QUARTERLY GDP of INDONESIA

Transcription

1 QUARTERLY GDP of INDONESIA I. INTRODUCTION Since first publication of the national accounts in 1966, Statistics Indonesia has been producing these accounts in both current prices of the year and constant prices of some fixed reference year. This has been the standard international practice advocated by the United Nations since 1953 and formalized with the 1968 System of national Accounts (SNA). To economists, the GDP at constant prices has been the single tool used to approximate real GDP, which measures GDP after deducting the impact of prices changes. Dissatisfaction with the use of fixed weights due to the changing structure of economies led to a different recommended approach as part of the updated SNA in This paper shows the current methodologies used by Statistics Indonesia in compiling the Indonesia s quarterly national accounts. The methodologies in national accounting evolve over time: as new data resources become available or old ones are eliminated, the computation methodology for a particular variable may change. What is documented here is the core methodologies which form the basis for the most current estimations. These methodologies have involved evaluating many of data resources, deciding which ones are most appropriate to use and forcing consistency when sources appear inconsistent. The 1993 SNA recommended using chained indices for measuring real GDP (and its components) instead of its traditional measurement at constant prices. As such, this methodology would use changing weights every year instead of the fixed weights of the year chosen for reference. Some industrialized countries have adopted the new methodology, although at different times since 1993 and to varying degrees. BPS - Indonesia has decided to adopt this new metodology gradually and to carefully study its implication in the next few years. II. COMPILATION OF PRODUCTION ACCOUNTS The nine-sector final published GDP tabulations are the result of estimations of fifty-eight sub-sectors which, in turn, are the outcome of estimations of about two hundred commodities and commodity groups. The majority involve the use of primary data collected quarterly or monthly by Statistics Indonesia, and some 1

2 collected by Department of Agriculture, the Department of Mining & Energy and PLN. Some involve estimations based on less frequently collected primary data and some are based on administrative data. Every figure used at the sub-sectoral level (and by extension, at the sectoral level) is subjected to a plausibility check by evaluating: - its implicit cumulative growth rate for the year - its growth rate relative to the previous quarter, - its gowth rate relative to the same quarter of the previous year, - its seasonally adjusted value (this applies only at the sectoral level and for total GDP) Plausibility checks are conducted for estimates at both constant and current prices. They are done in addition to various consistency checks, both of the internal structure of these accounts and with other reliable data sources. The general approach guiding compilation of these accounts is to rely on the most complete data available at the time of release. When only partial data are available, we rely on pure estimations. When estimations are necessary, the general guiding approach is to rely on simple methods as much as possible (e.g. averages, ratios, growth rates etc.); if results are implausible then more sophisticated econometric techniques (e.g. moving averages, regressions, ARIMA etc.) may be used. Table 1 and 2 summarize the basic methodologies used for compiling GDP by sector and sub-sector for constant and then for current price estimates. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Table 1. Summary of Sources & Methods of GDP by Sectors at Constant Prices Sector Sub-Sector Data Sources Basic Methodology 1. Farm Food BPS Agriculture Crops Directorate 2. Non-Food Crops Dir.Gen. Estate Crops, Dept. of Agriculture & BPS monthly producer survey. Quantities for 9 commodities (paddy, corn, cassava, yam, green beans, peanuts, soy beans, vegetables, afruits) obtained by multiplying average yield by area harvested, 1993 prices applied. Monthly quantities for 9 primary commodities (cocoa, cloves, rubber, cane sugar/tebu, coconut, palm oil, coffee, tibacco, tea) obtained from survey, and trend applied to remaining 13 2

3 Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water 3.Livestock 4. Forestry 5. Fishery 1. Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas 2. Non-oil Gas & Mining 3. Quarrying 1. Petroleum Refining 2. LNG 3. Nine 2 digit ISIC 1. Electricity 2. City Gas 3. Water Supply Dir.General Livestock, Dept. of Agriculture Dept. of Forestry Dir.Gen.Fishery, Dept. of Agr. BPS, Industry Directorate DG Oil & Gas, DG Oil & Gas, BPS Industry Directorate PLN (Electricity Institution) PGN (Gas Institution) BPS survey of water supply establishments commodities, 1993 prices applied. Quantities obtained for 9 commodities (cows, buffalos, goats, pigs, horses, chikens,ducks,egge, milk), 1993 prices applied. Quantities obtained for 7 commodities (teak, kayu rimba, kayu rakyat, firewood. charcoal /arang, bamboo, rattan), 1993 prices applied. Quantities obtained for 3 commodities (fresh water fish, salt water fish, shrimp), 1993 prices applied Quantities for 3 commodities (crude petroleum, condensate, natural gas) obtained, 1993 prices applied. Quantities for 21 commodities (coal, copper, bauxite, tin, ferro nickel, bijih nickel, nickel mattes, gold, silver. Asphalt, manganese, sulfur, yodium, phosphate, iron sand, other minor commodities) obtained, 1993 prices applied Quarterly construction index is applied. Monthly quantities for 35 commodities obtained, 1993 prices applied. Monthly quantities obtained, 1993 prices applied. Medium & large establishments: quarterly manufacturing index applied by 3-digit ISIC Small & Cottage: average compound growth rate of employment in the SUSI surveys (integrated surveys) is applied by 3-digit ISIC Annual quantities are Monthly production of PLN + non-pln multiplied by 1993 price. VA to output ratio applied. Monthly quantities are multiplied by 1993 price. VA to output ratio applied. Annual quantities are multiplied by 1993 prices. Historical quarterly trend used. VA to output ratio applied. 3

4 Construction Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communica tion Financial, Ownership & Business 1. Wholesale/ Retail Trade 2. Hotels 3. Restaurants 1. Transport 2. Communication 1. Banks 2. Non-bank Financial Institutions 3. Related to finance 4. Building Rentals 5. Business 1. General Government 2. Social & Community 3.Amusement/ Recreation 4. Personal & Household Industry Directo rate, DG Forestry, DG Mining BPS I-O surveys Dept. of Tourism Dept. Transportation, relevant public enterprises PT Indosat, PT Pos, PT Telkom Series, CPI series, Dept. of Finance Dept. of Education, Dept. of Health Dept.of Tourism, association of TV/ radios, I-O table Dept. of Transportation, Susenas (National social- Quantity indices of wood, bamboo, asphalt and manufacturing building materials are obtained from various sources and applied to previous quarter. Ratio of VA margin to supply is applied to supply of other subsectors. VA regressed against number of foreign visitors and hotel/room occupancy rate Price change in prepared food component of WPI is applied to current price series. Annual quantities for 18 commodities *. Quarterly trend of a sample of commodities or of historical series applied. Quantities for 13 commodities ** sold obtained. Quarterly trend of PT Telkom applied to others. Price change in total CPI is applied to current price series. Price change in total WPI is applied to current price series. Price change in total WPI is applied to current price series. Price change in total CPI is applied to current price series Price change in total CPI is applied to current price series. series deflated by an employee compensation index for civil servants. Education: quarterly expenditure per student in 1993 prices multiplied by number of students Health: quarterly expenditure per patient in 1993 prices multiplied by number of patients Quarterly expenditure per unit for 3 activities (movie theatre operation, TV and radio broadcasting, movie production) in 1993 prices multiplied by number of units. Vehicle repair: quarterly expenditure per vehicle in 1993 prices multiplied by number of vehicles. 4

5 economic survey), I-O table Other repair: quarterly expenditure per worker in 1993 prices multiplied by number of workers. Servants: quarterly expenditure per household in 1993 prices multiplied by number of households. *) road transportation: number of passangers of cars, buses, and trucks; ocean transportation: number of passengers, volume of freight; river, lake and ferry transportation: number oif pasengers,volume of freight, number of vehicles carried by ferry: air transportation:passengers and freight (domestic and international flights); services supporting transportation: volume of inter-island cargo loaded/ unloaded at 4 main sea-ports, volume of international cargo loaded / unloaded at 4 main sea-ports, volume of domestic aircraft cargo loaded /unloaded at 5 main airports, volume of international aircraft loaded/unloaded at 4 main airports. **) Indosat: telephone calls (number of minutes), telex (number of minutes), telegram (number of words), direct telegraph transmission lines ( meter usage measured in sirkit), direct data transmission lines ( meter usage measured in sirkit); PT Pos indonesia: number of letters, number of packages, money trasfers (number of forms filled), checking/saving accounts cek & giro (number of transactions); PT Telkom: domestic telephone calls (meter usage), manual long-distance calls (minutes), telex (meter usage), telegram (words). Note: VA to output ratio applied. The total for the above activities (for each sub-sector) are summed up and a further markup of some percentage is applied to arrive at the total value added for each sub-sector. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishery Table 2. Summary of Sources & Methods of GDP by Sectors at Current Prices Sector Sub-Sector Data Sources Basic Methodology 1. Farm Food Crops Mining & Quarrying 2. Non-Food crops 3. Livestock 4. Forestry 5. Fishery 1. Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas 2. Non-oil Gas & Mining 3. Quarrying series. series Price changes in relevant component of WPI are applied to constant price series Export unit value changes (in rupiah) are applied to constant price series Current export prices (converted to rupiah) are applied to constant price series Price changes in quarrying component of WPI are applied to 5

6 Mining & Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Construction Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport & Communica tion 4. Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas 5. Non-oil Gas & Mining 6. Quarrying 1. Petroleum Refining 2. LNG 3. Nine 2 digit ISIC 1. Electricity 2. City Gas 3. Water Supply 1. Wholesale/ Retail Trade 2. Hotels 3. Restaurants 1. Transport 2. Communication series. series DG Oil & Gas, DG Oil & Gas, BPS I-O surveys Susenas PT. Indosat, PT Pos, PT Telkom constant price series. Export unit value changes (in rupiah) are applied to constant price series Current export prices (converted to rupiah) are applied to constant price series Price changes in quarrying component of WPI are applied to constant price series. Monthly quantities for 35 commodities obtained. Current proces applied. Monthly quantities obtained. Current export prices converted to rupiah applied. Price changes in relevant component of WPI are applied to constant price series. Prices changes in relevant component of CPI are applied to constant price series. Prices changes in relevant component of WPI are applied to constant price series. Ratio of VA margin to supply is applied to supply of other subsectors Prices changes in relevant component of CPI are applied to constant price series Expenditure per household multiplied by number of households, divide equally by quarter. Price changes in relevant component of CPI are applied to constant price series Value of sales for 13 commodities obtained. Quarterly trend of PT Telkom applied to others. 6

7 Financial, Ownership & Business 1. Banks 2. Non-bank Financial Institutions 3. Related to Finance 4. Building Rentals 5. Business Ser Vices 1. General Government 2. Social & Community 3. Amusement/ Recreation 4. Personal & Household Bank Indonesia Dept.of Finance, BPS special survey Jakarta/Surabaya StockExchanges, Bank Indonesia Susenas, Population estimates, real estate association INKINDO, BPS special survey Dept. of Finance, BPS special survey. Dept. of Education, Dept. of Health Dept.of Tourism, Association of TV/radios, I-O table Dept. of Transportation, Susenas, I-O table Value added estimates obtained directly from Bank Indonesia. Operating revenue obtained for 5 activities, converted to quarterly using historicaltrend. VA / Output ratio applied. Operating revenue obtained for 3 activities, converted to quarterly using historicaltrend. VA / Output ratio applied. Dwelling: per capita consumption on rentals multiplied by population Non-Dwelling: monthly output for major cities VA per consultants for 5 activities multiplied by number of consultants Quarterly personnel expenditure + 5% estimated consumption of fixed capital Education: quarterly expenditure per student multiplied by number of students Health: quarterly expenditure per patient multiplied by number of patients. Quarterly expenditure per unit for 3 activities multiplied by number of units Vehicle repair: quarterly expenditure per vehicle multiplied by number of vhicles. Other repair: quarterly expenditure per worker multiplied by number of workers. Servants: quarterly expenditure per household multiplied by number of households. III. COMPILATION OF EXPENDITURE ACCOUNTS The expenditure accounts take the GDP computed from the production accounts as the benchmark and then attemp to reconcile estimations of various components with that benchmark. Tables 3 and 4 summarize the basis methodologies used for compiling various sectors for constant and current price estimates 7

8 respectively, and the sections that follow describe sectoral methodologies in more detail. Table 3. Summary of Sources & Methods of Expenditure Accounts at Constant Prices Sector Data Sources Basic Methodology Private Consumption Expenditure Susenas, Production Accounts, CPI Use consumption elasticity with respect to GDP, apply to quarterly GDP. Incorporate adjustment in current price estimate by deflating by Government Consumption Expenditure Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation Change in Stocks Exports of Goods & Imports of Goods & series, quantity index of civil service employees, WPI Prod. Accounts, imports, Industry Survey. series, WPI series, $ value index series, $ value index relevant component of CPI. Personnel Expenditure & Depreciation: use growth in quantity index. Material Expenditure: apply WPI to current price series. Construction: obtained from quarterly production accounts. Machinery: monthly imports multiplied by Rupiah at 1993 prices. Domestic production multiplied by growth in the production index. Transportation: monthly imports multiplied by Rupiah at 1993 prices. Domestic production multiplied by growth in the production index. Other: apply markup. Apply WPI to current price series. Apply price changes in index to current price series. Apply price changes in index to current price series. Table 4. Summary of Sources & Methods of Expenditure Accounts at Current Prices Sector Data Sources Basic Methodology Private Consumption Expenditure Apply relevant CPI component to constant price series. Apply iterative adjustments to reconcile supply and demand. 8

9 Government Consumption Expenditure Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation Budgets of central, level I, level II & village government. Relevant budget allocations + depreciation Construction: obtained from quarterly production accounts. Machinery: monthly imports converted to Rupiah. Domestic production in constant prices inflated by relevant WPI component. Transportation: monthly imports converted to Rupiah. Domestic production in constant prices inflated by relevant WPI component. Other: apply markup. Change in Stoctks I-O Table Start with same share in supply from I-O table. Apply iterative adjustment to reconcile supply and demand. Export of Goods & Import of Goods & Trade & Directorate Trade & Directorate Goods: get export value for 7 commodity groups; services: use trend in goods Goods: get import value for 7 commodity groups; services: use trend in goods IV. RECOMMENDATION AND PLAN OF ACTIVITIES The 1993 SNA recommended using chained indices for measuring real GDP (and its components) instead of its traditional measurement at constant prices. As such, this methodology would use changing weights every year instead of the fixed weights of the year chosen for reference. The best way to start is by defining terms clearly in order to avoid any semantic confusion. In understanding the concept of 1993 SNA, the short training and discussion for the technical staffs have to be done continuously. In addition, translating and summarizing the concepts, specially to emphasize the different of 1968 and 1993 SNA has been circulated to the staffs of the National Account Directorate. For the next steps, the understanding of the concept will be spread out to the regional staffs and to the other agencies outside of the BPS-Statistics Indonesia. 9

10 The implementation of the 1993 SNA is the underway and it requires simultaneous activities. The immediate plan is to estimate the GDP by industrial origin as well as by expenditure categories for year 2000 and 2001 to uses the concept The most challenging again will be encounter that when changing the base year from laspeyres to the linking base will have to be clarified with the Ministry of Economic Affair and the Legislative Body and other users. Plan of Activities: BPS Statistics Indonesia has done several technical programs at national and regional level. These programs consists of: a. Converting the classification of ISIC version 3 with the Indonesia classification named Klasifilasi Lapangan Usaha Indonesia (KLUI) that campatible with the classification used in the new system; b. Studying on the possibility in adopting and adjusting the system that specially fit with the Indonesia economy condition. These activities produce a basic framework and methods for the System of National Accounts for Indonesia (SNAI). The program was a joint collaboration between BPS and the Netherlands CBS. c. Launching several policies at the level of regional (provincial and municipal) offices to start observing the possibility of adopting the new system, identifying sources of data and related information to support the system; d. Continuing discussion, within staffs of National Accounts, on the concepts and techniques to apply the new system; e. Preparing to change the base year of the GDP for national level from 1993 to The series of GDP with the new base year will be officially released in During the implementation programs of the 1993 SNA, BPS Indonesia will face some following problems that can be identified, such as: - It takes time to introduce and socialize the new system for the users; - It takes learning programs in the form of training staffs to absorb a wide and various methods and concepts of the system, and needs much more budget support to realize all avtivities; 10

11 - To keep consistency among the number of accounts in the new system needs some technical adjustments compared with the old system; - It takes time to improve current existing network that must be reformed and adapted to the new system. Reformation includes all sectoral survey system and compilation procedures of basic data. - The consistency between GDP and GRDP still needs to be concerned. It is solved, such as: -- By coordinating the basic data of provinces and national level; -- Using the data (secondary and primary data) from subject matter effectively and consistently; -- The time lag of data available used by National Account Directorate should be decreased; -- Every time the basic data from subject matter is changed (or is already available), the GDP / GRDP and the value added of each sector/sub-sector should be revised, so the value added will be more and more consistent. 11