Figure 1. Trade liberalisation scenarios. Industrial goods Market access (Swiss formula) Services Market access (Tariff equivalents reduction)

Transcription

1 Figure 1. Trade liberalisation scenarios Industrial goods Market access (Swiss formula) Services Market access (Tariff equivalents reduction) Coeff's: More Core Less Full Convergence ratio: More Core Less Full ICs ICs 20% 10% 5% 100% DCs DCs 20% 10% 5% 100% LDCs LDCs % Nuisance tariffs (3%) removed for ICs in scenarios More and Full. Trade facilitation Trade transaction costs related to border protection Direct and indirect costs Convergence to best practice: More Core Less Full All countries 50% 20% 10% 100% Agriculture More ambitious Market access More ambitious Domestic support Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 EU US,JPN Other regions 0-30% 31-60% 61-90% >90% AMS 90% 80% 70% ICs 53% 63% 68% 78% 0-30% 31-80% % >131% DCs 37% 43% 47% 53% LDCs 0% 0% 0% 0% Export subsidies Ceilings ICs 100% DCs 150% Export subsidies are removed in all regions. Agriculture Core Market access Core scenario Domestic support Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 EU US,JPN Other regions 0-30% 31-60% 61-90% >90% AMS 80% 70% 60% ICs 43% 53% 58% 68% 0-30% 31-80% % >131% DCs 30% 37% 40% 47% LDCs 0% 0% 0% 0% Export subsidies Ceilings ICs DCs NO NO Export subsidies are removed in all regions.

2 Agriculture Less ambitious Agriculture Full liberalisation Market access Less ambitious Domestic support Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 EU US,JPN Other regions 0-30% 31-60% 61-90% >90% AMS 70% 60% 50% ICs 35% 45% 50% 60% 0-30% 31-80% % >131% DCs 23% 30% 33% 40% LDCs 0% 0% 0% 0% Export subsidies Ceilings ICs DCs NO NO Export subsidies are removed in all regions. Market access Full liberalisation Domestic support Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 EU US,JPN Other regions 0-30% 31-60% 61-90% >90% AMS 70% 60% 50% ICs 35% 45% 50% 60% 0-30% 31-80% % >131% DCs 23% 37% 43% 50% LDCs 0% 0% 0% 0% Export subsidies Ceilings ICs 100% DCs 150% Export subsidies are removed in all regions.

3 Table 1.1: Regional and sectoral aggregation Region Label Sector Label Australia AUS Grains GRAINS Brazil BRA Pig- and poultry meat PPMEAT Canada CAN Dairy products DAIRY China CHN Processed food products PFOOD EU26 EU26 Other agricultural products OAGRI India IND Extraction industries EXTR Japan JPN Wood products WOOD Norway NOIC Paper products PAPER South Africa SAF Medicines & chemicals MEDCHE South Korea KOR Iron and steel FERROUS Sweden SWE Cars CARS Switzerland CHE Machinery MACHINES USA US Textiles, clothes and shoes TEXT Least developed countries LDC Other industrial goods OIND Developing countries DC Telecommunications TELE Rest of the world ROW Financial services FINANCE Construction services related to engine CONSTR Transport services TRANS Distribution services DISTR Business services BUSIN Other services (incl public utilities) OSVCS Table 1.2: Mapping of GTAP Sectors and Regions GTAP Sector Mapping GTAP Sector Mapping GTAP Region Mapping GTAP Region Mapping GTAP Region Mapping Paddy rice GRAINS Paper products, publishing PAPER Australia AUS Chile DC Hungary EU26 Wheat GRAINS Petroleum, coal products OAGRI New Zealand ROW Uruguay DC Malta EU26 Cereal grains nec GRAINS Chemical,rubber,plastic prods MEDCHE Rest of Oceania ROW Rest of South America DC Poland EU26 Vegetables, fruit, nuts OAGRI Mineral products nec OIND China CHN Central America DC Romania EU26 Oil seeds OAGRI Ferrous metals FERROUS Hong Kong CHN Rest of FTAA DC Slovakia EU26 Sugar cane, sugar beet OAGRI Metals nec OIND Japan JPN Rest of the Caribbean ROW Slovenia EU26 Plant-based fibers OAGRI Metal products OIND Korea KOR Austria EU26 Estonia EU26 Crops nec OAGRI Motor vehicles and parts CARS Taiwan ROW Belgium EU26 Latvia EU26 Cattle,sheep,goats,horses OAGRI Transport equipment nec TRANS Rest of East Asia DC Denmark EU26 Lithuania EU26 Animal products nec PPMEAT Electronic equipment OIND Indonesia DC Finland EU26 Russian Federation ROW Raw milk DAIRY Machinery and equipment nec MACHINES Malaysia DC Frnce EU26 Rest of Former Soviet Union DC Wool, silk-worm cocoons EXTR Manufactures nec OIND Philippines DC Germany EU26 Turkey DC Forestry OAGRI Electricity OSVCS Singapore DC United Kingdom EU26 Rest of Middle East DC Fishing EXTR Gas manufacture, distribution OSVCS Thailand DC Greece EU26 Morocco DC Coal EXTR Water OSVCS Vietnam DC Ireland EU26 Tunisia DC Oil EXTR Construction CONSTR Rest of Southeast Asia LDC Italy EU26 Rest of North Africa DC Gas EXTR Trade DISTR Bangladesh LDC Luxembourg EU26 Botswana DC Minerals nec EXTR Transport nec TRANS India IND Netherlands EU26 South Africa SAF Meat: cattle,sheep,goats,horse OAGRI Sea transport TRANS Sri Lanka DC Portugal EU26 Rest of South African CU DC Meat products nec PPMEAT Air transport TRANS Rest of South Asia DC Spain EU26 Malawi LDC Vegetable oils and fats PFOOD Communication TELE Canada CAN Sweden SWE Mozambique LDC Dairy products DAIRY Financial services nec FINANCE United States US Switzerland CHE Tanzania LDC Processed rice PFOOD Insurance FINANCE Mexico DC Rest of WFTA NOIC Zambia LDC Sugar PFOOD Business services nec BUSIN Rest of North America ROW Rest of Europé ROW Zimbabwe DC Food products nec PFOOD Recreation and other services OSVCS Colombia DC Albania DC Rest of SADC DC Beverages and tobacco products PFOOD PubAdmin/Defence/Health/Educat OSVCS peru DC Bulgaria EU26 Madagascar LDC Textiles TEXT Dwellings OSVCS Venezuela DC Croatia ROW Uganda LDC Wearing apparel TEXT Rest of Andean Pact DC Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa LDC Leather products TEXT Argentina DC Cyprus EU26 Wood products WOOD Brazil BRA Czech Republic EU26

4 Table 1.3 GTAP-sector Financial services Distribution services Construction services Business services Transport services Other services Proxies Banking services Distribution services Construction services. A different restrictiveness index has been used (OECD calculations). Architectural, legal, accounting and engineering services. Air transport services. Maritime (only estimated for the US). Cross-border supply of higher education. Electricity sector.

5 Table 6.1: Exports by source (percent change, value f.o.b.) LESS AMBITION Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 19,80 19,37 13,42 14,08 89,77 15,32 5,67 23,30 11,87 15,08 26,21-6,22-7,34-2,38 10,24 12,59 8,13 Grains 5,97 0,24 59,06 16,34 102,00 16,77 2,16 38,26 10,51 9,49 42,62-17,82-34,14 36,46 26,39 2,79 6,43 Pig and poultry meat 6,86 9,13 10,38 16,94 80,01 12,60 4,96 9,87 9,07 24,79 36,44-6,25 8,45 59,88-16,07 1,87 5,26 Dairy products 83,89 119,08 28,91 40,98 164,09 30,10 33,53 33,61 34,44 31,36 72,46-16,64-11,70-52,55-57,34 30,07 8,41 Processed food 27,48 14,98 13,67 19,39 241,92 31,10 9,24 33,53 25,68 18,29 57,97-2,40-6,26 6,18 10,53 20,95 15,16 Other agricultural products 6,77 0,87 8,97 2,03 16,26 4,43 4,27 11,77 1,69 12,16 11,30-6,87-7,89-6,69 17,57 8,09 2,88 Manufactures 0,52 5,88 21,72 10,07 3,53 3,09 4,79 26,26 2,05 5,59-0,09 1,97 1,04 3,09 0,28 8,19 5,19 Extraction industries 0,26 1,01 7,83 12,43 15,60 1,23 1,43 26,65 0,46 1,76 2,40-0,68-0,92 2,47-0,82-1,17 1,07 Wood products 0,55-5,26-4,88 5,62 17,18 1,70 4,62 12,58 1,04 6,66 4,20 1,97 7,53 4,78 5,83 9,49 1,55 Paper products 0,92 3,74-2,86 2,31 5,46 5,58 3,96 21,78 0,75 5,74 7,74 1,43-0,32-1,04-1,24 3,73 2,28 Medicines & Chemicals 1,85 6,30-5,35 2,78 27,95 4,15 7,25 13,43 1,29 3,97 2,26 1,09-3,14 3,64 5,97 6,39 2,77 Iron and steel 6,63 12,96-10,80 15,97-38,14 8,10 6,40 9,41 2,44 9,69 3,84 3,07 0,48-2,98 0,35 13,38 4,35 Cars 9,58-16,23-44,90 47,96 17,39-0,95 10,12 0,75 6,42-1,01-20,36 4,04 5,40-1,22-0,44-8,46 9,72 Machinery -0,94 13,04-17,11 1,24-22,19 7,41-0,98 26,56 2,21 8,81 3,14 3,34 2,81 6,13 1,82 9,65 3,07 Textiles, clothing & shoes -25,29 11,37 84,55-19,36 73,94-5,60 14,56 45,08-21,73-0,40 5,23-4,89-37,40-5,48-14,42-9,00 26,47 Other manufactures 0,14 5,26-8,59-0,92-20,01 5,47 2,34 11,88 1,17 6,03 1,89 1,93 0,91-1,09 1,37 15,67 1,20 Services -1,69-1,18-2,67-2,82-4,91-0,32 0,78 9,23 0,77 2,01 1,34 0,57-0,20-0,37-0,66 0,30 0,24 Telecommunications -0,17-0,25-2,49-1,39-4,91 0,79 1,77 10,04 1,70 2,83 2,12 0,26-0,19 0,18 0,02 1,30 0,62 Financial services -1,04-1,03-2,50-2,18-6,51 0,07 0,91 9,66 1,04 1,96 1,60 0,53-0,03-0,98-0,91 0,44 0,44 Construction services -0,59 0,01-4,52-1,82-8,01 0,93 1,26 8,56 1,73 2,44 1,90 1,16 0,35-0,02-0,07 3,07 0,56 Transport services -2,75-1,66-4,95-3,59-4,86-0,77 0,75 11,37 0,71 2,04 1,71 0,97-0,26 0,78-0,74-0,17 0,14 Distribution services -0,67-0,38-1,63-1,66-0,10 0,32 1,30 9,02 1,59 2,28 1,76 0,85 0,29-0,09-0,52 1,06 0,08 Business services -1,25-1,09-2,45-2,40-6,02-0,34 0,43 8,19 0,53 1,52 0,79 0,13-0,26-0,85-0,41 1,07 0,15 Other services -1,17-0,70-3,16-2,40-5,04-0,21 0,76 9,80 0,81 2,28 1,12 0,21-0,49-0,81-1,16 0,41 0,59 Total 4,25 6,19 16,23 8,48 4,98 4,02 4,31 22,20 2,64 5,21 8,62 0,96 0,49 2,05 0,77 7,85 4,38 Table 6.2: Exports by source (percent change, value f.o.b.) CORE SCENARIO Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 33,98 29,13 18,75 23,55 137,77 22,85 9,81 34,40 15,28 21,73 41,94-6,24-7,20 5,82 14,83 19,66 13,43 Grains 8,68 0,84 77,76 30,01 134,16 24,21 9,50 51,72 15,84 13,32 59,01-18,69-33,81 42,36 38,56-4,16 10,79 Pig and poultry meat 8,17 9,76 5,03 27,23 110,23 17,65 13,43 11,19 14,37 36,11 49,82-5,93 14,58 76,24-13,94 5,21 8,48 Dairy products 134,34 182,41 43,72 58,32 229,20 46,77 45,22 47,86 30,69 63,81 115,13-17,93-11,85-43,79-47,78 42,90 19,34 Processed food 58,70 21,15 24,22 31,03 381,06 46,28 20,59 51,44 32,39 27,86 94,95-1,20-4,94 15,60 14,50 36,10 24,56 Other agricultural products 8,30 1,66 11,33 4,18 20,81 6,76 5,52 16,62 1,55 16,15 18,53-8,17-10,16-5,64 23,67 11,06 4,54 Manufactures 0,49 9,17 33,88 15,66 7,04 7,26 8,45 37,86 3,59 9,24 2,58 2,74 1,06 4,50 0,46 12,50 8,50 Extraction industries -0,21 1,90 11,86 19,09 19,58 2,50 3,00 43,22 0,59 3,57 6,84-1,22-1,87 3,72-1,36 0,14 2,07 Wood products 1,53-7,06-4,32 13,36 26,28 3,99 12,72 21,20 1,54 12,46 11,79 4,67 8,72 5,73 9,64 12,98 3,83 Paper products 3,96 6,30-2,01 5,14 10,50 11,14 10,51 30,67 1,41 10,05 17,57 2,50-0,73-1,04-1,04 5,81 4,29 Medicines & Chemicals 2,75 11,94-8,01 5,29 42,64 7,77 13,02 19,88 1,61 6,38 6,11 1,49-4,61 5,26 8,41 6,98 4,46 Iron and steel 10,08 18,26-14,60 27,65-57,01 18,05 8,19 15,06 3,87 15,29 12,01 4,30 0,80-4,07 3,56 19,93 7,77

6 Cars 9,49-19,04-66,43 69,30 11,92 3,97 17,02 8,94 12,23 5,15-34,04 6,34 7,47-3,54-0,57 6,97 15,29 Machinery -1,70 17,55-23,72 3,66-31,64 20,16 2,20 39,78 3,07 12,92 8,85 4,67 3,13 9,26 2,98 10,42 5,59 Textiles, clothing & shoes -39,62 28,71 127,93-24,39 124,20-15,15 21,82 63,36-29,90 5,09 8,95-8,11-50,77-11,34-17,37-14,27 39,82 Other manufactures 0,97 5,61-11,59-1,04-27,90 12,71 6,92 17,39 1,14 8,66 6,09 2,30 1,05-1,68 1,88 21,13 2,63 Services -2,32-2,42-3,47-3,71-7,38-0,28 2,81 12,44 0,79 3,05 3,57 0,82-0,26-0,74-1,08-0,05 0,42 Telecommunications 0,30-0,79-2,83-1,35-6,60 1,62 4,26 13,96 2,63 4,67 4,72 0,34-0,21 0,59 0,47 1,70 1,13 Financial services -1,33-2,21-3,00-2,84-9,21 0,28 2,68 13,12 1,44 3,03 3,66 0,99 0,25-1,49-1,19 0,30 0,81 Construction services -0,89-0,88-6,31-2,49-11,93 1,91 3,17 11,76 2,15 3,47 4,00 1,59 0,42-0,21-0,27 3,95 0,82 Transport services -3,91-3,14-6,55-4,73-7,45-0,74 3,31 15,36 0,58 3,05 4,69 1,30-0,44 0,52-1,35-0,74 0,25 Distribution services -0,91-1,34-2,08-2,10-1,19 0,39 3,16 11,97 1,93 3,38 3,72 1,18 0,36-0,37-0,84 0,83 0,16 Business services -1,77-2,30-3,23-3,24-8,66-0,48 1,76 11,06 0,47 2,24 2,26 0,22-0,33-1,37-0,59 1,16 0,24 Other services -1,47-1,62-3,99-2,98-7,29-0,19 2,53 13,35 1,02 3,59 3,03 0,38-0,61-1,17-1,62 0,23 1,00 Total 7,18 9,47 25,39 13,28 8,99 7,94 7,79 31,92 4,07 8,29 15,41 1,54 0,49 3,20 1,12 11,99 7,19 Table 6.3: Exports by source (percent change, value f.o.b.) MORE AMBITION Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 69,05 46,70 37,88 49,29 324,81 40,07 26,43 52,63 25,24 38,60 79,85-3,59-5,82 17,76 24,64 39,52 27,83 Grains 8,46 2,93 179,64 65,65 209,85 42,12 41,12 73,04 28,00 17,00 177,61-17,81-26,78 51,29 51,25 6,36 22,89 Pig and poultry meat 11,19 5,75-0,03 50,61 175,53 28,61 39,52 12,13 23,89 57,08 73,19-4,96 23,12 105,73-9,71 11,89 15,00 Dairy products 247,84 265,93 91,32 94,38 321,25 89,41 91,32 80,95-0,59 131,61 191,38-11,71-13,88-32,86-39,32 86,12 43,83 Processed food 144,51 24,23 55,36 62,32 953,03 82,98 51,77 83,12 55,09 62,20 190,17 4,83 1,15 29,26 25,69 77,57 51,83 Other agricultural products 12,45 14,81 17,38 12,62 26,93 10,61 16,09 22,54 2,58 24,11 31,01-10,36-15,09-3,14 30,57 17,62 8,58 Manufactures 2,66 20,59 58,54 39,29 12,69 19,31 21,51 56,43 3,65 28,25 13,97 4,82 1,52 19,28 3,18 22,41 18,64 Extraction industries 0,41 5,98 28,20 58,81 0,77 7,38 8,32 69,27 0,29 17,04 25,76-1,42-6,09 20,08-0,88 8,37 6,34 Wood products 28,37 12,17 21,16 21,54 54,15 14,78 55,10 43,74 4,80 35,93 57,07 9,26 7,37 7,74 64,66 27,31 14,75 Paper products 25,34 4,95 1,58 14,82 19,78 23,17 29,39 46,43 9,32 23,57 40,31 7,51-1,42-10,09 1,13 12,87 11,15 Medicines & Chemicals 11,61 17,34-10,26 14,70 71,38 16,03 28,57 34,54 3,20 20,06 19,82 6,33-6,20-1,69 15,15 5,83 11,11 Iron and steel 10,65 29,12-20,72 57,76-76,71 31,18-7,36 23,21 6,38 34,27 22,11 9,67 0,74-10,42 3,88 28,27 16,37 Cars -12,54-37,26-89,58 147,35-2,27-10,26 25,01 11,37 8,07 6,95-48,40 11,78 13,64-4,90 5,28 50,00 28,02 Machinery 2,14 38,52-28,93 17,36-42,19 48,13 4,96 59,35 6,67 37,02 17,76 7,33 4,35 58,95 17,52 7,77 16,78 Textiles, clothing & shoes -42,49 32,41 193,07-24,95 157,21-30,20 55,10 90,54-34,85 10,69 22,07-10,85-69,15-26,40-27,47-18,12 57,90 Other manufactures 5,56 22,94-3,89 3,65-26,11 36,90 11,93 27,49-2,61 33,54 18,63-0,35 1,09-11,27-0,13 32,11 12,11 Services -4,06-8,06-5,75-5,12-12,95-4,03 6,27 13,22 2,90 6,90 4,57 2,46-0,45-3,96-1,64-3,03 0,90 Telecommunications 1,07-4,85-4,68-1,18-11,07-0,20 8,66 16,86 6,37 9,92 7,09 1,38-0,44-0,66 1,87 0,20 2,10 Financial services -2,16-7,45-5,21-4,11-15,38-2,40 5,65 14,89 4,46 6,59 5,06 2,91 0,88-5,03-1,09-1,75 1,76 Construction services -1,80-4,44-9,42-3,94-17,87 0,86 6,39 14,60 4,62 7,00 6,09 3,20 0,27 0,77 0,02 4,64 1,53 Transport services -6,96-9,68-10,98-6,51-12,93-5,53 7,67 15,74 2,59 7,31 6,42 3,45-1,11-3,22-2,42-4,58 0,64 Distribution services -1,44-5,94-3,20-2,38-4,37-2,58 6,53 13,04 5,02 7,41 5,16 3,20 0,88-3,43-0,58-1,61 0,38 Business services -3,14-7,36-6,05-4,76-15,05-3,90 3,69 11,84 2,06 4,96 2,27 1,24-0,43-4,00-0,64-0,59 0,43 Other services -2,60-6,60-6,64-3,68-13,07-3,67 5,68 14,20 3,27 7,84 3,70 1,71-1,20-4,33-2,10-1,94 2,06 Total 15,68 19,08 44,13 33,77 18,70 18,07 20,00 46,61 5,31 22,37 33,54 3,57 0,86 13,31 3,55 21,73 15,61

7 Table 6.4: Imports by destination (percent change, value c.i.f.) LESS AMBITION Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 1,54 16,76 41,48 9,86-0,37 4,47 3,71-1,12 23,19 5,48 6,02 5,03 3,42 12,82 18,27 2,10 8,21 Grains 13,87-3,80 36,12 3,59 69,98 4,59 1,39 23,16-2,35 2,47 13,92-2,24 7,43 15,99 48,58 1,78 6,48 Pig and poultry meat 2,14 4,52 23,82 5,50 23,71 8,37 1,49-0,53 21,24-0,21 9,22-0,03 1,51 44,64 43,58 3,81 5,34 Dairy products -16,99-35,83 53,64 39,28 24,51-9,96-23,69-25,11 747,04-17,92 1,02 8,44-1,06-25,74 108,90-36,46 8,30 Processed food 0,97 45,46 146,58 17,57-58,37 8,27 8,61-2,52 15,18 13,59 3,14 11,18 5,72 21,67 15,89 3,22 15,48 Other agricultural products 4,27 0,86 14,45 3,30 13,61 3,01 2,45-0,39 1,99 0,64 4,47 0,54 1,95 4,29 14,68 2,34 2,89 Manufactures 5,52 10,72 20,73 12,41 7,63 5,53 6,19 32,88 2,10 4,28 13,04 1,05 1,05 1,71 1,65 13,61 5,27 Extraction industries 5,60 7,88 2,85-0,62-0,13 7,05 11,91 4,78 2,05 1,08 8,24-1,74-1,34-3,08 2,22 5,85 1,10 Wood products 2,65 22,11 13,06 4,49-2,19 8,26 6,46 60,06 0,76-2,07 37,64 0,04-0,25-2,63-0,51 7,02 1,60 Paper products 3,24 12,36 13,27 9,83 8,56 5,22 5,72 15,34 1,12-1,72 5,47-0,22 0,84 3,13 3,05 14,02 2,34 Medicines & Chemicals 2,02 7,35 24,45 6,76 0,09 2,06 4,14 40,00-0,91 0,47 2,62-0,23 0,67 0,82-0,87 0,30 2,82 Iron and steel 0,31-0,27 20,64-9,54 40,26 2,87 4,15 116,40 0,99-3,05 8,10 0,26 0,04 4,78-0,42-2,25 4,42 Cars 6,26 82,40 151,76-10,75 21,14 18,56 7,88 285,87 1,86 5,47 85,61 1,71 2,15 6,43 2,81 54,61 9,82 Machinery 2,54 5,53 31,13 7,54 14,67 1,12 1,68 38,89 0,43-2,41 5,17 0,41 0,74 1,03 1,87-0,77 3,06 Textiles, clothing & shoes 38,46 22,48 20,43 76,34 10,48 28,67 17,14 107,95 28,41 43,91 41,30 9,59 3,93 1,47 5,79 93,98 27,01 Other manufactures 1,39 2,95 6,21 5,70 5,14 1,30 4,50 21,97 0,33-2,40 3,70 0,19 1,30 1,94 1,59-3,45 1,18 Services 1,03 1,05 1,99 1,83 1,54 0,69 0,13-2,51 0,11-0,88-4,00 0,04 0,42 0,58 1,06 0,91 0,24 Telecommunications 0,64 0,91 3,55 1,86 3,92 1,07 0,03-3,50 0,52-0,05-0,60 0,24-0,36 1,71 0,65 0,83 0,62 Financial services 1,35 1,48 3,10 1,82 7,01 1,45-0,26-3,24-0,11-1,09-0,87-0,12 0,14 0,90 1,16 1,18 0,44 Construction services 1,18 3,97 3,00 1,88 7,12 0,40-0,41-3,93-0,26-1,11-0,10-0,30 0,26 0,67 0,60-0,80 0,56 Transport services 1,18 1,47 1,96 1,92 1,68 0,55 0,19-2,54 0,16-0,72-10,72 0,02 1,20-0,05 1,25 0,96 0,13 Distribution services 0,82-0,38 1,60 1,63 2,26-0,18-0,38-4,60-0,58-1,52-0,61-0,12-0,18 0,76 0,43 0,35 0,08 Business services 0,59 0,55 0,81 1,60-0,71 0,59 0,15-0,90 0,24-0,93-0,16 0,09 0,14 1,04 0,39-0,50 0,15 Other services 1,20 1,26 3,26 2,27 5,63 1,29 0,44-5,14 0,25-0,97 0,05 0,19 0,54 1,46 1,69 1,52 0,59 Total 4,35 9,34 19,28 9,70 5,75 4,43 3,69 22,06 3,06 3,48 7,93 1,18 1,04 2,29 2,45 10,66 4,48 Table 6.5: Imports by destination (percent change, value c.i.f.) CORE SCENARIO Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 3,74 27,18 57,22 20,29 7,66 10,27 10,17 2,40 32,45 8,95 11,79 7,36 4,67 18,24 29,63 8,81 13,58 Grains 27,72-3,55 48,43 13,89 97,15 7,84 2,62 35,91-2,33 4,85 23,56-2,36 10,79 19,61 60,44 5,19 10,88 Pig and poultry meat 4,77 10,43 36,16 9,27 41,50 12,92 4,95 1,55 26,72 0,42 15,73 0,21 2,22 55,01 61,65 8,94 8,60 Dairy products -16,30-33,95 90,91 89,37 53,13 1,60-17,26-17, ,02-8,72 13,74 12,58-0,14-7,83 209,88-30,07 19,35 Processed food 2,66 66,39 195,80 37,15-62,51 18,59 19,85 5,30 21,57 20,53 10,13 16,26 7,81 30,52 29,68 12,55 25,09 Other agricultural products 7,21 4,25 20,74 4,99 22,06 5,02 4,36 1,06 2,63 1,55 8,02 0,72 2,51 5,70 20,42 4,74 4,57 Manufactures 9,31 15,86 33,40 18,70 12,92 10,66 9,73 46,63 3,46 6,78 23,00 1,80 1,37 2,79 2,54 20,23 8,63 Extraction industries 8,37 12,81 5,45-1,39-0,86 13,84 23,56 7,85 3,11 1,37 15,37-2,29-1,97-4,11 3,62 10,34 2,14 Wood products 4,70 31,03 22,10 7,52 1,09 23,84 9,82 79,80 2,53-2,21 64,00 0,20-0,08-3,40-0,33 23,02 3,94 Paper products 5,28 19,82 22,40 16,38 14,45 9,97 9,31 37,07 2,75-1,97 10,23-0,23 1,17 5,26 5,37 28,04 4,40 Medicines & Chemicals 3,54 10,02 38,26 10,82 1,79 3,48 6,21 57,54-0,50 1,01 5,31-0,25 0,91 1,40-0,81 4,87 4,56 Iron and steel 5,05 3,15 34,47-12,84 68,29 5,71 7,24 161,63 2,59-2,88 19,52 0,57-0,02 7,45-0,98 3,52 7,92

8 Cars 17,13 110,54 218,43-11,25 41,51 32,37 13,62 383,28 3,69 8,82 137,00 3,04 2,94 10,56 4,52 66,85 15,46 Machinery 4,28 9,14 50,99 13,27 23,52 1,68 2,36 52,71 0,91-1,15 10,20 0,79 0,94 1,71 3,08 4,07 5,57 Textiles, clothing & shoes 53,07 32,40 36,35 105,25 24,11 58,34 25,80 160,15 36,76 58,63 93,42 14,14 4,92 2,30 5,32 114,61 40,66 Other manufactures 2,53 5,31 10,29 10,46 7,48 2,67 7,51 30,89 1,12-2,01 6,36 0,70 1,69 2,96 2,85-1,26 2,60 Services 1,54 2,04 2,87 2,62 2,34 1,31-0,29-3,08 0,40-1,20-6,83 0,05 0,62 1,12 1,72 1,60 0,42 Telecommunications 1,00 1,98 5,57 2,81 5,64 2,07-0,51-4,50 1,30 0,42-1,15 0,41-0,75 3,15 1,00 1,98 1,13 Financial services 2,12 2,66 4,86 2,74 10,90 2,87-1,04-3,12 0,01-1,60-1,76-0,19 0,19 1,43 1,93 2,30 0,81 Construction services 1,79 6,59 4,32 2,69 10,85 0,55-1,34-4,93-0,03-1,59-0,74-0,42 0,36 1,11 0,96-0,75 0,82 Transport services 1,78 2,51 2,75 2,79 2,56 0,96-0,16-3,11 0,41-1,00-17,52 0,07 1,96 0,17 2,04 1,45 0,24 Distribution services 1,19 0,31 2,23 2,26 3,83-0,07-1,16-5,73-0,51-2,11-1,56-0,22-0,40 1,36 0,79 0,93 0,16 Business services 0,83 1,21 1,04 2,25-1,16 1,17-0,16-1,18 0,62-1,30-0,79 0,08 0,16 1,61 0,57-0,32 0,24 Other services 1,73 2,57 4,88 3,28 8,57 2,32 0,01-6,38 0,62-1,31-0,34 0,30 0,70 2,52 2,67 2,70 1,00 Total 7,35 14,16 30,24 15,27 10,38 8,69 6,59 31,78 4,72 5,57 14,15 1,91 1,39 3,58 3,90 16,27 7,35 Table 6.6: Imports by destination (percent change, value c.i.f.) MORE AMBITION Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Total Agricultural goods 10,23 52,08 102,16 53,96 23,74 32,76 34,88 34,52 48,48 14,61 34,81 10,59 5,57 28,30 51,66 31,80 28,22 Grains 65,96-5,47 63,05 25,47 191,22 18,78 8,02 66,04 0,49 10,26 57,62-1,58 16,77 22,55 69,57 20,28 23,09 Pig and poultry meat 12,87 21,62 65,04 17,09 47,74 28,00 18,34 11,88 35,85 1,22 38,73 0,40 3,69 71,56 94,95 21,33 15,22 Dairy products -18,01-15,13 184,18 188,36 108,23 40,95 5,29 21, ,90 0,89 68,55 17,36 4,10 30,55 454,46-7,73 44,09 Processed food 7,82 115,69 362,54 113,03-70,85 60,46 62,28 87,99 29,82 32,13 47,13 22,95 8,27 48,99 57,01 45,13 53,04 Other agricultural products 16,06 12,23 33,54 5,60 36,42 13,06 12,53 9,42 4,57 3,00 20,37 1,42 3,30 6,97 30,38 12,94 8,71 Manufactures 20,34 32,43 57,74 47,87 25,81 22,23 20,48 63,32 4,54 18,84 46,62 5,08 3,15 16,12 9,88 34,54 18,85 Extraction industries 17,04 31,68 14,14-1,79-0,03 32,93 62,21 11,03 4,05 3,69 35,45-1,96-3,51-9,20 12,52 26,76 6,47 Wood products 15,95 51,03 38,00 37,58 10,80 60,61 21,64 102,60 4,71 7,55 109,64 3,32 2,90-17,72 4,24 58,09 15,18 Paper products 11,83 52,28 46,12 35,12 34,14 28,20 23,65 67,33 3,25-0,54 39,82-0,86 4,21 24,83 26,27 61,96 11,42 Medicines & Chemicals 8,31 21,83 63,39 39,69 8,22 11,24 13,99 74,06-0,49 11,20 18,49-0,06 2,72 9,55 0,42 18,88 11,27 Iron and steel 23,45 23,68 71,09-14,83 109,72 21,66 16,33 217,01 3,84-5,37 71,94-1,39-0,34 28,53-3,24 33,65 16,71 Cars 51,27 172,92 269,51-14,59 103,07 51,44 41,03 503,09 2,89 31,44 197,52 4,91 5,52 31,46 7,00 82,98 28,36 Machinery 10,98 19,36 94,06 54,97 46,49 6,73 4,69 73,14 0,32 13,76 29,87 5,38 2,47 5,88 11,93 16,92 16,80 Textiles, clothing & shoes 65,20 53,77 65,56 144,72 61,95 96,72 39,68 225,72 44,44 74,88 174,69 19,97 6,06 6,05 12,07 136,44 59,18 Other manufactures 10,93 17,42 20,41 51,98 11,73 8,35 20,49 42,18 4,91 6,34 21,74 6,79 4,35 28,91 13,19 5,44 12,11 Services 2,74 5,88 5,47 4,02 5,70 4,53-0,57-2,31-0,31-2,83-9,14-0,48 1,15 3,55 3,19 4,26 0,90 Telecommunications 1,78 5,72 10,79 4,60 10,06 6,41-0,92-4,39 1,04 0,32-2,02 0,30-1,56 7,04 1,65 5,84 2,10 Financial services 4,02 7,68 9,26 4,49 20,16 7,75-1,94 0,01-0,74-3,60-1,61-0,84 0,42 3,92 3,25 6,07 1,76 Construction services 3,18 16,42 7,25 4,35 17,88 2,96-1,97-3,86-0,79-3,54 0,00-1,28 0,71 1,65 1,30 0,72 1,53 Transport services 3,16 6,55 5,33 4,30 5,18 3,45-0,37-2,08-0,08-2,44-24,94-0,24 3,98 1,36 4,22 3,43 0,62 Distribution services 1,97 3,32 4,17 3,10 8,19 2,57-2,36-4,87-1,95-4,51-1,50-1,14-0,95 4,32-0,97 3,73 0,38 Business services 1,45 3,60 2,34 3,42 1,08 4,10-0,24-1,06-0,11-3,01-0,19-0,59 0,14 6,95 0,82 1,46 0,43 Other services 3,12 7,61 9,26 5,24 16,38 6,99 0,11-5,08-0,30-3,10 0,53-0,19 1,23 5,60 4,66 6,53 2,06 Total 16,04 28,95 52,61 38,74 21,65 19,64 16,80 46,62 6,41 15,00 30,84 4,32 2,76 14,77 9,87 29,16 15,93

9 Table 7.1: Export by source & destination in core scenario (% change, value f.o.b.) From To EU27 Other ind. countries Dev. countries LDCs Total exports EU27-2,72 4,38 13,61 1,09 1,50 Other ind. countries 5,69 5,94 14,11 4,77 8,55 Dev. countries 12,71 12,12 16,05 11,61 13,47 LDCs 0,01 12,11 12,87 15,04 7,79 Total imports 1,78 7,88 14,65 6,32 7,19 Table 7.2: Export by source & destination with less ambition (% change, value f.o.b.) From To EU27 Other ind. countries Dev. countries LDCs Total exports EU27-1,65 2,81 8,30-0,33 0,94 Other ind. countries 3,45 3,78 9,12 3,42 5,44 Dev. countries 7,93 7,68 8,34 7,06 7,93 LDCs -1,22 8,07 7,06 7,49 4,31 Total imports 1,10 5,01 8,64 3,57 4,38 Table 7.3: Export by source and destination with more ambition (% change, value f.o.b.) From To EU27 Other ind. countries Dev. countries LDCs Total exports EU27-6,60 14,51 25,69 10,09 3,47 Other ind. countries 17,94 18,20 27,18 11,00 21,02 Dev. countries 23,59 23,75 31,73 22,96 26,17 LDCs 8,24 23,52 30,95 41,15 20,00 Total imports 4,07 19,33 28,43 16,13 15,61

10 Table 10. National income decomposition of the simulated Doha scenarios (mn USD and % of GDP) Less ambitious scenario Resource allocation Changes in productivity mn USD % of total gains mn USD % of total gains Terms of Trade mn USD Financial balance % of total gains mn USD Total Australia 732,60 59,09-34,00-2,74 499,20 40,27 42, ,70 RoW 3933,40 113,59 392,40 11, ,30-31,77 237, ,90 China 9721,80 259, ,90-107,98-624,70-16, , ,00 Japan 4999,50 48, ,70 26, ,70 24,44 13, ,20 South Korea 6774,60 92,34-907,90-12, ,30 29,09-664, ,40 DCs 10912,50 63, ,00 28,42 706,00 4,09 744, ,40 LDCs 2451,80 87,06 230,50 8,18 105,60 3,75 28, ,30 India 3454,60 629, ,50-192, ,50-356,21 107,00 548,70 Canada 2572,30 110,30 122,50 5,25-536,60-23,01 174, ,20 USA 6256,20 277,20-60,70-2, ,60-156,04-417, ,90 Brazil 1381,80 87,00-66,70-4,20 229,20 14,43 44, ,20 EU ,80 76, ,00 11, ,90 7,13 868, ,10 Sweden 299,50 56,10-74,60-13,97 303,30 56,81 5,70 533,90 Switzerland 1377,70 82,28 92,00 5,49 187,40 11,19 17, ,50 Norway 346,90 93,45-9,50-2,56 71,50 19,26-37,80 371,20 South Africa 797,70 85,31 205,50 21,98-223,20-23,87 155,00 935,10 Total 68604,60 94, ,60 5,85-47,90-0,07 10, ,70 The Core Doha Scenario Resource allocation Changes in productivity mn USD % of total gains mn USD % of total gains Terms of Trade mn USD Financial balance % of total gains mn USD Total Australia ,51 8 0, , RoW , , , China , , , Japan , , , South Korea , , , DCs , , , LDCs , , , India , , , Canada , , , USA , , , Brazil , , , EU , , , Sweden , , , Switzerland , , , Norway , , , South Africa , , , Total , , , More ambitious scenario Resource allocation Changes in productivity Terms of Trade Financial balance mn USD % of total gains mn USD % of total gains mn USD % of total gains mn USD Total Australia , , , RoW , , , China , , , Japan , , , South Korea , , , DCs , , , LDCs , , , India , , , Canada , , , USA , , , Brazil , , , EU , , , Sweden , , , Switzerland , , , Norway , , , South Africa , , , Total , , ,

11 Table 10.2 National income gains deriving from more efficent use of resources More Less ambitious ambitious Core scenario Land -0,04 0,12 0,02 Unskilled labour 0,16 0,29 0,28 Skilled labour 0,02 0,10 0,09 Capital 0,44 0,82 0,67 Natural resources 0,00 0,00 0,00 Grains 4,94 5,74 5,21 Pig & Poultry meat 1,56 1,45 1,62 Dairy products 3,17 3,35 3,30 Processed food 13,80 10,01 11,16 Other agricultural prod 8,82 9,52 8,99 Extraction industries 1,37 0,81 1,00 Wood products 1,04 0,45 0,67 Paper products 0,78 0,44 0,55 Medicine & chemical 3,65 3,45 3,39 Ferrous products 1,09 0,69 0,74 Motor vehicles 11,74 14,45 13,36 Machines 6,02 2,81 3,65 Textiles & clothing 31,10 41,30 39,72 Other industrial produ 8,67 2,56 3,78 Telecommunications 0,05 0,04 0,05 Financ -0,19-0,23-0,23 Construction 0,93 0,69 0,71 Transportation -0,35-0,34-0,25 Distribution 0,73 0,71 0,76 Business 0,17 0,21 0,22 Other services 0,34 0,56 0,56 All sectors 100,00 100,00 100,00

12 Table 11. Contribution to regional national income gains, in % of total (from own liberalisation, other IC and DC liberalisation) LESS AMBITIOUS CORE SCENARIO MORE AMBITIOUS Own liberalisation IC liberalisation (excl. own) DC liberalisation (excl own) Own liberalisation IC liberalisation (excl. own) DC liberalisation (excl. own) Own liberalisation IC liberalisation (excl own) DC liberalisation (excl own) Australia RoW China Japan South Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU Sweden Switzerland Norway South Africa Total

13 Table 12.1: National income effects - whose liberalisation benefits whom (Less ambition), share of total global gains (%) Liberalising region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade facilitation Total Benefiting region IC IC 11,14 14,85 1,64 7,42 35,05 DC -0,60 5,31-0,04 7,39 12,06 Total 10,55 20,16 1,60 14,80 47,12 DC IC 1,66 12,41-0,10 5,53 19,50 DC 9,24 4,72 2,24 17,18 33,38 Total 10,89 17,13 2,15 22,71 52,88 All IC 12,80 27,26 1,55 12,95 54,56 DC 8,64 10,03 2,20 24,57 45,44 Total 21,44 37,29 3,75 37,52 100,00 Table 12.2: National income effects - whose liberalisation benefits whom (Core scenario), share of total global gains (%) Liberalising region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade facilitation Total Benefiting region IC IC 9,65 11,61 2,00 8,84 32,10 DC 0,04 3,87-0,05 9,11 12,97 Total 9,69 15,48 1,96 17,95 45,07 DC IC 1,38 11,66-0,12 6,97 19,89 DC 6,88 4,51 2,74 20,92 35,06 Total 8,26 16,18 2,63 27,89 54,95 All IC 11,02 23,27 1,88 15,81 51,99 DC 6,92 8,38 2,70 30,03 48,03 Total 17,94 31,66 4,58 45,84 100,01 Table 12.3: National income effects - whose liberalisation benefits whom (More ambition), share of total global gains (%) Liberalising region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade facilitation Total Benefiting region IC IC 7,21 5,27 2,01 10,06 24,55 DC 0,35 10,47-0,05 11,06 21,85 Total 7,56 15,75 1,97 21,12 46,40 DC IC 1,04 7,48-0,13 8,96 17,35 DC 5,05 2,62 2,78 25,77 36,22 Total 6,09 10,10 2,65 34,73 53,57 All IC 8,24 12,75 1,89 19,02 41,91 DC 5,41 13,09 2,73 36,83 58,07 Total 13,65 25,85 4,62 55,85 99,97

14 Table 13.Effects on national income measured in equivalent variation (in million USD and % of GDP) Simulation results from the MAIN MODEL Less ambitious Core scenario More ambitious Initial GDP mn USD % mn USD % mn USD % Australia , ,70 0, ,30 0, ,90 1,05 RoW , ,90 0, ,80 0, ,10 1,92 China , ,00 0, ,00 0, ,10 1,41 Japan , ,20 0, ,30 0, ,90 0,67 South Korea , ,40 1, ,30 2, ,20 4,19 DCs , ,40 0, ,00 0, ,00 2,33 LDCs , ,30 0, ,50 1, ,80 2,92 India ,28 548,70 0,12 971,70 0, ,00 0,93 Canada , ,20 0, ,00 0, ,50 0,63 USA , ,90 0, ,50 0, ,20 0,06 Brazil , ,20 0, ,70 0, ,60 1,21 EU , ,10 0, ,10 0, ,20 0,38 Sweden ,52 533,90 0,25 712,00 0, ,70 0,59 Switzerland , ,50 0, ,70 1, ,00 2,82 Norway ,33 371,20 0,22 530,90 0, ,50 0,64 South Africa ,05 935,10 0, ,10 1, ,70 2,32 Ind. Countries , ,70 0, ,70 0, ,70 0,40 Dev. Countries , ,00 0, ,20 0, ,70 2,11 Total , ,70 0, ,70 0, ,50 0,76 Simulation results from the STANDARD GTAP MODEL Scenarios Less ambitious Core scenario More ambitious Regions Initial GDP mn USD % mn USD % mn USD % Australia ,56 676,20 0, ,00 0, ,30 0,55 RoW , ,10 0, ,10 0, ,20 1,20 China , ,10 0, ,80 0, ,10 2,08 Japan , ,10 0, ,50 0, ,20 0,34 South Korea , ,60 1, ,00 1, ,40 2,75 DCs , ,70 0, ,00 0, ,00 1,66 LDCs , ,10 0, ,80 0, ,70 2,17 India , ,90 0, ,90 0, ,50 1,03 Canada ,63 802,50 0, ,30 0,11 793,70 0,11 USA ,00 977,50 0, ,00 0, ,80 0,08 Brazil , ,30 0, ,60 0, ,80 1,55 EU , ,70 0, ,30 0, ,10 0,11 Sweden ,52 215,70 0,09 197,20 0,10 370,20 0,17 Switzerland , ,50 1, ,50 0, ,60 4,22 Norway ,33 311,40 0,28 468,50 0, ,00 0,73 South Africa ,05 728,90 1, ,10 0, ,40 2,03 Ind. Countries , ,60 0, ,50 0, ,50 0,23 Dev. Countries , ,70 0, ,10 0, ,50 1,80 Total , ,40 0, ,80 0, ,10 0,55 Simulation results from the DYNAMIC MODEL Less ambitious Core scenario More ambitious Initial GDP mn USD % mn USD % mn USD % Australia , ,67 0, ,65 1, ,11 2,39 RoW , ,46 9, ,79 13, ,58 26,71 China , ,67-0, ,50-0, ,80 1,11 Japan , ,15 0, ,09 0, ,87 1,08 South Korea , ,30 2, ,96 3, ,16 8,24 DCs , ,09 2, ,66 3, ,20 9,28 LDCs , ,78 1, ,27 2, ,47 7,07 India , ,37 0, ,46 1, ,82 3,44 Canada , ,25 0, ,30 0, ,68 1,08 USA , ,04 0, ,32 0, ,66 0,29 Brazil , ,01 0, ,59 1, ,40 3,03 EU , ,55 0, ,30 0, ,39 0,72 Sweden ,52 820,08 0, ,99 0, ,05 0,93 Switzerland , ,39 1, ,05 1, ,54 4,98 Norway , ,56 0, ,56 1, ,91 2,30 South Africa , ,11 2, ,80 4, ,13 7,78 Ind. Countries ,27 0, ,85 0, ,93 1,49 Dev. Countries ,88 1, ,43 2, ,84 6,50 Total , ,15 0, ,28 1, ,77 2,54

15 Table 14.1: Share of global export market, pre-doha scenario (%, values in world prices) Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Grains 0,08 0,01 0,03 0,03 0,00 0,16 0,00 0,02 0,10 0,30 0,02 0,23 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,01 Pig and poultry meat 0,02 0,03 0,06 0,00 0,00 0,11 0,01 0,00 0,06 0,16 0,03 0,51 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 Dairy products 0,05 0,11 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,01 0,03 0,00 0,70 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 Processed food 0,02 0,04 0,04 0,01 0,01 0,24 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,09 0,03 0,43 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,01 Other agricultural products 0,03 0,06 0,03 0,00 0,01 0,30 0,04 0,01 0,03 0,13 0,06 0,27 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,01 Extraction industries 0,04 0,11 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,53 0,06 0,00 0,05 0,01 0,01 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,07 0,01 Wood products 0,01 0,04 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,18 0,01 0,00 0,14 0,07 0,02 0,39 0,03 0,01 0,00 0,01 Paper products 0,00 0,03 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,08 0,00 0,00 0,12 0,13 0,02 0,46 0,06 0,01 0,01 0,01 Medicines & Chemicals 0,00 0,04 0,03 0,06 0,03 0,11 0,00 0,01 0,03 0,13 0,01 0,50 0,01 0,03 0,00 0,00 Iron and steel 0,01 0,08 0,02 0,10 0,04 0,14 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,05 0,02 0,44 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,02 Cars 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,15 0,03 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,09 0,11 0,01 0,50 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 Machinery 0,00 0,03 0,06 0,11 0,02 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,03 0,16 0,00 0,42 0,02 0,03 0,00 0,00 Textiles, clothing & shoes 0,00 0,04 0,28 0,03 0,05 0,21 0,02 0,03 0,01 0,04 0,01 0,26 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Other manufactures 0,01 0,06 0,10 0,09 0,04 0,21 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,12 0,00 0,30 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,01 Telecommunications 0,02 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,15 0,01 0,00 0,04 0,16 0,01 0,45 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,00 Financial services 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,03 0,19 0,01 0,49 0,01 0,07 0,01 0,01 Construction services 0,00 0,03 0,04 0,14 0,00 0,11 0,01 0,00 0,01 0,10 0,00 0,55 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 Transport services 0,01 0,03 0,05 0,05 0,03 0,13 0,01 0,01 0,04 0,19 0,01 0,40 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,00 Distribution services 0,01 0,02 0,31 0,04 0,01 0,12 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,08 0,00 0,35 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 Business services 0,01 0,02 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,13 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,18 0,01 0,47 0,02 0,01 0,01 0,00 Other services 0,01 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,02 0,12 0,01 0,00 0,03 0,30 0,00 0,38 0,02 0,03 0,01 0,00 Total 0,01 0,04 0,07 0,07 0,03 0,17 0,01 0,01 0,04 0,13 0,01 0,38 0,01 0,02 0,01 0,01 Table 14.2: Change in share of global export market, core scenario (% change) Australia ROW China Japan Korea DCs LDCs India Canada USA Brazil EU26 Sweden CHE NOIC S. Africa Grains -1,90-8,96 60,42 17,33 133,33 12,11-1,17 36,94 4,55 2,28 43,50-26,61-40,15 28,50 33,33-13,54 Pig and poultry meat -0,30 1,18-3,18 17,40 94,10 8,45 4,47 2,27 5,43 25,47 38,10-13,28 5,61 62,64-20,91-3,17 Dairy products 96,34 136,64 21,09 31,82 177,42 22,98 21,60 23,70 9,51 37,26 80,53-31,23-26,08-52,89-56,45 19,74 Processed food 27,45-2,75-0,28 5,26 286,37 17,43-3,17 21,54 6,31 2,65 56,52-20,68-23,70-7,21-8,02 9,22 Other agricultural products 3,62-2,75 6,49-0,44 15,52 2,12 0,93 11,56-2,84 11,11 13,40-12,15-14,00-9,25 18,24 6,27 Extraction industries -2,23-0,17 9,59 17,33 15,91 0,42 0,91 40,43-1,45 1,52 4,66-3,21-3,55 0,00-3,37-1,83 Wood products -2,18-10,49-7,85 9,03 21,84 0,15 8,57 16,72-2,21 8,33 7,66 0,80 4,72 1,81 5,69 8,80 Paper products -0,22 1,91-6,03 0,83 5,97 6,56 5,68 25,24-2,77 5,52 12,75-1,72-4,81-5,15-5,06 1,43 Medicines & Chemicals -1,73 7,16-11,93 0,80 36,55 3,16 7,93 14,78-2,76 1,84 1,60-2,85-8,72 0,74 3,60 2,30 Iron and steel 2,19 9,74-20,78 18,45-60,10 9,54 0,00 6,75-3,62 6,98 3,97-3,22-6,45-11,05-3,90 11,25 Cars -4,98-29,81-70,80 46,84-2,91-9,83 2,63-6,09-2,66-8,80-42,84-7,77-6,79-16,35-13,54-7,17 Machinery -6,86 11,33-27,75-1,83-35,25 13,80-3,28 32,50-2,39 6,94 3,21-0,87-2,31 3,47-2,45 4,65 Textiles, clothing & shoes -56,98-7,95 63,02-45,91 60,36-39,32-12,88 16,82-49,83-24,85-22,11-34,28-64,68-36,68-40,00-38,89 Other manufactures -1,57 2,89-13,86-3,57-29,75 9,82 4,11 14,43-1,47 5,88 3,27-0,32-1,56-4,20-0,69 18,08 Telecommunications -0,85-1,89-3,92-2,46-7,68 0,48 3,07 12,50 1,47 3,50 3,59-0,78-1,35-0,55-0,67 0,56 Financial services -2,16-2,99-3,81-3,61-9,95-0,54 1,61 12,16 0,61 2,20 2,83 0,18-0,62-2,28-1,91-0,38 Construction services -2,13-1,72-7,09-3,28-12,85 1,08 2,36 11,29 1,31 2,63 2,97 0,76-0,44-1,29-1,29 5,88 Transport services -4,12-3,36-6,79-4,96-7,68-0,98 3,04 15,08 0,33 2,80 4,48 1,06-0,59 0,25-1,54-1,00 Distribution services -1,05-1,52-2,23-2,24-1,44 0,23 3,08 11,84 1,85 3,21 3,66 1,02 0,23-0,53-0,98 0,85 Business services -1,99-2,55-3,46-3,45-8,85-0,72 1,37 10,81 0,23 1,99 2,02-0,02-0,55-1,63-0,77 2,94

16 Other services -2,45-2,61-4,92-3,99-8,21-1,18 1,56 12,20 0,00 2,56 2,06-0,62-1,59-2,17-2,40-0,56 Total 0,00 2,12 16,98 5,68 1,68 0,69 0,53 23,12-2,91 1,03 7,71-5,27-6,25-3,75-5,73 4,43 Table 14.3: Share of global export market for dairy and processed food, pre- and post-doha core scenario (%, value at world prices) Pre-Doha Post-Doha Dairy products 92 (8) 90 (10) Processed food 66 (34) 58 (42) Values displayed are for industrial countries and () for developing countries, respectively

17 Table 15. Changes in real GDP (%) qgdp Less ambitious scenario Core scenario More ambitious scenario Australia 0,20 0,30 0,60 RoW 0,60 0,90 1,70 China 0,40 0,60 1,50 Japan 0,20 0,30 0,50 South Korea 1,30 1,90 3,41 DCs 0,50 0,90 2,31 LDCs 0,60 1,20 2,92 India 0,50 0,80 1,50 Canada 0,40 0,50 0,70 USA 0,10 0,10 0,20 Brazil 0,20 0,50 1,10 EU26 0,20 0,20 0,40 Sweden 0,10 0,10 0,20 Switzerland 0,60 0,90 2,30 NOIC 0,20 0,30 0,30 South Africa 0,80 1,20 2,00

18 Table 16.1: National income effects of different elements with less ambition (% of initial GDP) Ambition LESS Region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade fac. Total Australia 0,08 0,21 0,00 0,05 0,34 ROW -0,03 0,29 0,01 0,20 0,47 China 0,09-0,02 0,03 0,19 0,28 Japan 0,03 0,17 0,00 0,05 0,24 Korea 0,95 0,49 0,02 0,21 1,67 DCs 0,02 0,14 0,03 0,32 0,51 LDCs -0,03 0,25 0,00 0,48 0,71 India 0,01-0,06 0,01 0,16 0,11 Canada 0,20 0,04 0,01 0,08 0,33 USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,02 Brazil 0,10 0,01 0,01 0,18 0,31 EU26 0,07 0,10 0,00 0,04 0,21 Sweden 0,06 0,15 0,00 0,04 0,25 CHE 0,24 0,33 0,02 0,11 0,70 NOIC 0,10 0,09 0,01 0,02 0,22 S. Africa 0,02 0,57 0,01 0,23 0,83 Total 0,05 0,09 0,01 0,09 0,23 100,00 Table 16.2: National income effects of different elements in the core scenario (% of intial GDP) Ambition CORE Region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade fac. Total Australia 0,14 0,29 0,01 0,10 0,55 ROW 0,01 0,40 0,02 0,40 0,83 China 0,11-0,10 0,05 0,35 0,42 Japan 0,07 0,23 0,01 0,09 0,40 Korea 1,15 0,66 0,04 0,42 2,27 DCs 0,03 0,24 0,06 0,65 0,99 LDCs -0,05 0,30 0,00 0,98 1,24 India 0,01-0,14 0,02 0,31 0,20 Canada 0,23 0,05 0,02 0,17 0,47 USA 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,04 0,05 Brazil 0,14-0,02 0,03 0,37 0,51 EU26 0,08 0,13 0,01 0,07 0,29 Sweden 0,07 0,21 0,01 0,04 0,33 CHE 0,30 0,46 0,04 0,22 1,02 NOIC 0,12 0,12 0,02 0,05 0,31 S. Africa 0,03 0,71 0,02 0,45 1,22 Total 0,07 0,12 0,02 0,17 0,38 Table 16.3: National income effects of different elements with more ambition (% of initial GDP) Ambition MORE Region Agriculture Manufactures Services Trade fac. Total Australia 0,24 0,54 0,02 0,26 1,06 ROW 0,07 0,84 0,05 1,02 1,98 China 0,15 0,22 0,10 0,94 1,41 Japan 0,15 0,30 0,02 0,21 0,67 Korea 1,69 1,20 0,07 1,23 4,19 DCs 0,06 0,64 0,13 1,50 2,33 LDCs -0,05 0,40 0,01 2,55 2,92 India 0,14-0,12 0,04 0,86 0,92 Canada 0,32-0,12 0,03 0,40 0,64 USA 0,01-0,05 0,01 0,09 0,06 Brazil 0,19 0,04 0,05 0,93 1,21 EU26 0,10 0,10 0,02 0,17 0,38 Sweden 0,10 0,37 0,02 0,11 0,60 CHE 0,37 1,84 0,07 0,56 2,84 NOIC 0,13 0,34 0,03 0,13 0,64 S. Africa 0,07 1,04 0,04 1,18 2,33 Total 0,10 0,20 0,03 0,42 0,76

19 Table 17: Elasticities and markup ratios across sectors ESUBD ESUBM Markup ratio* Grains 3,52 5,96 Pig and poultry meat 2,90 6,94 Dairy products 7,09 7,09 1,16 Processed food 7,09 7,09 1,16 Other agricultural products 2,37 4,72 Extraction industries 7,14 7,14 1,16 Wood products 6,63 6,63 1,18 Paper products 6,36 6,36 1,19 Medicines & Chemicals 4,90 4,90 1,26 Iron and steel 6,77 6,77 1,17 Cars 9,17 9,17 1,12 Machinery 8,20 8,20 1,14 Textiles, clothing & shoes 8,67 8,67 1,13 Other manufactures 5,30 5,30 1,23 Telecommunications 1,90 3,80 Financial services 1,90 3,80 Construction services 1,90 3,80 Transport services 2,29 5,75 Distribution services 1,90 3,80 Business services 1,90 3,80 Other services 2,01 4,06 * Only specified for sectors modelled as imperfectly competitive Source: own calculations based on data, which sources are specified in the technical annex

20 Table 18: Estimated costs of cumbersome trade procedures, tariff equivalents Direct costs Indirect costs Manufactures Agricultural goods Manufactures Agricultural goods Australia 3,58 5,37 2,76 4,14 Brazil 8,77 12,63 13,95 20,09 Canada 3,28 4,91 3,20 4,80 Switzerland 2,58 3,86 2,69 4,04 China 5,92 8,52 8,55 12,31 EU26 4,23 6,34 2,79 4,19 India 7,93 11,43 7,43 10,69 Japan 7,54 11,31 2,76 4,14 South Korea 6,82 10,23 3,18 4,77 LDCs 10,55 15,19 12,51 18,02 Norway 4,58 6,86 2,52 3,78 ROW 5,49 7,90 4,33 6,24 South Africa 6,80 9,80 6,98 10,04 Sweden 2,20 3,30 1,70 2,55 DCs 9,43 13,58 7,55 10,87 USA 3,45 5,18 2,40 3,60 Best practice in italics Source: own calculations based on data, which sources are specified in the technical annex