Lao PDR Workshop on National REDD+ Accounting Frameworks WWF-Laos REDD+ projects 7 August 2013

Transcription

1 Lao PDR Workshop on National REDD+ Accounting Frameworks WWF-Laos REDD+ projects 7 August 2013 Credit: Paul Chatterton Presented by: Somphone Bouasavanh WWF-Laos Country Director Somphone.bouasavanh@wwfgreatermekong.org Prepared by: Kathryn Michie Regional Forest Carbon Coordinator Kathryn.Michie@wwfgreatermekong.org

2 WWF-Laos REDD+ Projects Securing Sustainble Financing for Xe Pian NPA through REDD+ The Avoidance of deforestation and forest degradation in the border area of southern Laos and central Vietnam for the long-term preservation of carbon sinks and biodiversity (CarBi) project

3 Securing Sustainble Financing for Xe Pian NPA through REDD+

4 WWF-Laos is working with OBf (Austrian Forest Authority), WWF- Austria and Lao government partners to develop a Project Document (PD) for the Voluntary Carbon Market Using VM0015 following the technical requirements set out in this methodology OBf is leading the more technical elements of the PD development process.

5 Reference Levels / Baselines VM0015 allows for three different options to project future deforestation: Historical average approach Time function approach Modeling approach Due to the relatively low levels of historic deforestation in Xe Pian NPA, but in anticipation of increasing rates, the Modeling approach has been adopted for this project.

6 Modelling the baseline Done by way of modelling the location of deforestation risk and magnitude of deforestation, based on historical analysis of deforestation agent s behaviour and drivers Two main agents of deforestation identified: Subsistence farmers Cash crop farmers Extensive community consultations conducted in project area and reference region in order to gather data to build these models.

7 Conceptual models Agent group 1: Subsistence farmers ÖSTERREICHISCHE BUNDESFORSTE AG 7

8 Conceptual models Agent group 2: Cash crop farmers ÖSTERREICHISCHE BUNDESFORSTE AG 8

9 Modelling the baseline - challenges How to account for potential deforestation caused by agents beyond subsistence farmers and cash crop farmers? Data collection through these community consultations very resource intensive Resulting data quality has been variable Availability of land-use planning data from the local level varies

10 MRV Again, guided by the requirements of VM0015. Initial work based on analysis of Landsat-7 data plus extensive forest plots. Need to agree system for ongoing monitoring, reporting and verification. Remote sensing using Landsat-7 + Groundtruthing (60 Permanent Sample Plots over all Forest Classes)

11 Results of initial analysis - Map of Forest types Multilayered Dense Forest Dense/Medium Forest Open Forest Medium/Dense Dipterocarpus Open Dipterocarpus Bamboo (non-forest) CONSULTING CONSULTING 11

12 T/ha Results of initial analysis Map of Forest carbon density 140 Carbon Density per Forest Type Multilayered Forest Open Forest Open Dipterocarpus CONSULTING CONSULTING 12

13 Leakage As per guidance in VM0015, the project will need to monitor changes in deforestation in the leakage belt Any increase in deforestation in the leakage belt will need to be subtracted from any credits generated by the project.

14 Leakage belt

15 Leakage The identified agents of deforestation (subsistence farmers and cash crop farmers) are considered local, with limited mobility to displace emissions by more than a few kilometers Management of leakage was one of the limitations to including other agents of deforestation (eg. concession owners; infrastructure developers) in the model. Addressing the underlying drivers of deforestation and providing access to alternative livelihoods for local people will be important in managing leakage.

16 Non-permanence and credit buffers In line with the VCS AFOLU Non-Permanence Risk Tool, the necessary number of credits will be deposited into the Pooled Buffer Account to cover non-permanence related project risks. Key permanence risks for Xe Pian include: Fire risk Political risk Infrastructure expansion Border security issues Ensuring effective community engagement and buy-in

17 Above and belowground tree biomass only. Carbon pools

18 Crediting mechanisms and incentive distribution The details on these issues still need to be agreed, but key issues we are considering include: Limited revenue available (estimated around $75,000 / year) Which communities should participate? (Likely our ten target communities under the broader Xe Pian project) How can non-target communities participate in and benefit from the project? Which government agencies / levels need to be involved?

19 Key issues continued: Crediting mechanisms and incentive distribution How to ensure that there is enough revenue available to fund conservation activities that actually reduce deforestation? How to ensure that enough revenue reaches the communities to create meaningful incentives? Transaction costs of benefit distribution Ensuring transparency How should benefits be distributed within communities? Cash versus in-kind benefits Household level versus community level

20 Xe Pian NPA next steps VCS PD to be completed by Dec 2013 Validation, verification processes Seek CCBA accreditation (timeline to be agreed)

21 THE ANNAMITES CARBON SINKS AND BIODIVERSITY (CarBi) PROJECT Avoidance of deforestation and forest degradation in the border area of southern Laos and central Vietnam for the long-term preservation of carbon sinks and biodiversity

22

23 CarBi Project Components 1. Improving Protected Area management in Laos and Vietnam 2. Natural forest restoration in the degraded forest corridors in Quang Nam and Thua Thien Hue provinces in Vietnam 3. Reducing illegal logging and control of trans-boundary timber and wildlife trade between Laos and Vietnam 4. Trans-boundary REDD pilot

24 REDD+ Feasibility Study Worked with consultants Forest Carbon to conduct a REDD+ feasibility for the CarBi project area Concluded that it is not financially feasible to invest in developing the CarBi domain as a REDD project for the voluntary carbon market Estimated potential revenue in Lao PDR: $157,372-$472,115 over 10 years Estimated potential revenue in Vietnam: $64,318-$192,954 over 10 years Transaction costs for developing one PDD: Around $165,500-$175,50 Note that this figure does not include other key costs such as the cost of continuing project activities; or opportunity costs

25 But why wasn t it feasible? The Voluntary Carbon Market only considers emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The other + parts of REDD+ (eg. Conservation of forest carbon stocks) are not included. Within the NPAs, including Xe Sap NPA, the historic deforestation rate was relatively low, thus the baseline scenario did not allow much scope for claiming credits from deforestation.

26 Table 23 Potential gross revenue estimates in USD for Xe Sap NPA applying three price scenarios for the potential REDD credits and accumulating credits into two sale periods. No. Year Cumulative Price Scenarios for VCU Yr. ERs Low Medium High (tco2e) $3 $6 $ ,088 $75,265 $150,529 $225, ,457 $157,372 $314,743 $472,115

27 Table 25 Approximate transaction costs to develop a PDD to be able to sell carbon credits compliant with the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). Activity Description Costs Estimate (USD) VCS compliant biomass survey (sample error +/-10%) 35,000 45,000 Writing of full VCS PDD using new VCS/CCBA template 30,000 VCS validation 15,000 Annual monitoring using LANDSAT & Rapid Eye imagery (incl. only GIS/RS analysis) a. 32,000 Reporting 10,000 VCS verification 25,000 Registry and credit issuance fees 2,500 Technical support services/interaction with VCS audit body before/during validation & verification 16,000 TOTAL $165, ,500

28 VCS Methodologies considered No. VCS Description Criteria and/or Constraints VM0006 TGC developed for Oddar Melanchoy Cambodian project Reference region needs to have greater than 0.5% annual deforestation rate in historic period. VM0007 Modular Methodology Credits from illegal logging can t be claimed. VM0009 Wildlife Works Degradation must lead from forest to non-forest status VM0015 BioCarbon Fund Credits from degradation can t be claimed.

29 But why wasn t it feasible? Of the four methodologies considered, only VM0015 Methodology for Avoided Unplanned Deforestation was suitable for the project area. However, this methodology does not allow for inclusion of forest degradation In Laos, forest degradation has been estimated to cause up to 50% of forest-based emissions, therefore opportunity for credits has been reduced significantly. However, even if degradation was included, the ability to accurately measure, monitor, report and verify changes in degradation is limited without investment in expensive remote sensing data and extensive field campaigns.

30 What next? The CarBi project will restructure the REDD component, with a focus on accessing sustainable financing for the CarBi Project. This proposal includes: Supporting PFES implementation in Vietnam, also to complement community based forest restoration activities in pursuance of sustainability beyond project end Exploring opportunities for PFES in Laos, and to build institutional capacity REDD+ Capacity building to ensure that project counterparts are well-placed to take advantage of future REDD+ opportunities in emerging markets, such as a potential compliance market; bilateral agreements or performance-based payments from donors.

31 Thank you! Presented by: Somphone Bouasavanh WWF-Laos Country Director Prepared by: Kathryn Michie Regional Forest Carbon Coordinator