Colorado Summertime Ozone Field Campaigns, Modeling and Data Analysis to support Decision Makers

Transcription

1 Colorado Summertime Ozone Field Campaigns, Modeling and Data Analysis to support Decision Makers Gabriele Pfister and David Edwards National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO

2 Projects in Collaboration with Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment Wildfire Season 2012 Exceedances of O 3 and PM2.5 Support exceedance demonstration and asess health impacts. FRAPPÉ and DISCOVER-AQ Major Field Study in Summer 2014 to address summertime air quality issues (O 3 ) in Colorado Front Range and provide the basis for informed decision making

3 Air Quality and Health Impacts from Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce, Jane Mitchell (CDPHE) Yang Liu, Matt Strickland (Emory University, GA) Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations & AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure Health Data provided by CDPHE Epidemiological Study on Fire Impact Document fire contribution on AQ and support exceedance demonstration Evaluate effectiveness of current wildfire advisories

4 Air Quality and Health Impacts from Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce, Jane Mitchell (CDPHE) Yang Liu, Matt Strickland (Emory University, GA) Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations & AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure CHALLENGES o Complex topography and flow patterns o Diverse sources (urban, agri, oil/gas, fires...) o Long-range transport o Fires: Highly variable & localized impacts o Highly accurate representation of fire impact needed o Limited set of observations for evaluation

5 Air Quality and Health Impacts from Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce, Jane Mitchell (CDPHE) Yang Liu, Matt Strickland (Emory University, GA) Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations & AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure OZONE EXCEEDANCE DEMONSTRATION Submit to EPA within 3 years of event (2015) June-July Ozone Events (identified by CDPHE) 6/17/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 7/4/2012 Rocky Mountain NP Denver Post

6 Fire Event 4 July 2012 Transport CO Tropospheric Column IASI MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth MOPITT

7 Fire Event 4 July 2012 Surface Ozone NCAR FINN/plumerise NASA QFED/plumerise QFED-GOESdiurnal*/plumerise NCAR FINN/surface NASA QFED/surface Without Fires WRF-Chem Simulations (12 & 4km) - Different Fire Emissions Inventories - Release fire surface versus online plumerise - Varying physics and meteorology nudging settings (not included here) * provided by Ed Hyer and colleagues

8 Fire Event 4 July 2012 Monitoring Sites Observed - Model (no fire) Model (fire no fire) Ozone Uncertainty in modeling specific fire events can be quite large Sensitivity studies needed to allow more robust conclusions Observed - Model (no fire) Model (fire no fire) PM2.5 Simulation that performs Best for specific event not necessarily show best overall performance Average over all Front Range Monitoring Sites Only model simulations with identical physics settings

9 Final Steps Exceedance Demonstration Compile Results and provide package to CDPHE Health Study Extended Health Analysis based on Modeling and Health Data for JJ Pursuing grant for in-depth analysis Preliminary results for 2012 June/July results: Explore relationship of PM 2.5 with ED visits and acute hospitalizations for asthma and determine whether wildfire smoke was a contributing factor. Increased PM 2.5 from fires resulted in an increase in asthma ED visits and acute hospitalizations. One of the first studies to look at concentrationresponse effects of PM 2.5 over a long-lasting fire period, and one of the first to cover such a large geographic area.

10 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE) NASA Airborne Science Program Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc., and many others! Objective: Characterize the factors driving summertime pollution High summertime ozone - non-attainment Complex topography and meteorology active photochemistry Diverse set of emission sources (urban, oil/gas, industrial, agriculture, biogenic, fires) Impact on downwind regions (central plains) Inflow from UT, WY, CA, and Asia

11 Quantify sources and constrain emission inventories Transportation, Oil and Gas Extraction (-> D. Kollonige 2:15pm, A. Thompson Wed 1:45pm), Power Generation, Agricultural activities, Vegetation Quantify the interaction and the overall impact of these emissions on local and regional AQ Air mass composition (organics, oxidants, NOx) Climate impact (Methane) Ozone and oxidant formation Formation and evolution of particulates Mountain induced recirculation accumulation of pollutants Quantify import of larger scale emissions and impact on local AQ UT and WY oil and gas extraction and power generation, California, Asian emissions, potential wildfires Quantify outflow of Front Range Pollution Relate Surface AQ to satellite measurements Improve Meteorological and AQ Models Provide scientific basis for informed decision making Strong Education and Outreach Component

12 Data will be finalized and made public by end of 2014 (Data Archive: FRAPPÉ and DISCOVER-AQ Science Team Meeting May 4-8, 2015 in Boulder, CO

13 Preliminary Findings Identified and characterized all emission sources in the Front Range and Western Slopes slope Northern Front Range / Greeley / DJ Basin dominated by oil & gas and agricultural signatures Denver / Boulder urban centers usually dominated by traffic and industrial emissions Ozone efficiently formed across the region In the absence of wildfires, Front Range air quality was mainly controlled by local emissions. Air Quality in Eastern Foothills and to the Continental Divide dominated by Front Range emissions, though there were instances of elevated regional ozone background Influence of Western Slope sources on Front Range were small Regularly observed transport of Front Range air pollution into mountains and adjacent valleys Outflow from Front Range into Eastern Plains can be significant Identified potential new / better suited monitoring locations

14 NCAR/NSF C Sampling the wider region Bonanza PP Craig & Haydn PP NO x Denver Metro

15 NASA/P3 Mix of Front Range Sources Metropolitan NOx Agriculture - Ammonia Oil & Gas - Ethane Aircraft Measurements WRF Tracer Area/Mobile WRF Tracer Agriculture WRF Tracer Oil/Gas Model Tracers

16 The Denver Cyclone Mixing the sources High Low What the model predicted (O&G) What the C-130 saw (Ethane)

17 Pollution gets into the Mountains 75 ppb C /12 6pm Surface Ozone at Mines Peak peaks in the evening!

18 Pollution gets into the Mountains C130- Ethane C130- NOx Aircraft Measurements Model Tracers WRF Oil & Gas Tracer WRF Area & Mobile Tracer Emissions from O&G and agriculture mostly separate from urban emissions in upslope events. Gray Shading - Topography

19 Stay tuned many more results to come Pictures: Paul Filmer (Aviation News), Samuel Hall (NCAR), FRAPPÉ Website Many of the findings and results (constrain on emissions, improvements of models, enhanced applicability of satellites for AQ, ) will also be relevant for other regions! NASA P3 15 Flights NASA B Flights NASA Falcon 10 Flights NCAR C Flights (2TF)

20 EXTRAS

21 Event 4 July 2012 Surface PM2.5 FINN/plumerise QFED/plumerise QFED-GOESdiurnal/plumerise FINN/surface QFED/surface Without Fires WRF-Chem Simulations (12 & 4km) - Fire Emissions Inventories (FINN/Smartfire, NASA/QFED, NASA QFED with GOES diurnal cycle - Release fire surface versus online plumerise - Varying physics and meteorology nudging settings (not included here)

22 Event 17 June 2012

23 Event 17 June 2012

24 3 July 2014 NO fires

25 Two major field campaigns FRAPPÉ funded by the State of Colorado and NSF and NASA s DISCOVER-AQ - merged to study summertime air quality in the Colorado Front Range. Together they characterized the diverse pollution sources, including emissions from transportation, power generation, oil and gas extraction, agriculture, natural vegetation, and wildfires, as well as characterize the regional inflow and outflow of pollution, and how air circulation patterns over the complex mountain terrain move pollutants around. Measurements collected from surface stations, upward looking lidars and profilers, mobile vans, balloons and sondes, and aircrafts. Together with satellite data and model analysis provide the most comprehensive characterization of air quality ever conducted in the region.

26 Picture Courtesy: James Crawford, NASA NASA P-3: Continuous mapping of aerosols (HSRL) and trace gas columns (ACAM) NASA B-200: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases over surface sites Ground: In situ trace gases and aerosols, Remote sensing of trace gas and aerosol columns, Ozonesondes, Aerosol lidar GEO-TASO on King Air

27 Tracer Forecast Oil and Gas Source Tracer NSF/NCAR C-130: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases Ground: In-situ chemistry and aerosols, tethered balloon, wind profilers, mobile vans, canisters, etc. Chemical Modeling: Forecasting and Analysis

28 Front Range Ground Sites WRF Areas Source Tracer WRF Mobile Source Tracer WRF Oil&Gas Source Tracer WRF Agri Source Tracer Statistics over campaign, tracer concentrations are not comparable to each other

29 Powerplants SO 2 and NO x High Low Low High

30 The Denver Cyclone C-130 NO x C-130 Ethane High High Low Low