AUGUST CLOSER LOOK SERIES: Open Top Hoppers SAMPLE

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3 AUGUST 217 The North American Open Top Hopper (OTH) fleet totaled x cars as of January 217, down from x in 213, a reduction. The Coal OTH fleet is the largest fleet segment, totaling x cars, which represent of the overall OTH fleet. Coal OTHs are further divided into three primary groups: Aluminum Coal, Steel Coal, and Hybrid Coal. The remaining OTHs fall into the Other OTH segment, which totals x cars, or of the fleet. The Other OTH segment is further segmented based on cubic capacity ranges and tonnage capacity. Total carloads in OTH have decreased over the last ten years at a AAGR. The largest user of OTHs, the mining industry, generated x carloads, or of all OTH traffic, in 216. Coal, the primary commodity for the OTH fleet, generated over x carloads in 216, or of all OTH traffic. Retirements of OTH averaged about x cars per year between 1998 and 27. As a result of declining coal shipments retirements have increased to about x per year since the 28 recession. The surplus grew from x in 214 to x cars in 216 while fleet utilization fell from to. The surplus currently stands at x cars. The OTH fleet has an average age of x years, with the majority of younger cars skewed toward the more recently built Aluminum and Hybrid Coal segments. Railroads own the largest portion of the OTH fleet, with a ownership share. Leasing companies and shippers own and, respectively. New OTH deliveries totaled x cars in 216, nearly twice the total deliveries in 214, x cars. Deliveries are projected to increase slightly over the period, averaging x cars per year. Carloads () 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 OTH Traffic by Equipment Type 216 Carloadings Aluminum/ Steel Coal Ore Hybrid Coal OTH OTH OTH Source: STB Waybill, FTR, AllTranstek; x carloads Small Agg.OTH Large Agg. OTH Large Cap. OTH High Cap. OTH Carloads () 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Other OTH Traffic by Industry Segment 216 Carloadings Mining Petrochemical Forest Products Transportation Manufacturing Metal Source: STB Waybill, FTR, AllTranstek; x carloads Industry Traffic Open Top Hopper Source: STB Waybill, FTR, AllTranstek; x carloads Mining Petrochemical 2

4 AUGUST 217 CHARACTERISTICS. The Small Aggregate OTH fleet segment totals x cars, accounting for of the overall OTH fleet and about of the Other OTH fleet. CAPACITY. These cars have cubic footage capacity of cuf. About have 23 cuf capacity, are , at cuf, and are have 24 cuf capacity. About of Small Aggregate OTHs have 263k Grl capacity, while are 286k Grl. The remaining cars are rated at 268k Grl at, and 22 Grl or 7 Ton at. AGE. The Small Aggregate OTH fleet segment has an av- Fleet Demographics erage age of x years. The median car is x-years-old, having been built in 19xx. Small Aggregate OTH cuf About of this fleet is younger than x-years-old. E 286k OWNERSHIP. The railroads own the majority share of this fleet, with, or more than x cars. SA M 7T Source: Umler, AllTranstek; x cars Shippers own and lessors account for the rest of this fleet, or x and x cars, respectively. PL 263k CSXT owns the largest railroad share, as well as the largest overall share of this fleet, with and, respectively, or x cars. Age Profile Small Aggregate OTH cuf 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: Umler, AllTranstek, x cars 3

5 AUGUST 217 Ownership Profile Small Agg. OTH cuf Shippers Small Lessors SMBC R ail GATX Rail CIT Rail Trinity Ind. Wells Fargo R ail Class II/III R ailroads Kansas City Southern CP Rai l Canadian National Union Pacific BNSF CSXT 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 Source: Umler, AllTranstek, x cars PL The next largest railroad share is owned by Norfolk Southern with x cars, or of the total Small Aggregate OTH fleet. E Norfolk Southern The Class II/III railroads combine for of this fleet, or x cars. M Wells Fargo Rail owns the largest lessor share with, or about x cars. GATX follows closely with, or nearly x cars. SA The Other small leasing companies combined own of this fleet, or x cars. Total traffic for the Small Aggregate OTH fleet was x carloads in 216. Since 27, loadings in these cars have dropped dramatically from almost x carloads in 27 to x carloads in 216, at a AAGR, or an overall decline of. Unit train shipments were still high for the Small Aggregate OTH fleet, at. However, only of shipment volume moved in 1+ car unit trains. The car unit trains and 5-74 car unit trains represented and, respectively. Fleet Ownership Commodity Traffic Small Aggregate OTH cuf Small Aggregate OTH cuf Railroads Shippers Crushed Stone Phosphate Rock Lessors Sand Other Source: Umler, AllTranstek; x cars Gravel Source: STB Waybill, FTR; AllTranstek; x carloads Iron Concentrates 4

6 AUGUST 217 () Carloads Source: STB Waybill, AllTranstek Traffic by Industry Small Aggregate OTH cuf Other Mining AAGR -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Multiple car units of 2-24 cars accounted for while shipments made in shuttle train service of cars were. Less than of traffic moves in single car service. In 27, trips per year averaged x for this fleet. This average dropped to x in 29. Since then, it increased very slowly each year to an average of x in 215, before dropping slightly to a x average in 216. Shipment Size Small Aggregate OTH cuf 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % The Aggregate OTH car segment consists of cars built specifically for crushed stone and other aggregate services. The Small Aggregate car is considered to be 21 to 24 cuf in size, which represents mostly the significant configurations that historically entered service for the transportation of aggregates. It also carved a distinct niche for the transportation of phosphate rock. Aggregate hoppers are in tight supply/demand balance, spurring new car construction over the last several years, and for which domestic infrastructure investment holds additional promise. This creates new demand for the Large Aggregate OTHs. Lessor participation in the this segment is limited, so lease fleets are not a likely source for equipment. The Small Aggregate OTH fleet saw high replacement demand over the period. However, since then new car deliveries have almost disappeared. This fleet only saw x new Small Aggregate OTH delivered over the period, while about x cars were retired. This resulted in a fleet decline from x in January 213 to x in the same month of 217. Retirements in the Small Aggregate OTH fleet over are projected to total x cars. Deliveries for the period are expected to total about x cars, with a build-to-retirement ratio of x to 1. A fleet decline, at AAGR, is expected for the forecast period, with a 221 year end fleet total of x cars. New Delivery Owner Profile Small Aggregate OTH cuf Unit Train 1+ cars Unit Train cars Class I Railroad Unit 5-74 cars Shuttle Train cars Shipper Multiple Car 2-24 cars Single Car 5, 1, 15, Source: STB Waybill, FTR, AllTranstek, x carloads Source: Umler, AllTranstek Class II/III Railroad 5

7 AUGUST 217 1,4 New Car Deliveries Small Aggregate OTH cuf 1,2 Retirements Small Aggregate OTH cuf 1,2 1, 1, Index Source: FTR, AllTranstek Aggregate OTHs have a notable potential for growth, and are considered to be in tight supply. Construction, particularly with respect to roads and other infrastructure projects, has favorable prospects, which should continue to benefit the segment, particularly with respect to the Large Aggregate hoppers that have become the primary type for new construction. Competition among lessors for this business is strong, although some shippers continue to purchase equipment as well. The consumption of aggregates has trended in a positive direction. Domestic infrastructure development has the potential to expand aggregate use, particularly for road construction and stone consuming projects of that nature. The small aggregate OTHs have the potential to remain in very strong demand, particularly because of the upcoming prospects for high age related retirements within the existing fleet. In fact, age-related retirements 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Car Demand Pressure Index Small Agg. OTH cuf Fleet Size and Carloads Indexed to Trips Per Year Source: FTR, AllTranstek have the potential to be quite disruptive to the affected users. While most new Aggregate car builds will likely consist of the Large Aggregate hopper, there may be some opportunities for new additions among the Small Aggregate cars. The prospects for a dearth of available cars for reassignment by lessors, is likely to mean that that lease rates and equipment values for the cars should remain strong. One thing to watch is the fact that there is modal competition from trucking within this segment. Rail movement advantages typically require high volume, moderate distance moves. Since aggregates are produced within all regions of the continental United States, rail usage can often be challenged. 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Fleet Growth Small Aggregate OTH cuf Trips Per Year Fleet Size Carloads Source: Umler, STB Waybill, AllTranstek 5, Car supply for this fleet has remained stable since before the recession unlike traffic which declined greatly during the recession. Traffic has since leveled out but a surplus of cars exists due to decreased utilization. Jan '13 Fleet New Cars Source: UMLER, FTR, AllTranstek Retirements Jan '17 Fleet New Cars Retirements Jan '22 Fleet 6