SCADA, M2M via Satellite, 3 rd Edition Evaluating Traditional and Emerging Opportunities for All Satellite Platforms Report Briefing

Transcription

1 Evaluating Traditional and Emerging Opportunities for All Satellite Platforms Report Briefing

2 Report Description NSR's 3rd installment of the SCADA/M2M via Satellite report provides a critical analysis of satellite-based SCADA/M2M platforms. This report takes an in-depth look at shifting markets, cost considerations, application targets and end user requirements in 7 distinct vertical markets for satellite-based SCADA/M2M. NSR's analysis enables service providers, equipment vendors and other market players to protect their current market position and stay ahead of the game by exploring new verticals for increased long term revenue potential. SCADA/M2M via Satellite-3 answers the key questions concerning the satellite SCADA and M2M market: How will the market evolve? What is the effect of the market's changing requirements on revenue prospects? Which technology solutions will be preferred over time? The study is a valuable resource that: NEW in this Edition: Civil Government Demand o Environmental Monitoring & Climate change o Internal Security, Police & Coast Guard Green Energy Market Mining Sector Market New format: easy to navigate, concise but still rich content, presented in Microsoft PowerPoint is beneficial to all industry players that need deeper insights into current and future solutions sets that will change the SCADA/M2M market; offers an assessment of end user requirements for unique vertical applications; and provides the impact of "push technologies" on current platforms and the shape of future market dynamics. $Revenues (billions) $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Total SCADA/M2M/LDR via Satellite Market Revenues Units Units (millions) $ Source: NSR

3 Key Assessments Undertaken Include: Key anchor vertical markets and expected trends as well as how the outlook of the industry will evolve Emerging market verticals that could drive future growth Next-generation programs including Iridium NEXT and HTS SCADA/M2M via Satellite-3 includes the following analytical elements: In-service unit forecasts Forecast by vertical market ARPU movements & trends Bandwidth requirements for application verticals Demand trends & ten-year forecasts by application, region, and frequency band New applications and markets Detailed Analysis Backed by the Latest Data Each vertical market's detailed assessment relies on the very latest results reported by key vendors and market leaders of targeted SCADA/M2M application segments. These results create the comprehensive quantitative and qualitative foundation from which SCADA/M2M via Satellite- 3's trends and market forecasts are drawn.

4 Key Features NSR's SCADA/M2M-3 Report Data Segmentation Who Should Purchase the Report? Satellite Service Providers Satellite Operators Satellite Equipment Manufacturers Technology Companies Terrestrially-based SCADA/M2M Service Providers Wireless Trade Associations A Complete Analytical Perspective Elements of this Study Include: A Complete PowerPoint report document containing all quantitative and qualitative analysis A Market Summary document containing an overview of the report findings and recommendations An Excel file containing all data and graphs so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections

5 Executive Summary Market Overview Demand for satellite-based SCADA/M2M services is on the rise given the needs of key vertical markets. In terms of a market snapshot, the exhibit below shows that the market is expected to grow at a steady pace with CAGR levels at single-digit levels. One could conclude that the overall market is not dynamic but rather stable, steady and unchanging. $3 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Revenues( $billions) Units (millions) 6.0 Revenues ($billions) $2 $ Units (millions) $ Source : NSR Demand Shift in Market Verticals When verticals are broken out, however, the market can be considered mixed where certain verticals show steady growth, while others exhibit highly dynamic prospects. CAGR levels for Green Energy, Mining, the Utility Industry and Civil Government are expected to display higher rates typical of nascent markets. Transportation & Cargo and Oil & Gas are expected to show stable growth, while the Military vertical is expected to show the slowest growth. There is likely a market shift in the segment or vertical breakout of demand. The dominant Transportation/Cargo vertical is still expected to hold steady revenue shares within the forecast period. However, the big shift takes place from Military towards Green Energy, Mining and the Utility Industry. Civil Government and Oil & Gas are expected to gain some ground as well

6 SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues, by Segment 2011 Utility Industry, 2% Military, 34% Oil & Gas, 18% Civil Govt, 4% Green Energy, 0.2% Mining, 0.5% Transportation, 41% Source: NSR Utility Industry, 5% SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues, by Segment 2021 Military, 16% Civil Govt, 6% Oil & Gas, 17% Green Energy, 11% Mining, 5% Transportation, 41% Source: NSR

7 Regional Demand Shift from North America to Asia Pacific There is also a market shift in the regional breakout of demand. The dominant Transportation/Cargo vertical has been a North American proposition that is spreading to Europe and likely remains a developed country offering. Except for the Asia Pacific, other regions are expected to hold steady shares. North America Europe Percentage (%) of Revenues by Region Latin America Asia Pacific Middle East/Africa AOR POR IOR % 17% 6.8% 7.5% 13% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 7% 7% 12% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 6% 7% 12% 2% 2% 1% % 16% 6% 8% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 6% 8% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 6% 8% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 6% 8% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 7% 9% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 7% 10% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 8% 12% 11% 2% 2% 1% % 17% 8% 14% 11% 2% 2% 1% Total 50% 17% 7% 9% 11% 2% 2% 1% Source: NSR Over time, the Utility industry, the Green Energy sector and Mining activities should lead to a regional shift towards the Asia Pacific where most of the energy needs and resource exploration will be taking place. Outlook with Minor Shift in Frequency Mix In terms of the frequency mix, L-band is expected to dominate the market by a wide margin for both in-service units and revenues. For all market verticals, except Green Energy where Ku-band is expected to be the dominant platform, L-band is expected to be the solution of choice given the advantage of small antenna systems as well as the need to support fairly low data rate applications. Ku-band is expected to account for the second highest number of installations. Ku-band is present in the transportation sector and other applications that call for higher data rates such as CCTV for surveillance, and the aggregation of narrowband sensor data similar to a wireless backhaul model should add to its market potential as well.

8 C-band is a niche solution used in Latin America by Qualcomm. NSR does not see a large uptake in C-band for the entire SCADA/M2M market, where the proposition is likely to remain serving its current niche in the Latin American transportation sector. Finally, HTS is a niche frequency as well, which is expected to leverage the inroads made by Ku-band. Basically, the proposition is for higher data solutions for lower costs. There is an expectedly slight market shift in the frequency mix with marginal increases in Ku-band and HTS revenues. Although the market shift and forecasts for HTS are currently conservative, these dynamics can change over the long term. The key lies in a more conscious and deliberate effort by the HTS providers to target SCADA/M2M more significantly. SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues, by Frequency 2011 L band, 63% HTS, 0.002% C band, 0.1% Ku band, 37% Source: NSR

9 SCADA/M2M is inherently narrowband where bandwidth requirements and packages will continue to reflect these needs over the long term. However, the use of Ku-band and the availability of HTS are currently changing the solution mix where broadband platforms are being delivered and installed to serve narrowband needs. The key lies in attractive service and equipment packages as well as the ability to upgrade or seamlessly tap broadband applications such as CCTV as a bundle should requirements such as security prove beneficial for future needs. In a sense, the main missions for SCADA/M2M are narrowband, yet a broadband platform with competitive cost structures provides end users the flexibility to upgrade and adopt applications seamlessly over current IP VSAT and HTS solutions. For key verticals such as Green Energy and Mining, niche opportunities for HTS are expected over the long term.

10 Table of Contents Total Market Forecasts & Trends Total SCADA/M2M Forecasts Market Forecasts by Vertical Market Forecasts by Frequency Transportation / Cargo Market Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements Oil & Gas Market Introduction Key Market Trends: Where & what is the addressable market? Key Market Trends: Where will the Terminals be by Region? Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements Utility Industry Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements

11 Green Energy Market Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements Military Market Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Segment Application & Market Requirements Civil Government Market Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements Mining Industry Market Introduction Key Market Trends Value Proposition by Frequency Application & Market Requirements

12 List of Exhibits Ex. 1.1 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 1.2 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Vertical Market, Ex. 1.3 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Vertical Market, Ex. 1.4 SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Segment, 2011 Ex. 1.5 SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Segment, 2021 Ex. 1.6 SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Segment, 2011 Ex. 1.7 SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Segment, 2021 Ex. 1.8 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 1.9 Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex Global SCADA/M2M via Satellite ARPU Levels by Vertical Market, Ex Global SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Global SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Region, 2011 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Units by Region, 2021 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex SCADA/M2M SATCOM Revenues by Region, 2021 Ex. 2.1 Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 2.2 Cell Sites in the U.S., Ex. 2.3 Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 2.4 Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 2.5 Transportation & Cargo Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 2.6 Transportation & Cargo Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 2.7 Transportation & Cargo Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 2.8 Transportation & Cargo Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 2.9 Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M via Satellite Annual ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Transportation & Cargo SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Transportation & Cargo Units by Region, 2011 Ex Transportation & Cargo Units by Region, 2021 Ex Transportation & Cargo Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Transportation & Cargo Revenues by Region, 2021

13 Ex. 3.1 Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M Market, Ex. 3.2 Oil & Gas Terminals by Segment, 2011 Ex. 3.3 Oil & Gas Active Terminals by Region, 2011 Ex. 3.4 O&G In-service Units by Region, 2016 Ex. 3.5 O&G In-service Units by Region, 2021 Ex. 3.6 Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 3.7 Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 3.8 O&G Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 3.9 O&G Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex O&G In-service Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex O&G In-service Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Annual ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite End Users, Applications & Value Proposition Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Current & Future Bandwidth Requirements Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Application, Bandwidth & Frequency Fit Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M via Satellite Regional Overview Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Oil & Gas SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex O&G In-service Units by Region, 2011 Ex O&G In-service Units by Region, 2021 Ex O&G In-service Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex O&G In-service Revenues by Region, 2021 Ex. 4.1 Utility Industry SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 4.2 Global Electricity Generation by Fuel, Ex. 4.3 Utility Industry SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 4.4 Utility Industry SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 4.5 Utility Industry Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 4.6 Utility Industry Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 4.7 Utility Industry Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 4.8 Utility Industry Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 4.9 Utility Industry SCADA/M2M Annual ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex Utility Industry Applications & Value Proposition Ex Utility Industry Bandwidth Requirements & Characteristics Ex Utility Industry Application and Bandwidth Requirements Ex Utility Industry SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Utility Industry SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Utility Industry Units by Region, 2011 Ex Utility Industry Units by Region, 2021 Ex Utility Industry Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Utility Industry Revenues by Region, 2021

14 Ex. 5.1 Green Energy SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 5.2 Share of Total Primary Energy Supply Ex. 5.3 Renewable Energy Capacity Forecasts, Ex. 5.4 Green Energy SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 5.5 Green Energy SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 5.6 Green Energy Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 5.7 Green Energy Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 5.8 Green Energy Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 5.9 Green Energy Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex Green Energy SCADA/M2M Annual ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex Green Energy End User Application Requirements & Value Proposition Ex Green Energy SCADA/M2M Application & Bandwidth Requirements Ex Green Energy SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Green Energy SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Green Energy Units by Region, 2011 Ex Green Energy Units by Region, 2021 Ex Green Energy Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Green Energy Revenues by Region, 2021 Ex Renewable Energy Targets of Sub Saharan Africa Countries Ex. 6.1 Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 6.2 U.S. Overseas Contingency Operations Discretionary Budget, Ex. 6.3 Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Segment, Ex. 6.4 Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Segment, Ex. 6.5 Military Revenues by Segment, 2011 Ex. 6.6 Military Revenues by Segment, 2021 Ex. 6.7 Military Units by Segment, 2011 Ex. 6.8 Military Units by Segment, 2021 Ex. 6.9 Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Annual ARPU Levels by Segment, Ex Military Applications & Value Proposition Ex Military Application & Bandwidth Requirements Ex Military SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Military SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Military Units by Region, 2011 Ex Military Units by Region, 2021 Ex Military Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Military Revenues by Region, 2021 Ex Middle East/Africa Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex Middle East/Africa Military SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues,

15 Ex. 7.1 Civil Government SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 7.2 Military &Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Units in the Globe, Ex. 7.3 Military &Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Revenues in Middle East/Africa, Ex. 7.4 Civil Govt SCADA/M2M via Satellite Units by Frequency, Ex. 7.5 Civil Govt SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 7.6 Civil Govt Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 7.7 Civil Govt Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 7.8 Civil Government Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 7.9 Civil Government Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex Civil Govt SCADA/M2M via Satellite ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex Civil Govt Applications & Value Proposition Ex Civil Govt LAND SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex Civil Govt AERO SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex Civil Govt MARITIME SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex Civil Government Application & Bandwidth Trends Ex Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Civil Government Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Civil Government Revenues by Region, 2021 Ex Middle East/Africa Civil Govt SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex Middle East/Africa Civil Govt SCADA/M2M via Satellite Revenues, Ex Military & Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Units in the Middle East/Africa, Ex Military & Civil Govt SCADA/M2M Revenues in the Middle East/Africa, Ex. 8.1 Mining Industry SCADA/M2M via Satellite Market, Ex. 8.2 Mining Industry SCADA/M2M Units by Frequency, Ex. 8.3 Mining Industry SCADA/M2M Revenues by Frequency, Ex. 8.4 Mining & Heavy Equipment Units by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 8.5 Mining & Heavy Equipment Units by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 8.6 Mining & Heavy Equipment Revenues by Frequency, 2011 Ex. 8.7 Mining & Heavy Equipment Revenues by Frequency, 2021 Ex. 8.8 Mining Industry SCADA/M2M via Satellite Annual ARPU Levels by Frequency, Ex. 8.9 Mining Industry Applications & Value Proposition Ex Mining Industry Application & Bandwidth Requirements Ex Mining Industry SCADA/M2M Units by Region, Ex Mining Industry SCADA/M2M Revenues by Region, Ex Mining & Heavy Equipment Units by Region, 2011 Ex Mining & Heavy Equipment Units by Region, 2021 Ex Mining & Heavy Equipment Revenues by Region, 2011 Ex Mining & Heavy Equipment Revenues by Region, 2021