The négawatt Scenario for France

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The négawatt Scenario for France 2017-2050 Energy transition through sufficiency, efficiency and renewables Christian

1 The négawatt Scenario for France Energy transition through sufficiency, efficiency and renewables Christian COUTURIER Association négawatt 27/06/2017 AgroParisTech Paris With support of Fondation Charles Léopold Mayer pour le progrès de l Homme

2 Who are we? Created in 2001 by a bunch of experts and field-practitioners of energy Goals : Sustainable energy scenarios Elaboration of sustainable strategies Lobbying at national level Proposals for energy policies A core of around 25 companions + 25 ambassadors Over 1000 members Created in 2009 Subsidiary and operational branch of the association 2

3 The negawatt scenario Global approach Demand and supply Energy balance and overall impacts

Sufficiency Priori&ze energy end-uses in terms of

4 A change of paradigm 3. Subs=tu=on Develop flow-based renewables to replace stock-based fissile and fossils 2. Efficiency Reduce the losses, i.e. the need of primary ressources to serve end-uses 1. Sufficiency Priori&ze energy end-uses in terms of individual/collec&ve energy services Production losses Transport and distribution losses Consumption losses Primary Energy Energy Carriers Final Energy Energy Services Primary Energy SUPPLY DEMAND 4

5 The negawatt approach Prioritize the needs for energy services Reduce the amount of energy consumed to satisfy a given need of services Substitute renewables to fossil fuels and nuclear Production Energy demand 5

6 Careful introduction of innovation A trajectory that is robust without the need of hypothetical technological ruptures but open to innovations, based on their current level of maturity / readiness Readiness of new technologies Technological (TRL) Industrial (MRL) Environnemental and social (ESRL) 7 System demonstration Prototype in operational conditions Modelisation of generic impacts 8 Validation by tests and demonstrations Development and demonstration of complete real scale system Impact assessment based on real data of a prototype 9 Proven real system through successful operations Implementation and manufacturing of system Systemic and multi-scale assessment 10 Optimized system Full scale production Impacts measured through real operation 11 Massive deployment, integration to the system Social and environmental acceptability, indirect effects measured 6

7 Energy demand Buildings: residential and tertiary Transports Industry and raw materials Agriculture and food

8 France: a constantly revised trend ( tendanciel ) Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nw scenario) Tendanciel Tendanciel nw Scénario nw 500 Réel

9 France: a constantly revised trend ( tendanciel ) Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nw scenario) Tendanciel 2006 Tendanciel Tendanciel nw Scénario nw nw Réel 9

10 France: a constantly revised trend ( tendanciel ) Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nw scenario) Tendanciel 2011 Tendanciel 2003 Tendanciel 2006 Tendanciel nw Scénario nw nw 2006 nw Réel 10

11 France: a constantly revised trend ( tendanciel ) Final energy consumption in France (past / trend and nw scenario) Tendanciel Scénario nw Tendanciel 2003 Tendanciel 2006 Tendanciel 2011 Tendanciel 2016 nw 2003 nw 2006 nw 2011 nw Réel 11

12 Results Final energy consumption by sector TWh 2000 Sobriété Sufficiency TWh -512 TWh Efficiency Efficacité (demand) (demande) Transports Transports TWh -338 TWh 225 TWh Résidentieltertiaire Agriculture Buildings Industrie Industry TWh 341 TWh Tendanciel Trend TWh 387 TWh 183 TWh Scénario négawatt nw 12

13 Energy supply Bioenergy Electric renewables Nuclear power and fossil fuels Energy carriers and grids

14 Results Primary energy Reducing consumption is key to allow for developing renewables to come in substitution, rather than in addition -66% >99% Sufficiency Efficiency (demand) Efficiency (supply) Other renewables Biomass Electric renewables Nuclear Oil Fossil gas Coal négawatt Trend 14

15 Competition or synergies: the «hexalemma» of land and biomass use A new balance between the main uses of land and biomass * * Foresta (VII Siècle) : «territoire soustrait à l'usage général» ; «terrain sur lequel on a prononcé un ban, une proscription de culture, d'habitation» 15

16 Afterres2050 Comprehensive report available onhttp://afterres2050.solagro.org 16

Energy fluxes from agriculture (final use) Total = primary energy content of all agricultural biomass Alimenta&on Human food humaine ANerres Actuel Exporta&ons Exports Energie Energy et and matériaux

17 Energy fluxes from agriculture (final use) Total = primary energy content of all agricultural biomass Alimenta&on Human food humaine ANerres Actuel Exporta&ons Exports Energie Energy et and matériaux materials Pertes Losses élevage by animals (métabolisme metabolism animaux) Organic mawer on the soils Apports aux sols C stable (stable C) PJ Apports Organic aux mawer sols on C labile the soils (labile C) Destination finale des flux d énergie primaire (via la photosynthèse) en PJ / an France métropolitaine 17

18 2 à 5 less impacts Methane and N % Energy consumption -4O% Synthetic nitrogen consumption -6O% Phytosanitary consumption -7O% Irrigation in summer -8O% Ammonia emissions -7O% Land artificialisation -5O% 18

19 Agricultural resilients systems and producers of biodiversity 19

20 420 TWh of bioenergy Algues Cultures annuelles Herbes et cultures fourragères Cultures intermédiaires Biodéchets DéjecAons d'élevage Résidus de culture Dérivés du bois Produits connexes Bois hors forêt Bois forêt No dedicated cultures for bioenergy No competition with other uses TWh PCs

21 420 TWh of bioenergy TWh Biogaz Biogas Biomasse Liquid biomass liquide Biomasse Solid biomass solide

22 Gas carrier in 2050 Fossil gas 0 TWh Gas carrier 260 TWh Stationnary fuel 80 TWh Methanation 90 TWh Vehicle fuel 180 TWh Solide biomass 250 -> 70 TWh Power sector Biogas 130 -> 100 TWh 22

23 Impacts and benefits GreenHouse Gases Air quality Energy poverty Costs and employment

24 Greenhouse gas emissions in négawatt scenario 500 MteqCO Others Autres gaz NN2O 2 O CH CH4 4 CO CO

25 Carbon neutrality by 2050 MteqCO Raw Emission GHG tous emissions GES Carbon Stockage capture forêts by et prairies lands Net Emissions GHG emissions nettes Evolution of raw and net GHG emissions by

26 Energy transition saves costs on the long term Billion Scénario négawatt négawatt scenario Scénario Trend scenario tendanciel Economies Net savings nettes Total energy related expenses 26

27 A clear positive impact on jobs Jobs (full =me equivalent) emploi net total emploi brut bâ&ment emploi brut renouvelables emploi brut répara&on effet induit emploi brut informa&on emploi brut efficacité appareils emploi brut énergie non renouvelable & réseaux emploi brut transports jobs in 2020, in 2030, in 2050 compared to the trend scenario 27

28 07. Conclusion

29 Energy transition, a project of society Energy transition is a response to the unsustainability of the energy system Energy sufficiency and efficiency can cut half of our final energy consumption by 2050 This is enough for allowing a realistic development of mixed renewable energies to meet 100% of our needs This could make France carbon neutral by 2050, in compliance with its shared responsibility as party to the Paris Agreement It brings a lot of additional environmental, social and economic benefits 29

30 Questions for the science What are the priority research needs for the next 10 years? Level 10 of TRL : process optimization Level 11 of MRL : massive deployment, system integration Which tools for research and development are lacking today? ESRL scale More systemic approach Which types of partnerships are necessary for the development of bioeconomy? Which new stakeholders? Governance of soils / biomass / landscape as commons Find new ways on how to manage the stakeholders community 30

31 What are the priority research needs for the next 10 years? Level 10 of TRL : process optimization Level 11 of MRL : massive deployment, system integration Which tools for research and development are lacking today? ESRL scale More systemic approach Which types of partnerships are necessary for the development of bioeconomy? Which new stakeholders? 031 Governance of soils / biomass / landscape as commons Find new ways on how to manage the stakeholders community

32 Pour aller plus loin Rapport de synthèse du scénario Deux ouvrages Graphiques dynamiques Vidéos Revue de presse Recevoir nos actualités Les réponses aux idées reçues sur la transition énergétique 32

33 Thank you for your attention! Rendre possible ce qui est souhaitable

The négawatt Approach & Scenario

The négawatt Approach & Scenario Energy transition through sufficiency, efficiency and renewables Marc JEDLICZKA Association négawatt 21/08/2017 INFORSE/FolkeCenter-DENMARK With support of Fondation Charles