Published 2Q Euan Sadden Research Analyst. Kerry-Ann Adamson Research Director

Transcription

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Fuel Cells for Portable Portable Electronics, External Battery Chargers, Remote Monitoring, and Military Applications: Market Analysis and Forecasts NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com Published 2Q 2011 Euan Sadden Research Analyst Kerry-Ann Adamson Research Director

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction: Portable Fuel Cells New applications for portable fuel cell technologies continue to be realized across a host of new market sectors. In recent years, fuel cell manufacturers and electronics companies and distributors have sought to demonstrate their respective technologies across these new applications in preparation for large-scale commercialization and development. The key points to keep in mind regarding portable fuel cells include: The consumer electronics market remains one of enormous potential for portable fuel cells. High-end and miniaturized products such as smartphones and media tablets represent potentially outstanding high-end applications for portable fuel cells. The high energy density afforded by fuel cells suggests that these technologies will become integral to future incarnations of these products. New niche markets, such as environmental remote monitoring, have also been recognized as markets of significant potential. Fuel cells offer substantial benefits over conventional diesel generators, including lower maintenance costs and longer endurance. The depth and breadth of this rapidly expanding market suggest that it will be essential to the growth of the portable fuel cell sector in the near future. Markets for portable fuel cell generators continue to develop at a very slow rate across the portable generator markets in general. However, portable fuel cell generators are establishing a specialized role in niche markets, particularly as power supplies for outdoor music and arts festivals. Military man-portable applications such as remote monitoring/sensing and mobile soldier power remain a strong area of focus for fuel cell developers. A regular stream of military demonstrations and testing is taking place. In pursuing these applications and markets, fuel cell technologies have demonstrated real-world advantages over conventional solutions such as batteries, diesel generators, and solar-powered systems. Consider the following: Batteries are known for their high power density, which means that they have no problem covering brief current peaks. Yet, due to their low energy density, they are not appropriate for supplying power over long periods because they have to be regularly replaced or laboriously recharged. Generators combine power density with energy density, but they also produce harmful exhaust emissions and noise. In addition, it is difficult to adapt their output for low to medium power levels. A solar-powered system, in contrast, generates electricity without ancillary costs when there is enough available sunlight. But it is practically useless in bad weather or without intensive direct sunlight, as its output depends strongly on the time of day, season, and/or local conditions. Solar cells are also clearly visible where they are installed, which is undesirable in many cases (e.g., due to vandalism). 1

3 Fuel cells have the ability to overcome the weaknesses of these solutions. Ideally, a hybrid operation combining fuel cells with batteries and/or solar modules can be both a backup power solution and a solution to overcome long runtime requirements. Electricity from fuel cells can be used at all times and in every location. The power generation is quiet, produces fewer emissions than conventional fossil fuels, and can operate independent of weather conditions. Despite these advantages, though, large barriers remain with respect to the capacity of the fuel cell supply chain and associated manufacturing costs. Adopting universal industry standards for components and systems will help alleviate these costs in the coming years. Additionally, the role of the large Japanese and Korean electronics corporations in boosting manufacturing capacity and integrating fuel cell technologies into their products is recognized as critical for the industry going forward. 1.2 Portable Fuel Cell Sector Forecast Pike Research s forecast suggests a favorable outlook for the portable fuel cell technology applications profiled within this report. Overall, these applications are projected to reach annual revenue of $2.8 billion by The portable fuel cell industry is expected to benefit from a number of very high growth industries, particularly remote monitoring applications, which will likely account for the vast majority of market revenue through As discussed above, fuel cells provide significant advantages over conventional monitoring technologies such as diesel generators. A positive outlook for the global remote monitoring market will further enhance the growth of portable fuel cells. Chart 1.1 Portable Fuel Cell Revenue by Application Group, World Markets: $3,000 Military ($ Millions) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 Remote Monitoring Internal Fuel Cell for Portable Electronics External Battery Charger $1,000 $500 $ (Source: Pike Research) The large majority of the global portable fuel cell sector is found in North America, followed by Asia Pacific and Europe. By 2017, however, based on the success of the remote monitoring industry and the integration of fuel cells into the portable electronics industry, Pike Research expects to see European and Asian companies assuming a more leading 2

4 role within the global portable fuel cell market. This trend is to be aided by the exhaustion of U.S. government stimulus funding within the next decade. Overall, though, lucrative opportunities exist for companies across a range of fuel cell markets. New applications continue to come to the fore while proven applications remain the subject of development and refinement among manufacturers and commercial entities. Global consumer and societal trends continue to support the growth of the global fuel cell market, and we expect to see strong growth across a range of new applications within the near future. Thus, the industry presents potentially profitable opportunities for new arrivals into the market. 3

5 Section 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary Introduction: Portable Fuel Cells Portable Fuel Cell Sector Forecast... 2 Section Market Issues Market Overview Market Definitions Portable Fuel Cells: Trends and Drivers Emissions Facts Consumer Preferences The Economic Advantage of Fuel Cells A Safe Technology Policies and Funding The DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of Recovery Act Projects Funded for the Portable Fuel Cell Market Transformation Military Drivers Military Funding DARPA SBIR and STTR U.S. Navy U.S. Army U.S. Air Force Consumer Electronics Market Overview Digital Cameras Market Overview Market Size Pricing Major Stakeholders Fuel Cell Activities Smartphones Market Overview Market Size Pricing Market Stakeholders Fuel Cell Activities Tablet PCs Market Overview Market Size Pricing Market Stakeholders Fuel Cell Developments Laptop Computers Market Overview Market Size

6 Pricing Major Stakeholders Fuel Cell Developments Remote Monitoring Introduction Market Size Pricing Market Stakeholders Fuel Cell Developments Military Applications Introduction Portable Soldier Power Remote Monitoring/Sensors Market Overview Market Size Pricing Fuel Cell Developments Market Stakeholders Mobile Soldier Power Market Overview Market Size Pricing Mobile Soldier Power Fuel Cell Developments Additional Applications Portable Power Generation Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Beyond 2017: Additional Applications Portable Power Generation Cordless Power Tools Summary Section Technology Issues Technology Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell Methanol Units Direct and Indirect/Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Market Barriers Financial Cost Integration Supply Chain Stack Manufacturing Component Standards Vertical Integration Adequacy of Maintenance Resources and Serviceability Availability and Reliability of Delivery Support Infrastructure Fuel Availability Batteries versus Fuel Cells Pricing Materials Military Barriers The Gap between Products and Prototypes Section Market Forecasts

7 4.1 Introduction Portable Fuel Cell Unit Shipments by Application External Fuel Cell Battery Chargers Internal Fuel Cells Remote Monitoring Military Portable Fuel Cell Shipments: Megawatts Portable Fuel Cell Shipments by Revenue Portable Fuel Cell Shipments by Region Summary Section Key Industry Players Adaptive Materials, Inc Akermin Aquafairy Co Ballard Power Systems Inc Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Corp. (DMFCC) Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies (HFCT) Hydrogenics Corp IdaTech PLC Jadoo Power Lilliputian Systems MTI Microfuel Cells Inc myfc NanoDynamics Neah Power Systems, Inc Nedstack Oorja Protonics Protonex Technology Corp Sandpiper Technologies SFC Energy Trulite, Inc UltraCell Corp Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

8 Section 9 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Portable Fuel Cell Revenue by Application Group, World Markets: Chart 2.1 Smartphone Component Cost (2010)... 8 Chart 2.2 Profit Margins on Four Smartphones: Chart 2.3 iphone Profit vs. Fuel Cell Cost: Chart 4.1 Portable Fuel Cell Shipments by Application Group, World Markets: Chart 4.2 External Fuel Cell Battery Charger Shipments for Portable Electronics, World Markets: Chart 4.3 Internal Fuel Cell Shipments for Portable Electronics, World Markets: Chart 4.4 Portable Fuel Cell Shipments for Remote Monitoring, World Markets: Chart 4.5 Portable Fuel Cell Shipments for Military Applications, World Markets: Chart 4.6 Portable Fuel Cell Megawatts Shipped by Application, World Markets: Chart 4.7 Portable Fuel Cell Revenue by Application Group, World Markets: Chart 4.8 Portable Fuel Cell Shipments by Region, World Markets: Chart 4.9 Portable Fuel Cell Shipments by Region, World Markets: Figure 2.1 Fuel Cell Funding Under ARRA Table 2.1 U.S. Army Research Laboratory Demonstration Summary: Average Data Point for the Startup Time (20 Minutes)... 6 Table 2.2 ARRA 2009 Tax Credits

9 Section 10 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide interested stakeholders with an analytical overview of the portable fuel cell sector. In brief, the study examines fuel cell applications for the consumer and military portable fuel cell markets. The report s purpose is not to present an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies. Rather, it aims to offer a strategic assessment of current market positioning and issues that the industry is facing. The study also provides a projection of the portable fuel cell sector under business-as-usual scenarios and reviews the main technology types and information from key companies. Pike Research endeavors to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are covered and the forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders, including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 73

10 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2011 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 74

11 Published 2Q Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC ( Pike ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication. 75