Eneco s vision on energy transition, government policy, and SER treaty
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1 Dutch Oil & Gas Conference, Eneco s vision on energy transition, government policy, and SER treaty Kees-Jan Rameau
2 Agenda Vision for energy transition Case for change Our position in SER process
3 Eneco s vision for energy transition 3... Trend is both desirable and inevitable
4 Growth drivers for sustainable energy Security of supply Combatting pollution/ global warming Value Added for national economy Volatile fossil prices and declining renewable energy prices 4...
5 Globally, clean energy is booming 300 Global investments in renewable energy (bln USD) CAGR 1) is over 25% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Include corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include processed from acquisition transactions 1) CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate (average % year-on-year growth) 5...
6 Declining costs for sustainable technologies example solar PV Learning curve: solar PV installed Capital cost 2004 /W ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity installed MW Sources: Worldwatch Institute; IEA; BTM consult; ABS; NREL; IIIEE; ABI; Drewry 2007; UC Berkeley ERG; Navigant consulting; annual reports; team analysis. Capital IQ 6...
7 Similar trend for wind, not for biomass Cost expectation for electricity from wind and biomass ( ct. / kwh) Wind on sea Biomass Wind on land Source: CE-Delft 2013, wind on land: ECN 2013, wind on sea: PlanLeeghwater 7...
8 New business models for Eneco Toon (smart thermostat) ESCO s (Energy Saving Company) Installation/maintenance (e.g. solar PV, heat pumps) Supporting local energy collectives 8...
9 Agenda Vision for energy transition Case for change Our position in SER process
10 Netherlands lags behind Renewable Energy Production as % of energy demand Luxembourg Netherlands Belgium Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Germany Spain Target 2020 Achieved 2010 Lithuania Denmark Estonia Austria Latvia EU-27 Source eurostat ,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,
11 and misses business opportunities Source: Roland Berger 11...
12 Ambitious clean energy policy creates jobs Employment in the Netherlands (FTE) Fte energy efficiency Fte renewable energy Current 12% in % 2020 Source: Ecorys, Feb
13 Inconsistent Dutch energy policies Renewable energy target 30% 20% 10% Tax discount MEP subsidy SDE subsidy SDE+ subsidy 9% in % in % in % in 2020 Back to 14% in 2020???? 0% after SER? Changing incentive systems, changing ambitions Long licence procedures for projects Failing ETS no fair price for polluting 13...
14 EU policy cornerstone ETS is failing ETS Price (euro/ton CO 2 )
15 NL power generation mix: coal is growing 120 Power Generation Mix TWh, Netherlands Wind offshore Wind onshore Biomass dedicated Biomass cofiring Coal Gas Nuclear (cofiring cap) Source: Eneco, CERA, McKinsey 15...
16 Higher CO2 price would shift coal back to gas 80 Dutch power generation in 2015 (coal, gas, imports only) in TWh Coal Nat. Gas Import /tonne 32 /tonne Source: SQ consult 2012; at existing coal tax of 13,73 euro per ton coal 16...
17 Subsidizing cofiring of biomass in coal plants increases emissions vs. gas plants CO 2 emissions in ton per MWh 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 With 20% cofiring 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Modern gas Modern coal Old coal 17...
18 Agenda Vision for energy transition Case for change Our position in SER process
19 Government policy: 3 target areas Renewable energy CO 2 reduction Energy efficiency 19...
20 Eneco view - CO 2 emission reduction % emission reduction Lower ETS ceiling by 2,5% p.a. EU pricefloor of 40 for CO2, or national/pentalateral policy Close old coal plants (2500 MW) Standards for emissions/kwh Cofiring biomass: no life extension of old plants sustainability standards biomass subsidies for efficient use only
21 Eneco view - renewable energy Focus on long term, not just separate budget for wind; cap on cofiring - focus on technologies with low-cost potential Subsidies are necessary in absence of effective CO 2 price Choose a policy, stick to it Level playing field fossil versus renewable
22 Eneco view - energy efficiency (Fiscal) incentives for energy labels for houses Enforcement of efficiency measures; Mandatory efficiency Create energy awareness and influence behaviour Revolving fund for cheap renovation loans (repaid through energy bill) 22...
23 Eneco view decentral clean energy Local clean energy: huge portential solar-pv, heat pumps, solar boilers Support energy cooperations, e.g. reduced energy tax Allow participation of communities in local renewable production Roll out smart grids, smart meters; Real-time pricing for consumers 23...
24 Added value of SER vs regeerakkoord Create broad support for long term incentive schemes for clean energy Use subsidies only for structural solutions with best long-term cost reduction potential Stimulate local energy solutions Stimulate CO 2 measures at EU level, or alternatively at national / pentalateral level Create efficiency targets, obligations and incentives 24...
25 Thank you
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