RES4LESS project - Romania as User of the renewables Cooperation Mechanisms

Transcription

1 RES4LESS project - Romania as User of the renewables Cooperation Mechanisms Cristian Tantareanu, ENERO c.tantareanu@enero.ro Francesco Dalla Longa, ECN dalla@ecn.nl 1

2 Outline EU 2020 renewables targets Renewables Cooperation Mechanisms The RES4LESS project Romania as User of the Cooperation Mechanisms

3 EU 2020 RES Targets

4 Cooperation Mechanisms

5 The RES4LESS Project ECN, the Netherlands DTU, Denmark Oeko Institue, Germany Ciemat, Spain IT Power, UK Enero, Romania Enviros, Czech Republic

6 Directive Renewables and the recent amended Romanian Law 220 state the cooperation mechanisms The EC encourages the RES cooperation mechanisms [Communication June 2012] The RES4LESS project aims to identify, and stimulate possible CMs related to the RES Electricity targets

7 Objectives

8 RES-E Valleys of Opportunity Surplus Potential: potential for deployment of RES over and above RES obligations Valley of Opportunity: readily exploitable fraction of surplus potential RESolve-E Analyze Surpluses expensive deficit Identify Interesting Host-User Combinations cheap surplus

9 Methodology Cost Supply Curves

10 Results: Surpluses

11 Results: Costs

12 Results VoOs (selections) Many opportunities 3 case studies: DK NL Offshore Wind RO NL Biomass ES NL Concentrated Solar Power

13 Biomass Case Study of CM

14 Biomass case study Romania Target RO Netherlands Target NL ANALYTICAL BACKGROUND The cost supply curves methodology Costs [ ct/kwh] Potential [GWh]

15 Why power from biomass for CM with Romania Wind already consumed its realistic potential due to grid acceptance limitation. Sun offer may not compete with other countries (Spain etc.) Cooperation on hydro is possible, but ask more elaborated projects. Biomass is still neglected in comparison with the good resources and it is used inefficiently (15% efficiency in rural stoves) What kind of biomass? - Avoid forestry resources if not clearly sustainable. - Agricultural waste - Vegetal product from energy crops on unused land - Animal waste What kind of technology? - No restriction if mature and efficient on the market

16 Estimation of the biomass surplus It resulted c.a. 6 TWh/year biomass potential surplus by 2020 According to NREAP, Romania intends to contribute with only 9.2% (2.9 TWh) biomass electricity from total RES-E. In comparison, Poland foresees a biomass electricity contribution to their quota of about 14 TWh/year, 5 times higher, while the biomass realistic potential ratio between the two countries is only c.a Hungary, a country with much less biomass potential than Romania is already producing in 2010, 2 TWh electricity from solid biomass and, foresees c.a. 3 TWh in So far the analyses shows that Romania is on good track to fulfill the 2020 target, especially the RES-E target (PwC sees an over fulfillment of the 2020 quota): Expected more wind power than the NREAP estimations: Expected more solar power than the NREAP estimations: No danger to need more than 2.9 TWh/2020year biomass for the own quota! A realistic surplus for CM is c.a. 2 TWh/year

17 Estimated evolution of RES-E production (without large hydro) versus the targets, with and without the biomass CM RES-E targets Expected RES-E RES-E + biomass cooperation Year

18 Characteristics of RO NL cooperation Technology Capacity of biomass plants Construction time per plant Generation costs Location Production Cooperation mechanism All biomass technologies competitive in the Romanian market 2 20 MW ~1 year 13 c /kwh (average weighted value according to the resources and technologies types) The range is large, 9 18 c /kwh Distributed 2 TWh/y in c.a. 280 MW total installed capacity Framework for several small joint projects without physical transfer

19 Evaluation of the minimal compensation price asked by the Host country, Romania Costs for Biomass Power Generation in RO Average Euro/MWh Revenue from RO grey market 64 Euro/MWh Support for RES E 67.9 Euro/MWh CM management cost 0.4 Euro/MWh Grid 0.6 Euro /MWh Grid losses 0.5 Euro /MWh Environmental 9.0 Euro /MWh Socioeconomic 1.9 Euro /MWh Policy and Energy Policy Direct costs c.a Euro/MWh Net indirect benefits c.a 10 Euro/MWh CM costs for the Host country 58 Euro/ MWh

20 Evaluation of the maximal compensation price which may be offered by the User country within the CM, considering the indigenous off shore wind alternative to CM Costs for Offshore wind Power Generation in NL Average 150 Euro/MWh Revenue from NL grey market 64.7 Euro/MWh Support for the green power 85.3 Euro/MWh Grid 8.9 Euro /MWh Environmental 12 Euro/MWh Socio economic 0 Euro/MWh Policy and Energy Policy Direct costs 85.3 Euro/MWh Net indirect benefits 0 3 Euro/MWh Costs for the User country c.a Euro/ MWh

21 Time track of the projects within the Cooperation Mechanism Preparation of the support scheme Projects commissioning Projects operation for User 2020 target (first 10 years/project) Projects operation for User or Host 2030 target (last 10 years/project) target 2030 target

22 Benefits/Challenges of CM Benefits of the Cooperation For Romania: More renewables in the energy mix, with less fluctuating impact Chance to exploit large biomass resources that would otherwise remain unused The opportunity to deploy modern biomass technologies Significant indirect benefits from the investments 280 MW millions Euro Cooperation could be extended to cover also the electricity related to a possible surplus of Green Certificates Keeps a financial support for RES projects also after the year 2016 For Netherlands: Savings of c.a. 2.1 ct/kwh in comparison to the indigenous offshore wind production The possibility to engage in a relatively small and flexible (hence low-risk) cooperation. What could be the barriers for cooperation? The Romanian distribution grid ( 20 kv, 110 kv) should be able to handle 280 MW There may be some uncertainties about the reliability of the grid; Issues related to sustainability and possible fluctuations of raw biomass prices; Uncertainty on 2020 target non-compliance and on post-2020 policy in EU

23 The Management of biomass projects registered for the cooperation and their output could be organized in Romania starting from the good existing institutional and methodological experience on Green Certificate procedures

24 Now the results of the RES4LESS project and the biomass case study are available and may serve as basic information to decisional bodies and other stakeholders for comments and discussions.

25 More info: Project website: Newsletter registration on the website Stakeholders consultation workshop in Bucharest - October 2012 Contact ENERO, c.tantareanu@enero.ro; office@enero.ro Thank you!