Rapid Sea Ice Loss in Climate Model Simulations of a Changing Arctic
|
|
- Willa Norman
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Rapid Sea Ice Loss in Climate Model Simulations of a Changing Arctic Marika M Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is sponsored by the Na3onal Science Founda3on
2 September Ice Extent 1 September Arctic Sea Ice Extent km 4 NSIDC Ice Index (Obs) CCSM3 Results Range across 8 Ensemble Members Year (Holland et al., 6)
3 September Ice Extent 1 September Arctic Sea Ice Extent km 4 NSIDC Ice Index (Obs) CCSM3 Results Range across 8 Ensemble Members Year (Holland et al., 6)
4 Changes associated with Rapid Summer Ice Loss (Holland et al., 6) Ocean Heat Transport to Arctic Cloud Cover (Vavrus et al., 1) 6 Terrestrial warming (Lawrence et al., 8)
5 Ice thickness shows large drop associated w/ event March Ice Thickness This change is similar to earlier reductions in th century that had little ice extent change. Increased efficiency of OW production for a given ice melt rate As ice thins, vertical melting more efficiently produces open water Relationship with ice thickness is non-linear
6 Sea ice loss is modified by climate feedbacks Fundamental sea ice thermodynamics gives rise to a number of important feedbacks Balance of fluxes at surface F sw!f sw F LW F SH F LH (1"#)F SW + F LW "$T 4 + F SH + F LH +k %T dh = "q %z dt h s -k s dt/dz h i T 1 T T 3 T 4 -k dt/dz Vertical heat transfer (conduction, SW absorption) F ocn Surface albedo changes modify SW absorption in ice and ocean heat flux Ice loss lowers albedo positive feedback Balance of fluxes at ice base F ocn " k #T #z = "q dh dt
7 Ice mass budgets affected by climate feedbacks Fundamental sea ice thermodynamics gives rise to a number of important feedbacks Grow/Melt h s h i. 1.5 F sw 1.!F sw F LW T 4 Melt F SH -k s dt/dz -k dt/dz F LH.5 T (Following 1 T. Bitz and Roe, 4) T Annual Thickness Balance of fluxes at surface (1"#)F SW + F LW "$T 4 + F SH + F LH +k %T dh = "q %z dt Vertical heat transfer (conduction, SW absorption) F ocn Heat conduction related to vertical temperature gradient Causes ice growth to vary as 1/h Has a stabilizing effect on ice thickness since thin ice grows more rapidly Balance of fluxes at ice base F ocn " k #T #z = "q dh dt
8 Sea Ice Model Schematic Ice Mass Budget Ice volume change Thermodynamic source Divergence
9 1 Mass Budget Change Control Melt Divergence Sea ice mass budget m 5 Thickness Year 4 Ice volume 3 change 1 Thermodynamic source Divergence grow/melt+div Melt+Divergence Thickness Year From Slab Thermodynamic Considerations Grow/Melt Melt Annual Thickness
10 Does this Rapid Ice Loss Result From a Tipping Point? If we initialize simulations after a possible threshold, will ice retreat to summer ice-free conditions even with no continued forcing changes 7 Experiments CO Concentra3ons CO b3.3b.es1 b3.4b.es1 b3.4b b3.4b.es1bcom3 b3.4b.es1bcom4 b3.4b.es1bcom5 A1B Scenario C Obs Year (Holland et al., in prep)
11 With no continued increases in CO, Arctic does not transition to summer ice-free conditions September Ice Extent CO remains at values CO remains at 3 values CO continues to increase 1 Model results suggest Rapid ice loss events in CCSM3 do not result from threshold behavior Stabilizing feedbacks allow a perennial ice pack to remain
12 m m Year Mass Budget Change Commit -1 Melt - Divergence Year Mass Budget Change Control Melt Divergence Year Sea ice mass budgets grow/melt+div grow/melt+div grow/melt+div Melt+Divergence 5. Stabilizing effects of growth and divergence Thickness Thickness
13 .6.4. Heat Flux Change Annual Flwout_aice Net Flux Net Heat Flux Annual Annual Flat_aice Flwdn Incoming Longwave Annual Annual Fswabs_aice Fhnet_aice Ice-Ocean Heat Flux in 5.5 commitment runs Annual Fswabs_aice Reduced net heat flux to sea ice Results largely from: reduced incoming LW radiation Direct influence of CO Annual Fsens_aice.forcing Possible cloud feedbacks -.5 Reduced ice-ocean heat exchange associated with surface albedo feedback Annual Net Flux Control: CO increases CO remains at values CO remains at 3 values Annual Fsens_aice
14 Stability of Seasonally Ice-Free State Performed highly idealized experiments Runs initialized with 1 CCSM3 conditions (seasonally ice free Arctic state) Reductions in CO concentrations applied 7 Experiments CO Concentrations CO b3.3b.es1 b3.4b.es1 b3.4b b3.4b.es1bcom3 b3.4b.es1bcom4 b3.4b.es1bcom5 C Obs A1B Scenario 19 1 Year
15 September Extent March Thickness iextent (1 6 km ) 6 4 (as func3on of 3me) hi (1 13 m 3 ) 3 1 (as func3on of 3me) Time Time iextent (1 6 km ) 6 4 * (as func3on of CO) hi (1 13 m 3 ) 3 1 * (as func3on of CO) CO CO
16 Ann NH extent Ann Ice Extent th Century 1st Century -.4 million km /K Ann Global TREFHT b.es1bcom4 b3.3b.es1 b3.4b.es1bcom5 b3.4b.es1bcom3 Sept Ice Extent Relationship to global surface air temperature Linear relationship of annual NH ice extent and global SAT Relationship with September extent and ice thickness not linear Relationship nearly identical for the ice loss and ice recovery simulations 4 Annual Ice Thickness Sept NH extent 6 4 Ann Arctic hi Ann Global TREFHT Ann Global TREFHT
17 9 8 7 SAT (8-99 minus ) Arctic amplification Latitude Ann Global TREFHT minus Present Day 3 J F M A M J J A S O N D Ann Polar TREFHT o C Arctic amplification has similar characteristics for the loss and recovery of perennial sea ice In CCSM3, the Arctic surface air temperature change is about 3Xs that of the global change
18 Conclusions Climate simulations exhibit rapid ice loss events (RILEs) in the summer Arctic sea ice with associated changes throughout the Arctic system Simulations suggest that these RILEs Are not associated with threshold behavior But instead result from large natural variability superimposed on considerable GHG forced change Simulations initialized from a summer ice free (1) state with applied reductions in CO Recover an Arctic perennial ice pack with some time lag Relationship of sea ice conditions (state, mass budget) to global air temperature is nearly identical for the loss and recovery of perennial sea ice Suggests that loss of perennial sea ice is reversible NOTE: These are highly idealized runs that would require technology to scrub CO from the atmosphere
19 Questions?
20 Extra Slides
21 Sea Ice Model - Dynamics Sea Ice Model - Dynamics! Force balance between wind stress, water! Ice treated as a continuum with an effective stress,rheology internaldescribing ice stress, and stress large-scale thecoriolis relationship between stress and flow! associated with sea surface slope! Force balance between wind stress, water stress, Ice treated as a continuum with an effective internal ice stress, coriolis and stress associated large-scale rheology describing the with sea surface slope! relationship stress and! Ice freely divergesbetween (no tensile strength)! Ice freely diverges tensile! Ice resists convergence and(no shear! flow strength)! Multiple ice categories advectedand withshear same velocity Ice resists convergence field! "u m = #mfk $ u + % a + % o # mg&h + & ' "t Coriolis Coriolis Air Air stress stress Ocean Ocean stress stress Sea Sea Slope Slope Internal Internal Ice Ice Stress Stress (e.g. Hibler, 1979)
22 Thermodynamics Vertical heat transfer Assume e brine pockets are in thermal equilibrium with ice Heat capacity and conductivity are functions of T/S of ice Assume constant salinity profile Assume non-varying density Assume pockets/channels are brine filled brine filled "c #T #t = # #z k #T #z + Q SW! Q SW = " d dz I SW e"#z where I SW = i (1"#)F SW (from Light, Maykut, Grenfell, 3) (Maykut and Untersteiner, 1971; Bitz and Lipscomb, 1999; others)
23 What allows sea ice recovery? Ice Loss - Run with increasing GHG 1 1 m Melt Divergence Mass Budget Change b3.3-4 Melt Divergence Ice Recovery decreasing GHG 4 - Mass Budget Change b3.4b.es1bcom4 Melt Divergence Increased Enhanced Melt Year Year 1 1 m Mass Budget b3.3-4 Enhanced Melt Yrs: Mlt: -.63 Gro:.97 Yrs: 8-99 Mlt: -.66 Gro:.73 Ice loss Month transition Reduced J F M A M J J A S O N D Mass Budget Change b m Mass Budget b3.4b.es1bcom4 Yrs: 81-1 Mlt: -.66 Gro:.7 Yrs: Mlt: -.89 Gro: 1.3 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Mass Budget Change b3.4b.es1bcom4 Melt
24 b3.4b.es1bcom4 Ice (1 1 m 3 ) Ice Melt (1 1 m 3 ) Ice Divergence (1 1 m 3 ) Ice Volume (1 1 m 3 ) b3.4b.es1bcom Ice Volume (1 1 m 3 ) Melt Divergence b3.4b.es1bcom Ice Volume (1 1 m 3 ) Ice Volume Ice Loss Ice Recovery Mass budget Characteristics as a function of ice state are similar during the ice loss and ice recovery simulations Hints of a difference with ice divergence response (more obvious in other run), but not clear how robust/significant
25 Ice Thickness Distribution 6 5 ITD for April b3.4b.es1 4 % Thickness
26 8. Using Perennial Start-of-Time Ice Melt+Div(black)/(red) Ann Thickness 1.5 Using Perennial Start-of-Time Ice Melt(black)&Div(blue) Anom Ann Thickness
27 Simple Thermodynamics of a Sea Ice Slab! T S F A F Ctop Atmosphere dh q i B dt! = F C " F B! Basal /Melt h i T B F Cbase F B Sea Ice Ocean! F C = k i (T B " T S ) h i!! Conductive Heat Flux (Semtner -layer model) Thickness Year Grow/Melt Melt Annual Thickness (Following Bitz and Roe, 4)
NEXT WEEK. Tues: Please read Martinson et al 1981, at least through section 4. Paragraph about projects due 5/21 by
NEXT WEEK Tues: Please read Martinson et al 1981, at least through section 4 Paragraph about projects due 5/21 by email Where is the coastline? Surface Air Temperature Jan 1999 Where is the sea ice edge?
More informationThe Science of Climate Change
The Science of Climate Change http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Glaciers are retreating worldwide, including Colorado Arapahoe Glacier, 1917 Arapahoe Glacier, 2004 Sea Level is Rising End of summer ice
More informationClimate Change. Predictions
Climate Change Predictions Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger 1 Climate Change 93 Source: IPCC (2007), WG1 Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger 1 Climate Change 94 Source: IPCC (2007), WG1 Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger
More informationTrends in. Century Climate. Other signs of (global) warming. Observed changes in physical & biological systems
Observed changes in physical & biological systems NAM North America LA Latin America EUR Europe AFR Africa AS Asia ANZ Ausie/NZ PR Polar Regions TER Terrestrial MFW Marine/Fresh W GLO Global (All) - melting
More informationHigh School Climate Science Curriculum Course learning goals. October 2011
1 High School Climate Science Curriculum Course learning goals October 2011 Current Climate 1. Earth climate is determined by a balance between absorbed sunlight and emitted infrared radiation. Because
More information- geographic patterns of energy balance
(1 of 10) Further Reading: Chapter 04 of the text book Outline - geographic patterns of energy balance - net radiation - meridional transport (2 of 10) Introduction Previously, we discussed the energy
More informationDoes the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L23504, doi:10.1029/2006gl028017, 2006 Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point? Michael Winton 1 Received 5 September 2006; revised
More informationPermafrost-climate feedbacks in CESM/CLM
Permafrost-climate feedbacks in CESM/CLM David Lawrence Andrew Slater 2, Sean Swenson 1, Charlie Koven 3, Bill Riley 3, Zack Subin 3, Hanna Lee 1 and the CESM LMWG 1 NCAR Earth System Lab, Boulder, CO
More informationTransient versus Equilibrium warming
Transient versus Equilibrium warming (Shallow ocean) Transient warming is smaller Transient warming is asymmetric across hemispheres Transient warming is modest in the northern North Atlantic Ocean heat
More informationGlobal warming is already happening
Climate change Global warming is already happening and it is not just temperature Is the change significant? why, yes We are no longer involved in just a scientific debate over how observations fit theories
More informationCauses of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate. Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
Causes of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Overview 1.The causes of observed climate change 2.Global and regional climate projections
More informationSea ice field at time of annual minimum extent. NASA
Sea ice field at time of annual minimum extent. NASA Climate Models & Climate Sensitivity: A Review Sea ice field at time of annual minimum extent. NASA Paul Kushner Department of Physics, University of
More informationThe Role of the Extra-tropical tropical Upper Ocean Mixed Layer in Climate Variability. Clara Deser, NCAR
The Role of the Extra-tropical tropical Upper Ocean Mixed Layer in Climate Variability Clara Deser, NCAR IMAGe Workshop, 15 May 2006 OUTLINE Overview of key physical processes The seasonal cycle of the
More informationClimate Engineering with Aerosols -- Predictable Consequences?
Climate Engineering with Aerosols -- Predictable Consequences? David S. Battisti, University of Washington Collaborators: Kelly McCusker, Cecilia Bitz and Phil Rasch Introduction: what is out there? Engineering
More informationThresholds for the future of the Greenland Ice-sheet. Steve George Jonathan Gregory Robin Smith
Thresholds for the future of the Greenland Ice-sheet Steve George Jonathan Gregory Robin Smith Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) GrIS mass is steady if surface mass balance (SMB; snowfall minus melting) equals
More informationAn Early-Term Report Card for CESM1.5 Energy and Water Budgets
An Early-Term Report Card for CESM1.5 Energy and Water Budgets John Fasullo CGD, NCAR Goals To compare CESM1.5 to current best estimate obs To provide context versus CMIP5 models To provide context against
More informationEvidence and implications of anthropogenic climate change
Evidence and implications of anthropogenic climate change Earth s Climate has always been changing 1) Is climate changing now? Global Warming? Sea level rising IPCC 2007 Fig. 5.13 (p. 410) Recontructed
More informationGlobal Warming Projections Using the Community Climate System Model, CCSM3
Global Warming Projections Using the Community Climate System Model, CCSM3 YOSHIDA Yoshikatsu, MARUYAMA Koki, TAKAHARA Hiroshi Abstract This paper provides an outline of the global warming projections
More informationThe Water Cycle, Atmosphere, and Cryosphere. OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 12 April 2018
The Water Cycle, Atmosphere, and Cryosphere OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 12 April 2018 Student Learning Outcomes (SLOs) At the completion of today s section, students should be able to: 1. Summarize components
More informationEvaluations of Terrestrial Biogeochemical Feedbacks of Stratospheric Geoengineering Strategies
Evaluations of Terrestrial Biogeochemical Feedbacks of Stratospheric Geoengineering Strategies Cheng-En Yang The University of Tennessee Oak Ridge National Laboratory Collaborators: Forrest Hoffman, Simone
More informationAtmosphere, the Water Cycle and Climate Change
Atmosphere, the Water Cycle and Climate Change OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 16 April 2013 (Based on previous lectures by Barry Huebert) 2013 F.J. Sansone 1. The water cycle Outline 2. Climate and climate-change
More informationLand Ecosystems and Climate a modeling perspective
Land Ecosystems and Climate a modeling perspective Samuel Levis Community Land Model Science Liaison Terrestrial Sciences Section, CGD, ESSL, NCAR 12 August 2009 Why the Land? the land surface is a critical
More informationOutline. should believe in global warming. prediction of climate change Is it us and what will it mean? extreme weather Barriers to progress?
Outline What s happening to our climate and why we should believe in global warming Climate modelling and the attribution and prediction of climate change Is it us and what will it mean? Big issues and
More informationThe Arctic Energy Budget
The Arctic Energy Budget The global heat engine [courtesy Kevin Trenberth, NCAR]. Differential solar heating between low and high latitudes gives rise to a circulation of the atmosphere and ocean that
More informationGlobal warming. Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries
Global warming Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries 1. Burning fossil fuels (primarily) 2. Land use changes (mostly local impacts)
More informationRadiative forcing of gases, aerosols and, clouds.
Lecture 23. Radiative forcing of gases, aerosols and, clouds. 1. Concepts of radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, and radiation feedbacks. 2. Radiative forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. 3.
More informationRobust increase in effective climate sensitivity with transient warming
Robust increase in effective climate sensitivity with transient warming Kyle C Armour Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ringberg 5 Courtesy of NASA s Earth
More informationModelling the stratospheric polar vortex and its changes for GHGs increase and ozone depletion. Elisa Manzini
Modelling the stratospheric polar vortex and its changes for GHGs increase and ozone depletion. Elisa Manzini (manzini@ingv.it) National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (Bologna, Italy) Thanks:
More informationDetermining causes of warming: Climate models & the smoking gun
Determining causes of warming: Climate models & the smoking gun Announcements TONIGHT: HW #6 (paper outlines) due in lecture! bring up at Break HW #7 (presentation outlines) due in section next week Email
More informationEarth energy budget and balance
Earth energy budget and balance 31% total reflection (3% clouds. 8% surface) 69% absorption( 0% clouds, 49% surface) Reflection is frequency dependent but will be treated as average value for visible light
More informationCLIMATE RESPONSES TO PROGRESSIVE MID- LATITUDE AFFORESTATION
CLIMATE RESPONSES TO PROGRESSIVE MID- LATITUDE AFFORESTATION Marysa Laguë Dept. of Atmospheric Science University of Washington Ecoclimate Lab Advisor: Dr. Abigail Swann 1. Global climate impacts of mid-latitude
More informationContrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change
Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change Erich Fischer 1, David Lawrence 2, Keith Oleson 2, Reto Knutti 1 1 ETH Zurich, Switzerland 2 NCAR, Boulder, CO Erich Fischer Motivation
More informationRadiation and Climate Change
Radiation and Climate Change Earth s Energy Balance Forcing and Feedback Implications for climate change including the global water cycle Introduction / Motivations Past societies e.g. Jared Diamond: Collapse
More informationThe Chemistry of Climate Change. Reading: Chapter 8 Environmental Chemistry, G. W. vanloon. S. J. Duffy
The Chemistry of Climate Change Reading: Chapter 8 Environmental Chemistry, G. W. vanloon. S. J. Duffy The Science of Global Climate There's a lot of differing data, but as far as I can gather, over the
More informationChapter outline. introduction. Reference. Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science
Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of Science & Technology Chapter outline Future Forcing and Scenarios,
More informationIs the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? 12/13/2016. Yes!
1 2 3 Yes! 4 Yes! But Earth's climate is always changing! 5 Yes! But Earth's climate is always changing! 6 Throughout its 4.5 billion year history, Earth's climate has alternated between periods of warmth
More informationClimate change in the Arctic region
Photo credit: NASA Climate change in the Arctic region Stefan Fronzek Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Outline Introduction Climate change in the Arctic Impacts on nature Responses: mitigation + mitigation
More informationClimate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake
Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake Probabilistic Estimates of Global Warming Geoffrey K. Vallis Lauren Padilla, Isaac Held, Mike Winton, Clancy Rowley Princeton University UCLA, May 3 Motivation
More informationClimate Dynamics (PCC 587): Climate Forcings
Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Climate Forcings DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 7: 10-16-13 Outline of This Topic Climate forcings Things that directly
More informationConcentrations of several of these greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CFCs) have increased dramatically in the last hundred years due to human
Global Warming 1.1 The facts: With no atmosphere surrounding the earth the surface temperature would be 17 o C. However, due to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that absorb infrared radiation emitted
More informationGlobal Climatic Change. GEOG/ENST 2331 Lecture 22 Ahrens: Chapter 16
Global Climatic Change GEOG/ENST 2331 Lecture 22 Ahrens: Chapter 16 Global Climatic Change! Review: Radiation balance! Enhanced greenhouse effect! human-induced change! Climate feedbacks Climatic change!
More informationHave We Had an Impact? Global Warming. 3 Forms of Heat Transfer. Thickness of Earth s Atmosphere. The Impact on Engineering
Have We Had an Impact? Global Warming The Impact on Engineering Have We Had an Impact? Have We Had an Impact? Thickness of Earth s Atmosphere 3 Forms of Heat Transfer The Earth s atmosphere is very thin.
More informationTribal Climate Change Webinar Series
Tribal Climate Change Webinar Series June-July 2013 Hosted by Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals Northern Arizona University http://www4.nau.edu/itep/ 1 Tribal Climate Change Webinar Series
More informationANSWER KEY TO THE PRACTICE QUESTIONS ON THE FINAL EXAM STUDY GUIDE
ANSWER KEY TO THE PRACTICE QUESTIONS ON THE FINAL EXAM STUDY GUIDE -- 2013 1. Y (visible) 2. Z (infrared) 3. X (ultraviolet) 4. d (the absorption is occurring almost entirely in the infrared (LW) part
More informationG8 Summit Symposium (June, 24) Drastic Change in the Earth System
G8 Summit Symposium (June, 24) Drastic Change in the Earth System during Global Warming Call for questions 1. Clarify causes and magnitude of sea level lrise (J. Church, M. Ikeda) 2D 2. Decay of glaciers
More informationModel Experiments. Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) Derived concentrations for overshoot scenario Includes maximum decarbonization
Climate outcome of combined mitigation and geoengineering scenarios between 2040 and 2200 Simone Tilmes, Ben Sanderson, Brian O Neill Scenario: Business as usual until 2040. What is required to stabilize
More informationThe CESM2 Contribution to PMIP4/CMIP6. Bob Tomas, Bette Otto Bliesner, Esther Brady, Ran Feng, J.F. Lamarque
The CESM2 Contribution to PMIP4/CMIP6 Bob Tomas, Bette Otto Bliesner, Esther Brady, Ran Feng, J.F. Lamarque PMIP s Main Objectives Modelling past climates to: Understand mechanisms for documented past
More informationCONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CHAPTER 11: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 11.1: Major Findings The aim of this study has been to define the impact of Southeast Asian deforestation on climate and the large-scale atmospheric circulation.
More informationATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007
ATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007 Name This examination consists of a total of 100 points. In each of the first two sections, you have a choice of which questions to answer. Please note that you
More informationThe IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change
The IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change Martin Manning Director, IPCC Working Group I Support Unit 1. Observed climate change 2. Drivers of climate change 3. Attribution of cause
More informationMulticentury Climate Warming Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry
Multicentury Climate Warming Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry Prof. J. Keith Moore University of California, Irvine Collaborators: Weiwei Fu, Francois Primeau, Greg Britten, Keith Lindsay, Matthew Long,
More informationIntroduction to the Community Earth System Model
Introduction to the Community Earth System Model Jean-François Lamarque CESM Chief Scientist Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling and Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratories NCAR What is a
More informationGreenhouse gases. A snow-covered surface refl ects massive amounts of sunlight and therefore has a cooling effect on the climate.
A k t u e l N a t u r v i d e n s k a b 2 0 0 9 G R E E N H O U S E G A S E S 13 Greenhouse gases - and their impact on the climate The greenhouse effect is the best understood and well mapped of the mechanisms
More informationClimate system dynamics and modelling
Climate system dynamics and modelling Hugues Goosse Chapter 6 Future climate changes Outline Methods used to estimate future climate changes. Description of the main results at different timescales. Interpretation
More informationLecture 11: Global Warming
Lecture 11: Global Warming CO 2 CH 4 How much of the global warming is caused by Natural climate change and by human activities? What is the sensitivity of Earth s climate to the increases of greehouse
More informationAMAP and arctic climate change Morten S. Olsen Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate
AMAP and arctic climate change Morten S. Olsen Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate Arctic Climate Change Impacts 1997 2004/2005 2011 2017 Arctic Pollution Issues, 1997 The effects of global
More informationTime-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks
Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation As Published Publisher
More informationEarth s Climate from Space. Richard Allan Department of Meteorology University of Reading
Earth s Climate from Space Richard Allan Department of Meteorology University of Reading Earth s energy balance in space S πr 2 4πr 2 Outgoing Thermal Radiative Energy Absorbed Solar Radiative Energy
More informationAtmospheric Sciences 211. Who are we? About Me. Course Goals. What this course is/isn t about
Surface Temperature 1960-1991 Atmospheric Sciences 211 Climate of the present. We will examine the nature of the global climate system and the factors controlling its present state. Topics covered will
More informationAtmospheric Sciences 211. Who are we? About Me
Surface Temperature 1960-1991 Atmospheric Sciences 211 Climate of the present. We will examine the nature of the global climate system and the factors controlling its present state. Topics covered will
More informationBACC II. Preliminary results. Based on the BACC II Conference Tallinn, Estonia 6-7 September 2012
BACC II Preliminary results Based on the BACC II Conference Tallinn, Estonia 6-7 September 2012 Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin: BACC II BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the
More informationModeling with 2D/3D coupling to simulate the movement of a brine plume
Modeling with 2D/3D coupling to simulate the movement of a brine plume Ben R. Hodges, Ph.D. Paula S. Kulis (student) University of Texas at Austin International Symposium Technological Advances in the
More informationWhat is climate change? - BBC News
What is climate change? - BBC News Media caption Why we should care about climate change? In December, of cials from across the world will gather in Paris, France, to try to hammer out a deal to tackle
More informationToday. Events. Terrestrial Planet Climate. Homework DUE. Review next time. Exam next week
Today Terrestrial Planet Climate Events Homework DUE Review next time Exam next week Wonders of the Industrial Age From 1912 Weather and Climate Weather is the ever-varying combination of wind, clouds,
More informationThe context: 6.7 billion people 1 planet. Is there a future?
Global Warming: The Scientific Basis for Anthropogenic Climate Change The context: 6.7 billion people 1 planet. Is there a future? The global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been
More informationExercises: Glacier meteorology / Energy balance
Summer School in Glaciology, McCarthy, 2012 Regine Hock Exercises: Glacier meteorology / Energy balance 1.) ENERGY BALANCE MELT CALCULATION A glacier is polythermal with a cold surface layer. The glacier
More informationIntroduction to Climate Change. Rodel D. Lasco Professor University of the Philippines
RD Lasco 1 Introduction to Climate Change Rodel D. Lasco Professor University of the Philippines Outline The climate system What is climate change? Evidence for climate change Predicted change in climate
More informationThe Changing Effects of Arctic Terrestrial. University of Alaska Fairbanks
The Changing Effects of Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Climate System Eugénie Euskirchen Eugénie Euskirchen University of Alaska Fairbanks The Terrestrial Arctic Grey Area = Tundra Green Area = Permafrost
More informationWhen is the Permafrost Carbon Tipping Point?
When is the Permafrost Carbon Tipping Point? Kevin Schaefer1, Tingjun Zhang1, Lori Bruhwiler2, Andrew P. Barrett1, Zhuxiao Li1 1National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado 2NOAA Earth System
More informationClimate and carbon impacts on productivity, chemistry and invasive species in the Great Lakes
Climate and carbon impacts on productivity, chemistry and invasive species in the Great Lakes Galen A. McKinley University of Wisconsin - Madison Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Nelson Institute Center
More informationKey Factor Climate Sensitivity
Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity SOLAS Summer School 14 th of August 2009 Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Key Factor Climate Sensitivity CO 2 Emissions
More informationResponse of the CHIME coupled climate model to two climate forcing scenarios
Response of the CHIME coupled climate model to two climate forcing scenarios Adam Blaker, Alex Megann, Adrian New and Bablu Sinha National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK LOM Workshop, Miami, June
More informationWinter 2009: ATMS/OCN/ESS 588 The Global Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gases. Course Goals
PCC 588 - January 6 and 8 2009 Winter 2009: ATMS/OCN/ESS 588 The Global Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gases T,Th 12:00-1:20 pm OSB 25 Course Goals The course focuses on factors controlling the global cycle
More informationHeating and Warming: Sensitivity of Earth s Climate to Atmospheric CO 2
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP Heating and Warming: Sensitivity of Earth s Climate to Atmospheric CO 2 Presented by: Scott Denning and Randy Russell September 24, 2012 6:30 p.m. 8:00 p.m. Eastern
More informationChanges to the Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment to ensure consistency with the approved Summary for Policymakers
THIRTY-SIXTH SESSION OF THE IPCC Stockholm, 26 September 2013 IPCC-XXXVI/Doc. 4 (27.IX.2013) Agenda Item: 3 ENGLISH ONLY ACCEPTANCE OF THE ACTIONS TAKEN AT THE TWELFTH SESSION OF WORKING GROUP I Working
More informationState of the planetary life support system
State of the planetary life support system "We're simply talking about the very life support system of this planet Joachim Hans Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute and Climate
More informationWelcome to ATMS 111 Global Warming.
Welcome to ATMS 111 Global Warming http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2010q1/111 Censored Spotted by Jennifer Le Today Review and Finish up The Greenhouse Effect - RG p 21-30 A rogues gallery of greenhouse
More informationAnthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon
MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon Massimo A. Bollasina 1, Yi Ming 2 and V. Ramaswamy 2 1 Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic
More informationObservational Constraints on the Global Methane Budget
Observational Constraints on the Global Methane Budget Ed Dlugokencky NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division Boulder, Colorado USA ed.dlugokencky@noaa.gov Outline Data (NOAA CH
More informationAnnouncements. Homework 8 - paper 2 topics, questions and sources due Tuesday, Nov. 13 Midterm Paper 2 - due Tuesday, Nov. 20
Thursday, November 6th. Announcements. Homework 8 - paper 2 topics, questions and sources due Tuesday, Nov. 13 Midterm Paper 2 - due Tuesday, Nov. 20 Lecture #18-1 Lecture #18-2 http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/06/project-to-harness-plankton-puts-to-sea/index.html
More informationpolar stratospheric ozone & Southern Hemisphere climate change l.m. polvani
polar stratospheric ozone & Southern Hemisphere climate change l.m. polvani atmospheric circulation changes for the last several decades observations indicate: + strengthening of the Southern Annual Mode
More informationIWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change. Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change Outline presentation This session will address: The drivers/physical science basis of climate change The observed and
More informationClimate change forcing using simple physics
Climate change forcing using simple physics Dr Arnaud Czaja Imperial College, London & Grantham Institute for Climate Change Outline Motivation -the debate about empirical evidence of climate change -the
More informationRadiative forcing of climate change
Radiative forcing of climate change Joanna D. Haigh Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London Radiative forcing concept, definition and applications On a global and annual average, and
More informationOverview of Global Climate Change. Barry Lefer University of Houston 29 Jan 2007
Overview of Global Climate Change Barry Lefer University of Houston 29 Jan 2007 Global CO snapshot MOPPITT satellite October 3, 2003 More Recent carbon dioxide Temperature Scales Gabriel Fahrenheit
More informationPHY392S Physics of Climate. Lecture 1. Introduction
PHY392S Physics of Climate Lecture 1 Introduction Slides based on material from Prof. K. Strong PHY392S - Physics of Climate Lecture 1, Page 1 Some Definitions Weather the fluctuating state of the atmosphere
More informationIPCC WGI AR6 Needs for climate system observation data. Panmao Zhai. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China
IPCC WGI AR6 Needs for climate system observation data Panmao Zhai Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China 25 September 2017 AR5 WGI Outline 1: Introduction 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
More informationIntegrating albedo into integrated assessment
Integrating albedo into integrated assessment Andrew D Jones, Katherine Calvin, William Collins, Jae Edmonds LBNL - UC Berkeley - PNNL - JGCRI Terrestrial Carbon Management Reforestation & Afforestation
More informationLecture 8: Anthropogenic Climate Change. Instructor: Prof. Johnny Luo. Acknowledge: IPCC
Lecture 8: Anthropogenic Climate Change Instructor: Prof. Johnny Luo Acknowledge: IPCC Energy Budget Fluid (atmosphere/ ocean) motions to redistribute energy Energy imbalance (forcing) and climate change
More informationLecture 7 Global Warming/Climate Change (Observations and Attribution of Cause) METR/ENVS 113 Spring Semester 2011 May 3, 2011
Lecture 7 Global Warming/Climate Change (Observations and Attribution of Cause) METR/ENVS 113 Spring Semester 2011 May 3, 2011 Reading Henson Rough Guide Chapter 1 Pages 75 127; 215; 227-244 Other pages
More informationUrbanizing the Community Earth System Model (CESM): Overview and Applications. Keith Oleson
Urbanizing the Community Earth System Model (CESM): Overview and Applications Keith Oleson NCAR Earth System Laboratory Climate and Global Dynamics Division Terrestrial Sciences Section Collaborators:
More informationMitigation Delay Sensitivity: A new policy-relevant metric
IPRC Seminar 15. August 2016 Mitigation Delay Sensitivity: A new policy-relevant metric Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute, University of Bern Switzerland In collaboration
More informationAssessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin
The BACC Author Team Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin 4u Springer Contents Preface The BACC Author Team Acknowledgements V VII XIII 1 Introduction and Summary 1 1.1 The BACC Approach
More informationDependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO 2. emission pathways. Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience
Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO 2 emission pathways This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down
More informationActivity 1.4: GEEBITT (Global Equilibrium Energy Balance Interactive Tinker Toy)
Activity 1.4: GEEBITT (Global Equilibrium Energy Balance Interactive Tinker Toy) Grades 5 6 Description: Students use the NASA Micro-GEEBITT modeling tool to explore how changing variables in Earth systems
More informationLecture 11: Global Warming. Human Acticities. Natural Climate Changes. Global Warming: Natural or Man-Made CO 2 CH 4
Lecture 11: Global Warming Human Acticities CO 2 CH 4 The initial appearance of human species: last 100,000 to 200,000 years Development of the first civilization: the last 10,000 years What is the sensitivity
More informationHow Can Thermal Effects Be Explained?
How Can Thermal Effects Be Explained? Lesson 6, Part 3: Climate Science The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect The Earth will maintain equilibrium (constant stable temperature level) if the energy coming in is.
More informationOcean Literacy The ocean is a major influence on weather and climate.
Freshand Salt Principle 3 Ocean Literacy The ocean is a major influence on weather and climate. Great Lakes Literacy The Great Lakes influence local and regional weather and climate. 49 Fresh Salt and
More informationSoft Geoengineering: Ice911
Soft Geoengineering: Ice911 Leslie Field Founder Ice911 Research Corporation www.ice911.org leslie@ice911.org Consulting Professor Electrical Engineering Howe Group lafield@stanford.edu (650) 823-2020
More informationArctic Observing Network (AON)
Arctic Observing Network (AON) Martin O. Jeffries National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Division of Arctic Sciences National Science Foundation ational Science Foundation Ocean Research
More information