Evening Roundup. Day so far US ADP EMPLOYMENT 17:45. Geofin Comtrade Ltd. Geofin Research Desk, Kochi. August 31, 2016

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1 Geofin Comtrade Ltd. Geojit BNP Paribas Building,10th Floor, 34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom Kochi Kerala Phone: Geofin Research Desk, Kochi Hareesh V Head of Commodity Research Krishnaprasad NB Vinod T. P. Anu V Pai August 31, 2016 Evening Roundup A Daily Report on Bullions, Base Metal & Energy US ADP EMPLOYMENT 17:45 MCX Member code: FMC No.: MCX/TCM/CORP/1710 NCDEX Member code : FMC No.:NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0895 NMCE Member code: CL0324 FMC No.: NMCE/TCM/CORP/0245 Disclaimer : Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives involves considerable risk you may lose part or all of the initial investment. It is not ideal for all types of investors, and you are advised to seek professional assistance before the same. Past performance may not necessarily be repeated in the future. The news and views posted on this report is based on information which is believed to be accurate. This report is provided to enable you to make your own investment decisions and should not be construed as investment advice. Geofin Comtrade does not offer any product/service with assured/guaranteed returns. The anticipatory moves mentioned in the report is purely subject to technical studies and does not take into consideration sudden currency volatility and data events. The author, directors and/or employees of Geofin Comtrade cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the content posted on this report or for decisions taken by the readers based on such information Day so far Prospects of interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve remains the prime trigger pushing markets as investors eye the monthly employment data from the US, set to release on Friday. Spot gold is seen edging up from the eight-week low on this last trading day of this month, supported by a softer dollar. However, it is poised to end this month on a negative note. Spot silver bounced up as well, though it has been caught in a range for the past few days. Among the base metals, barring copper, all other metals moved to a negative turf on LME, lead by aluminium, which declined more than 0.5 per cent. Copper inched higher, probably on short covering and softer dollar, though it is poised to post monthly losses. Crude oil, in the meantime, is seen stretching previous day s losses prior to key weekly inventory report from the US EIA. American Petroleum Institute data signaling a rise in crude oil inventories weighed on amidst persisting worries over supply glut. However the commodity is probably set to post monthly gains in the first time in three months.

2 MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES Commodity Last %Chg Open High Low Close Vol Gold Silver Crude Oil Natural Gas Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Aluminium Commodity Rate % Chg Gold ($/oz) Silver (c/oz) Nymex Crude ($/bbl) Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) LME Copper ($/T) LME Nickel ($/T) LME Lead ($/T) LME Zinc ($/T) LME Aluminium ($/T) LME Tin ($/T) GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES Daily % change Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel Copper Natural Gas Crude Oil Silver Gold Monthly % change Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel Copper Natural Gas Crude Oil Silver Gold Indices Rate % Chg Dow Jones Fut** CAC** DAX** Shanghai* MSCI Asia Pacific index Baltic Dry index Dollar index RATIOS LME STOCK Ratios Daily 5 Days Monthly 90 Days High Low High Low High Low Metal Net change Warrant change Tonnage ratio Gold Silver ratio Gold Crude ratio Lead Zinc ratio Steel Nickel ratio Lead Alumini ratio grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold 0.81 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel 1.17 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead Copper Aluminium Nickel Zinc Lead Last updated at 16:08IST

3 EVENT IN FOCUS A rather busy economic calendar for the day with US ADP employment, pending home sales and weekly crude oil inventory data set to be out. Among these, ADP nonfarm employment change may garner much attention as it could give a peek at how the Friday s nonfarm payrolls data will be. The forecast indicates an addition in August but at a slower pace than seen in the month earlier. ECONOMIC DATA Time Country Event Forecast Actual Previous Monday, August 29, :00 US Personal Income (MoM) (Jul) 0.40% 0.20% 18:00 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.40% 18:00 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 19:00 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 20:00 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Aug) -1.3 Tuesday, August 30, :00 Japan Unemployment Rate (Jul) 3.10% 3.10% 14:30 Euro Zone Consumer Confidence (Aug) :30 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) Wednesday, August 31, :20 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.80% 2.30% 17:30 India GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q1) 7.80% 7.90% 17:45 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug) 175K 179K 19:15 US Chicago PMI (Aug) :30 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.60% 0.20% 19:30 US Pending Home Sales Index (Jul) :00 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.921M 2.501M 20:00 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks M 0.122M 20:00 US Gasoline Inventories M 0.036M Thursday, September 1, :30 China Manufacturing PMI (Aug) :30 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) :00 US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) % 18:00 US Continuing Jobless Claims 2,145K 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 265K 261K 18:00 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) -0.60% -0.50% 19:15 US Manufacturing PMI (Aug) :30 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jul) 0.50% -0.60% 19:30 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) :30 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug) :00 US Natural Gas Storage 11B

4 BULLION GOLD M MCX Oct R /31560 R /31360 R /31040 Turnaround S S /30570 S /30280 Even as the consolidation support range of has been breached, it is lacking vigor to bring in considerable selling pressure. For the session ahead, though pullbacks to seems likely, higher level selling may set in as long as resistance at stays undisturbed. SILVER M MCX Nov R R /46300 R /45650 Turnaround S /43950 S /43300 S The ensuing pattern calls for a brief pullbacks to before deciding upon taking further direction. However, an unexpected fall below could seen a fall to wards 44400, below which weakness is likely to intensify.

5 BASE METALS COPPER R3 321/322.5 R /319.8 R1 315/316.8 Turnaround 312 S1 310/308.4 S /303.8 S /301 While trend stays week, a consolidation is in progress. For the day, 312 will act as a firm support, below which a slide to 310/308.5 could be anticipated. Alternatively, on the upside 315, if cleared with volumes could attract some short covering to 317 or even more. NICKEL MCX Sep R3 692/699 R R1 669/675 Turnaround 657 S1 645/634 S2 629/617 S3 611/ acts as strong support below which a glide to 645 or even more to 634 cannot be ruled out. As long as this support hold, range bound moves inside may continue. A rise over 670 may see some short covering.

6 BASE METALS LEAD M MCX Sep R R2 129/130.2 R /127.5 Turnaround 125 S S /123.4 S3 122/120.6 The ongoing formation calls for a dip towards 125.6/125 ranges before bouncing back to 126.6, above while the prevailing positive mood may strengthen. However, an unexpected fall below 125 with sturdy volumes could call for ZINC M MCX Aug R3 161 R /159 R /156.5 Turnaround S S /151.7 S /150.2 While moves seems to be largely indecisive, As long as caps upside, dips to or even more to levels seems possible. On the other side, it is mandatory to break and sustain over to continue the prevailing positive momentum.

7 BASE METALS ALUMINI R /114.9 R /112.5 R /110.2 Turnaround 107 S1 108/107 S Selling pressure may prevail possibly towards ranges from where a bounce can be anticipated. However, a direct rise over 110.2may lessen the prevailing weak bias. S ENERGY CRUDE OIL MCX/NCDEX Sep R3 3220/3248 R2 3170/3195 R Turnaround 3070 S1 3090/3070 S2 3050/3030 S3 2985/2938 Prices are gradually approaching the support range of levels, which if held downside could call for a bounce towards 3130/3160 or even more. However, a fall past 3050 will intensify weakness in the near term.

8 ENERGY NATURAL GAS MCX Sep R3 204/207 R /201 R /195 Turnaround 190 S As long as support at ranges hold downside, a bounce back to 192/195 may be seen. However, a direct fall below 189 will call for 187/185. S2 187/185 S /181 Geofin Research Team, Kochi Phone: / Mobile: research@geofin.co.in Hareesh V Head of Commodity Research hareesh_v@geofin.co.in Vinod T. P. vinod_tp@geofin.co.in Krishnaprasad NB krishnaprasad_nb@geofin.co.in Anu V Pai anu_vp@geofin.co.in Vishidha Vijayakumar vishidha_v@geofin.co.in This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Geofin Comtrade Ltd.