Lake Nasser Risk Management, Integration With Climate Change Uncertainty and Flooding Risks

Transcription

1 Lake Nasser Risk Management, Integration With Climate Change Uncertainty and Flooding Risks BY Dr. Mohamed Abdel Aty Sayed Manager-Nile Forecast Center Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt World Water Forum, Mexico 21/3/2006

2 Presentation Outline The Nile Basin and Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Flows Importance of High Aswan Dam to Egypt Impacts of CC on the Freq. of Flds.. and Drts. Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Conclusions and Recommendations

3 Climate Related Disasters Historical climate-related disasters, world (from CRED EM-DAT data)

4 Global Warming Average Average

5 The Nile Basin Ten Riparian: Burundi D.R. Congo Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda Problems and Challenges: civil wars lack of infrastructures high illiteracy rates low economic growth health problems rapid population growth low utilization of its resources Scarce data records

6 The Nile Basin (cont.) ITCZ for January ITCZ for April ITCZ for November ITCZ for July Annual Progression of ITCZ Figure 2.4: Annual Progression of ITCZ and Surface Winds Over Africa (Adopted from: Dhonneur, 1974) Over the Nile

7 Impacts of Global Warming on the Nile Precipitation Period Deim Malakal Blue & White Nile Flow Diff % Flow Diff % Flow Diff % Before

8 Impacts of Global Warming on the Nile Precipitation Emission scenarios Future state 1 Current state Driving forces Attracting and repelling forces Future state 2 Sideswipes Future state 3 Past Present Future

9 Impacts of Global Warming on the Nile Precipitation A2 IPCC to +5.8 C IS92e IS92c B2 IPCC to +3.5 C IPCC I, 2001

10 Impacts of Global Warming on the Nile Precipitation SRES emission scenarios Globalisation Economic Golden Age A1 Balanced A1 Fossil A1 Technology Sustainable development B1 Emphasis on material wealth A2 Emphasis on sustainability and equity B2 Regional solutions Cultural diversity Regionalisation

11 Impacts of Global Warming on The Nile Precipitation Summary The Expected Change in Precipitation Over the Blue Nile Till Year 2030 Will Range From 2.15% to 10.65% and Over the White Nile Basin Will Range From 0.61% to 8%. Over the Whole Nile, the Range of Temperature Changes Ranges From 0.21 to 0.82 Degrees at the Highest, While the Precipitation Changes Ranges From 1.43% to 9.94% at the Highest.

12 Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Flows The NFS Hydrologic Model Historical Precipitation Extended Stream Flow Prediction (ESP) ESP Analysis Satellite and Rain Gauge Precipitation Techniques Modified State Variables Run Models Observed Flow Assimilator Gridded Precipitation State Variables Reach Routing Channel Routing Hill Slope Water Balance Reservoir Routing Swamp Model Simulated Flow Time Series White Nile Stochastic Model e.g. soil moisture deficit, channel flow, hill slope flow Gridded Outputs

13 Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Flows Hydrological Elasticity of Different Sub Catchments on the Nile Basin Change in Precipitation -10% 10% -25% 25% -50% 50% Average Elasticity Dongala Atbara Khartoum (BN) Khartoum (all) Diem Malakal Mongola Jinja

14 Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Flows Impact of Spatial Precipitation Change on the Inflow to Dongola Change on The Blue Nile Basin % of Precipitation Change 10% +10% % of Flow Change -23% 28% Change on The White Nile Basin % of Precipitation Change 10% +10% % of Flow Change -9.2% 3.3%

15 The Impact of Climate Changes on The Operation of HAD HAD Complex -Brief Overview Installed Capacity: 2,100 MW Annual generation: 10,000 Gwh Spillway Turbines: 12 (Francis) * 175 MW Head: m Capacity: 162 km 3 Dead storage: 31 km 3 Live storage: 90 km 3 Room for flood: 41 km 3 Dam body Lake Nasser Hydropower station Length: 500 km Width (avg.): 12 km Max. Surface: 6500 km 2

16 The Impact of Climate Changes on The Operation of HAD HAD-Brief Overview (cont) Hydrological Characteristics Storage zone From level (m) To level (m) Storage (BCM) Accumulated storage (BCM) Dead storage Live storage Flood control Bottom Surcharge

17 Aswan High Dam Storage levels and Volumes رياني رياني 68 رياني رياني 72 - رياني 74 رياني رياني 78 - رياني 80 رياني رياني 84 رياني رياني 88 - رياني 90 رياني رياني 94 - رياني 96 رياني رياني 00 رياني- Level Volume 3 ) The Impact of Climate Changes on The Operation of HAD Benefits of High Aswan Dam Water Level Storage Volume Year

18 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change The Impact of Climate Changes on The Operation of HAD Probability Level of occurence (m) (%) Spillage (mcm/month) % 13% 56% Level Year Hmax Hmin Base Negative Scenario Impact Base Optimistic Positive Impact Scenario Positive Base Pesimistic Impact Scenario Scenario Negative Impact

19 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Vulnerability of the Egypt s Water Resources to Climate Change Vulnerability to climatic hazards as defined by Adger and Brooks (2002), to be a function of: Exposure to climatic hazard resulting from climate variability and change Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected by climate stimuli Adaptive capacity ability of a system to adjust and take opportunities upper estimate central estimate lower estimate Secure Not Flexible but Expensive current Year

20 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Vulnerability of the Egypt s Water Resources to Climate Change Base Scenario Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario Reliability Vulnerability Resilience Reliability, Vulnerability, The resilience, sustainability index

21 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Population & Water Share in Egypt Water share / cap Poplution Mill M3/cap Year 0

22 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

23 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions The Forecast based on El-Nino years data 120 Annual Natural Flow at Aswan 100 Annual Natural Flow Forecasted Observed Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

24 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Spillway Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

25 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

26 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Land use map used in combination with the inundation map to estimate flood damage cost Inundation map projected in the digital elevation model Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

27 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

28 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

29 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

30 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

31 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Local Actions Limited Traditional Resources River Nile BCM/yr LNFDCP scenario Rainfall 1.0 ~ 1.50 BCM/yr on the Northern Coast and Sinai. Deep groundwater ` 1.0 BCM/yr in Eastern, Western desert, Sinai and Northern Coast. Untraditional Resources Reuse of Agr. drainage water. Reuse of treated waste water. Shallow groundwater in the Valley and Delta. Desalinization of brackish and sea water. Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

32 Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Policy to Climate Change Legal/economic measures for Agriculture Sector: o o o Crop-specific land taxes (e.g. for rice & sugarcane). Crop production charges (per ton). for area violations, Regulation of the farmers quota. - Effluent fees - Subsidies. (water savings, leveling) - Taxes (water consumptive, pollutants). - Release constraints on the volume of rice imports. Adaptation Measures, Mechanisms

33 Mohamed Abdel Aty Sayed