Motivation for the AfClix

Transcription

1 Motivation for the AfClix Extreme weather events disrupt food production, food storage, food safety and food distribution systems - our cutting-edge climate science that enhances our understanding of African weather and climate is failing to be used by policy makers to make a real impact on peoples lives in Africa

2 Motivation for the Africa Climate Exchange Extreme weather events disrupt food production, food storage, food safety and food distribution systems - our cutting-edge climate science that enhances our understanding of African weather and climate is failing to be used by policy makers to make a real impact on peoples lives in Africa

3 Motivation for the Africa Climate Exchange Extreme weather events disrupt food production, food storage, food safety and food distribution systems - our cutting-edge climate science that enhances our understanding of African weather and climate is failing to be used by policy makers to make a real impact on peoples lives in Africa Many recent disasters are evidence of a dreadful gap between science and the humanitarian sector Urgently need KE activities at the science-policy interface

4 East African Drought 2 rainy seasons (spring and autumn) March to May 2011 rains were only 30% of normal (late start, erratic distribution) Followed on from failure of Oct-Dec 2010 rains Below normal rainfall for 3 seasons in a row Agencies were warning of drought in August Greater Horn of Africa Outlook Forum (GHACOF) Feb forecast for March-May 2011 showed slightly enhanced probability of a dry season but not on scale seen... cf Rainwatch warning - Niger 2011

5 East African Drought Famine not declared until July million needing help

6 East African Drought National governments need help to increase their capacity to cope with extended periods of water shortages... by adopting relevant climate-related policies Long rains more likely to fail since Lyon and Dewitt (2012) See discussion in Cornforth (Weather, 2012) and Boyd, Cornforth, Lamb et al. (Nature, submitted)

7 World-leading science... WEATHER AND CLIMATE - Improving predictions on relevant decision-making timescales TAMSAT - Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground-based observations - vital rainfall monitoring to African NMHCs Fundamental influences of atmospheric wave patterns on short-term rainfall variability in the Sahel (NERC) Elena Tarnavsky and Ross Maidment Africa Adapt May 2011 John Methven, Steve Woolnough, Ros Cornforth, Guiying Yang FENNEC - Interactions between dust and monsoon dynamics Don t be surprised about Rainfall variability over Southern Africa how closely applicable our work is to Africa Rainfall variability over West /East Africa and downstream tropical cyclogenesis High resolution modelling to better understand weather systems and improve prediction at a range of scales over Africa, CASCADE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - Food and Crops Feasibility and sustainability of biofuels in Ghana and crop modelling CAPACITY BUILDING AfClix - Africa Climate Exchange Climate risks analysis in East Africa with African Met Services Rockefeller Foundation - support for climate change units McKnight Foundation - Agricultural research Ellie Highwood, Rich Allan, Claire Ryder Charlie Williams Kevin Hodges, Ros Cornforth Len Shaffrey, Thomas Toniazzo, Steve Woolnough Pier Luigi Vidale, Emily Black and Tom Osborne (NERC KE Fellow for Agribusiness) Ros Cornforth (NERC KE Fellow) Statistical Services centre Roger Stern Maria Noguer and Roger Stern

8 Our world-leading science... WEATHER AND CLIMATE - Improving predictions on relevant decision-making timescales TAMSAT - Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground-based observations - vital rainfall monitoring to African NMHCs Fundamental influences of atmospheric wave patterns on short-term rainfall variability in the Sahel (NERC) Elena Tarnavsky and Ross Maidment Africa Adapt May 2011 John Methven, Steve Woolnough, Ros Cornforth, Guiying Yang FENNEC - Interactions between dust and monsoon dynamics Rainfall variability over Southern Africa Rainfall variability over West Africa and downstream tropical cyclogenesis High resolution modelling to better understand weather systems and improve prediction at a range of scales over Africa, CASCADE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - Food and Crops Feasibility and sustainability of biofuels in Ghana and crop modelling CAPACITY BUILDING AfClix - Africa Climate Exchange Climate risks analysis in East Africa with African Met Services Rockefeller Foundation - support for climate change units McKnight Foundation - Agricultural research Ellie Highwood, Rich Allan, Claire Ryder Charlie Williams Kevin Hodges, Ros Cornforth Len Shaffrey, Thomas Toniazzo, Steve Woolnough Pier-Luigi, Emily Black and Tom Osborne (NERC KE Fellow for Agribusiness) Ros Cornforth (NERC KE Fellow) Statistical Services centre Roger Stern Maria Noguer and Roger Stern How can we make sure our world-leading science makes a difference?

9 AFCLIX Africa Climate Exchange Aim: Ensure that all climate-related policy decisions for improving food security can be made with access to the best-available University of Reading 2006scientific information in Sub-Saharan Africa

10 ACX Aim, Objectives and Approach Ensure that all climate-related policy decisions can be made with access to the best-available scientific information

11 Aims, Objectives and Actions Walk and talk with stakeholders to identify priorities and weak links along climate chain - governance studies/mini workshops in Africa Africa Adapt May 2011 Synthesise learning and share entry points with UK/Africa stakeholders eg. Pagoda, Avoid, Climate Science-Humanitarian Policy WG Creating opportunities for dialogue and collaboration, opening access to expertise - Afclix Exchange fora and online Afclix portal Building sustainable framework through enabling capacity and strengthening weak links - private sector eg joint publications in Africacentric and Open Access journals Upscaling lessons learned to Ghana, Niger, Ethiopia We will consider questions relating to local perceptions of extremes and what the relevant weather-related thresholds are that impact different types of vulnerability? Who are the important early warning actors? How do they interact? What kinds of early warning partnership provision exists e.g. what forms of adaptive governance (institutions and networks) and existing adaption policy narratives are already in place as a result of ongoing multiple stressors such as food security, conflict. And finally, what are the perceived barriers and the opportunities for provisioning knowledge and encouraging information flow that links and sustains early warning across scales? How can AFCLIX best contribute to the governance model Feet on the (African) ground mechanisms of knowledgesharing activities at the science-policy interface - examples...

12 Climate Science contributes to policy via AfClix: eg. CIRISA Building climate resilient agricultural system in Senegal and Sudan via bridging organizations such as AfClix Emerging role for AfClix following initial walk and talk Boyd and Cornforth (2012)

13 Climate Science contributes to policy via AfClix: eg. CIRISA Building climate resilient agricultural system in Senegal and Sudan Emerging role for AfClix following initial walk and talk Boyd and Cornforth (2012)

14 Climate Science contributes to policy via AfClix: eg. CIRISA Building climate resilient agricultural system in Senegal and Sudan..only by bringing in the whole package in research collaborations Boyd and that Cornforth we (2012) will be able to ensure climate information is packaged properly... Felipe Lucio, Head of Climate Services, WMO

15 Climate scientists connected to policy via AfClix: eg. CIRISA Building bridges for National Met Services Governance studies at Sudan Met Authority (SMA) Up to 40 years proprietary in situ met data being made available to researchers and Sudan Met Authority UoR MSc projects established Embryonic Sudan Meteorological Society connected to RMetS and other International links - future neutral exchange forum with policymakers Joint publications agreed Academic..only by bringing in the whole package in research collaborations that we will be able to ensure climate information is packaged properly... Felipe Lucio, Head of Climate Services, WMO

16 Climate Science connected through AfClix: Sugar Cane Cultivation - Ghana to Sudan Building on ICWALPA (ESPA) Extending analysis to Sudan in partnership with Kenana Sugar Company MSc project realised. PhD studentships online - scholarship program Up to 40 years proprietary in situ met data being made available to researchers and Sudan Met Authority Joint publications agreed Emily Black Regional)relevance:) Environmental,impact,of,growing, sugarcane,in,west,africa, (par7cularly,on,water), Irriga7on,of,sugarcane,in,southern, Africa,(from%Sugar%and%the% Environment%%WWF%2004).,

17 Climate Science connected via AfClix: FEWAS (new large grant consortium) Forecast Evaluation for Water and Agriculture in sub- Saharan Africa (FEWAS) Evaluating models and defining metrics for userrelevant impact AfClix delivering impact for new consortium NEW!

18 Climate Scientists connected to UK/African policymakers via AfClix: Knowledge sharing Policy relevant metrics of the Changing Water Cycle for UK and Africa (Pagoda) Developing links with UK policymakers (AVOID) Working with Met Office Knowledge Integration team Comparative governance studies (Pagoda, AfClix and Human Environments Research Group (Dr Emily Boyd, SHES) Links through to Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST) Leading Climate Science-Humanitarian Policy (CSIHP WG)

19 Climate Science enabled and into African policy (NGOs) via AfClix - Our Climate Proposal What does the climate look like where I live? Monitoring rainfall variability in secondary schools Building capacity bottom up. Meets Early Warning-Early Action top down IoP (Dipali Bhatt-Chauhan, Beth Taylor), UCL (Stephen Edwards), RMetS (Paul Hardaker), CAFOD, NCAS Comic Relief

20 NCAS Science enabled and into African policy NGOs) via AfClix - Teaming up with OXFAM DRR Visit from Oxfam Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Team in November In-country connections developed New research projects Small pilot project funded for a 'peer review' function for Uganda coffee programme (Tom Osborne) to engage a Uganda-based university or research institute to do a coffee and climate change study. MSc project established on Asian monsoon rainfall trends Keen to learn more about climate change impacts on 1) shea or cocoa production in Ghana; 2) coffee or sesame in Ethiopia; or 3) new opportunities eg. watermelon in southern Vietnam, or strawberries in Ethiopia. Hopefully the first of many collaborations...

21 Climate Science enabled and into African policy (NGOs) via AfClix - Red Cross Crescent Climate Centre, Senegal New collaborations and new learning Build on pioneering participatory games and exchange work with Humanitarian Futures Programme New research projects Talking Science, Talking Sense film

22 Aims, Objectives and Actions Africa Adapt May only by bringing together the whole package in research collaborations that we will be able to ensure climate information is packaged properly... Felipe Lucio, Head of Climate Services, WMO

23 Aims, Objectives and Actions Africa Adapt May 2011 Get involved! Would you like to get involved in this growing community?