Internal and External Environment Analysis on Financial Strategy in Chinese PV Enterprise Yongchen Li1, a, Fang Li1, b

Transcription

1 Internatonal Conference on Educaton, E-learnng and Management Technology (EEMT 2016) and Envronment Analyss on Fnancal Strategy n Chnese PV Enterprse Yongchen L1, a, Fang L1, b 1 School of Economcs and Management, North Chna Electrc Power Unversty, Baodng , Chna a @qq.com, bworkmbox_beryl@126.com Keywords: PV enterprse; fnancal strategy; mproved grey relatonshp analyss method; fuzzy evaluaton method Abstract. Development of Chnese PV ndustry meets great obstacles n current. Amng to fnd out the ndces prevent the development of Chnese PV enterprse and put forward constructve advces for that, ths paper analyzed the nternal and external envronment on fnancal strategy of YINGLI GROUP bases on mproved grey relatonshp analyss method and fuzzy evaluaton method. The study found that ndces of supports of natonal government polcy, good development stuaton of new energy ndustry and nternal self-developed technology have the greatest mpact on PV enterprse. Therefore, some suggestons as follows are gven by ths paper, that s, fnance-related polces such as subsdes, tax and fnancng should be fully utlzed to generate proft and opportuntes for enterprse when formulatng fnancal strateges, ncreasng nvestment of fund for technology research and development wthn the enterprse and explot domestc market. 1. Introducton Photovoltac (short for PV) ndustry refers to the chan that formed wth applcaton development of slcon materal as the core, and ncludes producton of crystallne slcon materal, slcon-bonded wafer and solar cells, encapsulaton of components and applcaton of PV power generaton system [1]. In recent years, rapd development has appeared n domestc PV ndustry wth large number of PV companes establshed n support of natonal polces, whch made Chna become the largest PV component producers n the world n 2007 [2]. However, development of PV enterprses are facng severe stuaton at the nternatonal and domestc stll, such as ntense competton n the global market, fallng growth n demandng for PV products, large nvestment n PV R&D technology and hgh cost of PV power, etc.. For ths, correspondng countermeasures angle n fnancal strategy of enterprses were put forward that manly nclude nvestment strategy, fund-rasng strategy and dvdend dstrbuton strategy, pertnence and operablty of whch are nadequate manly due to the lack of scentfc analyss on nternal and external envronment of PV enterprses. Thus, mproved grey relatonshp analyss method was proposed to analyze the nternal and external envronment on fnancal strategy n Chnese PV enterprse and provde references wth fuzzy evaluaton method combned and YINGLI GROUP of whch the PV module shpments ranked frst n the world as object. 2. The Improved Grey Relatonshp Analyss Method and Fuzzy Evaluaton Method 2.1 The Improved Grey Relatonshp Analyss Method The tradtonal grey relatonshp analyss s comparatve analyss by quantfyng dynamc development process of factors. The calculaton steps are as follows [3]: Frst, generate standard data array and comparatve seres after determnng factors and collectng orgnal data at each pont n the tme seres. Second, generate new standard data array and comparatve seres after ntal treatment performed n orgnal data usually by dvdng all orgnal data wth the frst one n the same seres. Thrd, calculate the correlaton coeffcent of comparatve seres at each tme pont respectvely. Fourth, calculate the correlaton degree by weghtng averagng the correlaton coeffcents. Ffth, descendng order comparatve ndces by correlaton degree, ths shows the degree of nfluence on standard factors The authors - Publshed by Atlants Press 388

2 However, the tradtonal grey relatonshp analyss method descrbes the systematc development trend, that s, the orgnal statstcs are often values n tme seres of each ndex. But t s n applcable when statstcs of factors are unable to get or study on tme seres changes s pontless. And uncertanty exsts n weghts due to that correlaton among ndces vary wth the change of dstngush coeffcent. Even more, qualtatve method lke expert evaluaton should be used n case of the loss of nformaton of orgnal data caused by usng mathematcal methods smply. And ths paper mproved the tradtonal grey relatonshp analyss method by ntroducng n experts value of emprcal judgment for the weght of each factor. And the specfc calculaton steps are as follows [4] : Frst, hre experts wthn the ndustry to select the key ndces accordng to condtons of the external economc, socal, polcy, stuaton of ndustry development and enterprse tself, and to judge ther weghts n the system then, and thereby form an experence judgment matrx as follow. X = ( x k) mn = ( X 1, X 2, X 3...X Τ m) (1) Then, generate the standard data array X 0 formed by the maxmum value of weghts n matrx X. X 0 = (x 01,x 02,x 03...x 0n ) (2) Then the dstance between each comparatve seres and standard data array: n 2 D ( ) 0 = x k 1 0k -x = k (3) Then, the weght of each ndex: w= 1 ( 1+ D0) (4) Fnally, normalze the weght of each ndex n formula (4): w w = n (5) w = Fuzzy Evaluaton Method Fuzzy evaluaton method makes comprehensve evaluaton based on the prncple of maxmum membershp degree ntroduced from fuzzy mathematcs, and be calculated as follows [5] : Frst of all, an evaluaton team should be establshed of whch members consttuted by managers and researchers related to enterprse management practce and research to select mportant ndces. Then, an evaluaton set V should be establshed, accordng to whch each ndex wll be evaluated. And V = {good, better, general, poor, very poor}. Thus, the evaluaton matrx presented as follow: R = ( r j) mn = ( R1, R 2,R 3...R Τ m) (6) Fnally, do fuzzy operatons by the followng formula wth w and evaluaton matrx: B= w R (7) 3. Emprcal Analyss 3.1 Selectng mportant ndces (1) opportunty X1: Chna s rch n solar energy resources. Most of Chnese vast terrtory possesses long hours of sunshne and hgh solar radaton ntensty, whch create great potental of solar energy explotaton. X2: Wth the natonal polces supportng development of PV ndustry and the mprovement of polcy system, space of compensatory growth has gven to PV ndustry. In July 2012, Natonal Energy Board expressed support PV capacty of more than 21 GW n 2015 [2] and of 50 GW n 2020 [6]. At June 8, 2015, Natonal Energy Board, the Mnstry of Industry and Informaton Technology and CNCA jontly ssued Opnons on promotng the applcaton of advanced PV technology products and ndustral upgradng to support the PV ndustry. (2) threats X3: Operatons of PV companes are attacked by the poor macroeconomc stuaton to some degree. 389

3 X4: Domestc PV products occupy a very small market sze whch and Western countres products a gap stll exst between the market acceptance for. X5: Domestc and nternatonal market competton ntensfes lead to overcapacty. Numerous homogenzaton of development n Chnese PV ndustry, the rse of the PV ndustry n Malaysa and Phlppnes and jont expanson of producton capacty from two solar energy gants of Frst Solar and Sun Power ncreased competton n domestc and foregn markets. X6: Chnese ndustry reled heavly on the nternatonal market, such as the substantal mports of slcon materal and large exports of solar products. Foregn economc stuaton, polcy changes and fluctuatons n foregn exchange rates, etc. affect the development of Chnese PV busness, and Chna s facng crses of ant-dumpng, ant-subsdy. (3) The nternal advantage X7: PV ndustry s n lne wth long-term natonal development plan and there are good prospects by followng the trend of era wth ncreasng global warmng and envronmental pressures. X8: Operatng condtons mproved wth the expanson of ndustral scale. YINGLI got a hgh record of PV module shpments of 3.3GM and gross margn year growth of 6.4% percent n (4) The nternal dsadvantage X9: Dffcultes and hgh cost n fnancng caused by hgh busness rsk restrcted the development. X10: Core technology and advanced equpment manly rely on developed countres due to the lack of R&D. And the producton of Hgh-purty polycrystallne serously pollutes the envronment [7]. 3.2 Index System An ndex system shown as Fgure 1 can be establshed accordng to the key factors above. Chna s rch n solar energy resources. opportuntes and external envronment analyss on fnancal strategy n PV enterprse envronment envronment threats strengths weaknesses Natonal polcy support, ushered n compensatory growth space. Poor macroeconomc fortune. Small-scale of domestc consumer market. Ferce competton at home and abroad, excess capacty. Energy savng and envronmental frendly. Large-scale ndustry and busness condtons mproved. Fnancng s dffcult wth hgh fnancng costs. Low ndependent R&D capablty and core technology reles on mports. Dual crss. Fg. 1 Index system for nternal and external envronment analyss on fnancal strategy of YINGLI GROUP 3.3 Weghtng Based on Improved Grey Relatonshp Analyss Method The emprcal judgments ndcators X 1 to X 10 of fve experts are shown as n Table 1. Table 1 Judgment value of weghts for the nternal and external envronmental analyss of YINGLI Num. X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X 7 X 8 X 9 X Experence judgment matrx s shown as formula (8) accordng to Table 1 wth comparatve 390

4 seres X 1 to X 10 and the maxmum weght value of 0.23 set to the weght of standard data array X X = ( X 0, X 1,, X 10) = (8) Results are obtaned as n table 1, table 2 and table3 accordng to formula (3) to formula (5): Table 2 Dstance between comparatve seres and standard data array DIS D 01 D 02 D 03 D 04 D 05 D 06 D 07 D 08 D 09 D 10 Val Table 3 Weghts of ndces (w ) w w 1 w 2 w 3 w 4 w 5 w 6 w 07 w 8 w 9 w 10 Val Table 4 Weghts of ndces (w ) w w 1 w 2 w 3 w 4 w 5 Val Comprehensve Evaluaton Based on Fuzzy Evaluaton Method In order to determne nternal strengths and external opportuntes accurately and avod threats and weaknesses contrapuntally, t s necessary to apply fuzzy evaluaton method to nternal and external envronment analyss followng the mproved grey relatonshp analyss method. The fuzzy relatonshp matrx R based on evaluaton set V s shown as formula (9) R = (9) Calculate the fuzzy evaluaton matrx B accordng to the formula (7): B= w R= (0.1828, , 0.129, 0.27, 0.255) (10) w 6 w 7 w 8 w 9 w Concluson Through analyss, we can conclude that three ndces of X 2, X 7 and X 10 have the greatest mpact on PV enterprses. On the whole, there s not only a postve sde but also a downsde n the nternal and external envronment n Chnese PV enterprses, and followng vews are suggested for 391

5 scentfc fnancal strateges bulds. Frstly, the governments are very supportve of the development of PV ndustry currently, and varous favorable polces have been ntroduced whch need to be studed by busness managers. And ones especally related to government subsdes, tax ncentves and the credt, etc. are strongly suggested when formulatng fnancal strateges. Secondly, pay attenton to ntroducton and cultvaton of R&D personnel of talent, mprovng the fund nvestment for technology research and tryng breakng through techncal dffcultes and mprovng the qualty of products n order to reduce product costs radcally. Fnally, nternatonal market has been expanded to some degree by PV enterprses sponsorng actvtes lke global large-scale events for a long tme. However, wth the shrnkng of nternatonal market demand, t s emergently necessary to attract more domestc consumers by ncreasng the nvestment of explotaton of domestc market. 5. Reference [1]. We Yang. Research on the development strategy of Chnese PV ndustry [D]. Chengdu: Southwestern Unversty of Fnance and Economcs, (In Chnese) [2]. CNII. Study on market development of Chnese solar PV ndustry [EB/OL]. [3]. Sfeng Lu, Hua Ca, Yngje Yang, etc. Advance n grey ncdence analyss modellng [J]. System Engneerng Theory and Practce, 2013, (8): [4]. Je Cu, Yaoguo Dang. An mproved approach for determnng weghts of attrbutes n decson makng based on grey ncdence [J]. Chnese Journal of Management Scence, 2008, 2-3. [5]. Yng Zhang, Yanfang Feng. FAHP Evaluaton on General Qualty of Undergraduate [J]. Journal of Wuhan Unversty of Technology (Socal Scences Edton), 2007, (5): [6]. Xnhua. Three departments ssued advce to promote PV technology progress and ndustral upgradng [EB/OL]. [7]. Fe Tan. Study on Sustanable and Healthy Strategc Development of Chnese New Energy Industry [J]. Prces Monthly, 2015, (6):