CARS 2020 Discussion Paper - Economic situation of the automotive industry in the EU

Transcription

1 Enterprise and Industry CARS 2020 Discussion Paper - Economic situation of the automotive industry in the EU Brussels, 25 February 2013

2 Macroeconomic situation in the EU Continuing crisis in several Member States and persisting uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone have a detrimental effect on the short-term economic outlook of most industries Little or negative economic growth, high unemployment, austerity measures and overall scepticism weaken the demand across the industrial sectors No exceptional pattern for the automotive industry which is reacting in the same way as other branches of industry From 2013, a gradual return to growth is expected: GDP is projected to increase by 0.1% in the EU however contract by 0.3% in the Eurozone

3 Triple dip in car sales in the European markets» Source: Global Insight

4 Triple dip in car sales in the European markets Sharp decline of the new vehicles registration in comparison to already very weak demand in For passenger cars the decline of 8,2% leads to a fifth consecutive year of decline Total sales of passenger cars in 2012 (12,1 million units) 20% lower than the pre-crisis levels (15,6 million units in 2007) Forecasts for 2013 are not optimistic (further decline of 2%) however second half of the decade should be be marked by a market recovery

5 Strong falls in sales of vans, trucks and L-category vehicles Commercial vehicles in a downward trend: -8% of sales in 2012 Bleak economic outlook weakens the sales of heavy duty vehicles decline of 9,4% in 2012 L-category vehicles follow the market trend and register a sharp decline of 24% in 2012

6 Production in the EU follows the falling trend» Source: Global Insight

7 Production of LDV in the EU In 2012, the production of light duty vehicles fell by almost 6% reaching 15,8 million units. Further decline of 5% envisaged for Despite recovery in the second part of the decade precrisis levels will not be reached before 2020 Falling production volumes aggravate the problem of overcapacity leading to constantly growing costs and reduced profitability of car manufacturers.

8 Overcapacity - production and capacity utilisation Production (forecast) 2012 Reported straight time capacity utilisation Production with "sustainable" 75% utilisation VW % Production gap in comparison to "sustainable" utilisation Renault-Nissan % PSA % Ford % Daimler % GM % BMW % Fiat % Hyundai-Kia % Toyota % Jaguar-Land Rover % Honda % TOTAL Source: Global Insight

9 Employment in the automotive sector Source: Eurostat Recovery after sharp decline between 2008 and 2010 due to an introduction of the flexible work schemes

10 Employment in the automotive sector Uncertain perspectives due to necessary restructuring decisions ahead Several OEMs have already announced restructuring plans and plant closures Reduction of workforce by the car manufacturers will follow cuts in the employment across the entire supply chain Multiplier effect according recent study a number of jobs lost across the sector will be 2,7 times higher than the actual workforce reduction in a car manufacturing plant

11 International markets source of growth and profits Source: Global Insight Growth in the international markets especially in BRIC countries

12 International markets source of growth and profits Export softens the consequences of the falling demand in Europe but cannot fully substitute the decreasing volumes

13 International markets source of growth and profits Source: Eurostat Trade balance in motor vehicles growing over last years reaching 91 billion in 2011 and more than 100 billion in 2012

14 QUESTIONS 1. Is this an accurate analysis and what is the complementary analysis on the situation of suppliers and specific categories of vehicles (i.e. heavy duty and L-category vehicles)? 2. Taking into account the recent developments as well as current forecasts about macro-economic and automotive markets recovery, is the CARS 2020 Action Plan still well-suited to tackle the challenges linked to restructuring and boosting growth? 3. What are the current strategies of the automotive companies in tackling the overcapacity? Are the current restructuring processes adequate to tackle the overcapacity problem? 4. Are there complementary actions needed on the level of Member States and regions? 5. Is there a possibility of a European approach in tackling the overcapacity problem? Should there be guiding principles for tackling the overcapacity? 6. How should the social effects of restructuring be best tackled? Is there a possibility of a European approach or exchange of best practices is more suitable?