CCl 17 - Technical Conference. OPACE III Climate Prediction, Projection and Delivery Mechanism

Transcription

1 CCl 17 - Technical Conference OPACE III Climate Prediction, Projection and Delivery Mechanism A. Shimpo and J.P. Céron Opace 3 Co-Chairs a1shimpo@gmail.com & jpceron.wmo@gmail.com Geneva April 2018

2 Outline Opace 3 main achievements Next steps (Focus Area 2 objectives) Discussion 2

3 Main Responsibilities Areas of responsabilities (reminder from CCl 16) RCCs, RCOFs Operational predictions from sub-seasonal to longer time scales GSCU Tailored Climate Information for Decision Making CSIS Climate Projections In close collaboration especially with CBS and WCRP in addition to other Opaces (especially though not only 4 & 5) 3

4 Opace 3 main achievements CCl/CBS ET-RCC Contribution to the revision of the GDPFS manual Review Guidelines on establishment and operation of WMO RCCs Final draft focused more on the establishment aspects (ready), Ready for publication after the CCl-17 session.after incorporation of additional material on technical aspects of RCC operations 4

5 Opace 3 main achievements TT-TCI Revision of the ToRs. Main activities Completion of the review from 5 priority sector from full set of consultation, exemplar, Start of the guidance documentation 5

6 Opace 3 main achievements TT-TCI General Framework for Tailored Information 6

7 Opace 3 main achievements CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Linkage with CSIS adopted Workshop on Operational Prediction : Breakout discussions : GSCU, CST requirements, Preparation of a Guidance document on LRF practises Some specific changes: 7

8 Opace 3 main achievements TT-GSCU Work done or in progress : Trial of GSCU in operational-like schedule To be finalized : Analyzing comments from external review and reflect results in the material of GSCU Commitments for the operational phase Creating the User Guide of GSCU IPET OPSLS involved in the next. Discussion about the dissemination of the GSCU 8

9 Opace 3 main achievements TT-RCOF Update of the position papers on RCOFs Organization a global RCOF review (09/2016) Way forward (RCOF v2.0) Better engagement of stakeholders and end-users (codesign, co-production, etc) Seeking for long term sustainability. Guidance documents Draft Technical Guidance for NCOFs (with a special focus on operational practises) Concept note drafted 9

10 Opace 3 main achievements Other Activities GDPFS new developments (CBS linkage) Proposal of CCl needs especially related to The Specialized centres (especially the RCCs,and GPCs) The Climate Service dimension, The Climate Service Toolkit, The Climate Change information, Near Term Climate Prediction / Decadal forecasts : E stablishment of a LC-NTCP and the GC-NTCP Prediction and associated Global Annual to Decadal Climate Outlook (GA2DU) once a year (similar with the GSCU) Some caution about the understanding of the associated predictability, the skill and the use of the information 10

11 Perspective for the next Linkage with SP Goal 1 Better serve societal needs: Objective 1.2 Climate services for climate-resilient development: Focus : The Climate Service Information System (CSIS) should be operational. Goal 2 Enhance Earth system observations and predictions: Objective 2.3 Data processing: Focus : The GDPFS will evolve significantly Goal 3 Advance targeted research: Objective 3.2 Improve predictive capabilities: Focus : Co-design improving predictive capabilities 11

12 Perspective for the next Focus Area 2 (CSIS Operations) Mostly dedicated to CSIS operations 2 IPET (CCl/CBS joint ETs), 1 TT and 1 joint TT (with FA 3) IPET-RCA (CCl/CBS joint ET) : Dedicated to Regional Climate Activities including RCCs and RCOFs Monitoring and evaluating activities of RCCs Develop technical guidance for enhancing, strengthening and expanding of the RCOF process Guidance on RCOF operation following outcomes from global RCOF review for the new generation of RCIFs (RCOF 2.0) Guidance on regional and national climate change scenario (in collaboration with WCRP) 12

13 Perspective for the next Focus Area 2 (CSIS Operations) IPET-OPSLS :(CBS/CCl joint ET): dedicated to Operational Prediction from sub Seasonal to Long time Scale Guidance on seasonal prediction including use of objective seasonal prediction Operational implementation of GSCU (CCl/CBS) Operational implementation of GA2DU (WCRP/CBS/CCl) Recommendations on CSIS functionality of operational prediction and its integration with the GDPFS. (in collaboration with WCRP/CORDEX) ; TT-TCI:(joint TT with FA3) : Dedicated to the Tailored Climate Information Collect and identify good practices on production, delivery, communication and application of tailored climate information and services Consolidate and finalize the principles for moving from basic climate information to a value-added tailored climate service; Workshop concept strengthening capacities for development and delivery of tailored climate services at regional and national level 13

14 Perspective for the next Focus Area 2 (CSIS Operation) TT-CST : Dedicated to the Climate Service Toolkit and Downscaling Customisation and Implementation of the CST Guidance on Downscaling of Seasonal Prediction and Climate Projection (in collaboration with WCRP/CORDEX) Proposals for suitable WMO accreditation procedures for quality assurance;l 14

15 Perspective for the next Linkage with Resolutions and Recommendations Resolutions: 5.1/1 : enhancing WMO RCC operations, 5.2/1 : systematic approach to climate service delivery 5.2/5 : Tailored and seamless Climate Services Recommendations: In CCl17-d04-2, recommendation p3-(4) : Engagement of the operational entities of the CSIS 5.1/1 : CSIS Technical reference 5.1/3 : Best practises on Regional Climate Change Projections 5.2/2 : Operationalization of the GSCU 5.3/1 : Integrated capacity development process for the CSIS (especially referring to RCCs, RCOFs, CST, ;;;) 5.3/4 : National focal points of the CSIS 15

16 CCl Technical Conference Butterfly Effect Geneva April 2018