Transport Select Committee Inquiry: Rail Technology Written Evidence from Network Rail 6 April 2015

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1 Transport Select Committee Inquiry: Rail Technology Written Evidence from Network Rail 6 April 2015 For enquiries regarding this submission, please contact: Guy Lavis, Senior Public Affairs Manager, Digital Railway Programme guy.lavis@networkrail.co.uk SUMMARY At peak times on the busiest parts of the network, Britain s railway is full. Hundreds of thousands of passengers suffer overcrowding every day and the rail freight industry, vital to the national economy, suffers from a shortage of pathways which causes slow journeys. New capacity is urgently required to meet the continued rise in demand which will mean there will be an extra one billion journeys a year by Conventional ways of providing this capacity by building new railway infrastructure would be hugely disruptive, very high cost and probably unachievable. Adoption of digital technologies along with other targeted interventions represents a cost-effective way of increasing significant capacity and increasing utilisation of the existing railway network. By introducing new technologies and overhauling the outdated processes and procedures that govern the way the railway works (which have remained fundamentally unchanged for nearly 200 years), we can significantly increase the capacity on the existing network. There is an existing Government-backed timetable to modernise the command and control elements of the network as existing assets come to the end of their lives, which will take around fifty years. However, this timetable is too slow to meet the forecast increases in demand and must be accelerated. The Digital Railway Programme is designed to deliver modernisation and the capacity required to support sustained economic growth, within 25 years. Increasing the pace of modernisation will bring enormous benefits to the economy, passengers and businesses in Britain. However the accelerated programme is currently unfunded. We will publish the outline business case for this work later this year and seek a clear commitment in the Government s 2016 Autumn Statement to further development funding for the Digital Railway Programme. Similarly, a commitment to a rolling programme of national digital modernisation of the railway in the Department for Transport s High Level Output Statement in 2017 will give confidence to our supply chain and provide the momentum needed to enable Britain s railway to deliver for passengers, freight operators and the economy. Background: A network at capacity 1. Britain has the fastest growing railway in Europe. Following decades of decline, passenger numbers have more than doubled in the last 20 years and there are now 1.65 billion passenger journeys every year. 2. Growth continued through the recent recession and is accelerating at a rate not seen for over 100 years. Despite the fact that 1.5 million more train services run each year than in 1997, passenger demand has outstripped that. 3. In the last year alone passenger numbers grew by 6%. Rail freight volumes have risen by 70% since 1998 and are continuing to grow. 1

2 4. The consequence of this success is that Britain s rail network faces a capacity crunch. At peak times on the busiest parts of the network there is no space to run more services and trains are so crowded that many passengers travelling into major towns and cities don t usually get a seat; a smaller but significant number can t even get on the trains they intended to catch. 5. Crowding is most severe in London. One quarter of trains in the morning peak are over capacity with 139,000 passengers reported as standing on their arrival into London in the morning peak this is equal to 22% of all passengers. 6. The National Infrastructure Commission s recent report, Transport for a World City, highlighted a lack of capacity and major overcrowding on key radial routes into central London and forecasted that, by 2031, the number of passenger kilometres travelled in crowded conditions is set to increase by 50%. 7. Britain s other major cities are similarly affected. Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, and Nottingham have all experienced an increase in the number of passengers travelling in excess of capacity during the morning peak and some of the services between Glasgow-Manchester and Manchester-Edinburgh are the most crowded in the country. 8. The rail freight industry also suffers from a shortage of capacity. Rail freight is of huge importance to the economy, transporting one in four of the shipping containers that enter the country and half of fuel used for electricity generation. The shortage of freight train paths means that services are often slow, which necessitates multiple crew changes and hampers the industry s ability to compete more effectively with road freight. 9. The sheer amount of traffic on the rail network also significantly affects the resilience of the timetable. This congestion means that even a minor operational incident that is resolved quickly can have a significant knock-on effect, where disruption spreads quickly and is still felt many hours later, sometimes hundreds of miles from the original incident. 10. Even though Network Rail has successfully reduced the number of disruptive incidents caused by the failure of infrastructure to its lowest ever level, the congestion on the network means that the impact of each incident the secondary or knock-on delay - continues to increase. 70% of delay on the network is secondary delay. 11. Against this backdrop, demand forecasts predict that by 2030 there will be an additional one billion journeys a year on the network. Without additional investment to accommodate increasing demand the capacity shortage, overcrowding and performance impact will become chronic. 12. Network Rail is in the middle of delivering the biggest programme of rail modernisation since the Victorian era. Through our Rail Upgrade Programme, we are investing 38bn between to deliver improvements that will bring significant benefits to passengers and freight throughout the country. This work is vital but, based on current forecasts this alone will be insufficient to keep pace with rising demand. 13. Additional capacity has to be unlocked from the existing network if Britain is to have the rail network it needs: to support economic growth, connect a rapidly growing population, and provide the service that passengers deserve. The challenge for the Government, Network Rail and the rail industry is to provide the additional capacity needed as efficiently and cost-effectively as possible. The constraints of today s railway 14. The existing network is unable to provide sufficient additional capacity to meet forecast demand. It is constrained both by the limits of the existing physical infrastructure and the processes and principles which 2

3 guide how we operate it, many of which fundamentally haven t changed since the railways were built nearly 200 years ago. 15. In terms of infrastructure, the existing signalling system is the single greatest barrier to unlocking more capacity. To maintain safe separation between trains, signalling systems use the concept of blocks. Blocks vary in length, but the average distance in high capacity urban areas is between one and one and a half miles, from end to end. Trains are only allowed to enter a block once the previous train has vacated it. For the traditional signalling system, using lineside signals, the block length is determined by the calculated braking distance for trains on that route. Signal distances are determined by the poorest performing train that uses the route, meaning that the most efficient braking trains have their capabilities constrained by the least efficient. 16. With digital systems the relationship between the braking distance and block length is removed allowing block lengths to be reduced. This allows the separation between trains to be safely reduced which results in a more efficient use of the infrastructure. This expands railway capacity, allowing more trains to run on the network. 17. Traditional signalling systems have many failure modes and they account for a substantial proportion of delays caused by the infrastructure. A third of primary delays are caused by failure of the physical signalling equipment. The running costs are also high, as signalling asset numbers run to many tens of thousands. It costs Network Rail in excess of one billion pounds each year to operate, maintain and renew the conventional signalling system. 18. There are a huge number of similarly outdated operating processes which make it harder to maximise the capacity available on the network. These include grandfather rights for long-standing rail services and overly prescriptive timetabling rules. These not only complicate and constrain the process of timetable design but the network change process used to make changes requires unanimous agreement by industry participants, the result of which is a c.2-3 year delay between timetable design and its use. This makes it hard for the railway to be agile to changes in demand. 19. The current necessity to run fewer, longer trains is another good example of the way that operating procedures fail to maximise the potential capacity from the space on the network. Digital signalling will help train operators match demand with the most efficient service configuration. 20. The amount of traffic on the network passenger and freight is also now making it harder to deliver conventional capacity improvements. Every time we need to shut the railway to deliver work as part of the Railway Upgrade Programme it is becoming more disruptive and more costly. It is also too slow. The pace of demand growth and the commensurate scale of the capacity increase required means that we cannot build our way out of the capacity shortage with conventional railway enhancements. We need to be more innovative. What is the Digital Railway? 21. Together with the wider rail industry Network Rail established the Digital Railway Programme as a response to the need to meet the rising demand for rail travel in the most cost-effective way: by modernising and making the best use of the existing network. Its task is to look at how new technology can enable the railway to operate in a very different way to deliver more trains, better connectivity and improved reliability. 22. Technology is a hugely important part of the Digital Railway Programme but it is not the whole story. Unlocking significant new capacity from the existing network requires three things: New digital technologies (see box below); Continued targeted physical infrastructure upgrades e.g. at stations, and key junctions - building flyovers or dive-unders, rather than lines which cross each other on the flat; Changes to conventional operating processes which govern the way the railway is run e.g. platform dispatch procedures, recovery margins, timetable resolution and enabling more agile changes to timetabling. 3

4 A guide to the main technologies involved in the digital railway European Train Control System (ETCS) replaces traditional colour light signalling that keeps trains apart with a digital solution that allows trains to run closer together safely, and to travel at their optimal speeds and braking distances. There are different versions of ETCS, which reflect the developing technology. Broadly, ETCS Level 2 refers to current technology, which uses track-side equipment to locate trains, whilst ETCS Level 3 is used to describe next generation technology, which relies on trains to establish and report their own positions via radio-based data connections. ETCS Level 3 is currently under development in collaboration with European infrastructure partners. ETCS Level 3 has the potential to deliver a range of extra benefits that include: additional and affordable capacity benefits as trains can run closer together with very little line-side equipment; increased reliability by removing any need for line-side signalling infrastructure; a lower cost base as there are relatively few physical assets to install, maintain and renew; and improved safety. Traffic Management (TM) controls the flow of trains across the network in the most efficient way, maximising the throughput and adapting as network conditions change. It significantly helps to manage disruption and reduce secondary or knock-on delay. For example, if one train is delayed, traffic management can allow others to speed up to take its slot. Put simply, ETCS increases the capacity on the network to run more trains, and Traffic Management allows this additional capacity to be used in the most efficient way. Driver advisory systems provide decision-support to drivers in the cab so that they have the information they need at the right time to keep trains moving, delivering a more even flow of traffic that boosts performance and capacity. This can be further enhanced through Automatic Train Operation (ATO), which combines the advisory data with the signalling data to directly control the train s traction and braking systems. ATO delivers a greater level of predictability and reliability in train movement, and eliminates human error from train speed and braking decisions. Train drivers retain responsibility for managing the passenger service and are best placed to respond to external interventions such as trespassers on the track. Global System for Mobile Communications Railway (GSM-R) is the dedicated mobile network for the railway and provides secure digital communication between train drivers and signallers. The phrase European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) is used to describe the deployment of ETCS and Traffic Management with GSM-R. It is an agreed standard which is designed to standardise the way railways operate across Europe. 23. Although individually these technologies can provide benefits, it is when they are used together that they deliver tangible improvements in capacity, connectivity and reliability. Network Rail intends to deploy them across the network controlled from 11 Rail Operating Centres (ROCs). This concept is analogous to the introduction of autopilot and digital air traffic control in aviation and with Smart Motorways. Other railways e.g. Holland, Germany and Switzerland are also proposing similar application of this technology, and it is widely used in Japan and on highspeed railways. 4

5 The benefits of Digital Railway 24. By modernising our signalling and traffic management processes, we can deliver more trains, better connections and greater reliability. More trains Digital technology can allow trains to run faster and closer together than they do currently. London Underground has already introduced very similar new technologies into their systems. By upgrading signalling and traffic management, the number of trains on the Victoria Line has increased from 28 to 34 trains an hour, and will rise to 36 by Spring Capacity is now being increased by more than 30 per cent on other lines. Similar benefits could be brought to the national rail network, although the mixed traffic nature of parts of the mainline timetable will impose a constraint in certain areas. Our modelling on the Wessex route indicates that it is possible to achieve significant capacity gains at lower cost than conventional solutions by the application of digital technology. Better connections Digital signalling unlocks the space needed to enable greater flexibility about where, when and how fast trains run. Currently timetables are planned, mostly manually, between two and four years in advance, and are then largely fixed. Digital Traffic Management transforms this, harnessing modern analytics to create more effective conflict-free timetables and options for new trains that can be adjusted as demand changes from day-to-day, week-to-week and season-to-season. Greater reliability Conventional signalling and train control systems reduce the potential capacity and flexibility of the network, which struggles to recover quickly when things go wrong. Even a single disruption can cause a chain-reaction of delay across the network. Digital Traffic Management increases the flexibility in the timetable, allowing services to recover more quickly. 25. As well as smoothing the flow of trains, digital Traffic Management systems provide comprehensive real-time train running data which can provide passengers and freight operators with far more accurate information about their services, both to displays in stations and to mobile device applications. This is especially helpful during times of major disruption, when passengers need revised service information to help them make decisions about their onward journeys and for freight operators to manage their customers expectations. The timetable for delivering a Digital Railway 26. The existing timetable for modernising the network is based on replacing conventional signalling systems as they reach their end of life. This would mean that digital modernisation would not be complete until around We believe that Britain cannot wait that long. 27. Modernising the railway over a period of several decades would be operationally challenging to manage safely, and very expensive to maintain. It would involve operating two systems in parallel for many years and delay the delivery of the benefits for the economy, passengers and the freight industry. 28. Network Rail is proposing to accelerate modernisation by deploying new, readily available, digital technology nationwide within 25 years. This will be delivered alongside operational changes and the upgrade of the wireless and fixed communications networks used on the railway. 29. We are also developing an option to achieve a further accelerated modernisation timetable based on next generation technology that is still in development (ETCS Level 3 see above). This new technology could potentially enable modernisation to be achieved within years. Network Rail has a development programme associated with ETCS Level 3, ATO and automated signalling design. However, it is not funded beyond

6 30. The Digital Railway programme is in the development phase, and the initial plan to deliver the digital railway within 25 years is currently being finalised. This will provide the basis of a rolling programme designed to maximise the benefits nationwide. A roll-out centred on the 11 Rail Operating Centres and the geographic areas they cover, provides the best opportunity to ensure that the benefits are delivered efficiently across the network. We are currently working with stakeholders to develop the sequence of the roll-out and this will be presented to Government as part of the options and choices for Control Period The sequencing that we are currently proposing involves rolling out digital technology to a number of routes during CP6 ( ) and these include starting the East Coast Main Line (south and north), and Manchester and Cross Pennines. On-going consultation with the rail industry will help refine and finalise the timetable for rollout. 32. The transition to a digital railway will involve a significant programme of change and culture throughout the whole industry. Many challenges have already been identified with the implementation of the Cambrian Line ETCS Level 2 deployment in 2011 and the ongoing introduction of Traffic Management. A national roll-out of new technology will represent a major challenge requiring coordination and integration activities at national and route level. 33. Delivery of an accelerated roll-out is currently unfunded. If we are to successfully deliver a digital railway within 25 years or less, we will need firm commitment from Government and the wider rail industry. 6

7 Network Rail s Response to the Committee s Areas of Interest The Efficiency of Network Rail s planned roll-out of ERTMS and ETCS across the network 34. The current plan to modernise the network by deploying ERTMS by 2060, whilst efficient from an assetreplacement viewpoint, is neither efficient from an overall benefits perspective, nor an operational viewpoint. At current capacity the demand for rail will significantly exceed supply for several decades. The plan being developed with the rail industry to achieve modernisation within 25 years will deliver significant benefits to the national economy and the rail network. 35. Network Rail is currently trialling a number of pilot schemes to test the technology. Individual digital technologies are being deployed in Control Period 5, for example on the Thameslink core through central London and at the Romford Rail Operating Centre. However these offer only small-scale opportunities to assess the impact on performance and operational processes in high-demand situations. The limited package of new technology deployed on the lower-demand Cambrian lines has been operationally proven to deliver a more reliable railway. 36. It is highly desirable that a complete pilot deployment of the integrated Digital Railway proposal is successfully completed in advance of full deployment, to assess the scale of the business change required to maximise the benefits that the technology offers. For this reason we are proposing a pilot scheme in Greater Anglia (on the Norwich/Yarmouth/Lowestoft line) to replace a planned conventional signalling upgrade. 37. Greater Anglia has been selected because it represents a low risk opportunity with limited impact on areas of critical performance and is representative of large parts of the rail network. Although a budget has been secured for the infrastructure elements of introducing a Digital Railway at Norwich/Yarmouth/Lowestoft, this currently excludes the cost of required changes to the rolling stock using the line. Currently the fitment of these trains remains a challenge from a delivery perspective and ways of addressing these challenges are being assessed. 38. The next East Anglia franchise includes the necessary modifications and upgrades needed to rolling stock and training for ETCS by 2022 later than our proposed earlier roll-out at Norwich/Yarmouth/Lowestoft. It will therefore be necessary to adjust the timings of fitting out of a small number of the trains with the new technology in order to align with the roll-out of new infrastructure technologies. This is subject to agreement being reached with the successful bidder and Network Rail is currently in discussion with DfT. How the state of current GSM-Railway technology (a standard for wireless technology used for railway communication and applications) impacts rail infrastructure 39. GSM-R (Global System for Mobile Communication Railway) is the wireless communications system for railway communication and applications which has been operational on the rail network since There were two main factors that led to the introduction of the GSM-R system: the requirement to comply with the European common standard for digital and voice communications in railway applications; and to heed the recommendations from major incident enquiries. 40. The GSM-R System ensures direct radio driver-signaller communications at all times. This includes areas such as tunnels and deep cuttings, where radio communications have not previously been possible, thereby: a. Improving safety for drivers, and passengers b. Ensuring faster and more effective responses to potential hazards with applications such as Railway Emergency Call c. Eliminating the need for drivers to exit the train in the event of a problem 41. By replacing the patchwork of increasingly inefficient and expensive legacy systems, the GSM-R system: a. Reduces on-going maintenance costs 7

8 b. Improves reliability c. Delivers the foundation for a digitally-enabled railway 42. It is configured across the rail network for voice communications and is the agreed digital standard for ETCS. However, to support ETCS efficiently in future it will require a number of modifications, including upgrades in the following three areas: Increased signal strength The GSM-R system is optimised for voice and therefore in certain areas an increase in signal levels will be required, which typically requires additional in-fill masts. More capacity Like all mobile systems, GSM-R is a cellular system, and the number of simultaneous calls is currently limited by the underlying technology. GSM-R currently uses circuit switched technology which requires each connection to be uniquely allocated to that call. In busy parts of the network, there will not be enough capacity to have a sufficient number of simultaneous calls. To overcome this limitation, packet switched technology known as GPRS is required. GSM-R will require upgrading to 3G packet-switched GPRS to facilitate this change and allow a greater volume of calls in key areas. This will form the basis of Network Rail s future Industry Plan and funding submission for CP6 to ensure future digital capability can be supported to meet increased capacity demands. Improved reliability Upgrades to the GSM-R Base Stations are needed to improve reliability on the network, together with improvements to the fixed telephone network 43. GSM-R suffers from interference from Public Mobile Operators (MNOs) in adjacent frequency bands. This is not just a problem in Britain and is being experienced in other European countries too. Local solutions are being developed and additional filters on GSM-R cab mobiles are being considered. We also manage this issue in the short-term through co-operation with the MNOs, although this is not sustainable in the long-term for the MNOs as they themselves have contractual coverage commitments imposed under spectrum licences. 44. GSM-R is a 2G (2nd Generation) system and it is likely that it will become obsolete by the mid-2020s. Work is ongoing with the European Rail Agency to develop a replacement system. How realistic are the timings proposed in Network Rail's "Digital Railway" programme and how these will be achieved 45. The Digital Railway programme is still in the development phase. We are currently developing the Outline Business Case covering the different options for rolling out a Digital Railway. This will be published in the Autumn of 2016 and presented to Government as part of the wider options and choices for developing the railway in CP6 and beyond. 46. Our ability to take forward the Digital Railway Programme on an accelerated schedule is dependent on political support and investment from Government now and through CP6 and beyond, with appropriate funding prior to that to allow the programme to be fully developed. 47. The 25 year programme has been assessed at a high level using considered assumptions and a baseline sequence of the plan will be finalised in Spring This will allow the more detailed planning required for the first years of the plan to proceed, subject to funding. The supply chain and wider industry will continue to be engaged in the assessment of deliverability. 8

9 48. The development programme for the next generation of technology (ETCS Level 3) is also at an early stage and is dependent on continued funding from Government. Network Rail has agreements in place with a number of European infrastructure managers to co-develop the technology. A five year development aspiration is realistic given the current levels of maturity of this type of technology, and the safety and compliance approvals needed at national and European level. How changes to Network Rail's Enhancement Delivery Plan following the Hendy Review will impact the rollout of ETCS/ERTMS systems. 49. The reduction in cab fitment funding in CP5 will not impact the rescheduled CP5 committed projects. However the opportunity to accelerate the benefits from the Digital railway roll-out in CP6 will be impacted without further funding. How the transfer of signalling responsibilities to Rail Operating Centres (ROCs) is proceeding, and what implications this transfer has for the overall rollout of new signalling and traffic management technology. 50. The planned transfer of our signalling, control and electrical control staff to Rail Operating Centres was not originally associated with the introduction of new technology. 51. Progress has been slower than planned due in the main to funding limitations but also because conventional signalling schemes have proved more expensive to migrate than expected. This has required some schemes to be deferred. 52. Of the six new build ROCs two still have no signalling workstations in place and the other four have only a very small number, less than The original programme was based on using conventional VDU based signalling. The introduction of Traffic Management and ETCS in-cab signalling simplifies command and control activities, automating many of the tasks currently carried out by signallers and controllers. Once we have deployed these technologies in an integrated manner the adoption and application should become easier and faster with each deployment. What legislative and other action the Government could take to support the rate of change in signalling and traffic management technology. 54. Network Rail does not believe legislation is required to modernise the network with digital technology. However, a policy statement, that provides an unambiguous commitment to an accelerated timetable to complete within 25 years - would provide clear direction for the rail industry and give the supply chain the confidence it needs. It is important that the change from an asset expiry policy to an optimised benefits policy for replacing signalling is fully understood. 55. Changes need to be made to franchising requirements and procurement to align with an accelerated roll-out schedule. At the moment ERTMS fitment to fleet is evaluated on a case-by-case basis, whereas it should be the default position. 9

10 56. The development of ETCS Level 3 is currently unfunded and will require million to ensure the advanced technology option is ready for deployment by the end of CP6 ( ). Investment in the next generation signalling will deliver greater capacity and performance benefits across the network, more quickly. 57. The national roll-out schedule will be finalised by mid An early commitment by Government to fund the first deployments in CP6 schemes will be required to provide momentum to the programme of modernisation. Whether timetable planning is suitably optimised to meet demand for both passenger and freight rail, and how traffic management technology can be used to improve this. 58. Traffic management and digital signalling provide the opportunity to significantly review the current timetabling processes to better utilise capacity and be more responsive to the short term needs of the industry. The introduction of the Digital Railway is a major programme and will require the whole industry to work together to determine the most effective way forward in order to best match supply to demand. The tools for timetable planning are capable of supporting greater levels of traffic density on today s network, but the processes for designing, agreeing and publishing the timetable, and the processes for making late-notice changes or service additions, are far from optimal. Digital Railway may act as a catalyst for removing some of the complex constraints and controls put in place at privatisation. For more information please visit 10