Em busca de Padrões da Qualidade Internacionais

Transcription

1 Em busca de Padrões da Qualidade Internacionais II Fórum IQA da Qualidade Automotiva São Paulo, 15 de setembro de 2014

2 Focus of today's presentation Overview of the current automotive market environment Implications for a typical automotive supplier Quality as a key enabler to improve supplier profitability Four essential aspects that enable and support a better quality 2

3 2014 has shown a negative development until August with no relief expected in the second half of the year Expected market development 2014, cars and light commercial vehicles 1) [m units] Sales Production Sep-Dec % ~ -8% 3.2 ~ % ~ -16% Jan-Aug % -18% ) < 3.5 tons Source: ANFAVEA; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3

4 The slow start into 2014 is driven by the unfavorable economic development, ineffective incentives and one-time effects Main reasons for the market development in Challenging economic scenario 2 Ineffective government incentives 3 Reduced demand during "special events" 4 Deteriorating exports to Argentina > High inflation, high interest rates and uncertain development of employment situation reduced consumer confidence to historic low > Difficult access to financing > Government market interventions (eg, IPI reduction or reduction of compulsory bank deposits) have limited impact on passenger car sales > Special events caused additional public holidays and resulted in negative impact on sales of cars and LCV (FIFA World Cup, late Carnival) > Impact of October elections not yet clear > Economic downturn in Argentina reduced exports from Brazil to Argentina Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 4

5 1 Economic scenario Over the next years, GDP growth in Brazil is unlikely to surpass 3-3.5% p.a. Slower growth pace challenges market players GDP growth Brazil [% p.a.] Brazilian growth phase Slowdown of growth Lower growth Increased uncertainty Itaú Bradesco Central Bank Comments > Brazil's growth was driven mainly by international primary commodity prices and strong local consumption > Since 2012, significant slow down of GDP growth: Worldwide economic slow down End of the commodity super-cycle Lower growth of local consumption > Low consumer confidence and unsecure economic perspectives Source: Banco Central do Brasil ( ); Itaú BBA ( ); Bradesco ( ) 5

6 1 Economic scenario The current macroeconomic challenges are reflected in the overall consumer confidence levels Historic lows in the last months Consumer confidence May 2011 August 2014 [Index 100 = May, 2011] May Aug Oct 98 Dez Index 100 = Mai, Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dez Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dez Feb Apr Jun Aug Key reasons > Uncertain economic development of Brazil > No clear vision of political future after elections > Increased public awareness of institutional shortcomings in Brazil > High uncertainty in labor market > July value might be positively influenced by World Cup Source: FGV; Roland Berger 6

7 2 Government incentives At a roundtable with automotive industry representatives in mid- April, President Rousseff signaled her willingness for support Government roundtable automotive industry 17. April 2014 Relevance automotive sector Share GDP 1) Jobs 2) 13,3% Government discussion in Brasilia, 17. April Supportive measures > Establishment of guarantee funds to cover defaults and Ministerial Decree ensuring quick access to vehicles > Reduction of minimum deposits at the Central Bank > Rastreador-technology (GPS tracker) will not be introduced > Planned IPI increase in July 2014 will not be carried out - however, a further reduction is also not expected 1) 2012 (latest publication: May 2013) 2) 2012 Source: IBGE; Labour and Employment Ministry (MTE); Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 7

8 2 3 Government incentives / Special events The automotive demand has decreased in the last years Government is trying to support demand with regulatory measures Automotive demand and regulatory/external influence Growth drivers > Increasing GDP > Emerge of a new middleclass IPI Reduction Saturation of IPI reduction IPI and new regulatory requirements (ABS, Airbag) = Price increase Carnival Postponement of IPI increase FIFA World Cup National elections > Increasing household incomes > Access to financing Before Year average Source: Renavam; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 8

9 4 Exports to Argentina Economic downturn of Argentina led to burst of the automotive bubble Reduced Argentina sales with strong impact on Brazil Development car sales, imports in Argentina and Brazilian exports [Jan-Aug; '000] Sales Imports Brazilian exports 1) -26% Argentina ) All exports, including to other countries -27% YTD Jan-Aug -39% Brazil Economic uncertainty in 2014 with direct impact on car sales and imports (decrease Year-to-Date by ~26%) with an accelerating impact month by month Brazil as the most important importer for Argentina impacted heavily >85% of Brazilian exports went to Argentina in 2013 Source: ACARA; ANFEAVEA; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 9

10 Overall, after a highly difficult year, we predict a moderate development in the Brazilian passenger car industry until 2018 Passengers and LCVs outlook Brazil, e [m units] Sales Production Long-term drivers: Return to moderate GDP growth after 2015 Rising consumers confidence Increased access to financing CAGR Long-term drivers: Inovar Auto / new plant investments Exchange rate development Recovery of Argentina CAGR Optimistic Scenario Conservative Scenario 3,4 3,6-12% ~ -8% 3,6 3,3 3,2 3,5 3,3 3,7 3,5 4,0 3,7 4,2 3,9 3.0% 1.5% 3,1 3,2-20% ~ -16% 3,5 3,1 2,8 3,3 3,0 3,5 3,2 3,7 3,4 3,9 3,6 2.1% 0.5% e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e Source: ANFAVEA; IHS; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 10

11 Price pressure Cost pressure The current volume drops affects the whole automotive value chain in Brazil Value chain impact of current market environment Main issues Value chain > Drastic market volume drop Market > Fierce competition between OEMs > High discounts and high pressure on prices > Overcapacity > High cost inflation (labor costs, etc.) > Exchange rate development OEMs Suppliers PROFITABILITY CHALLENGE FOR THE WHOLE AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN >... Raw material Source: Press clippings 11

12 Supplier profitability has been declining continuously over the last few years Restructuring shows first results for some companies EBIT margin development of suppliers in Brazil compared to world average [%] Brazil ~ % 3.1 World ~ ~ ~ % <0.0% for restructured companies and/or player with standalone positioning for companies that are not yet fully restructured and/or underinvested e Source: SINDIPEÇAS; global Roland Berger automotive supplier study 12

13 In order to support the profitability improvement of suppliers, quality plays an important role Key levers to improve supplier profitability TOP-LINE ACTIONS > Higher product quality at delivery and reliability (acquisition and retention) > Innovative products (shift of capacity from maintenance to development) > Superior service (extension of quality focus to sales and service) SUPPLIER PROFITABILITY #1 in Quality COST ITEMS > Reduce internal failure costs (scrap and rework) > Reduce external failure costs (warranty and field campaigns) > Increase productivity (freeup resources) MARKET SHARE PROFITABILITY 13

14 Throughout the entire value chain a large number of pressing issues are threatening customer perceived quality today Typical quality issues Zero-defect Reliability Customer experience Overall Define Design Supply Build Deliver > Quality organization not empowered > No comprehensive KPI system > No personal quality goals > Ineffective followup of detected issues > Missing quality awareness and skills > No systematic continuous improvement > No consideration of target customers' quality expectations > No lessons learned from current series > No reliability targets > Missing quality plan > Late inclusion of manufacturing, service, purchasing > No quality approval after each phase > Focus not on quality but on costs only > No supplier approval process > Insufficient quality testing of parts > No problem solving (issue fixing only) > Lack of quality contracting > Vast numbers of one-time issues > Outdated checklists > Inappropriate test equipment > No problem sol-ving (issue fixing only) > Missing quality incentives > No predelivery inspection > Logistic damages > No feedback loop to factory 14

15 To achieve the #1 position in customer perceived quality strong leadership is required Accountability, discipline and zero-defect culture within the entire organization (consequences: e.g. stop projects, quality before productivity, investment to quality) Strong Quality leadership on all management level (e.g. quality commitment, demonstration) Involvement of all employees to create personal ownership (requirements: e.g. training, skills, personal goals, change management) Quality in the "eyes" of the customer (product quality, reliability and customer care quality at all customer touch points)! Empowerment of Quality function as driver and customer's advocate (e.g. shift from "fire-fighting" to prevention) Sustainable and fast problem solving and adherence to standards (e.g. reduce time-to-fix, increase adherence to processes, cross-functional alignment etc.) 15

16 Quality Leadership Quality leadership covers more than products and services Commitment, mindset, cross-processes, organization, etc. Traditional and extended quality definition Quality as visible to the customer Competitive position in which the customer perceives the product and service quality of the company as leading compared to the competition Traditional quality definition Products "Top of the iceberg" Services Anchoring a 'zero defect culture' in the entire organization Shift from firefighting to prevention Extended quality definition Commitment, accountability and mindset Cross-functional process alignment Empowered quality organization Customer experience. Source: Roland Berger 16

17 1 Commitment, accountability and mindset Quality is first and foremost a leadership task requiring a significant change Quality is a journey that requires everyone to take ownership and to change patterns of working and thinking Source: Roland Berger 17

18 1 Commitment, accountability and mindset Quality leadership requires a clear commitment Our customers are repeat buyers We offer the best value to our customers We deliver what we promise we have a reputation that attracts new buyers! We deliver a reliable zero-defect product We provide a consistently superior level of service Source: Roland Berger 18

19 2 Cross-functional processes Prevention instead of reaction reduces cost Number of potential failure causes can be reduced by efficient failure filter Process (with defined roles and responsibility, methods and KPI) Series services Ramp-up Development/ planning Number of failure causes Potential failure = Trigger for quality issues 100 % Remaining risk Quality issue/-costs 30 % Phase 3: Debugging within the series 50 % Phase 1: Prevention within the product development Phase 2: Prevention within pre-series Defect in the failure filter: Source: Roland Berger 19

20 Design 2 Cross-functional processes Quality leadership has to be a core part of every step along the process Framework Process Design (Project example) Vision/strategy Target System Responsibility/ Organization Methods/System Communication Functional process Quality process Definition Feasibility Development Validation Implementation Evaluation Voice of the custom./user Technical specification Engineering change process Design for quality Early warning team/field team Problem solving, corrective actions and current product maintenance Aspects for Quality leadership > Harmonized target system > Measurable parameters along the process > Agreed KPI for relevant steps > > Consistent responsibility for quality across the process > Organizational structure based on the defined process > > Implementation of methods to support the process > Transparency regarding status and target gap > Documentation of necessary measured > > Involvement of Top- Management, create personal ownership > Clear messages > Motivation and involvement of all employees > Source: Roland Berger 20

21 3 Empowered quality organization Quality leadership requires the right empowerment of quality independent from the organizational design Degree of centralization Decentral Hybrid Central Organizational design R&D/ Engineering Functional areas Manufacturing/ Installation Sales/ aftersales R&D/ Engineering Functional areas Manufacturing/ Installation Sales/ aftersales R&D/ Engineering Functional areas Purchasing Purchasing Purchasing Manufacturing/ Installation Sales/ aftersales Development Q Supplier Q Manufacturing Q Sales/ aftersales Q Development Q Supplier Q Manufacturing Q Sales/ aftersales Q Quality Quality Quality Characteristics > Operational quality tasks in decentral quality departments only > Overarching quality controlling and methods coaching in central quality department > Strong functional organization of central quality department > Operational implementation in decentral quality departments in functional areas > All functional quality issues in central quality organization > Direct control of central quality department over all quality tasks and employees Pros/ cons + > Proximity of quality to operational tasks > - Weak standardization of KPIs, methods, and processes + > Standardized processes and KPIs > - Weak control of functional quality employees + > Fast implementation of methods and processes > Risk of disconnection of quality to operations - Source: Roland Berger 21

22 4 Customer quality perception Quality in the 'eyes' of the customer Customers perceive quality along the entire process Touchpoints for customer quality perception Sales advisory On-time delivery Product explanation Product performance Service Customer mgmt. Source: Roland Berger 22

23 To sum-up it up: Several questions have to be answered to achieve quality leadership 1 Commitment, accountability and mindset > Is quality an essential part of the corporate strategy? > Is there a common definition and understanding of quality? > Who is responsible for setting quality targets? > Are quality targets part of the management incentive system? > How important is quality to compared with other performance measures? > How are blue collar workers incentivized regarding quality KPIs? > 3 Empowerment of quality > What is the level of the leader of global quality function on corporate level? > To which function is the global quality organization attached to? > Which sub-functions are attached to the global quality function > What is the scope of functional responsibilities? > How is the reporting structure for quality related personnel? > How is the cooperation between regions/brands organized? > 2 Cross-functional processes > How is the quality function integrated in the product development process? > How is zero defect approach anchored? > How are service departments integrated? > Are for all process steps quality targets defined? > Is for each process step a quality responsible determined? > Are there cross-functional quality targets? > 4 Customer quality perception > Are there any recent initiatives regarding improving customers perceived quality? > Is the focus on internal or external quality KPIs? > How is the voice of the customer integrated in the product development process? > Is customer quality perceptions reported in all functions? > Source: Roland Berger 23

24 Success factors Critical success factors have been identified in order to reach international quality standards Quality transformation framework Executive-level support and responsibility Cross-functional coordination and team-work Empowerment of Quality function as the customer's advocate Accountability and discipline within the entire organization Motivation of all employees to create personal ownership Involvement and close alignment with suppliers Quality System fit with the corporate culture Source: Roland Berger 24

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