Professor NTNU. Science and Technology. Centre for Environmental Design of Renewable Energy. Introduction to Workshop 2

Transcription

1 Ånund Killingtveit Professor NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Centre for Environmental Design of Renewable Energy Introduction to Workshop 2

2 Workshop 2 Introduction ti Water resources planning to address future operational challenges for hydropower or Climate Change and Hydropower in Africa

3 Workshop lecturers Ånund Killingtveit Professor Byman Hamududu MSc/PhD fellow Emmanuel Jjunju MSc/PhD fellow Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

4 Workshop program Hydrological risk for hydropower due to climate change by Ånund Killingtveit Overview of research on Climate Change in Africa by Emmanuel Jjunju Methodology for assessing impact on Hydropower by Byman Hamududu Break (15 min) Case studies (Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Ethiopia) Summary and discussion

5 A brief presentation ti of NTNU and CEDREN NTNU is a leading institution for education and research on Hydropower in Norway, including planning, construction and operation of hydropower plants. Education is given on MSc level both in Civil, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering g Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering responsible for Civil Eng. NTNU also offers a 2yr International MSc program in Hydropower Development > 50 MSc students from Africa have been trained here last 15 years Most research in now organized as PhD research > 10 PhD students from Africa within area of Hydrology and Hydropower A new research centre called CEDREN was created in 2009 for research on Environmental Friendly Renewable Energy where Sustainable Hydropower Development for mitigation of CC is one of the main research topics

6 Norways second largest university. 7 faculties 53 Departments students 2700 employed 560 Professors Main responsibility for MSc Engineering program Main responsibility for Hydropower education and research in Norway Over 30 International MSc programs, also MSc program in Hydropower Development Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

7 Research group - Hydraulic Engineering Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Professor Ånund Killingtveit Professor Nils Reidar B. Olsen Professor Knut Alfredsen Professor Leif Lia Associate Professor Nils Ruther Associate Professor Kiflom Belete Professor II Grethe Holm Midttømme Professor II Haakon Støle Professor II NN Ca 20 PhD and ca 30 MSc students Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

8 8 Centre for environmental design of renewable energy CEDREN

9 9 CEDREN slogan

10 Some examples of CEDREN research Optimal integration Wind Hydropower Hydropower balancing wind power Pumped storage for wind energy storage Technology Environment in rivers Wind power - Birds Power lines

11 Some examples of NTNU R&D in Africa Water Balance Lake Victoria PhD Research by Ethiopian (1 PhD, Makarere Univ.) students (6 at NTNU) Hydropower and Climate Change in Africa (2 PhD, NTNU) Zambezi River Action Plan Hydrology & Database (Consulting, with Norconsult) Flood warning system in Malawi (Consulting, with OCEANOR) Lake Malawi Level Control Modelling and Training (Consulting, with Norconsult) MSc program Renewable Energy East Africa UDSM and Makarere Univ. MSc program Water Management at UDSM Pangani Basin Research (>10 years, 1 PhD NTNU, 2 at UDSM) MSc students in HPD (>50 from Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, )

12 Hydropower risk assessment Hydropower planning faces many type of risks Hydrological risk is one of the most important During planning we strive to get best the possible information about available water resources Still surprises may show up during operation How certain can we be about the future? Will our assessment be valid in 20 years, 50 years,?

13 Hydrological lrisk traditional approach Risk is exposure to an undesireable event Traditionally, risk analysis in hydrology uses observed hydrological data (flow) to analyze the probability for undesired events (floods, droughts, power shortage ) It is than assumed that hydrological conditions in the future will be similar il as in the observation period assuming Stationarity This may no longer be true

14 Hydrological l risk under non-stationarity ti it The assumption of Stationarity is no longer guaranteed There are two main possible reasons for this: Land use changes Climate change Land use change could be due to deforestation, afforestation, urbanization, introduction of irrigation etc Climate change is becoming increasingly more probable and could lead to large changes in Hydrology

15 Climate Change and Hydrology A future Climate Change (CC) as predicted by IPCC could lead to changes in Temperature and Precipitation and thereby also in Hydrology So CC will have impact on Hydrology and thereby on Hydropower projects both existing and planned Consequences on Hydrology could be changes in: Runoff volume (increasing or decreasing) Runoff seasonality (better or worse compared to demand) Frequency of Floods/Droughts (increased frequency of extremes) Sediment generation and sediment transport

16 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global warming of 2-6 o C in 100 yrs

17 Predictions are based on analysis by Global Climate Models (GCM) General Circulation Model (GCM) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM)

18 Emission Scenarios defines the input Emission Scenarios defines the input of Greenhouse gases (CO 2 etc) into CGMs

19 GCMs are very powerful tools but also has limitations re. prediction Different Emission Scenarios gives varying results Different models gives varying results Results are valid on a large scale only What happens to flow and hydropower in my river? How can we move from Global til Local Scale?

20 The process needed to study local effects on Hydropower resources in a river Emission i Scenarios Global AOGCM model Downscaling models Hydrological model Hydropower model Effects on Hydropower

21 Some examples from Norway Typical GCM grid

22 Temperature and Precipitation change by 2100

23 Energy inflow in Norway today and in the future gy y y - computed by hydropower simulation models

24 Summary and conclusions from studies of Climate Change and hydropower in Norway Increasing precipitation p and runoff gives more water More water leads to higher energy production Milder winters gives more winter runoff Milder winters also means less consumption In general - improved conditions for hydropower