Implications of Climate Change for FFH- Forest Habitat Types

Transcription

1 Photo: Shatsk National Park Implications of Climate Change for FFH- Forest Habitat Types - Examples from the Biosphere Reserve Vessertal- Thuringian Forest within the framework of the EU-Project HABIT-CHANGE - Nils Feske, Nico Frischbier, Ingolf Profft Service- and Competence-Centre of ThüringenForst (SuK) Gotha/Germany nico.frischbier@forst.thueringen.de Climate Change and Regional Response, Dresden 2013, , Session 1c Photo: author 2.HABIT-CHANGE Partner Meeting This project is implemented through the CENTRAL Lake Neusiedl / Fertö-Hánsag National Park, Illmitz EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

2 2 Vulnerability of forest ecosystems particularly sensitive to CC, because the long life-span of trees does not allow rapid adaptation to environmental changes (LINDNER et al., 2010) influences through the potential change of temperature and precipitation regimes & disturbances varies with tree species & composition, climate & change rates and always in accordance with soil conditions (soil type, rooting capability, water capacity)

3 3 State of work Habitat type species and ecosystem presence, distribution, composition & productivity by climate envelope models, GAM and GLM statistics focus on impact-response relations Extract of the vulnerability assessment by Harley (2011). 2050s 2050s 2080s vulnerability 2080s Bog woodland (91D0) Acidophilous Picea forest of the montane to alpine levels Vaccinio-Piceetae (9410) A1F B1 A1F B1 High Moderate Very high High Moderate Moderate Very high High

4 4 State of work Habitat type classified sensitivity with respect to pressures, regenerability, spatial distribution, invasion of alien species, ground water dependency & conservation status. Extract of the sensitivity assessment by Petermann et al. (2007). sensitivity Luzulo-Fagetum beech forests (9110) Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests (9130) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines (9180) Bog woodland (91D0) Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0) Pannonic woods with Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus (91G0) Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (9410) [Low-Moderate-High] Moderate Moderate High (uncompleted assessment, nevertheless already) High High Low High

5 5 State of work Habitat type classified sensitivity with respect to pressures, regenerability, spatial distribution, invasion of alien species, ground water dependency & conservation status. Extract of the sensitivity assessment by Petermann et al. (2007). sensitivity Luzulo-Fagetum beech forests (9110) Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests (9130) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines (9180) Bog woodland (91D0) Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0) Pannonic woods with Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus (91G0) Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (9410) [Low-Moderate-High] Moderate Moderate High (uncompleted assessment, nevertheless already) High High Low High

6 6 The Biosphere Reserve Vessertal- Thuringian Forest (BRV)

7 7 The Biosphere Reserve Vessertal- Thuringian Forest (BRV)

8 8 The Biosphere Reserve Vessertal- Thuringian Forest (BRV) Habitat type Description Total area [ha] Number of habitats Conservation status A B C 9110 Luzulo-Fagetum beech forest (-) Asperulo-Fagetum beech forest (-) * Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines (-) 91D0* Bog woodlands (-) 5 (-) 91E0* Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae) 9410 Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea) (-) 6 10

9 9 Climate change (past & future) via literature review some studies for Thuringia (REKLI, REWA) some downscaled projections from GCM-ECHAM5 for Germany (WETTREG, REMO, CLM, STAR) some important descriptions in papers via database & map generator for central germany (IDP) via own forest specific calculation and regionalisation of climate parameters and their changes

10 10 Climate change (past & future) Temperature + 0,4 C 4,5-7,5 C + 1,0-1,5 C Precipitation mm Spring % - 5-0% Summer % % Autumn % % Global Radiation + 2-4% for annual & perennial plants we suggest, water-availability during vegetation period & length of real vegetation period are important & usefull to indicate CC-effects

11 11 Climatic water balance (kwb) & length of vegetation period (vp) precipitation minus evapotranspiration (pot, grass-norm) (during) vegetation period (days 10 C mean temp.) day-to-day calculated for available climatic stations

12 12 Climatic water balance (kwb) & length of vegetation period (vp) precipitation minus evapotranspiration (pot, grass-norm) (during) vegetation period (days 10 C mean temp.) day-to-day calculated for available climatic stations

13 13 Storm events & disturbances damages caused by winter storm kyrill 2007 in the BR-Vessertal: 567 ha deforested by storm 405 ha severely thinned above 5 % of the BR-area, that was covered by forests ( ha) was affected strongly in 2 days by one extreme weather event

14 14 CC-impacts on forest habitats and their conservation status climatically induced, largescale disturbances,, selective small-scale failure of individual tree species, structures or development phases,, gradual modification of site and environmental conditions.

15 15 Large-scale disturbances extensive loss of tree cover on larger areas, e.g. caused by storm, pests or fire result in: homogeneous habitat structure, failure and lack of several elements of structure, drastically changes of habitat specific species stock and composition, significant impairments of forest soils, water balance and vegetation.

16 16 Small-scale failures small and scattered damages in forest stands by species or structure specific (a)biotic damages, e.g. caused by insects, frost or heatwaves, lightning stroke result in: heterogeneous habitat structure and more frequent presence of several elements, usually easy to compensate selective failures of habitat specific species inventory, small-scale impairments, that will not be serious.

17 17 Gradual modification of site & climate, e.g. increasing temperature, increasing length of vegetation period, decreasing climatic water balance result in: at most marginally improved habitat structures, stand- & habitat specific changes of species & composition halting & small-scale but quickly compensated impairments.

18 18 Modelling shifts of tree species and plant associations by climatic water balance (cwb) & length of vegetation period (vp) Predicted survival probability for key species of Luzulo-Fagetum (9110), Asperulo-Fagetum (9130) and Vaccinio-Piceetea (9410). cwb

19 19 Gradual modification of site & climate, e.g. increasing temperature, increasing length of vegetation period, decreasing water balance result in: at most marginally improved habitat structures, stand- & habitat specific changes of species & composition: 91D0 & 91E0 when loose their functional connection to a flowing water body and are not longer regularly flooded (but not yet expected), 9410 on moderately moist mesotrophic, highly skeletal silicate soils if climate change favours European Beech and Silver Fir (towards 9110), 9110 on eutrophic stands if the milder climate increases the probability of occurrence for European Ash, Sycamore Maple and Elm (towards 9130). halting & small-scale but quickly compensated impairments.

20 20 Gradual modification of site & climate ecogram analyses & recommend. potential natural vegetation 2 master thesis vegetation surveys growth simulation Ellenberg values of temperature & moisture

21 21 Gradual modification of site & climate

22 22 Involving stakeholders in forest conversion strategies

23 23 Overall: habitat management is integrated in general forest inventory & management planing, near-natural & climate-plastic forest needs to be firmly supported by: good game management, modern concept for managing deadwood & biotope trees, thoughtful use of forest machinery, minimal other impairments (pollution, land use, fragmentation).

24 24 Thank you for your Attention!