CAP and Build: Solving Climate Change, Seizing Economic Opportunity

Transcription

1 CAP and Build: Solving Climate Change, Seizing Economic Opportunity Jackie Roberts, Director of Sustainable Technologies Environmental Defense Fund "Capital is wayward and timid in lending itself to new undertakings, and the State ought to excite the confidence of capitalists, who are e ever cautious and sagacious, by aiding hem overcome the obstacles that lie in the way of all experiments." - Alexander Hamilton, 1791, Report on Manufactures

2 A Green Manufacturing Renaissance Climate Solutions U.S. MID-RANGE ABATEMENT CURVE 2030 Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e electronics Lighting electronics LED lighting Fuel economy packages Light trucks CFL lighting Fuel economy packages Cars Combined heat and power New shell improvements Industrial process improvements Cellulosic biofuels New shell improvements Industry Combined heat and power water heaters Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Coal mining Methane mgmt Conservation tillage Control systems Shell retrofits Nuclear newbuild Onshore wind Low penetration Manufacturing HFCs mgmt Natural gas and petroleum systems management Active forest management Reforestation Afforestation of pastureland Distributed solar PV Coal power plants CCS new builds with EOR Onshore wind Medium penetration Winter cover crops Afforestation of cropland Coal power plants CCS rebuilds with EOR HVAC equipment efficiency Onshore wind High penetration Biomass power Cofiring Solar CSP Abatement cost <$50/ton Industry CCS new builds on carbonintensive processes Coal power plants CCS new builds HVAC equipment efficiency Coal power plants CCS rebuilds Potential Gigatons/year Car hybridization Coal-to-gas shift dispatch of existing plants Working Draft - Last Modified 10/29/2008 7:15:43 AM Printed 11/17/2007 9:15:15 PM Source: McKinsey and Company, Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, December 2007.

3 There are 8,000 parts in a wind turbine -- Liz Salerno, AWEA bolts, lubricants, copper wiring, fiberglass housing, ball bearings, turbine blades, concrete & steel foundations and seals, power transmission equipment, printed circuits, motors and generators, measuring devices. For a 44 MW project, with 29 individual wind towers: 6,452 tons of steel 609 tons of composite fiberglass 12,470 tons of concrete

4 Project Sponsors: Building and Construction Trades Department (AFL-CIO) International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Industrial Union Council (AFL-CIO) United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters Environmental Defense Fund

5 A Value Chain Example Manufactures wind turbines $175 million invested in Pennsylvania 1,267 jobs (~1,000 manufacturing) 42 suppliers based in Pennsylvania Old U.S. Steel industrial site used for plant

6 Value Chain Analysis Raw Materials Component Manufacturing Product or Technology Manufacture Consumer Market Research Team: Duke University, Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, led by Gary Gereffi

7 Climate Solutions Analyzed (Round I): Auxiliary Power Units High Performance Windows LED Lighting Concentrated Solar Methane Capture (from hog farms)

8 A Green Manufacturing Renaissance Climate Solutions U.S. MID-RANGE ABATEMENT CURVE 2030 Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e electronics Lighting electronics LED lighting Fuel economy packages Light trucks CFL lighting Fuel economy packages Cars Combined heat and power New shell improvements Industrial process improvements Cellulosic biofuels New shell improvements Industry Combined heat and power water heaters Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Coal mining Methane mgmt Conservation tillage Control systems Shell retrofits Nuclear newbuild Onshore wind Low penetration Manufacturing HFCs mgmt Natural gas and petroleum systems management Active forest management Reforestation Afforestation of pastureland Distributed solar PV Coal power plants CCS new builds with EOR Onshore wind Medium penetration Winter cover crops Afforestation of cropland Coal power plants CCS rebuilds with EOR HVAC equipment efficiency Onshore wind High penetration Biomass power Cofiring Solar CSP Abatement cost <$50/ton Industry CCS new builds on carbonintensive processes Coal power plants CCS new builds HVAC equipment efficiency Coal power plants CCS rebuilds Potential Gigatons/year Car hybridization Coal-to-gas shift dispatch of existing plants Working Draft - Last Modified 10/29/2008 7:15:43 AM Printed 11/17/2007 9:15:15 PM Source: McKinsey and Company, Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?, December 2007.

9 LED Lighting

10 311 U.S. LED Supplier Firms, 2008 SOURCE: CGGC, based on LEDs Magazine, LED Suppliers Directory 2008

11 Cree, Inc. Employees, Source: CGGC, based on Cree, Inc. 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, & 2007, 2008 Annual Reports

12 Which companies will benefit? `In the green `On the cusp `Poised beneficiary Already benefitting from the new market Ready to move into the market when it takes off Entrepreneurs and investors sending signals but awaiting a market tipping point

13 `In the green in Ohio Cincinnati Cleveland Renewable Energy Businesses Energy Efficiency Businesses

14 `In the green in Pennsylvania Pittsburgh Philadelphia Renewable Energy Businesses Energy Efficiency Businesses

15 In the Green in New York Company Product NY Location Fulton High efficiency boilers Pulaski Veeco LED Lighting Dresser Rand Waste heat recovery equipment Harrison/Olean Colton Industries Waste heat recovery equipment Buffalo Schott North America Thermal solar parts: mirrors, reflectors, heat collection elements, linear receivers Elmsford ENrG Inc. High tech ceramics for renewables Buffalo Siemens Steam generators NY, NY Hilliard Corp Brake systems for wind turbines Elmira Armstrong Pumps Pumps, motors, controls for waste N. Tonawanda Globe Metallurgical Silicon manufacturing Niagara Falls Source: Manufacturing Climate Solutions, Duke Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness (Nov,, 2008) and EDF research (2009).

16 Sample Opportunities: TRUCKS APUs Approx. 8% fuel savings See map. HYBRID TRUCKS 35-45% fuel savings Azure Dynamics (Wooton, MA). RESIDENTIAL ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS Savings of 16% (heat), 23% (cool) See map INSULATION Energy savings up to 20% See map. INTELLIGENT BOILER CONTROLS 10-20% savings in natural gas e.g., Carlin Combustion (Western Mass) LOW FLOW TOILETS Energy savings at WWTP COMMERCIAL, SCHOOLS & GOVT CONDENSING HOT WATER HEATERS 15-20% reduction in energy used to heat water ENERGY EFFICIENT BOILERS 25-35% energy savings COMBINED HEAT AND POWER Can double efficiency e.g., Dresser-Rand, Colton Industries

17 Manufacturing Locations of Insulation Products (per NAIMA)

18 This is Real

19 Green Investment in California $700 RPS Passed AB32 Introduced AB32 Passed 35 Millions Invested (Bars) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Pre-AB32: 20% CAGR (02-04) Post AB32: 98% CAGR (05-07) Number of Companies (Line) $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Cleantech Group

20 Green Investment in Ohio $70 Numbers are 10x smaller than California chart 14 $60 12 Millions Invested (Bars) $50 $40 $30 $20 $ Number of Companies (Line) $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Cleantech Group

21 What are the risks if we do nothing? Tomorrow s best jobs and biggest profits will go elsewhere. We will miss the opportunity to be market leaders in lucrative new fields. If the U.S. doesn t t buy my wind turbines, I ll I go to Turkey. --Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE Corporation We risk being shut out of the market altogether.

22 For More Information Additional Copies of the Report and New Chapters at: Contacts: Jackie Roberts, Director, Sustainable Technologies Phone: (202) Isabel Grantham, Research Associate Phone: (202)

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