Formation of Electricity Prices

Transcription

1 Formation of Electricity Prices Charlotte Loreck Energy and Climate Division Öko-Institut e.v. Berlin for Heinrich Böll Foundation, Prague 15 May 213

2 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 2

3 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 3

4 Consumer price for electricity Germany ,6 ct /kwh taxes; 6,21 electricity procurement; 6,26 concession levy; 1,66 sale; 2,13 surcharge CHP;,2 surcharge RES; 3,59 grid charges; 6,4 surcharge 19 grid charges regulation;,15 Source: Federal Network Agency, own figure 4

5 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 5

6 Short Term Marginal Costs in /MWh Merit order of power plants Renewable Energies Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Natural Gas Oil Demand price Capacity in MW

7 Short Term Marginal Costs in /MWh Merit order without nuclear Renewable Energies Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Natural Gas Oil Demand price Capacity in MW 7

8 Short Term Marginal Costs in /MWh Merit order with more RES Renewable Energies Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Natural Gas Oil Demand price Capacity in MW 8

9 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 9

10 EUR/MWh Historic Power Prices Germany, Czech Republic Phelix Base Power Y+1 CZ Base Power Y

11 EUR/MWh(NCV) EUR/EUA Historic Prices (Fuel, CO 2, Base Power ) Phelix Base Power Y+1 CZ Base Power Y+1 Coal Y+1 (Plant Gate) Gas Y+1 (Plant Gate) EUA Y

12 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 12

13 Consumer price for electricity Germany ,6 ct /kwh taxes; 6,21 electricity procurement; 6,26 concession levy; 1,66 sale; 2,13 surcharge CHP;,2 surcharge RES; 3,59 grid charges; 6,4 surcharge 19 grid charges regulation;,15 Source: Federal Network Agency, own figure 13

14 Feed-in tariff for RES Renewable Energies Act: guaranteed and priorised feed-in guaranteed payment 14

15 RES-costs and whole sale market demand supply curve of conventional power plants differential costs are reallocated to all consumers = RES surcharge guaranteed feed-in tariff electricity price proceeds for TSOs of RES-sale RES-electricity production MWh 15

16 ct/kwh Development of the RES-surcharge 6, 5,3 5, 4, 3,5 3,6 + 1,7 ct/kwh 3, 2, 2, 1,,

17 RES-surcharge: difference Contributions of the most important factors influencing the increase of the German EEG surcharge in 213 (5,3 ct / kwh) compared to 212 (3,6 ct / kwh) 1.68 ct/kwh overall.2.1 Hydro Biomass Onshore wind.21 Offshore wind Solar.5 Expansion of privilege Equalisation of balance Liquidity reserve Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut.12 Other 17

18 Agenda Consumer price for electricity Price Formation at the Whole Sale Market Historic Prices and Explanation patterns Surcharge for RES Special analysis for future solar costs 18

19 GW Development of renewable capacities in Germany Geothermal Photovoltaics Biogenic waste Biomass Wind Hydro 25, 32,6 1,7 1,7 5,5 5,9 2 29,1 31,3 1 4,4 4,4 19 Source: AG EEStat; own figure

20 TWh Development of renewable electricity production in Germany Geothermal Photovoltaics Biogenic waste Biomass Wind Hydro 28, 19,3 4,8 4,9 32,8 36, ,9 46, 2 17,7 21,2 2 Source: AG EEStat; own figure

21 Jan 212 Mar 212 May 212 Jul 212 Sep 212 Nov 212 Jan 213 Mar 213 May 213 Jul 213 Sep 213 Nov 213 Jan 214 Mar 214 May 214 Jul 214 Sep 214 Nov 214 Jan 215 Mar 215 May 215 ct / kwh Decrease of future feed-in tariff for solar (for continuing future installation like today) <=1 kwp <=4 kwp <=1 kwp <=1 kwp >1 kwp Source: EEG, Calculations by Oeko-Institut

22 Electricity production (TWh) Future solar electricity production 6 in the years 212 bis 216 sorted by construction years of plants ,9 3,2 6,2 3,2 6,2 6,2 3, 6, 6, 6, 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,3 new solar: 37% 215er 214er 213er 212er <= ,8 23,8 23,8 23,8 23,8 old solar: 63% Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut 22

23 Yearly feed-in payments (bn. ) Future costs for solar electricity 14 in the years 212 bis 216 sorted by construction years of plants 12,2,4,4,6,6,4,7,7,7 new solar: 14% 1,7 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 old solar: 86% ,6 9,6 9,6 9,6 9,6 215er 214er 213er 212er <= Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut 23

24 Part of surcharge for PV (ct / kwh) Future share of RES surcharge for solar electricity 3, in the years 212 bis 216 sorted by construction years of plants 2,5,14,2,3,5,6,6,6,1,1,1,23,22,22,22 new solar:,19 ct /kwh 2, old solar: 2,48 ct /kwh 215er 214er 1,5 213er 212er 1, 2,26 2,26 2,26 2,26 2,26 <=211,5, Source: Calculations by Oeko-Institut 24

25 Summary Consumer prices have different components Whole sale market is based on merit order of power plants and their short term marginal costs Whole sale market prices are in decrease in Germany and the Czech Republic German RES surcharge is the difference between garantueed feed-in-tariff payments and revenues from wholesale market Decrease of solar feed-in tariff was neccessary (and a bit late) But: future solar in Germany will not increase surcharge substantially anymore 25

26 Thank you! 26