internationally validated tool recognised by DfT. As part of WEST we have sought to utilise HEAT by giving examples in the bid document from past schemes. Greater levels of physical activity, through increased cycling and walking will improve health, reduce sickness levels and increase workforce productivity The elements of our bid that are designed to encourage cycling and walking will deliver high value for money in terms of their effect on physical activity and health. Our approach is based on that adopted in Cycling City (and before that, the Cycling Demonstration Towns), where these types of schemes were found to offer a health benefit of 2.59 for each 1 invested, in terms of decreased mortality alone (DfT / Cycling England, 2009). This is principally because active travel substantially reduces the risk of ill-health and disease, not least cardio-vascular disease, the number one cause of premature death in England. Moreover, active travel is recognised as a key means by which people can reduce their risk of early entry into the health care system since diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, stroke as well as obesity are largely avoidable outcomes of lifestyle choices There are also important mental health benefits derived from a transport environment which causes less noise and stress, and more physically active lives as the latter is an important means to stress reduction. All road users benefit from roads that have higher levels of walking and cycling since these are indicative of slower speeds and higher levels of social interaction and social capital, causally linked to less illness and premature death. In addition, it is well recognised that physical activity has the greatest positive long-term effect on mood and risk of depression than any other interventions including pharmacological The HEAT work has produced a benefit to cost ratio associated with health improvements from walking measures as 5.71, and a benefit to cost ratio associated with health improvements from cycling measures as The calculations associated with these figures are shown in the Value for Money report along with sensitivity tests. This benefit has not been included in the final BCR but is noted on the AST table Journey quality WEST measures that include enhancements to walking and cycling routes, will generate journey quality impacts. 66 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

37 Improvements to cycle routes has been a key theme in the West of England, for example, the Yate Spur. This is a key cycle link that has been completed thereby providing a link to the Bristol to Bath Railway Path from Yate which is one of our key commuter routes Contra flow cycle scheme in Bath city centre, between Orange Grove and Kingsmead Square will improve the functionality of cycling in Bath and improve journey quality. This scheme component has not been fully appraised, as the scheme component details are not fully worked up. However the likely effect will be slight beneficial to pedestrians and cyclists With both the cycle schemes, the effect on vehicular uses cannot be assessed, however the schemes could result in a negative impact to these users as there may be an increase in the number of times motorists are required to give way to pedestrians/cyclists. Hence overall all it is considered that WEST will have a neutral effect on journey quality It is proposed to improve public transport with the introduction of an express commuter coach service between Weston and the North Fringe will provide high West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 67

38 class facilities including WiFi access, toilets, drinks machines to provide a quality service and be competitive with the car. Also, demand-responsive commuter services will increase connectivity for individuals and reduce more lengthy commuter trips Accidents Changes in car driver / passenger casualties have been calculated using COBA calculations. The model developed for the NFHP BAFB work has been used for this assessment The scheme will reduce the number of personal injury accidents from the 2016 Do Minimum scenario as follows: Serious Injury reductions = 5 per annum Slight Injury reductions = 58 per annum This results in a saving of mill. The savings in car accidents are partially offset by potential increases in accidents to other modes. This reduces the savings to mill Security WEST will involve changes to the built environment. Hence, security aspects will be considered as part of the scheme design process We have undertaken measures which specifically tackle security fears which can discourage walking, cycling and public transport trips from being made. This includes the lighting of the urban section of the Bristol to Bath Railway Path. This is one of the most popular off-road cycle commuting routes in the UK and journeys on it during the hours of darkness rose from 28,774 in March 2007 to 37,273 in March Similarly, to help to reduce fly-parking and make cycles less prone to being stolen, there has been the installation of approximately 4,200 new cycle stands an increase of 217% on the existing levels. This has been made possible through various funding mechanisms including many grants to businesses to achieve this Other non-construction interventions can help overcome security concerns, including the personalised journey planning, workplace engagement activities and child 68 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

39 and adult cycle training Schemes which increase the numbers of people walking and cycling can lead to a positive impact on perceptions of security for everyone Access to services The JLTP3 aims to improve accessibility for residents to employment, health services, and other local services. It aims to improve accessibility for those with mobility difficulties and assist in neighbourhood renewal and regenerating deprived communities Information is presented in the JLTP3 on access to main employment centres across the West of England. Analysis indicates that 72.7% of West of England households are within 40 minutes public transport journey of a major employment centre. The figure for non-car households is higher, 83.7% of these households are within a 40 minute public transport journey of a main employment centre. WEST is especially improving access to work and training for year olds and people living in rural areas WEST builds upon the current good levels of non-car access to employment / training across much of the area by widening the choice of destinations which are accessible to residents, thereby opening up greater opportunities to access to employment. This supports social inclusion and provides access to key services where this has not previously been available. This will be achieved by, for example, targeting our activity in our Neighbourhood Priority Areas which are in the 20% most deprived areas (defined as the 20% most deprived SOAs in the sub-region in the 2007 index of Multiple Deprivation) in the West of England. These are South, Inner East and Outer North Bristol, central and south Weston-super-Mare and parts of south-west Bath. In the rural areas, WEST will provide new bus services linking to main urban centres and employment, working with the local communities to develop bottom up sustainable transport solutions. An example of this is the demandresponsive transport which will serve rural and more isolated communities to link with GBBN routes / employment areas WEST will have, as a minimum, as slight beneficial access to services impact. As the schemes are further developed, we anticipate these benefits will be higher Severance WEST will work with neighbourhood groups to identify roads and junctions which currently act as barriers to travel on foot and by cycle. Schemes will then be developed to overcome these barriers In South Gloucestershire, each of the five Area Forums are given 250,000/year to address local transport concerns, many of which are severance issues. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 69

40 The Greater Bristol Cycle City project included a series of schemes to overcome the severance issues which were deterring many people from making cycle journeys. This included high-profile schemes such as Meads Reach Bridge, providing a new link across the Floating Harbour to access to Bristol Temple Meads, and many smaller schemes In addition, a series of strategic cycle routes connect Bristol city centre to the outer suburbs and major North Fringe employment areas. The introduction of area-wide 20mph limits covering much of inner South and East Bristol has reduced motor traffic speeds, and with it, the feeling of severance caused by speeding traffic A new pedestrian crossing on the A4 Portway at Roman Way, along with an associated reduction in speed limit, enables local residents of Sea Mills to safely cross the dual carriageway and access the frequent bus services to the city centre In addition to the neighbourhood driven schemes, the footway across the A4174 Ring Road at Emersons Green will address severance issues in this location. Similarly the proposed footbridge to connect Batheaston to NCN4 Kennet & Avon Towpath at Bathampton will provide a dedicated traffic free route into Bath city centre WEST will have, as a minimum, a slight beneficial severance impact. As the schemes are further developed, we anticipate these benefits will be higher Affordability Overall the scheme components improve affordability, as WEST includes a number of walking and cycling measures which result in free access and public transport services that will be aimed at improving access for low income groups. Access to Work and Skills project will provide affordable options such as loan bikes and subsidised public transport tickets to support people through the initial 16 weeks into sustained employment Income deprivation occurs in broadly similar locations to those areas which have high proportions of households without access to a car. That is South, Inner East and Outer North Bristol, central and south Weston-super-Mare and parts of south-west Bath, with additional pockets of the 20% most income deprived located in the north and east of Bristol, in Keynsham, Bath and Weston-super-Mare. 70 Chapter 2 : Economic Case

41 The interventions identified as assisting non-car households will similarly assist in improving transport and access for the most deprived households as there is significant overlap in their locations. 2.7 Public accounts appraisal results The public accounts work comprises of Pubic Accounts table, which also set out the indirect taxes associated with the scheme Cost to Broad Transport Budget and Indirect Tax Revenues The costs of WEST have been derived in detail and the resultant costs are shown in the Public Accounts Tables, see Figure 2.6. Figure 2.6 Public Accounts Table ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE Local Government Funding TOTAL Operating Costs 64,759 Investment Costs 8,249 Developer and Other Contributions -8,455 NET IMPACT 64,553 Central Government Funding: Transport Operating costs Investment Costs 8795 Developer and Other Contributions NET IMPACT 8,795 Central Government Funding: Non-Transport Indirect Tax Revenues 46,641 TOTALS Broad Transport Budget 73,348 Wider Public Finances 46,641 West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 71

42 2.8 Social and Distributional Impacts We have used the SDI themes and related these to the scheme proposals. We have not undertaken a full analysis. We have considered the table carefully, but as generally people will benefit from WEST as the schemes being promoted are focussed on making a positive impact towards increasing access to employment and training for people without a car, especially young people and people living in rural areas The results of our analysis are set out in the Value for Money report. 2.9 Sensitivity tests The following sensitivity tests have been undertaken. These are described in the Value for Money report. High growth; Low growth; With Major Schemes; and Reduced scheme impacts. Figure 2.7 summarises the results from the sensitivity tests. Figure 2.7 Sensitivity Tests Results Present Value of Benefits (PVB) Present Value of Costs (PVC) Net Preset Value (NPV) Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) Core scenario High growth m m m 8.84 Low growth m m m 4.79 With all major schemes m m m 5.91 Reduced scheme impacts m m m Chapter 2 : Economic Case

43 2.10 Summary of the appraisal work The appraisal work detailed in the chapter so far, has set out a number of monetised scheme impacts, these are summarised in the Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits Table (see Figure 2.8). The resultant PVB is m This table also includes a summary of the scheme costs, and shows a PVC of m. The resultant NPV is m and the BCR is This BCR does not include the benefits identified through the HEAT assessment and, as noted in the introduction to the Economic Case, does not fully reflect the benefits from the whole of West of England The higher NPV and BCR value indicate WEST will provide very good value for money. Figure 2.8 Table of Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits Noise - Local Air Quality - Greenhouse Gases 13,592 Journey Ambience - Accidents 13,131 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) 289,272 Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) - Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers 185,806 Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) - 46,641 Option Values - Present Value of Benefits* (PVB) 455,160 Broad Transport Budget 73,348 Present Value of Costs* (PVC) 73,348 Overall Impacts Net Present Value (NPV) 381,812 Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 6.21 *This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis presented above does NOT provide a good measure of value for money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 73

44 Figure 2.9 Appraisal Summary Table (values in 000s) Economy Impacts Business users & transport providers Summary of key impacts The reduction in private car trips resulting from WEST reduces journey time and vehicle operating costs for the remaining business user highway trips. Reliability impact The reduction in private car trips resulting from WEST provides improved reliability for the on Business users remaining business user highway trips. Regeneration The WEST project will support increased labour market efficiency by improving access to key employment sites across the area in the target travel plan areas, commuter corridors and key centres. Quantitative Value of journey time changes( ) Net journey time changes ( ) 0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min 163,518 16, Assessment Qualitative Monetary Distributional Beneficial (NPV) 179,751 Slight beneficial 8,385 Not assessed Not assessed 7-pt scale/ vulnerable grp Not available Wider Impacts Not assessed Not assessed Not assessed Noise Not assessed Not assessed Not assessed Not applicable Not available Air Quality The reduction in vehicular traffic will improve air quality be reducing NOX and PM. The impact to receptors has not been quantified at this stage. Reduction of NOX by tonnes and PM10 by 2.21 tonnes per year in 2016 (Full decay scenario) Slight beneficial Not applicable Not available Greenhouse gases WEST reduces carbon emissions by reducing the number of highway trips. Change in non-traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) Change in traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) 1626 million tonnes N/A Slight beneficial 13,592 Environmental Landscape Townscape The majority of the scheme components that effect the built environment will be located within the urban environment so do not have a landscape impact. For those located in rural areas, the adverse impact to landscape will be minimised during the detailed design. The Weston-super-Mare town centre scheme will have a townscape impact. The detailed design will seek to maximise the beneficial impact of WEST Several schemes are proposed to be implemented in/near sensitive areas. For example, Heritage of the approaches to Temple Meads Station, composed of two grade I listed buildings and Historic resources their historic setting. The scheme components in the vicinity of historic resources will be designed to minimise the adverse impacts. Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Biodiversity Not applicable Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Water Environment Not applicable Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable

45 Impacts Commuting and Other users Reliability impact on Commuting and Other users Physical activity Journey quality Summary of key impacts The reduction in private car trips resulting from WEST results in journey time and VOC costs for the remaining commuting and other user highway trips. The reduction in private car trips resulting from WEST provides improved reliability for the remaining commuting and other user highway trips. The elements of the bid designed to encourage cycling and walking will deliver result in increased physical activity and hence improvement to health. Within the WEST scheme there are a number of scheme components that will enhance the journey quality for new and existing pedestrian and cycle journeys. Quantitative Value of journey time changes( ) Net journey time changes ( ) 0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min 182, Walking measures = 5.71 cycling measures Assessment Qualitative Monetary Distributional (NPV) 7-pt scale/ vulnerable grp Beneficial 183,228 Not available Slight beneficial 8,988,795 Beneficial Not assessed Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Social Accidents The reduction in private car trips resulting from WEST provides accident savings to highway users. It is recognised that pedestrian/cycle accidents could increase as a result. This has also been assessed to produce a net benefit (net benefit is shown to the right). Reduction of serious injury accidents = 5, reduction in slight injury accidents = 58, in 2016 in the full decay scenario Slight beneficial 13,131 Not available Security WEST includes numerous changes to the built environment. During the development of these schemes the security aspects will always be considered. Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not available Access to services WEST builds upon the current good levels of non-car access to employment across much of the area by widening the choice of destinations which are accessible to residents, thereby opening up greater opportunities to access to employment. Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not available Affordability Severance WEST includes a number of walking and cycling measures that result in "free" access and public transport services that will be aimed at improving access for low income groups As part of the WEST scheme the neighbourhood groups will be engaged with to ascertain the barriers to pedestrians/cycle. Schemes will then be developed to overcome these barriers. Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not available Not applicable Not assessed Not applicable Not available Option values Not assessed Not applicable Not assessed Not assessed Public Accounts Cost to Broad Transport Budget Indirect Tax Revenues The public sector costs associated with scheme implementation and ongoing support/maintenance As a result of removing highway trips from the network, indirect taxes such as tax and fuel duty are reduced. 73,348 46,641

46 Commercial Case Contents 3.1 Introduction Procurement Strategy Procurement Activities Evaluation Summary... 81

47 3. Commercial Case 3.1 Introduction This section sets out the Commercial Case for the WEST project. It contains: The proposed procurement strategy; Details of how the authorities will work together and with partners, including the management of risk; Proposed approach and contractual arrangements which seek to develop commercial viability; and Examples of how the authorities have employed joint procurement on previous projects and plans to continue and expand joint working. 3.2 Procurement Strategy Procedures and Processes The procurement strategy will develop and maintain efficient and effective procedures and processes, including: Joint delivery and governance; Identification of supply chains, building on the lessons learnt from a wide range of projects including sea defence works in Weston-super-Mare ( 29m), Joint Waste Management ( 44m saving over 5 years) and Combe Down Mines stabilisation project ( 155m); Packaging works to maximise supply chain efficiencies; Using forms of contract which support risk management and transparent payment mechanisms based on best practice, and enhanced to incorporate lessons learned from other major projects; Early contractor and operator engagement to provide advice and best practice; Use of existing and new framework contactor/supplier agreements to maximise flexibility and responsiveness in delivery; and Early consideration of procurement for maintenance and operations Governance The authorities have established a joint Programme Delivery Board (PDB) to coordinate procurement activities across the major schemes programme. This will ensure that joint working arrangements will be developed and opportunities for efficiencies, risk management and performance monitoring are exploited Capacity, Capability and Integration The Joint Procurement Strategy will be supported by appropriate capacity from the full range of resource pools available to deliver WEST. The West of England authorities have demonstrated a commitment through the Programme Delivery Board to assign dedicated resources to deliver the packages of works and services West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 79

48 across all ten WEST projects. The Joint Procurement Strategy has flagged that the resource pools for design have capacity in most areas and will be enhanced, where there are shortfalls, through sharing of cross-authority expertise. 3.3 Procurement Activities Capital Schemes The West of England authorities have considerable experience in developing and procuring transport capital schemes, both in their own right and in partnership with external partners. The Greater Bristol Bus Network major scheme highlights the West of England s ability to work together and with First Group to deliver a 78.8m showcase bus improvements on 10 corridors, with the aid of a 42.3m grant from the DfT. Effective management and cost control procedures ensured a consistent approach, with a continual focus on scheme objectives and outcomes. The large majority of WEST capital spend will be delivered through existing framework or other processes, enhanced or extended as required to reflect the scale and joint nature of this project Some of the capital elements of WEST include new technology products, such as bus passenger information, Variable Message Signs (VMS) and electric charging infrastructure. Value for money will be achieved through jointly tendered contracts. Where equipment is required in phases over several years, tenders will require tailored option pricing. This will enable the authorities to continue using the selected supplier, or re-tender, if market conditions change significantly during the life of the contract For electric vehicle charging infrastructure, Chargemaster plc has been procured to deliver the first phase of charging units, funded through developer contributions. Lessons learnt with this contract will be applied to a joint tender for the WEST contract Joint tendering delivers considerable efficiencies. For example, the WEST on-bus passenger information system tender will cover units on 100 buses operating on showcase bus corridors, with 50% match funding from operators. Similarly our shared contract for signal supply and maintenance continues to deliver savings Revenue Schemes The West of England authorities are also experienced in engaging contractors to undertake revenue funded transport projects, particularly in relation to bus revenue support, Cycling City marketing and promotion, transport studies, assessments and research. It is acknowledged, however, that WEST contains revenue funded schemes which are of a wider scope than traditional projects. The award of DfT funds to implement the Key Component proposals has given the authorities a head start in this field. Employer engagement is well underway following the joint 80 Chapter 3 : Commercial Case

49 appointment of the Sustainable Travel Field team that is giving us 20% saving on previous contractual arrangements. Experience gained through this project will be up-scaled to the larger bid, which will ensure that value for money is maintained and improved The authorities have begun a tendering process to appoint a WEST Smarter Choices delivery partner, a project worth up to 1.6m. Our partner will engage with business, schools and communities to promote walking, cycling, public transport and car sharing The West of England authorities have a proven track record of developing innovative schemes, working with partners and applying new methods of procurement. For example, DHL was awarded a joint contract to expand the Freight Consolidation Centre operation to cover both Bristol and Bath, which reduces HGV trips into the two city centres. The procurement and operational model is based on widening the customer base, sharing overheads and reductions in public funding so that the scheme becomes financially sustainable by 2015/ Evaluation The Centre for Transport & Society, at the University of West of England, has been appointed to provide independent evaluation of both the Key Component project and WEST. Early monitoring results will test if the WEST schemes are delivering the required outcomes. The results of this research will not only assist us in developing WEST and future programmes, but will also be invaluable to other authorities embarking on large scale, multi-faceted, sustainable transport projects. The Management Case provides more detail on the evaluation plan. 3.5 Summary The West of England Authorities work together on transport issues and projects at all levels. We strive for new ways of working with continual improvement in procurement and service delivery This culture of learning, developing knowledge and then applying this to minimise costs and improve service quality will be applied across WEST. Each authority will take a lead role for specific area-wide projects, which will generate procurement specialisms to be applied across the whole West of England area. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 81

50 Financial Case Contents 4.1 Introduction Detailed Cost Breakdown Allowance for inflation Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) Maintenance Independent Financial Review Local Contribution Financial Sustainability Section 151 Officer Sign-off Figures 4.1 WEST Cost Profile WEST DfT and local contribution including Key Component Cost Split by Theme WEST Projects by Total Cost (including Key Component) WEST Project Cost Split by Grant Funding (including Key Component) Cost Inflation Assumptions Financial Sustainability by Project Appendices 4.1 Detailed Cost Breakdown by Project 4.2 Quantified Risk Assessment 4.3 Section 151 Declaration

51 4. Financial Case 4.1 Introduction This section sets out how we propose to finance WEST. It includes: Detailed Cost Breakdown cost estimate including quantified risk assessment and inflation costs; Funding Package how the project would be funded including local contribution; Financial Sustainability how the project will be sustained in the longer term; and Section 151 Sign-off for all four authorities. 4.2 Detailed Cost Breakdown A cost estimate has been produced based on preliminary scheme designs and measures. The DfT Transport Business Case guidance for local authorities and the WebTAG Unit (The Estimation and Treatment of Scheme Costs) has been used in the preparation of the scheme costs and estimates In accordance with this guidance the cost breakdown provided below will include a consideration of investment costs, including an allowance for risk and an allowance for inflation A cost breakdown for WEST showing the capital / revenue split, local contribution, funding already secured through the key component bid, allowance for inflation and cost of risks identified in the quantified risk assessment (QRA) is included in Figure 4.1. A detailed cost breakdown by project is available in Appendix The capital element of the funding will be used largely for infrastructure improvements including: Strategic cycling / walking routes; Bus priority measures; Public transport information systems; Public realm and streetscape improvements; Electric vehicle charging points; Way finding to/from transport interchanges; and On-site facilities at businesses The revenue element will be used for overall management of the project as well as: Engagement with partners / community groups; Public transport Youth Card Plus; New public and community transport services; and Promotions, marketing and incentives. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 85

52 Figure 4.1 WEST Cost Profile WEST Project 000 s 2011/ / / /15 Total DfT revenue DfT capital Local contribution Total Key component (already funded) DfT capital DfT revenue Local contribution Total Totals Total package cost (entire project)* Total revenue (entire project)* Total capital (entire project)* Total DfT funding requested (for this bid only)* Total local contribution (including any contribution made to the key component bid)* Allowance for inflation 4.5% (included in the above) Cost of risks identified in quantified risk assessment (QRA) * Cost includes inflation and QRA The capital / revenue split of the DfT funded element of WEST (excluding the Key Component) is 45% capital and 55% revenue. The local contribution makes up 40% of the total WEST project funding package Figure 4.2 shows how the total funding will be split between the three themes with the key theme Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas making up 61% of the total costs and the other two themes (Connected and Thriving Centres and Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles) making up 39% of the total costs Figure 4.4 shows how the DfT funding is split between project areas with the Key Commuter Routes project receiving around one third of the total WEST funding in 86 Chapter 4 : Financial Case

53 addition to the 5m already secured (supported by 7.1m of local contribution) through the Key Component. Figure 4.2 WEST DfT and local contribution including Key Component Cost Split by Theme 15% Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Connected and Thriving Centres 24% Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles 61% Key Component Figure 4.3 WEST Projects by Total Cost (including Key Component) 5% 3% 4% 9% 3% 2% 4% Project Management and Evaluation Area Travel Plans Key Commuter Routes Business Travel Rural Links and Hubs Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas Key Centres 12% Move to Secondary School 3% 1% Key Component 48% Preparing for Adulthood Universities New Developments West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 87

54 Figure 4.4 WEST Project Cost Split by Grant Funding (including Key Component) 6% 4% 6% 1% 3% 7% Project Management and Evaluation Area Travel Plans Key Commuter Routes Business Travel 5% Rural Links and Hubs Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas 13% Key Centres Move to Secondary School 5% 2% Key Component 48% Preparing for Adulthood Universities New Developments 4.3 Allowance for inflation The rates will be applied in the appraisal in the following ways: Financial Appraisal To compute out-turn capital costs (costs incurred in specific years and spent at the price base for the same year) the combined rate of inflation is used to reflect general price and real cost changes. A total rate of 4.5% has been used, which applies as an annual figure below the combined rate of labour and materials between 2002 and 2009, of 6.0% p.a. Economic appraisal Only the real cost increases are assumed, with the underlying assumption that general inflation is 2.5% p.a., excepting 2011, where it is forecast to be 4.7% and , where it is forecast as 3.3% (Source: Forecast for the UK Economy, HM Treasury). The real capital cost increases assumed will be 2.0% for all years until 2011, -0.2% for 2011; 1.2% for the years ; 1.5% between 2014 and 2021; and 1.0% for years until Operating increases are assumed to be 50% of these rates. These overall capital inflation rates are at the lower end of recently observed ranges, with a combined rate ranging between -0.2% and 4.5% up to 88 Chapter 4 : Financial Case

55 2014; 4.0% between 2014 and 2021; and then 3.5% between 2021 and The values outlined above are presented in Figure 4.5. Figure 4.5 Cost Inflation Assumptions Time Period Retail Price Index (RPI) Real Cost Inflation Combined Inflation % 2.0% 4.5% % -0.2% 4.5% % 1.2% 4.5% % 1.5% 4.0% % 1.0% 3.5% A total inflation rate of 4.5% - including the allowance for general rises of 4.7% (2011), 3.3% ( ) and 2.5% (pre-2011 and post-2014) and real cost inflation of up to 2.0%, is to be applied Between 2002 and 2009, observed RPI has been at an average of 2.8% p.a.; labour at 5.2% p.a.; and materials at 6.7% p.a. The combined labour and materials rate is 6.0% The rates applied are consistent with WebTAG guidance where it is recognised that following the provision of satisfactory evidence, real cost increases may be accounted for in the appraisal. Over the appraisal period the rates may even be considered as conservative, considering the trends between 2002 and 2009 and that the constraint on real cost increases is likely to be temporary. 4.4 Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) A risk workshop was held on 8 November 2011, with representatives from each authority. The attendees were from a variety of technical backgrounds, representing a full range of skills/disciplines. The risk workshop developed and expanded the list of risks set out in the risk register included in the WEST Initial Proposals submitted to DfT in June 2011, added quantified likelihood and impact data A revised risk register is shown in Appendix 4.2. The associated Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) resulted in a mean risk value of 4.824m (P50) The top risks are detailed below. Mitigation measures are detailed in the Management Case: West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 89

56 Failure to deliver third party funding; Underestimation of scheme costs; Effect of inflation on costs; Contractor, consultants, public transport operator, suppliers cease trading or change ownership; Objections to Traffic Regulation Orders; and Possible judicial reviews. 4.5 Maintenance Maintenance costs of 4% per annum have been applied for the capital items. In addition it has been assumed that these assets would be renewed every twenty years. 4.6 Independent Financial Review To provide confidence in the financial case, an independent financial review has been undertaken by Price Waterhouse Coopers. 4.7 Local Contribution The local contribution has been made up from a combination of secured S106, LTP and other council funding. This local contribution has been included in the cost breakdown and has been underwritten by the local authorities Secured Section 106 The secured developer contributions total 3.50m and will be available within the life of the project and have been underwritten LTP and other Local Authority funding LTP and other Local Authority funding has been incorporated into a number of project areas and has been underwritten by the four authorities. This funding totals 7.06m Unsecured Third Party Funding Additional funding totalling 6.32m from S106 contributions and private funding sources is expected to be available during the life of the project but cannot be underwritten at this stage as it is not yet available to the local authorities, and in some case will be spent directly by third parties. 90 Chapter 4 : Financial Case

57 4.7.5 Summary of Local Contribution Including this third party contribution the total local contribution for WEST would be 16.88m. 4.8 Financial Sustainability The projects have been developed to maximise financial sustainability. The overall aim is to establish partnerships, good practice and behaviour change that can be sustained in the longer term, supported by increased financial investment by the authorities. Figure 4.6 shows how the overall financial sustainability of each project will be achieved. Figure 4.6 Financial Sustainability by Project Project Area Travel Plans Key Commuter Routes Business Travel Rural Links and Hubs Connected Centres Self Financing (a) Delivered by Business (b) Delivered by Others (c) Local Authority Delivery (existing resources) (d) Additional Local Authority Delivery (e) Key Centres School Work and Training Universities New Developments West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 91

58 4.8.2 To ensure the future benefits are sustained the four local authorities have committed to providing at least 1m per annum beyond existing resource levels after WEST funding ceases in 2014/15 to support the projects listed. It is anticipated that the funding will be allocated to project areas as highlighted in column (e) but this will be informed by the evaluation process to target the more successful measures of the project and those that require some ongoing funding to ensure longer term sustainability More detail is provided below on how financial sustainability will be achieved for each project area: Area Travel Plans the area travel plans will be developed by working in partnership with employers and these partnerships will continue beyond WEST. Groups have already been established within the dock area and the North Fringe and it is expected that these groups will continue once WEST funding ceases. As the areas are all growth areas there will be opportunities to secure developer contributions for continuing with the work. The experience and good practice gained will be rolled out including ongoing promotions and marketing with associated infrastructure improvements. Key Commuter Routes partnership working with employers will be established through WEST and will be maintained in the longer term through existing staff resources. The experience and good practice gained will be rolled out including ongoing promotions and marketing with associated infrastructure improvements. The infrastructure improvements delivered as part of WEST will be delivered by 2014/15. It is planned that new public transport services will become commercially viable informed by market research and secured through careful procurement procedures. Opportunities will be sought through planning applications to secure developer contributions towards continuing the travel planning elements of this project. Business Travel the Go Low scheme will be rolled out to businesses. Cost savings made through more effective ways of managing the vehicle fleet will enable the project to become self financing. Evidence generated from success stories during WEST will continue to be disseminate to other businesses post Momentum generated during the project including evidence of travel cost reductions will gain pace to enable a selfsustaining project in the longer term. The roll-out of electric vehicle charging infrastructure to businesses and in public car parks will be selfsustaining. Businesses will be supplied with private charging units and will cover the cost of electricity consumed on their sites. In public car parks, the charging units will have a higher 92 Chapter 4 : Financial Case

59 specification which enables detailed data to be collected for each user. Electricity at these sites will initially be provided free, but this will switch to user-payment during the Fund period. Rural Hubs and Links funding will be used to build links between key stakeholders and rural communities to address real and perceived transport barriers in relation to access to training and employment. We will establish partnerships and enable local communities to continue the project in the longer term when funding ceases. The local authorities will continue to provide information and advice once the project ends and LTP funding can be used to support community projects. Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas the infrastructure improvements will be in place by the end of the project and will be maintained by the local authority. It is envisaged that staff resources will continue to work with the neighbourhood partnerships at the end of WEST. Local initiatives such as Car Clubs have shown that following initial investment they are financially sustainable by Private Operators. Other initiatives will be assessed and rolled into existing neighbourhood and partnership work programmes. Key Centres this project focuses mainly on infrastructure schemes that will be delivered by the end of the project in 2014/15. The authorities will be liable for ongoing maintenance. Regeneration of the key centres is ongoing and there has already been and will continue to be significant investment. We are committed to promoting growth in our urban centres and will continue to improve the transport conditions. Proposed investment in the freight consolidation centre will allow this service to grow, creating economies of scale that will enable it to become selfsustaining by Move to Secondary School new measures will be piloted as part of WEST and it is anticipated that successful measures within the project will continue at a reduced level when WEST funding ceases. There will be opportunities to develop a web-based portal that can be utilised. Options for charging for Bikeability level 3 training will be explored. Much of the work on Moving Sustainably to Secondary School will be embedded within our core road safety education programmes. We are also looking to local business partnerships to help support this programme. Access to Work and Skills we will mainstream this in the longer term by building successful partnerships between Further Education establishments, job centres and business. Ongoing guidance and support will be provided by the local authorities. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 93

60 Universities partnership working with universities is well established. This will be maintained in the longer term through existing staff resources. The experience and good practice gained will be rolled out including ongoing promotions and marketing with associated infrastructure improvements. The infrastructure improvements delivered as part of WEST will be delivered by 2014/15. Bus services will be expanded to serve major employment sites that will increase passenger numbers and enable services to become financially viable. New Developments this project focuses on bringing forward initiatives in advance of developer contributions. Successful pilot schemes will be included in future S106 agreements or provided through Supplementary Planning Documents The financial sustainability of measures that span several project areas and carry more risk are as follows: New public transport services informed by market research and secured through careful procurement the aim is to establish new services that will be financially viable in the longer term. Through a market-led approach we will expect the successful operator to commit to provide the service for an additional year after WEST funding ceases. Other services will be procured with the intention of providing a service for 4 years for example by pump-priming with the revenue from fares being used to support the service for an additional period by which time it is forecast the services will be financially viable. Wheels to work / cycle loan scheme - The wheels to work / cycle loan scheme will be provided by purchasing a supply of electric / unisex bikes through local bike shops who will administer the scheme to include storage, equipment and maintenance. This is currently being piloted in the Key Component. The aim would be to loan bikes for a short period to aid access to employment / training and in order to try before purchase. Once the scheme is established we will look for opportunities to continue this in the longer term when WEST funding ceases. New Technology new technology will be developed during the life of the project with the long term aim of securing the market to provide ongoing maintenance / refresh costs. Marketing opportunities also exist which will be explored. Youth Card Plus the scheme will be piloted along two services in partnership and part funded by the bus operator. The aim is to develop a scheme that would be rolled out to all areas and run by the bus operators in the longer term with no ongoing financial commitment. 94 Chapter 4 : Financial Case

61 4.9 Section 151 Officer Sign-off In accordance with the guidance for local authorities the scheme cost estimates have been considered by the Section 151 Officers for all four contributing local authorities. The cost estimates for the scheme and the capacity of the authorities to meet its potential financial liabilities for the scheme have been confirmed. The signed declaration to this effect is included in Appendix 4.3. Appendices Appendix Detailed cost breakdown by project Appendix 4.2 Quantified Risk Assessment Appendix 4.3 Section 151 Declaration West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 95

62 Management Case Contents 5.1 Introduction Experience Governance Joint Transport Executive Committee Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) Joint Scrutiny Programme Board Senior Responsible Owner Programme and Project Management The Delivery Team Programme Management Stakeholder Involvement Communications Strategy and Plan Programme Communication Plan Project Plan Risk Management Evaluation Benefits Realisation Figures 5.1 WEST Governance Arrangements WEST Delivery Arrangements High Level Project Plan Top Risks Appendices 5.1 Letters of Support 5.2 Programme Manual for the WEST Key Component - Key Commuter Routes project 5.3 Stakeholder Advisory Panel Terms of Reference 5.4 Outline Communications Plan 5.5 Intervention Logic Map 5.6 Performance Indicator Framework

63 5. Management Case 5.1 Introduction This management case details how we will deliver WEST. It sets out: Our experience of successful joint delivery of major transport schemes in the West of England Governance who is responsible for delivering the scheme, the roles and responsibilities of those involved and how key decisions are made. The involvement of partners and stakeholders and our communication arrangements. Project plan demonstrates a clear project plan identifying the key output milestones and timescales. More detailed project plans are included with the project sheets (Figure 5.3) Risk management demonstrates that the key risks have been identified and costed, and are being reviewed, managed and lessened where possible. The full QRA is at Appendix 4.2 Evaluation and benefit realisation demonstrates how WEST will be evaluated and baseline data for managing benefit realisation. 5.2 Experience The delivery of this project will draw on the lessons learned from recent hands on experience of the implementation of the Cycling City and Greater Bristol Bus Network (GBBN) projects. Both these projects are complex and demanding and have required new ways of working across the authorities and with stakeholders. Through the Cycling City project, Bristol and South Gloucestershire councils have delivered 11.4m government funding, along with a similar amount of locally matched investment, on time and on budget. This delivery has included miles of cycle paths and routes, either upgraded, improved or built from scratch as part of 35 different infrastructure projects. Similarly for the 70m GBBN project, three years into a four year programme the DfT grant funded tasks are on track and to budget. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 99

64 5.2.2 We can also demonstrate a track record of action to support more sustainable travel behaviour, so we know that our planned interventions are effective. For example, the travel plan at Bristol University has halved single occupancy car travel from 44% to 21% mode share over 10 years (Travel to Work Survey 2009). Key routes have seen a 28% increase in cycling activity as a result of the Cycling City project and an overall increase of some 60% in cycling in the central areas between 2002 and Similarly early results from GBBN are showing a 20% increase in passengers on the first corridor to be launched We will draw on our experience of delivering the 11m Key Component Key Commuter Routes project. We understand the importance of early mobilisation and have established a robust programme management approach that can be scaled up to deliver WEST. Experience has taught us that preparation and mobilisation must run in parallel with business case development. 5.3 Governance Overarching responsibility for the good governance of WEST will lie with the West of England Joint Transport Executive Committee (JTEC). There will also be a formal role for the Local Enterprise Partnership and Joint Scrutiny Committee. A Programme Board, reporting to JTEC, will guide the delivery of WEST. The roles of these bodies are described below, and illustrated in Figure Joint Transport Executive Committee Development and implementation of cross boundary schemes and projects in the West of England is overseen by well-established joint governance arrangements built around strong political leadership provided by a Joint Transport Executive Committee (JTEC). This Committee brings together the four authority Executive Members with responsibility for transport in a forum legally constituted via a Joint Working Agreement. The JTEC first met in April 2009 and its key roles are to: Recommend the Joint Local Transport Plan (JLTP), major schemes and cross boundary projects; Oversee the implementation and funding of these schemes and projects; and Monitor the performance against the JLTP. 100 Chapter 5 : Management Case

65 Figure 5.1 WEST Governance Arrangements Local Enterprise Partnership Joint Transport Executive Committee and UAs Joint Scrutiny Committee Programme Board Alistair Cox Bristol (SRO) Peter Dawson - Bath & North East Somerset Peter Mann Bristol Chris Sane - South Gloucestershire Colin Medus - North Somerset Mike Harding Finance Officer, Bristol Robert Sinclair - Local Enterprise Partnership Barbara Davies - West of England Partnership Office Hugh Annett Public Heath Bristol Programme Manager Ashley Beighnton 5.5 Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) Since its formation last year, the West of England LEP has made considerable progress in identifying, agreeing and pursuing its key economic objectives. The LEP incorporates the four unitary authorities and all of the key business organisations in the area (in particular, Business West, CBI, Institute of Directors and the Federation of Small Businesses). The aspirations of the LEP are particularly focused on delivering significant and sustainable economic growth over the next 20 years The West of England Local Enterprise Partnership Board first met in April 2011 and comprises the four Council Leaders and four key representatives from business. Key activities of the Board are to: Co-ordinate the approach to economic growth by the private and public sector; Facilitate opportunities for business and private sector organisations on the ground to deliver; and Influence government programmes and initiatives. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 101

66 5.5.3 To provide a forum for business engagement with JTEC an Infrastructure and Place Group has been established which advises on place making and the planning and delivery of infrastructure, to support the LEP s objectives Recognising the importance of transport for the LEP, Board member Robert Sinclair has been identified as the lead on transport. Robert is also the LEP representative on the Programme Board for the LSTF Key Commuter Routes Project and will fulfil a similar role for WEST. 5.6 Joint Scrutiny The Joint Scrutiny Committee is comprised of cross party representatives across the four authorities. The Committee provides advice to JTEC on the development of policy and investment frameworks, and reviews implementation of schemes and projects such as WEST using their scrutiny powers. 5.7 Programme Board Building upon established West of England joint governance, and the arrangements established for the Key Commuter Routes project, WEST will be overseen by a Programme Board made up of authority representatives and key stakeholders (see Figure 5.1). The Programme Board is the group which guides and steers the direction of the WEST project and is responsible for its delivery. The Board approves the Programme Plan, and any agreed variation, and authorises or seeks authority for strategic decisions from JTEC. Meetings are linked to key milestones, at which the Board considers highlight and exception reports, changes to the risk log and other key deliverables as defined in the Programme Plan. Board member Colin Medus is responsible for ensuring that quality aspects of WEST and its benefits are delivered. 5.8 Senior Responsible Owner The Programme Board is chaired by the WEST Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) and is facilitated by the Programme Manager. The SRO for WEST will be Alistair Cox, Service Manager - City Transport at Bristol City Council. Alistair has extensive experience of overseeing the development of major projects during his time in both the public and private sector. Alistair is also the SRO for the Key Commuter Routes project. This will ensure that WEST builds on the foundations of this project in terms of governance, delivery arrangements and stakeholder engagement. 102 Chapter 5 : Management Case

67 5.9 Programme and Project Management The WEST delivery structure will utilise key individuals for Programme and Project Management who have fulfilled these roles in other West of England projects (see Figure 5.2). The Programme Manager for WEST will be Ashley Beighnton who has fulfilled the role of Independent Programme Director for the 78m Greater Bristol Bus Network between 2008 and 2012, coordinating its delivery by the four authorities. Ashley will be supported by two Project Managers and a programme support officer: Ed Plowden who will mange the Low Carbon Commuting and Active and Sustainable Communities Projects. Ed has wide experience in this role including previously delivering Bristol and South Gloucestershire s Cycling City project to time and budget, and is currently the Programme Manager for the LSTF Key Commuter Routes Key Component. Mark Parry who will manage the Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles project. Mark was the lead officer in the Cycling City project for South Gloucestershire and has over 20 years experience of delivering walking and cycling initiatives on time and to budget, Mark is also a Prince 2 practitioner. Heather Saxton - who will be the Programme Support Officer. Heather has wide experience of supporting Prince 2 projects, was the Project Support Officer for Cycling City and is now performing this role for the Key Component of WEST The Delivery Team Delivery will follow GBBN practice where the project is divided into defined task orders each with a budget and implementation profile. This is supported by a strict change request process reporting to the Programme Board, and ultimately the JTEC Working jointly on management, procurement, delivery and sharing specialist skills and knowledge will deliver efficiencies and economies. Shared delivery mechanisms have already been employed for Cycling City through a Sustainable Transport Field Team to deliver travel advice, and a joint provider is in place for Car Club services. This has further developed through the joint procurement of a third party provider of support spanning business, schools and community engagement which is proceeding through the OJEU process. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 103

68 Figure 5.2 WEST Delivery Arrangements Programme and Evaluation Manager Ashley Beighnton Programme Support Officer Heather Saxton PROGRAMME TASKS Stakeholder Engagement Group Stimulating Growth in Priority Areas Project Manager Ed Plowden Connected and Thriving Centres Project Manager Ed Plowden Transitions to Low Carbon Lifestyles Project Manager Mark Parry PROJECT MANAGEMENT Sustainable Transport Field Team Authorities Bus Operators Sustrans Active Travel Promoters Job Centres DELIVERY Electric Charging Point Contractor Neighbourhoods Car Club providers Freight Consolidation Centre Operator Universities and Colleges Car Club providers

69 The authorities have a long and extensive experience of working with both private and third sector partners in delivery. The project will seek to maximise opportunities to draw on the unique knowledge and skills that partners can bring and to deeply embed them within the delivery arrangements. Examples include: Shared marketing, promotion and evaluation alongside open book accounting with First on our Youth Card Plus scheme; A successful freight consolidation scheme is in operation serving Bristol and Bath city centres. Working in partnership with operator DHL and over a hundred businesses. The authorities will continue to develop and extend this scheme to move towards a business model which provides long term sustainability; Establishing Go-Low as a Community Interest Company to pioneer green fleet management; Working with the University of the West of England to build on promotional activity that is part of the Key Component to maximise the benefits of the re branded Wessex Red bus services they provide. The improvements will be agreed in partnership but delivered by UWE Overall more than 45 organisations have given commitments to be involved in delivering WEST. Further details of these are provided in the Strategic Case and letters of support are provided in Appendix Programme Management Our Programme Management approach is based on Prince 2 and builds on tried and tested methods used most recently for GBBN and the EC supported Renaissance Project We have a clear approach for managing risk and project changes that we set out in the Programme Handbooks. This is accompanied by individual task orders for each element of the project, for which the project sheets in Appendix 1.2 form blue basis. As part A mobilization for WEST we will adapt the Key Component Programme Handbook set out in Appendix Stakeholder Involvement Developing, Shaping and Steering WEST Stakeholders have been actively involved throughout the development of the WEST West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 105

70 programme. Early workshops to gain local views on the emerging proposals were held both for the Key Commuter Routes projects (Key Component Bid) and for the WEST (Large Project) bid. We have been very engaged with the WEST bid development it is a standing agenda item at our regular North Bristol Sus Com meetings and we have attended various stakeholder workshops and discussions regarding the bid development. North Bristol Sus Com Learning from the success of the Cycling City project, a Stakeholder Advisory Panel been created to support the development and delivery of Key Component project and WEST. This Panel brings together a range of stakeholders from the business, community and other sectors and first met on 28 November The role of the Panel is to: Advise the Programme Board and Project Managers on sustainable transport issues as they relate to achieving the objectives of the projects; Act as a critical friend to the Programme Board bringing challenge and new ways of thinking to the project so it can be delivered more successfully, bringing forward practical ideas and being an advocate for the success of the project; and Concentrate on strategic issues and the effective delivery of the project drawing on the experience and expertise of the Panel members The terms of reference and make up of the panel is attached as Appendix 5.3. This ensures appropriate involvement of stakeholders in the specification and delivery of the Programme measures to produce the greatest positive impact The business involvement has brought forward commitments of support from a number of companies and has already provided spin off benefits in the sharing of knowledge between local companies regarding sustainable transport. For example North Bristol Sus Com has shared their experiences of setting up a local business group focussing on sustainable travel with the Bristol Port Initiative with a view to a similar group starting in the in the Avonmouth/Severnside area There will also be ongoing community involvement in WEST using established mechanisms such as Priority Neighbourhoods, Neighbourhood Partnerships and Parish and Town Councils Communications Strategy and Plan This section sets out the Communications Framework for WEST and its 10 interrelated projects. 106 Chapter 5 : Management Case

71 Programme and Project Linkages The WEST communications strategy is closely linked to the communication strategies for other transport initiatives undertaken by the authorities, both in terms of content and timing. These initiatives include the delivery of the Greater Bristol Bus Network and Cycling City; the potential major scheme programme for the area; the regular work on Travel Plans with local employers, schools and communities; and the work with the Local Enterprise Partnership on transport initiatives All these activities will be delivered under a single overarching brand, Travel+. This brand was developed in 2008 for joint activities by the four authorities. The key messages about all Travel+ projects are that they: Sit at the core of the local authorities vision for change; Deliver realistic, integrated, sustainable and equitable travel choices for all our communities across the area; Offer real alternatives to the private car for local journeys and should help encourage us to change our travel behaviour; and Will help manage congestion and maintain our quality of life, delivering real choice and supporting future economic growth Programme Communication Plan Consultation is regularly undertaken by the local authorities on a wide range of matters. To avoid consultation fatigue the established arrangements and relationships will be used for the WEST work wherever possible. An outline Communication Plan is shown in Appendix Contact with local public and stakeholders in the project will be managed individually, whilst ensuring that the interrelationship between the projects is not forgotten by the use of the overarching Travel+ brand and the existence of the Communications Group for the programme. There will also be a communications plan for each of the 10 projects Project Plan A high level Project Plan is shown in Figure 5.3 which shows the key milestones in the delivery of the project. This is supported by more detailed Plans for the individual projects which illustrate the linkages between them and key dependencies. These are included in the Project Summary Sheets shown in Appendix 1.2. West of England Sustainable Travel (WEST) 107

72 Figure 5.3 High Level Project Plan 2012/ / /15 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Project management Evalaution Developing Area Travel Plans Inception meeting with each of the 3 areas held ATP produced/reviewed for each area Infrastructure measures delivered Key Commuter Routes 50 employers targeted A further 25 employers targeted A Further 25 Employers Targeted Business Travel GoLow available to businesses employing 25,000 people 60 business electric charging points installed GoLow available to businesses employing 50,000 people Rural Hubs & Links Agreed action plan in place and Neighbourhood Fund established 20 rural communities targeted 42 rural communities targeted. Local Economic Activity in Urban Areas 5 neighbourhood partnerships/priority neighbourhoods engaged with A further 10 neighbourhood partnerships/priority neighbourhoods engaged with A further 10 neighbourhood partnerships/priority neighbourhoods engaged with Sustainable Travel in Key Centres Implementation commences on phase 1 cycling and walking schemes in Bath, Bristol & Weston-super-Mare

73 2012/ / /15 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Complete 5 cycling schemes, 5 walking schemes and parking guidance system Bristol/Bath Freight Consolidation Centre becomes financially sustainable. Move to Secondary School 6 secondary schools engaged with & their associated feeder primaries A further 9 secondary schools enagaged with & their associated feeder primaries Off-site safer routes measures delivered Preparing for Work and Skills 4 secondary schools, 1 FE college and Job Centres Plus engaged with A further 4 secondary schools and 2 FE colleges engaged with A further 2 secondary schools and 2 FE colleges engaged with Universities Promotional activities delivered for 2 Universities Wessex Red services improved Improve cycle facilities at a further 2 Universities New Developments Developer contacts established Home Info packs produced for 2 sites Provide Real time information at bus stops serving developments Deadline Lead up/follow up work

74 5.16 Risk Management The risks to the project were identified through a Qualitative risk assessment; the top 10 risks are listed in Figure 5.4 below. The risks identified will be monitored by the relevant Project Manager, regular monitoring processes will alert us to any issues and these will be raised through the line of governance until the issue is resolved. Figure 5.4 Top Risks Risk Owner Source of Risk Consequence Probability Impact Pre response risk priority Specific Action Probability Impact Post response risk priority Programme Board Project Managers Failure to deliver third party funding Underestima tion of scheme costs Insufficient funding to complete the programme measures 3 4 H Cost increase 4 4 H Letters of support to formalise partner contributions. Involvement of key stakeholders in governance and delivery arrangements. Working with partners on project delivery and assessing contributions quarterly Develop detailed and costed Project Plans for individual Projects. Benchmarking of costs against previous work and other LAs. Strong Programme Management and change control processes implemented. Regular liaison and progress reporting to DfT to ensure expectations are met. Independent cost reviews. Good project management. The project will be subject to internal reviews and there will be regular reporting to the Programme Board and Joint Transport Executive Committee (JTEC) 2 4 M 3 4 H

75 Risk Owner Source of Risk Consequence Probability Impact Pre response risk priority Specific Action Probability Impact Post response risk priority Programme Manager Effect of inflation on costs Cost increases exceed available budget 3 3 M Robust estimate of future inflation levels. The impact of inflation changes will be monitored to enable forward planning of budgets 3 3 M Programme Manager Contractor, consultants, PT operator, or suppliers cease trading or change ownership Increased scheme cost and delays to the programme 2 4 M Thorough vetting of contractors, consultants etc in line with authority policies 2 4 M Project Managers Objections to TRO's Programme delayed, or some scheme components terminated 4 3 M Positive Member support, early consultations to ascertain likely objections 3 3 M SRO Possible judicial reviews for TROs, PROWs, planning applications etc. Delays to the programme and additional costs. Could terminate components of the scheme 1 4 M Ensure correct processes are followed. Undertake assurance reviews at appropriate stages in the project to check processes are being undertaken correctly. Programme management to enable unexpected delays to be compensated for by bringing forward other workstreams, to ensure that the scheme is delivered to the funding profile 1 4 M

76 5.17 Evaluation We are committed to ensuring a robust evaluation framework for WEST. Funding of 63,000 has been allocated within WEST to evaluate the project against a clear set of performance criteria, to demonstrate value for money and show that the project is meeting its aims. The Centre for Transport & Society at the University of the West of England has been commissioned to be independent evaluator of the Key Component project (Key Commuter Routes) and has devised the following evaluation framework based on the steps recommended in DfT guidance on transport impact evaluation (Hills and Junge K, 2010) Intervention and its context The evaluation of WEST meets the needs of DfT in providing data that can be used for a programme-wide evaluation of LSTF impacts. It will meet the needs of the West of England authorities in gauging the effectiveness of the package in achieving intended outcomes and impacts. The evaluation will also provide evidence which will be of wider value. Currently, there is limited knowledge on the impacts of this type of investment and many assumptions have to be made in modelling and appraisal. Better evidence will allow business cases for future Smarter Choice/Better Use investment to be developed with greater confidence Evaluation questions An intervention logic map has been generated by the CTS (see Appendix 5.5). This provides a systematic and visual representation of how the intervention is intended to convert inputs and resources into activities that lead to specific outcomes/impacts. It shows that WEST is a complex intervention due to the dynamic environment in which it will be implemented, the interaction between different measures within the package, the targeting of multiple behaviours, the impacts potentially taking time to build up and the effects varying across the population. It is therefore apparent that evaluation needs to address questions of how the intervention causes change as well as what outcomes are achieved. Relevant evaluation questions are the following: 1. What level of engagement was achieved with stakeholders and the public and what factors led to increased engagement? 2. What is the change in acceptance of using low carbon travel alternatives for commuting, education and local non-work journeys? 3. What is the overall change in use of different travel modes for commuting, business and local non-work journeys and how far can this be attributed to LSTF/JLTP3? 112 Chapter 5 : Management Case