What is driving the growth in China s emissions?

Transcription

1 What is driving the growth in China s emissions? Glen Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO) glen.peters@cicero.uio.no twitter.com/peters_glen

2 Fossil and Cement Emissions Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990 Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range)

3 Fossil and Cement Emissions Growth 2011 Emissions growth in 2011 was dominated by China China was responsible for 80% of the global emissions growth in 2011 For comparison, Germany emitted a total of 0.2PgC in 2011 Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

4 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%) The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%) Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

5 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita) World average per capita emissions in 2011 were 1.4tC/p China (1.8tC/p), United States (4.7tC/p), EU27 (2.0tC/p), India (0.5tC/p) Chinese per capita emissions are almost equal to the EU27, and 36% higher than the global average Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

6 WHAT IS THE UNCERTAINTY?

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8 Unharmonised emissions

9 Harmonised emissions Guan Provincial and Zhao are upper bounds EIA has filled the dip? Guan National is a lower bound

10 Harmonised emissions

11 Is the 2000 dip realistic?

12 Is the 2000 dip realistic? Independent Approach: GDP does not show drop around 2000

13 Is the 2000 dip realistic? 2000 dip likely unrealistic Satellite measurements of co-emitted species find no dip GDP shows no dip Explanation is restructuring in the coal sector and closing of small mines Small mines may have kept operating

14 Uncertainty Summary Important for consistent comparisons Based on model comparisons CO 2 uncertainty is 5% for 1σ Up to 7% for unhamonised comparisons Literature Zhao et al (detailed MC): ~5% for 1σ Most other literature 10% or higher Uncertainty in non-co 2 much higher

15 DRIVERS OF CHANGE

16 Increase in income (GDP) partially offset by gains in efficiency improvements What drives GDP?

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18 Urbanisation Important The lowest income quintile in urban areas is about the same as the highest income quintile in rural areas. Hypothesis: Urbanisation comes with increased income and this increases emissions

19 Share of CO 2 exported Causes of growth

20 Exports and Imports (2007)

21 Key Findings (2004): 6.2 GtCO 2 (23%) embodied in trade Annex B Consumption 1.6 GtCO 2 higher than Production (12%) OECD Consumption 2.1 GtCO 2 higher than Production (16%)

22 The increase in net import into Annex B countries was five times greater than the achieved emission reduction Equivalent to a 400% carbon leakage rate

23 Up to 30% of Chinese emissions embodied in exports Recent studies suggest this is too high Need to model processing trade separately Some studies suggest exported emissions are half the size Independent studies required for confirmation

24 Hot Spots Supply chain of clothing consumed in the UK Consumer Producers (supply chain) UK China WAP 277 / 6835 UK WAP 335 / India WAP 27 / 1077 China TEX 172 / 4414 China ELY China LEA 433 / / UK TEX 77 / 498 UK OTP 207 / 397 UK ELY 321 / India TEX 20 / 382 India CRP 41 / 158 India TRD 25 / 106 China TEX 69 / 1765 China ELY China CRP China WOL 697 / / / UK ELY 80 / 93 Most emissions occur in electricity production in China

25 Who gets the emissions? Who gets the income? Wearing Apparel GBR FRA NOR CHN IND GBR MAR FRA USA RUS DEU TUR ITA NOR BGD DNK SWE RoEU27 ROW

26 Who gets the emissions? Who gets the income? Wearing Apparel GBR FRA Agriculture Mining Food EI Mfg NonEI Mfg Transport Services Electricity NOR

27 Drivers of Change : Exports 50% of the growth in many years 2005-Current: Capital investments 30+% of growth in most years 70% of growth since 2005 Current-Future: A potential shift to consumption? May have significant implications for CO 2

28 FUTURE EMISSIONS

29 IEA World Energy Outlook 2000: Chinese emissions to be 18% of global total in 2020 Already over 25% in : [In 2030] Chinese emissions remain well below those of the USA 2006: China to pass US before : China had passed US already Future emissions are hard!

30 Business as Usual (RCP8.5)

31 2ºC pathway (RCP2.6) Radical mitigation required in ASIA (China)

32 Future Emissions ERI suggests peak in emissions by 2025 Current policies examples Lower 2005 CO 2 /GDP by 40-45% by 2020 Renewables: 15% by 2020 Increase 2005 forest cover by 40Mha by 2020 Restrict coal to 3.9 billion tonnes by 2015 WRI: About 350 coal plants in planning Significant inertia in the system

33 Emission intensity Based on Median harmonised emission estimate China constant price GDP (2005 RMB) Policy is following Business As Usual (BAU)

34 Restrict coal consumption 12th Five Year Plan for its coal industry Curb coal production and consumption at around 3.9 billion tons by 2015 Ambiguous what this means Very close to BAU

35 FUTURE DIRECTIONS

36 Future Directions Understanding uncertainty in Chinese statistics (monetary and emissions) Quantifying drivers of change Understanding future emission pathways Quantification of policy options

37 Thank you twitter.com/peters_glen

38 Fairness and Equity