Influencing Factors and Evaluation Index of Farmers Financial Needs based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Transcription

1 Influencng Factors and Evaluaton Index of Farmers Fnancal Needs based on Analytc Herarchy Process Yuqu Ca, Zhan Yang, Mo Zhang * School of Economcs and Management, Northeast Agrcultural Unversty, Harbn , Chna *Correspondng author(e-mal:63cyq@163.com) Abstract In ths paper, the author make evaluaton analyss of farmers' fnancal needs based on analytc herarchy method. The Three agrculture-related ssues s the sgnfcant problem that Chna needs to solve, and rural fnance s the key to solve ths related ssues. In ths paper, we take farmer s lendng behavors as a startng pont and make the practcal research of farmers lendng behavors n Harbn, then use relevant statstcal methods to study the fnancal demands of farmers. By analyzng the nfluental degree of dfferent factors on the farmers fnancal demands, then we use the AHP to establsh the rural fnancal demand ndex evaluaton system and promotes the suggestons of rural fnancal development. Key words: Rural fnance, Lendng behavor, Analytc herarchy process, Index evaluaton system 1. INTRODUCTION As the man unt of agrcultural producton, farmers are more dffcult to fnance. Because the self accumulaton of captal s not suffcent to expand the scale of agrcultural producton, coupled wth the lack of avalable correspondng collateral, to obtan bank credt support s also more dffcult, resultng n agrcultural productvty s stll at a relatvely low level of development, so that the ncome of the farmers has been hoverng n the low level, whch also led to the declne of farmers and rural savngs the ablty to drop, farmers and rural areas savngs n turn caused by a shortage of captal, captal shortage has serously affected the producton effcency, leads to a vcous spral stuaton. In order to mprove agrcultural productvty, promote rural economc development, fully meet the fnancal needs of farmers, promote farmers' ncome and agrcultural producton and ensure the steady development of rural economy s our current problems. Due to the nfluence of hstorcal development and the development strategy of commercal fnancal nsttutons s not approprate, the vast rural areas of formal fnancal nsttutons ste serously nsuffcent, lendng standards are extremely harsh, wth some other rregular phenomenon, the fnancal needs of farmers was serously nhbted, supportng agrculture efforts need to be further mproved, varous problems urgently need to be addressed n order to acheve the greatest degree of ntegraton, the exstng fnancal resources more effcently, effectvely supportng the economc development needs. 2. THE FINANCIAL NEEDS OF FARMERS EVALUATION SYSTEM Ths paper selects the evaluaton ndex system AHP to establsh fnancal demand, and accordng to the questonnare survey of the farmers, the factors affectng the fnancal needs of farmers are dvded nto three categores: factors nfluencng factors of ncome, and fnancal nsttutons. The factors affectng ncome s dvded nto the cultvated area, the number of mgrant workers and state subsdes; nfluence factors of nto producton, lvng expenses and emergences; factors of fnancal nsttutons s dvded nto lendng procedures are complex, the number of outlets s adequate and lendng standards are strngent (the three ndcators for evaluaton of non dentty "yes," wth "1" to say "no" to use the "0" sad). The evaluaton system s shown n the followng table: Table 1. Household fnancal demand evaluaton system Target layer Crteron layer Index layer The evaluaton system of farmers' fnancal needs(a) Income factors(a1) Factors of fnancal nsttutons (A2) Cultvated land area (C1) Number of mgrant workers (C2) State subsdes (C3) Borrowng procedures are complex (C4) 832

2 Number of outlets (C5) Lendng standards are strngent (C6) Producton (C7) Expendture factor (A3) Lvng (C8) Emergency (C9) 3. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 3.1. data sources and processng In ths paper, a questonnare survey (January 2015 to February), selected 100 households as the object of nvestgaton, ssued a total of 100 questonnares, the recovery of 95 questonnares, the effectve recovery rate of up to 95%. By the survey of 95 households, the average age s 48, the average famly resdent populaton of 3 people, average household labor number 1.47 people, ncludng labor culture s prmary school level have 19 people, accountng for 20%, level of junor hgh school 39 people, accountng for more than 41% secondary level 5 people, accountng for more than 5%. The hgh school level has 28 people, accountng for more than 30% college or above the level of 4 people, accountng for more than 4% of the labor force educaton level weghted average derved average labor educaton for secondary school, we can see that Qn Xang Yu Feng Cun labor culture degree s not very hgh, but the average cultvated land area of acres, the average labor the level of annual ncome s yuan model fttng and fttng In ths paper, AHP s used to construct the evaluaton ndex system of rural households' fnancal demand. In order to reduce the AHP n the analyss of errors, ths paper uses statstcal software SPSS lnear regresson analyss was performed to determne the degree of nfluence on Farmers' fnancal needs of varous nfluencng factors wth quanttatve method, so as to establsh judgment matrx and provdes a more objectve and reasonable bass, reduce the subjectve error. In ths paper, lnear regresson analyss wll not be taken nto account. The followng results are obtaned by usng the lnear modelng analyss of statstcal software spss: 1. model fttng results Table 2. Correlaton coeffcent table Pearson correlat on Sgnfc ance test Number State Fnancal Cultvated Producton Lvng of mgrant subsdes demand area workers (mnmum) Fnancal demand Cultvated area Number of Emergency mgrant workers State subsdes (mnmum) Producton Lvng Emergency Fnancal demand Cultvated area Number of mgrant workers State subsdes (mnmum) Producton Lvng

3 N Emergency Fnancal demand Cultvated area Number of mgrant workers State subsdes (mnmum) Producton Lvng Emergency Accordng to Pearson correlaton coeffcent, there s a lnear correlaton between the nfluence factors and the fnancal needs of farmers. The cultvated area, the number of mgrant workers, state subsdes (mnmum), producton expenses, lvng expenses and emergency and fnancal needs of the correlaton coeffcents were 0.423, , ,0.423,0.449, It provdes a reasonable bass for the constructon of the judgment matrx. 2. Model fttng analyss: Fgure 1. Model summary We can see that the fttng accuracy of the model s 98%, whch shows that the model s of hgh accuracy. 834

4 Fgure 2. Resdual dstrbuton hstogram of 3-2 regresson model Accordng to the hstogram of the resduals of the regresson model, the measured values and the actual values are located n the confdence nterval. Fgure 3. Straght lne fttng It can be seen from the correspondng lnear fttng chart that the survey data are dstrbuted on both sdes of the lne, and the trend s strctly obeyng the straght lne. The constructon of comprehensve accuracy chart, resdual dstrbuton map and lnear fttng model. 3. Determne the mportance of nfluencng factors 835

5 The degree of nfluence can be seen from the fgure of farmers' fnancal needs emergency spendng, lvng expenses and the cultvated area of lttle mpact on the fnancal needs of farmers, producton, that can nfluence factors on the extent of the fnancal needs of farmers. Combned wth the correlaton coeffcent table, we can establsh a more reasonable evaluaton ndex system of ahp. 4. The fnancal demand of farmers It can be seen from the chart that the fnancal needs of most of the surveyed households are less than yuan, only a very small number of farmers n the fnancal needs of more than yuan. 5.The man factors affectng the fnancal needs of farmers Fgure 4. The mpact of unexpected on household fnancal needs 836

6 Fgure 5. The mpact of on household fnancal needs Fgure 6. The mpact of lvng on household fnancal needs Fgure 7. The effect of cultvated land on the fnancal needs of farmers The predcton from the mpact factors trends, can see the mpact on Farmers' fnancal needs emergency degree s bg, and a lot of volatlty, the relatve factors dffcult to control; mpact on the fnancal needs of farmers, producton costs and lvng expenses s relatvely stable; more arable land amount of farmers s relatvely smaller land area of farmers have more bg fnancal demand The evaluaton system of farmers' fnancal needs (1) establsh the herarchy of ndex system. The herarchy of ths paper s shown n the second part. It s the 837

7 target layer, the ndcator s the crteron layer and the ndex s the ndex layer. (2) constructng judgment matrx. Make a comparson of a set of ndcators on the same level, and determne the grade accordng to the mportance of each other. Table 3. Comparson scale of judgment matrx Scalng Meanng 1 The two factors are equally mportant to each other 3 Two factors are compared wth each other, one s slghtly more mportant than the other 5 Two factors are compared wth each other, one s obvously more mportant than the other 7 Two factors are compared wth each other, one s more mportant than the other 9 Two factors are compared wth each other, one s more mportant than the other 2 4 The medan of the two adjacent judgments 6, 8 The medan of the two adjacent judgments Recprocal The recprocal of the two factors correspondng to each other n order of mportance (3) calculaton of each ndex weght. One factor s more mportant than the other factor s to calculate the value of the largest egenvalue of the comparson matrx and the correspondng feature vector. In ths paper, we use the method of root mean square: 1.Calculate the n square root of the product of each row of N judgment matrx A, get the vector N ] [ N1, N2 N N T N n n 1 j ( 1,2,3, n) 2.Calculate the weght vector s the egenvector, whch W : W N n j 1 3.Calculate the maxmum egenvalue of the judgment matrx one-tme test, whch: max n 1 Nj n 1 ( W ) W max, used to determne the matrx of a 4.consstency test. Because the dfference of subjectve cognton may lead to the matrx judgment s not consstent, so the random consstency rato s used to check t: CI CR RI In ths formula: CR : Random consstency rato; CI : Dsposable ndcator, CI ( max n ) /( n 1) : RI The average random consstency ndex, whose value can be calculated from the table accordng to the order of the judgment matrx: when CR 0. 10, descrpton sortng s vald; when CR That sort s nvald. Table 4. Average random consstency ndex RI n RI Determnng the weght of evaluaton ndex: In ths part, we adopt the analytc herarchy process to determne the weght of evaluaton ndex. The analytc herarchy process to determne the assgnment, so we refer to a certan amount of data to understand the specfc crcumstances of each ndex, then we compared the 1-9 accordng to the scale of assgnment, establsh 838

8 judgment matrx, and through the MATLAB programmng to obtan the weght of each ndex value. (1) establsh the judgment matrx of the target layer and the crteron layer, and use MATLAB programmng to calculate the weght value of the ndex and the consstency test. The target layer s the general ndex of the fnancal evaluaton system of the rural households. All the frst level ndcators 22 were compared, the judgment matrx was obtaned, and the consstency test was calculated: Table 5. Judgment matrx A A A A1 A2 A3 Weght A / A2 1/3 1 1/ A max=3.002 CI=0.001 CR=0.001 Consstency check (2) establsh the judgment matrx of the crteron layer and the ndex layer, and use MATLAB programmng to calculate the weght value of the ndex and the consstency test. The crtera layer s used to ndcate that the ndcator layer s used to represent. The correspondng results are shown n the followng three tables: Table 6. Judgment matrx A C A1 C1 C2 C3 Weght C C2 1/ C3 1/ max=3 CI= e-16 CR= e-16 Consstency check Table 7. Judgment matrx 1 A C A2 C4 C5 C6 Weght C C5 1/ C6 1/ max=3.009 CI=0.005 CR=0.008 Consstency check Table 8. Judgment matrx 2 A C A3 C7 C8 C9 Weght C C8 1/2 1 1/ C max=3.005 CI=0.003 CR=0.005 Consstency check Based on the above judgment matrx, the result of the evaluaton system s obtaned: Arrangement (C) Table 9. Analytc herarchy process Arrangement A1 A2 A Herarchy total orderng C C C C C C C C C The weght of each factor s obtaned from the table, and the ndex system of the fnancal needs of farmers s establshed by the above weghts: 839

9 D=0.158 C 0.039C 0.039C 0.052C 0.016C 0.014C C 0.189C 0.405C Among them: D for the fnancal needs of farmers 4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS The followng conclusons are drawn from the combnaton of lnear regresson and herarchcal orderng: (1) the degree of mpact on Farmers' fnancal needs emergency spendng, lvng expenses and the cultvated area of lttle mpact on the fnancal needs of farmers, producton, that can nfluence factors on the extent of the fnancal needs of farmers. (2) the fnancal needs of most of the surveyed households are less than yuan, only a small number of farmers' fnancal needs are more than yuan. (3) the degree of mpact on the fnancal needs of farmers, emergences, and the emergence of large fluctuatons, ndcatng that ths factor s dffcult to control; mpact on the fnancal needs of farmers lvng and producton s relatvely stable; more arable land amount of farmers s relatvely smaller land area of farmers have greater fnancal demand. (4) the dstrbuton of ncome, and fnancal nsttutons n the whole evaluaton system: 0.236,0.082, The cultvated area, the number of mgrant workers, state subsdes, loan procedures are complex, the number of outlets s enough, whether the strct lendng standards, weghts of, lvng expenses and emergency producton dstrbuton 0.158,0.039,0.039,0.052,0.016,0.014,0.088,0.189, From the current perspectve, to solve the dffcult problem of loans to farmers as rural fnancal nsttutons especally the prorty among prortes of rural credt cooperatves, startng from the farmer's perspectve, the fnancal servce for the people, so that people are satsfed, as credt cooperatves n agrculture work, so as to solve the practcal problems of farmers lvng. Therefore, the followng suggestons are put forward pay attenton to the adjustment of agrcultural structure, the establshment of structural adjustment fund Rural fnancal sector should always pay attenton to the adjustment of agrcultural structure, and adjust the polcy focus n accordance wth ts changes, so that the full development of rural economy, so that the lvng standards of farmers gradually mprove. So, put the funds nto the producton of farmers, encourage dfferent forms of agrcultural producton and operaton loans. The rural fnancal sector wth partcular attenton to professonal nvestors, because they are often able to play an exemplary role n economc development, wth the professonal large, rural fnancal sector can ncrease the credt, so as to promote the development of economy. The government can provde approprate subsdes for farmers n the process of structural adjustment, as far as possble to reduce the rsk faced by farmers n the process. The government has advantages n producton, can be extracted as part of the funds to support the specal subsdes, n addton, f meet the agrcultural product market overall depresson that farmers' ncome s low, the government should take approprate measures to compensate for the loss of farmers, so have the support of the government, can contnue to develop the advantages of the project farmers ncrease nvestment n agrculture credt Agrculture s the foundaton of the economy, and the problem of agrculture s the most mportant problem n the future economc development. Rural credt cooperatves are farmers around the tangble fnancal, s the man force to meet the fnancal needs of farmers, rural credt cooperatves s not fully play ts role n provdng credt s whether the fnancal needs of farmers to meet the key to reduce the farmers lendng standards, no shape to expand the rural credt cooperatves feld servce. Credt cooperatves total credt nvestment to agrculture has been mproved year by year, farmers are the economc development of our country, after the "engne", the loan amount for farmers n the total amount of new lendng n the proporton reached 60%-70%, so as to make the fnancal needs of farmers contnue to mprove. Of course, the credt unons to ensure the ablty to lend, reasonable arrangements for the use of funds strengthen the mechansm constructon, mprove the credt management Is a large loan for some professonal nvestors should adjust the amount of the loan, after the farmers n the detaled record of the dentty nformaton and economc exchange fles, we can consder the establshment of a hgher loan amount for loans to farmers wth good credt, to meet the dfferent needs of the farmers and agrcultural projects. The two s to smplfy the loan approval procedures, large loans to some professonal nvestors, can be approprate to reduce the approval procedures, f suffcent funds comples wth the standards of farmers, rural 840

10 credt cooperatves can drect funds wll be ssued to farmers hands, makng loans to farmers more easly, and to encourage the development of rural economy. The three s the marketng of farmers' loans as one of the staff assessment, and gve approprate encouragement. Approprate accordng to the actual stuaton of local wage ncentve can arouse the enthusasm of the staff to sell loans to farmers, so the rghts and oblgatons made consstent wth matchng punshment or reward measures accordng to ther actual work, thus ncreasng the total loans of farmers, wth the economc development. The four s the loss of responsblty wll cause the loan classfcaton, dfferent stuatons should be flexble to treat, so, f the loans of farmers due to the emergency stuaton caused serous losses, the government should gve approprate subsdes to help the lender, so people are not afrad of loans credt ratng of farmers Combned wth the specfc crcumstances, to establsh between rural credt cooperatves and farmers credt system, fnancal nsttutons under the number of outlets s nadequate, we must establsh a credt ratng system, make better understandng of the rural credt cooperatves of farmers. Based on Farmers' credt evaluaton, classfcaton, to determne the gradng standards and the correspondng amount of lendng, so that farmers can not only apply for mortgage loans, can also apply for credt loans, ncreasng the fnancal needs of farmers to get the possblty of satsfacton, but also ncrease the loans to farmers, whle farmers wthout collateral to loan, can to solve the problem of farmers' loans. REFERENCES: Akram, W., Z. Waqar, M. H, Sal et al. (2008). Agrcultural Credt Constrants and Borrowng Behavor of Farmers n Rural Punjab. European Journal of Scentfc Research,23(2), Pu Y. (2010). The credt needs of farmers n Schuan: an emprcal study. Southwestern Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, Qu Yng. (2014). Study on credt evaluaton of farmer cooperatves. Northeast Agrcultural Unversty, Tang Wenbn, Zeng yong. (2010). Study on Optmzaton of rural fnancal ecosystem. Journal of Jshou Unversty: Socal Scence Edton,31(1), Xu Zhyong. (2002). The causes and Countermeasures of the current rural household loans. theory monthly, 6,