FTTP Feasibility Study

Transcription

1 FTTP Feasibility Study for The City of Fort Collins Task 5 Report: Assessment of Risks & Opportunities August 2016 Uptown Services, LLC Dave Stockton & Neil Shaw, Principals

2 Uptown sees the following primary risk areas for the municipal FTTP system being considered : 1. Comcast DOCSIS3.1 Upgrade 2. Market and Operating Risks Technology costs Market substitution (Voice and video) Economic trends (premise growth, interest rates) Construction cost overruns The risks associated with DOCSIS3.1 were evaluated using market research and pro forma revisions. Market and operational risks were evaluated using sensitivity analysis 2

3 DOCSIS3.1

4 Total sample size of 100 respondents out of original 400 Respondents screened to ensure Decision-maker for telecommunications and entertainment services in the home and live within city limits Currently using Internet in the household Respondents with immediate family members employed by any of the following were excluded: The City of Fort Collins CenturyLink Comcast Demographics were recorded (age, income, rent/own) but results not weighted for age Three post-docsis3.1 scenarios tested: Comcast sole 1G provider at $70 MRC Comcast and City 1G both at $70 MRC City 1G at $50 MRC and Comcast 1G at $70 MRC 4

5 Participants were asked if they would or would not switch to a different Internet service if both of the following services were provided in the future. The new service options would be the following two Internet services, both offering 1 Gbps speed Q4-5: If these services were available to your home, and offer the same speed, which of the following statements best describes your likelihood to switch? Comcast $70/City $50 Both $70 79% Demand for 1G is highly price elastic City is preferred provider by a factor of 3x 43% 44% 1% 10% 18% 2% 3% I Would Switch to Comcast I Would Switch to Ft Collins I Would Retain My Current Service Don't Know 5

6 Original Survey Question 8: In stating that you would switch to the City s 1G Internet service, what is the primary reason you would switch? 54% 37% 9% Prefer City as Provider Prefer the Lower Price Other Reason 6

7 The majority of respondents, when given the choice, would prefer to receive high speed Internet from the City Q28: Among the following list of potential providers, who would you prefer to receive high-speed Internet service from? Ft Collins (n=400) Ft Collins Followup (n=100) 55% 45% 23% 11% 13% 15% 17% 11% 4% 4% 3% CenturyLink Comcast The City FRII A new provider Don't Know 7

8 What if Comcast implements DOCSIS3.1 and is the sole provider of residential Gig service? Add 5 points to market share Upsell 22% of subscribers to 1Gig Current Internet Market Share (Households) 4% 2% Internet Market Share Post DOCSIS3.1 (No FTTP & Comcast $70) 62% 4% 1% 0% 33% 57% 37% Comcast Internet Dispersion (Comcast $70) 22% FTTP System Comcast - All Tiers Other CenturyLink Satellite 78% 1 Gbps All Other Tiers December 16 Study conducted by Uptown Services, LLC 8

9 2016: Pre-DOCSIS3.1 2/1/2016 (n=400) Current Incidence No Internet 3 1% Dial-Up 0 0% DSL/FiOS % Cable % Satellite 15 4% Fixed Wireless/Other 6 2% DK Type 17 4% % 2017: Post-DOCSIS3.1 6/1/2016 (n=100) Intent to Upgrade to $70 MRC Not Comcast Comcast Definitely 27.4% 8.8% Probably 32.3% 14.7% Might/Might Not 21.0% 14.7% PN/DN/DK 19.3% 61.8% All Penetration 31.0% 12.0% 22.3% No Internet 3 1% Comcast % Not Comcast % Intent to Switch to 10% Less Not Comcast Comcast All Market Share 55% 45% Definitely Switch 47.0% 33.4% 39.8% Probably 26.7% 36.1% 29.9% Might/Might Not 17.3% 17.8% 19.3% PN/DN/DK 9.0% 12.7% 11.0% Penetration 42.6% 36.0% 38.8% Intent to Switch to 10% Less After DOCSIS3.1 Not Comcast Comcast All Definitely 32.4% 29.4% Probably 18.4% 31.8% Might/Might Not 11.9% 15.7% 1G Upgraded 31.0% 12.0% PN/DN/DK 6.2% 11.2% Penetration 29.4% 31.7% 30.2% 9

10 Determined that Comcast would add 5 points in market share and lock in 22% of Internet subscribers with a $70 Gig tier (3 year contract term) This results in a drop of FTTP Internet penetration from 38.8% to 30.2% for the pro forma analysis. Baseline case revised accordingly. Once FTTP is launched, Comcast s $70 Gig service is not competitive with FTTP service at $50/month due to strong provider preference and price elasticity 10

11 Comcast DOCSIS 3.1 Longmont Model (City is RSP) Westminster Model (Ting is RSP) Huntsville Model (Google is RSP) Residential Comcast 1G / 35M Monthly: $140 MRC: $70 NRC: TBD Term: 3 Years 1G / 1G Charter Member MRC: $49.95 NRC: $0 Term: Monthly 1G / 1G MRC: $98* NRC: Up to $200 1G / 1G MRC: $70*** NRC: $0 Term: 1 Year Commercial TBD 1G / 500M MRC: $ NRC: $0 1G / 1G MRC: $148** NRC: Up to $400 Custom Quote Affordable Internet 10M MRC: $9.95 Income Qualifier: Yes Not Offered 5M / 5M MRC: $28* NRC: Up to $200 Income Qualifier: No 5M / 1M MRC: $0 NRC: $300 Income Qualifier: No * Internet service is $89/month and ONT rental is $9/month or purchase for $200. ** Internet service is $139/month and ONT rental is $9/month or purchase for $200. *** Based on Austin, TX pricing. 11

12 Business Model & Partnership Risk

13 Retail Model Risks Service revenues may be insufficient to cover debt service requirement Technology advances may require more frequent or costly system upgrades than forecast Personnel or other operating expenses may exceed forecast Wholesale Model Risks Lease rates may be too low to pay off the long term debt from the fiber build Retailer price levels may not be competitive in a DOCSIS3.1 environment with Comcast's $70 Gig service Retailer may go bankrupt or default on wholesale payments Franchise Model Risks Retailer is not bound to serve all premises and can cherry pick service areas Retailer performance may not achieve original City goals with FTTP December 16 13

14 Model Structure Westminster 7,000 Households Wholesale Dark Fiber Lease Huntsville 67,000 Households Wholesale Dark Fiber Lease Retailer Ting Google Fiber Retailer Background Wholesale Rates Deployment Status Current End User Pricing (Res) Service Coverage Virtual Wireless Network Operator since 2012 Entered FTTP in 2015 Premise Passed Fee: $6/mo. Connected Premise Fee: $17/mo. Launched Aug Gig: $89/mo. + $200 for ONT* (not guaranteed) 100% anticipated (City builds) 1 st launch in 2012 and now serving 120k subs in 5 urban markets Premise Passed Fee: Averages $5/mo. Backbone Fiber Strands: $3,500/mo. each Not Launched Contract Date: Feb Gig: $70/mo. (not guaranteed) 100% anticipated (City builds) Lincoln 104,000 Households Franchise Conduit Lease Nelnet (acquired Allo Communications) Nelnet: Education Loan Servicing Allo: Telecom provider since 2003 Retailer pays conduit lease of $3/mo. per customer Not Launched Contract Date: Nov Gig: $90/mo. (not guaranteed) Unknown Not Required (Nelnet builds) 12/23/2016 * Or $9/mo. ONT lease Study conducted by Uptown Services, LLC 14

15 $120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $40,000,000 $109M vs. $85M Wholesale =78% of Retail CAPEX $20,000,000 $0 Retail Model Wholesale Fiber Lease Models Network Construction Facility Capital Costs Other Capital Costs Back Office Systems Middleware & Conditional Access Fixed Equipment Vehicles Contract Installation FTTP ONTs Fiber Drop and Powering Converters Engineering Services 15

16 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 13% of Retail Saving $5M annually in Opex $1,000,000 $0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Retail Model Wholesale Fiber Lease Models 16

17 $30 $25 Revenue (in millions) $20 $15 35% of Retail 26% of Retail Losing $15-$17M annually in Revenue $10 $5 $0 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Retail Model Huntsville Model Westminster Model Westminster Model (DOCSIS3.1) December 16 17

18 Risk Factor Lower Penetration Due to DOCSIS3.1 Lower Penetration Due to Brand Preference Lower Penetration Due to Loss of Price Advantage Higher Opex Due to Increased Staffing Costs Higher Capex Due to Construction Cost Overrun Higher Debt Service Due to Higher Interest Rates Lower Community Support Due to < 100% Availability Degree of Risk R W F Ability to Mitigate Retail model pro forma is feasible with penetration reduced by 22% (Internet & Voice). Interdependent with Price Advantage Risk. Aside from Google Fiber, brand preference is very low for an alternative provider new to the market. Significant questions about the ability of retailers, other than Google Fiber, to compete using $90+ Gig Internet. Pro forma salary and FTE levels are robust, but many muni FTTP systems exceed staffing budgets Retail model pro forma is feasible at up to 25% construction cost overrun. Interest rate thresholds identified. Cannot eliminate all risk with uncertain bond issue #2 interest rate Franchise model would require minimum density threshold LEGEND: R = Retail Model W = Wholesale Model F = Franchise Model 18

19 Sensitivity Analysis

20 Core team identified issues: Higher network upgrade cost (Year 7 & 10) Higher construction cost Higher construction cost & higher network upgrade cost (Year 7 & 10) Higher bond interest rate Higher Internet dispersion in 1G Charter Member Higher premise growth rate Model identified issues: Identification of Top 10 most sensitive variables 20

21 $40 $20 $0 ($20) Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 Year11 Year12 Year13 Year14 Year15 Millions ($40) ($60) ($80) ($100) ($120) ($140) Baseline 25% Over Construction 2x Upgrade Cost 2nd 5.25% 25% Over Construction & 2x Upgrade Higher Premise Growth Rate 12/23/2016 Higher 1G Dispersion Study conducted by Uptown Services, LLC 21

22 $25,000,000 Scenario = Retail-2P(Post-DOCSIS3.1) $20,000,000 $15,000,000 Net Cash Year15 $10,000,000 A310 A104 A025 A073 A031 A080 A103 A028 A062 A154 A395 A058 A061 A148 A076 A397 A195 A155 A151 A185 $5,000,000 $0 ID Title A31 Blended Cost per Meter Passed - During Build A10 Residential Internet Tier2 - Year1 A02 Residential Internet Access Penetration A07 High Capacity Services Penetration of Med-Large A03 Tier2 Year 10 - Res A08 Percentage of all Businesses A10 Residential Internet Tier1 - Year1 A02 Tier1 Year 10 - Res A06 Commercial Internet Access Penetration A15 DIA ARPU Best $1,082 $ % $43.95 $1,650 Worst $885 $ % $35.96 $1,350 ID Title A39 Bond Rate - Series 1 A05 Business Package 1 A06 Lines per Business Package A14 Business Package 1 Per Line - Year1 A07 DIA Year 10 - Bus A39 Bond Rate - Series 2 A19 Bandwidth Minimum Capcity Trigger A15 Direct Fiber High Cap ARPU A15 Tier1 Bus Price A18 Residential Average Bandwidth - Year1 Best 4.1% 4.2 $ % $3,300 $ ,650 Worst 3.4% 3.4 $ % $2,700 $ ,350 22

23 Conclusions

24 Retail model is financially feasible - even in a post-docsis3.1 environment Total funding requirement is $125M Project is net cash positive in 15 years The retail model remains feasible under most sensitivities: Construction overrun of 10%: 15 year net payback Bond issue #2 50 basis point higher interest rate: 15 year net payback Construction overrun of 10% & 2x Upgrade Cost: > 15 year net payback 12/23/2016 Wholesale and/or franchise partner discussions could be pursued but will require much improved terms Franchise model: Google Fiber (funded by Alphabet) is ideal with community-wide coverage commitment, but scale will be an issue Wholesale Model: Viable financial terms in port-docsis3.1 environment are unlikely Study conducted by Uptown Services, LLC 24