Study on Integrated Simulation Model of Economic, Energy and Environment Safety System under the low-carbon policy in Beijing

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1 Internatonal Envronmental Modellng and Software Socety (EMSs) 2010 Internatonal Congress on Envronmental Modellng and Software Modellng for Envronment s Sake, Ffth Bennal Meetng, Ottawa, Canada Davd A. Swayne, Wanhong Yang, A. A. Vonov, A. Rzzol, T. Flatova (Eds.) Study on Integrated Smulaton Model of Economc, Energy and Envronment Safety System under the low-carbon polcy n Bejng LIU Dacheng 1, Yang Xaoou 1, TAN Xanchun 2, WU Ruhao 1, WANG L 3 1 Department of IE, Tsnghua Unv., Bejng, , P.R. Chna, ludac@tsnghua.edu.cn 2 Insttute of Polcy and Management, Chnese Academy of Scence, Bejng, , PRC 3 Bejng Research Center of Urban System Engneerng, Bejng, , P.R. Chna Abstract: In the near future, energy conservaton and polluton reducton became two of the most sgnfcant factors n economc development and socal crculate. For analyzng the ssue, several models were appled nvolvng the felds of mathematcal optmzaton, economcs theory, dynamcs model and ndustral management. Specfcally, they are MARKAL model, Input-Output model, LEAP model and Systemc Dynamcs model. In the paper, a collaboratve dstrbuted database and an ntegrated smulaton were developed for the Economcs-Energy-Envronment (3E) system, especally four models were frstly synthesze n a unque way whch acheve securtes economcally, envronmentally, as well as n a sense of energy source. The ntegrated matrx nherts the advantages of all methodologes mentoned above. At last, a flawless ntegraton of the 3E-Safety system was presented and appled n a practcal manner n the case of low-carbon development. Keywords: 3E, Cty Securty, Low-carbon, Integrated Smulaton. 1. INTRODUCTION Durng the past 30 years, Chna experences the quckly economc growth n the world for ts annual average GDP growth of 9.6%. Meanwhle, what accompaned the most dazzlng economc growth s the sharp standard coal consumpton ncrease from 539 mllon tons n 1979 up to 3.1 bllon tons by More serously, the emsson of the greenhouse gas also presents surprsng growth. In order to handle the severe challenge from the global clmate change, Chna promsed stately n Copenhagen Summt that Chna would cut ts CO2 emsson per unt of GDP by 40-45% by 2020, compared wth the level n As the captal of Chna and the poltcal, economc and cultural center, t shall be ts oblgatory duty for Bejng to become forerunner to contrbute the promse for the government of Chna. On the base of the practcal stuaton of Bejng, the paper utlzed the relevant research result, domestc and nternatonal, to ntroduce a set of 3Es comprehensve ntegraton model for the purpose to provde the scentfc foundaton for the formaton of the economy, energy and envronment polces whch would be consdered to boost the low-carbon economy. The model consdered the current stuaton of Bejng statstc system and statstc data, and generally covered the three systems of economy, energy and envronment. More valuable addton s that the model nnovatvely took nto account an mportant factor, the urban securty of Bejng as a captal. 2. MODELS OF ECONOMIC-ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT (3E) SYSTEM Based on current economy-energy-envronment system, the paper focuses on the method of measurng and calculatng the nteracton level among the three systems wth the

2 purpose to make the socal development system keep balanced and coordnatve n the felds of economy, energy and envronment, whch was shown by Deng et al. [2006]. 2.1 Panorama of 3E system There were many mature economy-energy-envronment models. Each of the models has ts ndvdual research prorty and approach. However, all the 3E models can be dvded nto two modes, top-down and bottom-up, whch was shown by Economy [1978]. The top-down analyss method consders the macro economy and uses the economcs model wheren the energy prce and economy elastcty are the man economc ndcator to present the relatonshp between energy consumpton and energy producton. The top-down analyss method s manly applcable to the macro economy analyss and the research on energy polcy makng. However, t cannot control the mpact of technology progress on the economy. The CGE model based on General Equlbrum Theory and the Input-Output model belong to the top-down mode. The bottom-up analyss method presents the engneerng technque model to make a detaled descrpton and smulaton to the technque used for energy consumpton and energy producton, and manly ams at energy consumpton and producton mode for supply-demand forecast and envronment mpact analyss, whch was shown by Toshhko [2004]. However, the method overestmates technology progress effect. The bottom-up model has two branches n terms of research, whch was shown by We [2005]: The frst s based on energy supply and converson to analyze the ntroduced effcent energy technque and ts effect. The typcal models nclude MARKAL model developed by the domnant Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) and EFOM model developed by EU; The second s that analyzes and calculates n detal the change at energy demand and consumpton caused by the human actvtes. The typcal models nclude MEDEE model developed by France and LEAP model developed by Stockholm Envronment Insttute. In order to establsh the low-carbon emsson based 3E model, we shall consder economy growth, energy demand by each economc sector and termnal, and ther mpact on the envronment. We shall also pay attenton to energy technque, energy structure optmzaton and energy converson technque so as to reduce the pollutant emsson on the base of effectve cost control. Nether the top-down nor bottom-up model can meet the requrement of the complcated goal. In the 3E-S model ntroduced heren, we appled comprehensvely the Input-Output mode n the top-down analyss method and the LEAP model (energy demand and consumpton n attenton) and MARKAL model (energy technque n attenton) n the bottom-up analyss method to acheve the organc combnaton and mutual correcton of the varous focuses respectvely stressed by the models so as to form complex gant system whch could effectvely mtate and smulate the actual energy system and then apply the method of the system dynamcs to consttute a smulaton model whch would be used to verfy the above result acheved by the optmzaton n terms of economy safety, energy safety and envronment safety. 2.2 Independent analyss models Input-Output Model(I/O model) 1936, Leonef frst rased hs I/O model, whch s stll consdered as one of the most effectve theores to solve the problem of balanced economc growth, whch was shown by Wllam [1980]. It could help workng out the chessboard type of nput-output statement and settng up the correspondng lnear algebrac equaton set to form an economc mathematcal model, whch could mtate the structure of the actual natonal economc system and the socal reproducton process, to analyze and confrm comprehensvely the complex relatonshp among all the sectors n the natonal economc system and the key reproducton proportonal relatonshp. In 2001, Le separated two man envronment protecton measures---resource recovery and polluton governance-from the tradtonal ndustral sector to form a vrtual envronment protecton ndustry---resource recovery sector and polluton governance sector. He utlzed the calculaton to get the actual data about resource consumpton,

3 pollutant emsson, resource recovery and polluton governance, and used the data to create a relatvely complete I/O statement about resource-energy-economy-envronment, and bult up the green I/O accountng method, whch fnally helped orgnatng an assessment method frame for resource-envronment-economy, whch was shown by Le [2001]. LEAP Model LEAP model s an econometrc model jontly developed by Stockholm Envronment Insttute and Tellus Insttute. The model follows the sequence of resource, transton and demand, to assess the energy demand and supply balance at certan regon. It could be used to desgn the energy consumpton mode aganst varous development stuatons on the base of the current energy demand of each sector and the forecast to the socal and economc development n the future years by dfferent polcy packages and technque selecton modes. The combnaton of varous development modes and ther comparson could provde the reference for the decson-makng about the regonal economc and energy development plannng. Usually, LEAP s called as termnal energy consumpton model, whch was shown by Joost [2004], and manly focuses on the achevement of the balance n demand and resource transton by the calculaton. Moreover, LEAP utlzed the exstng energy technque and envronment database to analyze the balance program n terms of cost and pollutant. So, the LEAP model s sutable to be appled for scenaro analyss. It s feasble to depend on varous polces to draft some scenes and then analyze the advantage and shortcomng of them. Its shortcomng s unable to be used for optmzaton. MARKAL Model MARKAL (Market Allocaton) model s an energy system analyss tool based on mult-objectve lnear plannng method. In 1976, Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) developed MARKAL model and promoted many natons. MARKAL s a partal equlbrum model manly composed of energy database and lnear plannng software. It pays great attenton to the energy technque, uses 21 knds of constrant equatons to assure supply-demand balance and economc growth, and sets up the objectve functon to get an energy program whch am to lowest cost or mnmum pollutant emsson, able to be used for optmzaton and solvng, whch was shown by Evaso [2004] and Barry [2003].. System Dynamc Model (SD model) The System Dynamcs s a system smulaton method developed by Jay Forrester W. wth MIT n 1956, applcable to the modelng and smulatng to a complex system. On the base of the research on the structure model of the system, t analyzes the cause-and-effect relatonshp among the factors nsde the system and depends on the computer smulaton to quanttatvely analyze the structure of the nformaton feedback system and the dynamc relaton between functon and behavour, whch was shown by Wang [1994]. The SD s characterzed n that t could depend on the nherent mechansm of a large system to smulate t. Thus, once the model s calbrated, t could be used to rghtly forecast the system state. However, ts shortcomng s that the nput data necessary for the operaton of SD model all need external generaton. 3. ECONOMIC-ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT-SAFETY (3E-S) MODEL On the base of I/O model, LEAP model, MARKAL model and SD model, the paper developed a set of 3E-S comprehensve ntegraton model, as shown as Fgure 1, whch fully consdered the current stuaton of Bejng data and generally covered the three systems of economy, energy and envronment. More valuable s that the model nnovatvely takes nto account an mportant factor, the securty of Bejng as a captal. The 3E-S model s composed of four relatvely ndependent modules among whch the data are exchanged by the openng nterface. 3.1 Economy development and energy demand forecast module (I/O model) The economy development and energy demand forecast module conssts of two sectons. One s an economy development forecast and ndustry structure optmzaton module, whch uses the Bejng I/O data of years to buld up the forecast data sequence and model to predct the future trend of the economy development, and optmzes the ndustry

4 structure, and promotes each sector under the natonal economy system for proportonal and coordnatve development; Another s a termnal energy demand forecast module whch, based on economy forecast and ndustry optmzaton structure analyss and termnal demand technque database, reles on the nput-output analyss to get the termnal energy consumpton forecast data of Bejng n terms of ndustry and energy. The man formula lsted as follows: 1 1 Fgure 1. Structure of 3E-S model 1 2 ( L) (0) Y Y [ A ( I 1) 1][ A ( I 2 ) 2 ]...[ A ( I L ) L ] (1) ( L) Wheren, Y means random output able to be used for renvestment at L th year, ts n value subject to R ={X: X means 1 n non-negatve vector}; A ( t ) ( ), t 1 means random consumpton coeffcent matrx of t th ( t) year; ( ), t 1 means consumpton coeffcent matrx of t th year. The research on ndustry structure s manly based on drect consumpton coeffcent, complete consumpton coeffcent, nducton coeffcent, mpact coeffcent, dstrbuton coeffcent, fnally-adopted structure coeffcent and added-value proporton coeffcent, etc. For the example of mpact coeffcent, t s used to analyze the mpact and conformance of the demand change at certan sector on and wth the producton demand of each sector under the natonal economy system. The calculaton formula lsted as follows: n bj j 1 E, 1,2,..., n n n 1 b n j 1 j 1 (2) Wheren, n b means the sum of th n n row n the Leoteff nvertble matrx; j 1 n b j j 1 1 j 1 means the average of the sum of all the rows n the Leoteff nvertble matrx. The termnal energy demand forecast module manly ntroduces the energy consumpton coeffcent matrx n terms of sector and energy consumpton and uses the nput-output data and apples the followng man formula to get: 1 E e( I ˆ A Y (3) - ) Wheren, E - s the complete consumpton coeffcent of energy n th sector; e means drect energy consumpton coeffcent matrx; A means I/O drect consumpton 1 L

5 coeffcent matrx; Y means the selecton matrx whch corresponds to the secton under attenton; ˆ means the degree of self suffcency of the local cty; I means unt matrx. 3.2 Energy development plannng module (LEAP model) The energy development plannng module holds the purpose to utlze the mert that the LEAP model s good at scenaro analyss to make a comparson analyss to the dfferent polces n order to select the best polcy whch could acheve a ratonal balance between cost control and envronment beneft. The model n total presets 11 scenes whch belong to four types, e.g. polluton control enhancement scene and powerful new energy development, etc. The calculaton based on the LEAP model could the energy development plannng for supply-demand balance aganst varous polcy packages. The comprehensve comparson between polcy cost and polcy envronment beneft from the plannng would acheve an optmal balance pont. The steps for the above course are shown as Fgure Economc development and energy demand forecast module Demand stuaton Resource stuaton 2. Polcy target desgnaton Socal and economc background Routne development target Supernormal development target Scene target 1 Scene target 2 Scene target n No 3. LEAP model calculaton Techncal cost parameter Technque & envronment mpact parameter Energy and envronment database Energy development plannng (n sets) Polcy envronment beneft Polcy cost 4. Comprehensve comparson YES Optmal energy development plannng Fgure 2. Flow chart about formulaton of energy development plannng 3.3 Energy supply optmzaton module (MARKAL model) The plannng target of Bejng based on the MARKAL model s to maxmze the comprehensve envronment beneft so as to realze the low-carbon target of Bejng. The constrant equaton manly ncludes the followng fve: Gross restrcton of prmary energy supply (the gross of the prmary energy supply shall not be more than the resource nput level): X SUP ; Energy carrer balance across each lnk (the energy converson amount n each lnk shall be at least equal to the consumpton of next lnk): EX X 1 0 ; Termnal energy demand balance (the termnal energy supply shall be at least equal to the demand): EX 2 2 DEM; Technology capacty lmt and producton operatng lmt (The energy yeld shall not be beyond the technology capacty or producton operatng lmt ): EX CAP; Total cost restrcton (The total cost shall be less than the product of the cost acheved from the optmal program whch s based on the energy development plannng module wth the allowance coeffcent): C C. X M

6 Wheren, X means unknown energy flux vector of all the lnks present at the flow from prmary energy product to termnal energy demand,.e. soluton of plannng ssue; C means the cost coeffcent matrx of all the known lnks; E means the energy converson effcency matrx; SUP means energy resource vector; DEM means termnal energy demand vector; CAP means technology capacty vector. Fgure 3 shows the RES (Reference Energy System) for the economy, energy and envronment system of Bejng formulated n accordance wth the model. Fgure 3. RES network structure of Bejng 3E system 3.4 Economy, energy and envronment safety ndex verfcaton module (SD model) In ths module, on the base of the comprehensve consderaton to the subsystems n terms of energy, economy, populaton, scence & technology and envronment, etc., the system dynamcs method s used to consttute a SD smulaton model for the Bejng 3E system. And then nput the parameters of economy, energy and envronment obtaned by the above three modules nto the SD model and use the operatng smulaton model to observe the reach wheren the economy safety ndex, energy safety ndex and envronment safety ndex of Bejng changes so as to judge the safety of the program. Fgure 4 shows SD smulaton model frame of Bejng 3E system. Then the safety ndex of the economy, energy, envronment n Bejng can be calculated as follows. Economy safety ndex: The frst s resource safety ndex. The resource ncludes raw materal, energy, human resource, captal and technque, etc. The resource safety ndex means the rato of the consumpton of certan resource to t supply. When the rato s more than certan threshold value, t would be concluded unsafe. The second s ndustry compettveness ndex. If the man ndustres of one cty lose ts competton force, the cty would also face very hgh economy safety rsk. Energy safety ndex: It means the rato of the energy consumpton to the energy supply. When the rato s more than certan threshold value, t would be concluded unsafe. The energy consumpton shall consder producton and lfe consumpton related to energy structure, energy utlzaton technque level and effcency. The energy supply shall consder energy supply technque level, energy reserve rato, rato of dependence (degree of self suffcency of energy). Envronment safety means the qualty, functon and adjustment capablty of the envronment factors s wthn the acceptable and recoverable range of the envronment

7 tself. Envronment safety coeffcent=pollutant emsson /envronment capacty. The larger the value s, the more unsafe the envronment would be. The envronment capacty means the top lmt of the pollutant emtted that the envronment could bear. It could be replaced wth the relevant standard formulated by the envronment admnstraton. Fgure 4. SD smulaton model frame of Bejng 3E system 4. SIMULATION INTEGRATION OF 3E-S MODEL On the base of 3E-S model prncple, we developed the dstrbuted vsual demonstraton platform---3e-s RIMSP (Remote Integrated Mult-smulaton System Platform), whch ntegrates data analyss, system smulaton and decson-makng mtaton, to show the economy, energy and envronment safety of the captal Bejng. Fgure 5 shows the system nfrastructure. The platform could functon as follows: (1) Integraton of resource data wth decson-makng data By through database desgn, the data, ncludng economy parameter, energy supply, energy technque and envronment parameter, are collected nto the SQL Server database to acheve the resource data sharng and assure the data consstency; n addton, the secondary data or result data formed durng the model operatng,.e. decson-makng data, are also collected nto the SQL Server database for unform management and data transfer and sharng among the modules. (2) Integraton of servce flow The 3E-S RIMSP platform uses the J2EE nfrastructure n the aspect of technque, wheren the core calculaton secton of the four modules are mplemented respectvely by varous softwares: The economy development and energy demand forecast module s drectly by Java; the energy development plannng module uses the LEAP software to complete the core calculaton; the energy supply optmzaton module uses log software to complete the lnear plannng calculaton; the safety ndex verfcaton module uses the Vensm software to develop the SD model. The development utlzes the Java nterface of the above softwares to acheve successfully the ntegraton of the servce flow. (3) Integraton of user nterface The 3E-S RIMSP platform uses the B/S structure mode to form a multple-layer system structure based on WEB, mddleware and large database. The user n the LAN

8 could use the browser to operate the 3E-S RIMSP smulaton platform. The unfed manmachne nterface ntegrates data management, command nput, operatng status show and result analyss to acheve callng the four modules n the 3E-S model. Fgure 5. System nfrastructure of Bejng 3E-S RIMSP platform 5. CONCLUSION The Bejng 3E-S model ntegrates nto several typcal models of mutually supplementary functon to relatvely completely acheve the smulaton to the Bejng economy, energy and envronment system. Meanwhle, t ntally ntroduces the safety ndex verfcaton module to obtan the ablty to launch the safety evaluaton to the optmzaton program rased by the model and fnally complete the computer mplementaton to the model and develop the 3E-S RIMSP ntegral smulaton platform. The Bejng 3E-S model presents the new energy strategy, whch ncludng energy supply structure, converson technology, and low-carbon emsson economc development. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research has been supported by the Natonal Natural Scence foundaton of Chna ( ). REFERENCES Barry Naughten. Economc assessment of combned cycle gas turbnes n Australa some fffects of mcroeconomc reform and techno logcal change [J]. Energy Polcy, 2003, 31(3): Deng Yuyong, Du Mnghua, Le Zhongmn. The Overvew of energy-economcsenvronment (3E) model [J]. Gansu Socal Scences, 2006, 3: Economcs and statstcs dvson department of energy. Energy Forecastng Methodology[Z] Evaso Lavagno. Explorng Energy Technology Perspectves, man.html [EB]. 2004, 09. Joost Steur. The Long - range Energy Alternatves Plannng model (LEAP) and Wood Energy Plannng, [EB], 2004, 09. Le Mng. Analyss of Chnese nput output chart of resource energy economcs envronment system and green taxaton accountng [J]. Southeast Academc Research, 2001, (4): Toshhko Nakata. Energy-economc models and the envronment [J]. Progress n Energy and Combuston Scence, 2004, 30 (4): Wang Qfan. System Dynamcs [M]. Bejng: Tsnghua Unversty Press, 1994.

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