Necessity and potential of afforestation, forest protection and restoration

Transcription

1 Necessity and potential of afforestation, forest protection and restoration Hosny El-Lakany, UBC, Canada and Luke Bailey, Rights and Resources Initiative 9/25/2010 1

2 Based on Gregersen, El Lakany, Bailey and White (forthcoming): Afforestation, Reforestation & Restoration of Degraded Lands (ARRDL) as a necessary complement to REDD: Lessons for REDD from countries adding net forest area. 9/25/2010 2

3 Countries adding net forest area Major resources and effort have been committed to REDD, mainly for countries with high rates of net deforestation. Meanwhile, some 82 countries, each with 200,000ha. or more of forest, increased or maintained their forest area over the period. (and most likely continue through 2010) They now contain more than half the remaining forest area in the World. 9/25/2010 3

4 Countries adding net forest area cont d: Most of these countries have implemented significant programs of afforestation, reforestation and restoration of degraded lands (ARDDL). It is no coincidence that 32 out of the 37 million ha. of forest plantation area added during the period are in the 82 countries. In addition they have reduced deforestation, by establishing major areas of protection forest and forest reserves, banning logging in some areas, etc. 9/25/2010 4

5 Purposes of the Presentation 1: Explore what the net forest adding countries have done differently to start adding instead of losing forest. 2: Draw out lessons for countries that still are net deforesters. 3: Explore how ARRDL has become a major and necessary part of the forestry programs in forest adding countries; and discuss why it is a necessary complement to REDD activities. 9/25/2010 5

6 Forest Transition Why? How? Most countries adding net forest area now were net deforesters at one time. Why did they change and start adding net forest area? Common theories in the literature are that it occurs when: 1. Economic development takes place 2. Scarcity of wood, rising prices and forest related environmental disasters push governments to do something to protect and expand forests. 9/25/2010 6

7 1. Economic development. Few countries with per capita income over $5,000 are still net deforesters As incomes rise there is less dependence on the local forests for everyday living; As economic development occurs, governance tends to improve, which supports further development. 9/25/2010 7

8 1. Economic development (cont.) Rural populations tend to decrease and agriculture becomes more efficient. Less new land is needed to feed growing populations. Environmental services of forests become more important and countries protect large areas of forest for wildlife, watershed services, recreation, etc. Examples: most of Europe, North America, and countries in other regions 9/25/2010 8

9 2. Increasing forest and wood scarcity As forests dwindle, wood prices rise Physical shortages arise, causing social problems (e.g., due to lack of fuelwood or wood for coffins) More frequent forest related environmental disasters occur Governments at the highest level get concerned and act to save remaining forests and establish new ones. In general one or both of these reasons behind forest transition economic development and increasing scarcity - fit the countries we looked at. 9/25/2010 9

10 3 Cases: Countries that have turned from net forest loss to net forest gain Turning points in: Rep. of Korea: late sixties early seventies China: late seventies Vietnam: early nineties 9/25/

11 Rep. of Korea How? Forest related environmental disasters and absolute scarcity of wood in rural areas and leading to crisis situation gave incentive for government, from the President on down, to start a major forestry program in the sixties, which grew in the seventies (First Forest Plan and Forest Rehabilitation Program in 1973). 9/25/

12 Korea cont d: How? A broad-based approach: the Saemaul Undong gaining the interest and trust of communities Getting the legal basis right: including key tenure reform provisions. Getting the logistics right: Top-down/bottom-up organizational structure. Necessary backstopping : Research + extension Emphasis on short-term gains in income and livelihoods. 9/25/

13 China How? 1. Forest related environmental disasters convinced government right from top down that major forest programs were needed 2. Massive government investment in ARRDL activities (~1 billion US$/year for plantations alone) 3. Shift from collective to household tenure (peasants began planting trees on their own) shifts still in progress. 9/25/

14 China cont d: How 1. logging bans for natural forests; increased imports of wood 2. Rapid economic growth in coastal, urban areas and intensification of agriculture decreased pressure on forest land 3. Forests went from net emitters of C in the seventies to net sequesterers in the nineties and beyond. 9/25/

15 Vietnam How? Massive investment in ARRDL activities Shifted tenure and forest management to communities and households (on-going) Ban on logging in 60% of natural forests Reliance on plantations and increased imports for growing forest product sector However, despite adding net forest area, loss of natural forest still proceeding and forest degradation is a continuing problem. Many problems and issues still to be resolved, as admitted by the government itself 9/25/

16 Overall Lessons for REDD Need to Consider global context in planning (e.g., implications in terms of exporting deforestation ) Most net forest adders were net deforesters in the past: it is possible to move from one to the other rather quickly, if there is strong country support. A two-pronged approach is needed: Better protection of existing forests, e.g., logging bans; Protected areas; better discovery of infractions and better enforcement; Improved protection against fire, disease and insect problems Implement aggressive ARRDL programs (including agroforestry) 9/25/

17 Lessons for REDD cont d: Improve forest governance with focus on: enforcing laws on illegal logging and corruption Forest tenure reforms that involved devolution of secure rights and responsibilities to local people and communities. Develop strong, fair and responsive govt. support from the top on down to the local level, with good communication between layers and laterally between government and private and communal groups. Accountability is essential 9/25/

18 ARRDL AS A NECESSARY COMPLEMENT TO REDD ARRDL has been a major component of forest programs in net forest adding countries and in some of the net deforesting countries. ARRDL activities are by implication part of the + in REDD+. However, discussion and agreement on what is included is lacking. ARRDL should be given equal priority to REDD, since eventually it will be needed to avoid leakage from REDD programs. 9/25/

19 Responding to Arguments against including ARRDL in an overall forest carbon program 1. Potential gains in carbon storage from ARRDL are small on a per hectare basis compared to the carbon loss avoided from REDD. Response: But total area of already degraded forest and other land ready for restoration and afforestation/reforestation estimated to be more than a billion hectares. (GPFLR, 2009) 9/25/

20 Arguments cont d 2. Political appeal of saving large areas of old growth forest is greater than appeal of reforesting or restoring cut-over, degraded land, or afforesting unused and abandoned farm lands. Response: However, Antipathy towards the idea of being paid not to do something seems deeply ingrained in the human psyche. 9/25/

21 Arguments cont d: 3. Difficult to keep down the transactions costs / unit of carbon sequestered in ARRDL activities when working with many smallholders that don t produce very large carbon benefits per capita. Response: While REDD programs are still in the proof of concept stage, ARRDL programs have been around for a long time and can be instituted for rural poor on a large scale with acceptable transactions costs as has been shown in many countries. REDD will have the same or worse transactions cost problems working with smallholders 9/25/

22 Arguments cont d: 4. If plantations are allowed in a REDD+ scheme, there is the danger that large corporations will deforest and then plant commercial tree crops and receive payments for it. Response: It will be easy to set up appropriate rules to ensure that this type of behavior is excluded from consideration in such ARRDL programs. 9/25/

23 Arguments for ARRDL ARRDL programs don t have same leakage and additionality problems that confront REDD. Incentives for commercial businesses are the market, not payments for not doing something. ARRDL can help reduce vulnerability to climaterelated catastrophes and adapt to climate change If planned appropriately, smallholders and forest communities also will have market and livelihood based economic incentives. (MDG#1) 9/25/

24 Conclusions: ARRDL is a necessary complement to REDD, if wood consumption continues to grow. 1. Trying to reduce wood consumption is both not desirable nor is it likely possible 2. Evidence from countries that have turned net forest adders over the past 40 years indicate that they merely are exporting some of their deforestation, i.e., leakage is occurring. 3. Only aggressive ARRDL programs can effectively lead to successful REDD over longer term. 9/25/

25 Conclusions cont d Both REDD and ARRDL need to be looked at in the context of global markets for wood and for other products (e.g., soy, oil palm, cattle) that are the main reason for global deforestation today A major co-benefit from aggressively expanding ARRDL programs along with small scale forest enterprise development can be a contribution to meeting Millennium Development Goal #1, poverty reduction. Success of both REDD and ARRDL programs, depends on how well countries improve governance, land tenure structures and rights of forest dwellers. 9/25/

26 Conclusions cont d: Successful outcomes have resulted where local people are given more secure, long term rights to land and its outputs, through tenure reform and assignment of secure and self-governed rights for use of public lands 9/25/

27 Bottom Line: ARRDL programs will continue to grow as they have in the past, regardless of whether or not the global community decides to embrace them within the context of a new REDD+ program. The point is that forest carbon resources could stimulate more aggressive ARRDL programs that could help ensure more successful REDD programs over the longer run. In fact, particularly in terms of preventing long term leakage, ARRDL is a necessary complement to REDD (but not a substitute). 9/25/

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