On Point. Brazil Industrial High-end Warehouses Outlook through st half Real Estate Research 1H 2014

Transcription

1 On Point Real Estate Research 1H 2014 Brazil Industrial High-end Warehouses Outlook through st half 2014 Total stock Brazil 24.1 million m² New stock delivered Brazil 1.1 million m² New stock forecast through 2017 Brazil 14.8 million m² New stock forecast through 2017 São Paulo 8.1 million m² Vacancy rate São Paulo 13.4% New stock forecast through 2017 Rio de Janeiro 2.8 million m² Vacancy rate Rio de Janeiro 5.2%

2 2 On Point 1 st half 2014 Growth of the markets Outlook through Brazil Brazil s largest concentration of logistics warehouses continues to be found in the Southeast region, followed by the Northeast and South. An analysis of new stock expected for delivery through 2017 indicates that this trend will continue. São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Paraná will have the greatest volumes of warehousing space in 2017, with 76% of total national stock. Bahia and Ceará lead the ranking of states with the greatest expected proportional increase in stock through 2017, with growth of 96% and 95% respectively in their volumes of industrial warehousing. Together, the two states will receive 1.2 million m² of new stock MM m² 2 nd half New stock delivered Brazil 1H 2014 AA & A RJ 29% PR 9% RS 5% MG 5% GO 5% ES 2% SP 43% TT 1.1 MM m² New stock Southeast leads delivery of new property Approximately 1.1 million m² of space was delivered nationwide in the first half of The second half of this year is expected to see delivery of 2.7 million m², an amount equal to the total new stock delivered in The Campinas, Jundiaí and Cajamar regions accounted for almost 400,000 m² of the new stock delivered in São Paulo during the first half. In Rio de Janeiro, the main regions receiving new stock were Queimados and Duque de Caxias. Next-placed states in terms of new stock were Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais. Projected new stock Brazil 2H AA &A 20.3 CAGR 13.94% Total new stock 2S : 14.8* MM m² Delivered - 1H2014 New Supply stock * Estimate

3 On Point 1 st half Rental prices by state AA & A , , ,00 3% Classes AA & A: R$20.86 / m² (-1.1%*) , , , , ,00 SP RJ BA PR PE MG CE RS AM SC ES GO PB DF PA General Total total Geral *compared with previous half-year Prices Brazil AA & A Nationwide rental asking prices for high-end warehousing fell by 1.1% compared with the second half of 2013, to an average of R$20.86/m²/month. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the states with the largest volumes of warehousing space, saw their prices fall by 2.3% and 1.6% respectively. Rental values in other states fluctuated slightly, remaining virtually stable. The average rental price in the Northeast was R$15.97/m²/month, while in the South it was R$17.86/m²/month. Vacancy Brazil AA & A Nationwide vacancy in logistics warehouses rose very slightly during the first half of 2014, but can be seen as essentially stable against the previous six-month period. New stock delivered to market since the end of 2013 exhibits very high levels of vacancy, which could indicate a slow-down in the rate of absorption. Espírito Santo, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul states saw the biggest percentage falls in vacancy. Vacancy by state AA & A 40,0% 40.0% 35,0% 35.0% 30,0% 30.0% 2H H2014 Availability Adjusted vacancy rate - 1H ,0% 25.0% 20,0% 20.0% 15,0% 15.0% 10,0% 10.0% 10.9% 10.6% 5,0% 5.0% 0,0% 0.0% SP RJ PE MG PR BA AM CE RS ES SC GO DF

4 Million m² 4 On Point 1st half 2014 Regional logistics and highways map for São Paulo AA & A Evolution of the highway corridors São Paulo In São Paulo, the country s principal market, a total of 500,000 m² of new high-end warehousing was delivered to market in the first half of This was less than expected, and equal to half of the stock delivered in the previous six-month period. Rental values fell by 2.3% in São Paulo compared to the second half of 2013, with a statewide average of R$21.83/m²/month. Greatest variations came in Campinas, Jundiaí and Barueri regions. The vacancy rate rose by 0.8 of a percentage point to 13.4% in the first half of This rate is likely to remain steady through the second half. Expectations are for the state to receive around 8 million m² of new stock through the next three years, located mainly along the Anhanguera-Bandeirantes, Dom Pedro I and Dutra-Ayrton Senna highway corridors. BR-374 SP-348 SOROCABA CAMPINAS ITU SP-075 CAJAMAR ARAÇARIGUAMA BR-116 SP-330 ATIBAIA JUNDIAÍ BARUERI COTIA SÃO PAULO ABCDM SP-160 BR-381 GUARULHOS SP-150 SP-065 SANTOS SÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS SP-070 BR-116 Rodoanel (metro region beltway) Under construction 2º Rodoanel 40,00 35,00 New stock and rental prices by region AA & A 27,5 See the highways index at the foot of page 6 30,00 24, ,0 23,4 TT 21.6 MM m² 23,3 22, ,5 2, , ,52, , , , , , , , , ,2 22, , , , , % 20,9 10% 19,7 13% 18, ,3 60% 6% 15,6 16,2 2% ,7 0,6 0, ,4 0, , ,00 25,00 35,00 20,00 30,00 15,00 25,00-20,00 10,00 15,00 5,00 10,00 5,00 - Inventory Stock 1H H Average asking rental price (R$ / m² / month)

5 Million m² On Point 1 st half Regional logistics and highways map for Rio de Janeiro AA &A Development of the regions Rio de Janeiro ITATIAIA RESENDE BR-040 CAMPOS DOS GOYTACAZES MACAÉ Rio de Janeiro state received some 300,000 m² of new stock in the first half of 2014, no less than three times the volume registered in the previous six months. Expectations for the next six months are for delivery of another 200,000 m² of logistics warehouses, so increasing statewide stock by 17% over the end of New space will be concentrated mainly along the Dutra-RJ corridor. The Duque de Caxias region currently has the greatest volume of warehousing space in the state. By 2017, however, it is likely to overtaken by the Seropédica region, which is due to receive 1.1 m² of new space. Rental prices fell during the half-year to R$22.29/m²/month. Jacarepaguá and Duque de Caxias regions once again registered the highest average rental values, at R$30.00/m²/month and R$27.48/m²/month, respectively. The vacancy rate rose by 2.2 percentage points, to 5.2%. BR-116 QUEIMADOS NOVA SEROPÉDICA IGUAÇU BELFORD ROXO ITAGUAÍ PAVUNA DUQUE DE CAXIAS CAMPO IRAJÁ GRANDE Av. Brasil Linha Amarela JACAREPAGUÁ RIO MAGÉ BR-101 Arco metropolitano (expressway) See the highways index at the foot of page 6 New stock by highway corridor AA & A 1,4 53% 79% 98% TT 5.9 MM m² 35,00 1, , ,0 25,00 0, ,00 0,6 15,00 0,4 10,00 0,2 5,00 0,0 Dutra-RJ Av. Brasil Washington Luiz Linha Amarela Stock Inventory 1H2014 2H Average asking rental price (R$( // m² sqm / month) / -

6 On Point Publicação periódica do Departamento de Pesquisa JLL Periodical publication by JLL Research Department Executivo responsável Executive in charge Ricardo Hirata Colaboradores Staff Cindi Leal, Débora Costa, Eduardo Miyamoto, Samia Obelenis, Vagner Porto Todos os direitos reservados Reprodução permitida desde que citada a fonte. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC Reproduction allowed provided that the source is mentioned. Real estate research The businesses and services of JLL are driven by knowledge. Our extensive investments in research help guide real estate development and the investment strategies of our clients. The Global Research Department supervises and coordinates the activities of more than 350 research professionals covering the markets in 70 countries. In Brazil, the Jones Lang LaSalle Research team conducts periodic fieldwork to gather information on the warehouse market in major cities and maintains a constantly updated database. This effort is designed to ensure a supply of the most precise information and to support quality analysis for decision-making. Warehouse classification There is no accepted norm or standard for the classification of warehouses, or for associated terminology. Jones Lang LaSalle divides logistics warehouses into classes AA, A and B, based on analysis and the weighted quantification of characteristics. The company does not use other terms found in the market, for example Triple-A or A+. Class AA: Floor loading greater than five tonnes per square meter, acoustic and thermal insulation, free headroom (floor to ceiling) equal to or greater than 12 meters, laser leveled floor, one dock per 1,000 sqm, adjustable-height docks, sprinkler system, distance between pillars equal to or greater than 22.5 meters, natural lighting, artificial lighting in warehouse equal to or greater than 300 lux, artificial office lighting equal to or greater than 500 lux, mechanical warehouse ventilation equal to or greater than six air changes per hour, generator. Class A: Floor loading greater than four tonnes per square meter, acoustic and thermal insulation, free headroom (floor to ceiling) equal to or greater than 10 meters, laser leveled floor, one dock per 1,000 sqm, natural lighting, artificial lighting in warehouse equal to or greater than 300 lux, artificial office lighting equal to or greater than 500 lux, mechanical warehouse ventilation equal to or greater than six air changes per hour, generator The information contained in this publication was obtained from published material relating to the property market, commercial brochures, information on the websites of projects and developers, telephone contacts and field research. Data was compiled using statistical methods developed by Jones Lang LaSalle. Jones Lang LaSalle cannot accept responsibility for any change of schedule by the developers that participated in the research or for the accuracy of data and information provided and/or released by the developers themselves. Glossary Total stock: Total square meters of built warehousing area. Vacancy rate: Empty warehousing space, as a percentage of total warehousing stock. Asking price: Price per square meter of constructed area, asked by the owner for rent or sale. New stock: Square meters of space delivered or forecast for delivery in a specific period. Net absorption: Real increase or decrease in space occupied, measured between periods. Gross absorption: Indicates the total occupation occurring during a specified period. Constructed area: Includes total area of sheds, mezzanine, marquise or canopy, and support areas Highways BR 116 (northeast of São Paulo): Rodovia Presidente Dutra BR 116 (west of Rio de Janeiro): Rodovia Presidente Dutra BR 116 (southeast): Rodovia Régis Bittencourt BR 374: Rodovia Castello Branco BR 381: Rodovia Fernão Dias BR 040: Rodovia Washington Luiz BR 101: Rodovia Governador Mário Covas SP 330: Rodovia Anhanguera SP 348: Rodovia dos Bandeirantes SP 070: Rodovia Carvalho Pinto / Ayrton Senna SP 065: Rodovia Dom Pedro I SP 075: Rodovia Santos Dumont SP 160: Rodovia dos Imigrantes SP 150: Rodovia Anchieta