Bioenergy with CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage

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1 Bioenergy with CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) Presented by Jae Edmonds EPRI Global Climate Change Research Seminar Washington, DC May 19, 2009 PNNL-17943

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thanks to Rich Richels for the invitation to talk today. Thanks to EPRI for research support that has been essential to the development of our program in particular and integrated assessment in general. 2

3 Why are we interested in bioenergy with CCS? 3

4 Why are we interested in bioenergy with CCS? ENERGY with NEGATIVE emissions are a major feature of the new low-climate-forcing scenarios. Source: Rao, Shilpa, Keywan Riahi and Cheolhung Cho, Detlef van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, Michel den Elzen, Jasper van Vliet and Morna Isaac IMAGE and MESSAGE Scenarios Limiting GHG Concentrations to Low Levels. Framework Contract ENV.C5/FRA/2006/0071. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. 4

Bioenergy and CCS 5 Both bioenergy and CCS are technologies that

Carbon price Institutional framework that facilitates a business

5 Bioenergy and CCS 5 Both bioenergy and CCS are technologies that exist today. The combination of both is also being explored. CCS is not deployed at scale. Deployment of each depends on the institutional environment. Carbon price Institutional framework that facilitates a business model for deployment. Sequestration of CO 2 from bioethanol synthesis University of Illinois DOE Archer Daniels Midland

6 CO 2 Capture and Storage 6

7 CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage CO 2 capture and geologic storage (CCS). Isolation of CO 2 from the exhaust gas stream. Transport to an injection site. Injection into a deep reservoir. 7

8 Potential CO 2 Storage Reservoirs 8 Deep saline formations Depleted oil and gas fields CO 2 driven enhanced oil recovery Deep unminable coal seams CO 2 driven enhanced coal bed methane recovery Deep saline filled basalt formations and other formations.

9 CCS and Cumulative Emissions PgC Cumulative global CO 2 capture and maximum potential global storage capacity. 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Maximum Potential Storage A1g 450 ppm A1g 550 ppm A1g 650 ppm Unminable Coal Depleted Oil Reservoirs Depleted Gas Reservoirs Deep Saline Reservoirs Off Shore Deep Saline Reservoirs On Shore A1g 750 ppm GTSP 450 GTSP 550 GTSP 650 GTSP 750 Southeast Asia Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe Western Europe Ratio of Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2095 to Maximum Potential Geologic Storage Capacity by Region Latin America Africa Middle East India China Korea Japan Australia_NZ Canada USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cumulative emissions from MiniCAM CCSP SAP 2.1a Potential geologic storage from Dooley et al. (2004) and subsequent updates. 9

10 Present State of CCS Technology CCS systems have been used with coal and gas power generation systems since the 1970 s. (But not at scale.) 3,900 miles of CO 2 transport systems. CO 2 has been used with EOR for 35 years. CCS can potentially be applied to a wide range of industrial systems ranging from fossil fuel power generation (coal, gas and oil), cement kilns, refineries, chemical manufacture, etc. There are 4 end-to-end commercial systems in place today. 10

Four Sites with CO 2 Capture-to-Storage-to- MMV Snøhvit CO 2 storage

7 MtCO 2 /year injected into DSF 23 MtCO 2 injected over 30 years 150

being injected via approximately 85 injection wells over a 40 km 2

injection in 1996 More than 10 MtCO 2 have been injected via 1

MtCO 2 lifetime storage 150 km of the Norwegian coast In Salah CO 2

11 Four Sites with CO 2 Capture-to-Storage-to- MMV Snøhvit CO 2 storage began April MtCO 2 /year injected into DSF 23 MtCO 2 injected over 30 years 150 km of the Norwegian coast CO 2 storage began in MtCO 2 /year being injected via approximately 85 injection wells over a 40 km 2 area Projected 30 MtCO 2 lifetime storage 11 Weyburn Sleipner Started injection in 1996 More than 10 MtCO 2 have been injected via 1 injection well with a plume approximately 5 km 2 with Projected 20 MtCO 2 lifetime storage 150 km of the Norwegian coast In Salah CO 2 storage began in 2004 Three 1.5 km horizontal CO 2 injector wells are used to inject 1.2 MtCO 2 /year Projected 17 MtCO 2 lifetime storage

12 Institutional arrangement for CCS 12 CCS is a CO 2 emissions mitigation technology. It raises capital costs by 50%. It takes a substantial fraction of a power plant s power production to run. There is no business model for deploying CCS without either a significant positive price on carbon, or a regulatory requirement. New plants would be cheapest. Retrofits are possible at extra cost. For most of the world s carbon emissions, the price of carbon is zero. The regulatory model that governs CCS for most of the world s carbon emissions is still under development. Exceptions exist, e.g. Norway Significant progress in many parts of the OECD in defining CCS rules.

13 13 Bioenergy

14 Bioenergy 14 Bioenergy is derived from plant material a very young hydrocarbon. Bioenergy derives its carbon from the air. If the plant material is oxidized, then there in no NET change in carbon in the atmosphere. Though there are indirect emissions to be discussed shortly. Bioenergy is generally considered a renewable energy form. Bioenergy was the dominant preindustrial energy form. It was supplanted by higher energy density forms, e.g. fossil fuels and nuclear power. It is still used today, e.g. the pulp and paper industry but also traditional bioenergy use in developing regions. It is a major source of liquid fuel in Brazil today.

15 Bioenergy today There is more bioenergy used today than when it was the dominant energy form. Bioenergy is not cheap and without a subsidy, it does not compete effectively with energy forms such as fossil fuels. The relative attractiveness of bioenergy use could be dramatically different if under a carbon price regime. EJ/year Historical Global Energy Use Biomass Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Non-biomass renewable

16 Indirect Land-use Change Emissions (ILUC) Bioenergy production requires land, a limited resource. Any number of papers have identified the problem of indirect land-use emissions (ILUC). Fargione et al. (2008); Searchinger et al. (2008); Edmonds et al. (2003); and Wise et al. (2009). ILCU occurs when a major new demand for land is introduced in the face of a fixed land resource. Increased demand for land for purpose-grown bioenergy crops results in higher rental rates for crops and potentially expansion into unmanaged lands. Crutzen et al. (2008) also raised the question of expanded non-co 2 GHG emissions, most notably as a consequence of N 2 O from fertilizer applications. 16

17 ILUC and Limiting Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations There are more than 2000 billion tons of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems including soils and above ground plants. Limiting atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to low levels, e.g. 450 or 550 ppm implies limits for total anthropogenic carbon emissions. 450 ppm ~500 PgC (2005 to 2100) 550 ppm ~800 PgC (2005 to 2100) Note that these concentrations are NOT CO 2 -equivalent The extent of ILUC depends on the policy environment. 17

18 18 BioCCS

19 Carbon Pricing CCS only deploys in the presence of either a carbon price of a regulatory requirement. Purpose-grown bioenergy production is enhanced by the presence of a carbon price. The BioCCS combination produces a negative emission Need for a mechanism that allows for payment for negative emission. Note that negative global emission scenarios not only produce no revenue, but are a net public expenditure. 19

20 Carbon Pricing in for Two Contrasting Scenarios Immediate, universal participation by all regions to limit CO 2 concentrations in Two alternative carbon pricing regimes 1. Fossil fuel and industrial carbon tax (FFICT) in this regime only fossil fuel and industrial carbon emissions are valued. Bioenergy is treated as having no net carbon. Terrestrial carbon is valued at zero. 2. Universal carbon tax (UCT) in this regime all carbon is valued equally regardless of either its origins or the activity that introduces it to (or removes it from) the atmosphere. 20

21 Carbon Prices: FFICT and UCT 2005 USD/tC $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 UCT 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT Carbon Price $1,000 $ $

22 Net Land Use Change Emissions & Fossil Fuel and Industrial CO 2 Emissions For a given CO 2 concentration limit In the UTC regime ILUC disappears as an issue. In the FFICT regime high carbon prices drive bioenergy demands and ILUC TgC/yr 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Land Use Change Emissions 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT Reference 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT TgC/yr 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Fossil Fuel and Industrial CO 2 Reference 550 UCT 500 UCT 450 UCT 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT 5,000 5, ,000-5,000 22

23 Land use: 450 ppm atmospheric CO ppm Stabilization Scenario When ALL Carbon is Valued (UCT) 100% 80% Desert Other Unmanaged Land 60% Unmanaged Forests Reference Scenario 100% Desert 80% Other Unmanaged Land 60% Unmanaged Forests Managed Forests 40% Unmanaged Pasture 20% Pasture Bioenergy Crops Crops 0% UrbanLand RockIceDesert OtherArableLand Tundra ShrubLand UnmanagedForest Forest GrassLand UnmanagedPasture Pasture PurGrownBio Rice SugarCrop OtherGrain OilCrop MiscCrop FodderCrop FiberCrop Corn Wheat 40% Managed Forests 20% Unmanaged Pasture Pasture Bioenergy Crops 0% Crops % Desert 80% Other Unmanaged Land Unmanaged Forests 60% Bioenergy Crops Managed Forests 40% ppm Stabilization Scenario When Terrestrial Carbon is NOT Valued (FFICT) Unmanaged Pasture 20% Pasture Crops 0%

24 Where does the bioenergy go? Carbon taxes and bioenergy use Bioenergy can play many roles in climate stabilization: Provider of liquid fuels for transportation ( ), or If CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) is an available technology, bioenergy could be used in power generation with CCS ( ) and provide a means of achieving negative global CO 2 emissions. Bioenergy with CCS is a key technology for achieving low climate stabilization levels. EJ/yr UCT 500 ppm biomass to H2 biomass to H2 CCS Biomass (IGCC)_CCS Biomass (IGCC) Biomass (existing) Biomass (conv) refined liquids industrial refined liquids enduse wholesale gas industry building $174/tC $362/tC

25 BioCCS and carbon prices Fraction of Bioenergy to BioCCS 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT UCT 550 UCT 500 UCT % $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Carbon Price ($/tc)

26 BioCCS and carbon prices Fraction of Bioenergy to BioCCS Fraction of Bioenergy to BioCCS 100% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 80% 60% 40% 20% 550 FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT UCT 550 UCT 500 UCT FFICT 500 FFICT 450 FFICT UCT 550 UCT 500 UCT % 0% $150 $300 $450 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Carbon Price ($/tc) Carbon Price ($/tc)

27 BioCCS and Electric Power Generation EJ/year Global Fuel Consumption in Electric Power Generation 450 ppm Limit hydro geothermal exotic PV_storage PV CSP_storage CSP w ind_storage wind Gen_III Gen_II_LWR Biomass (IGCC)_CCS Biomass (IGCC) Biomass (existing) Biomass (conv) Coal (IGCC)_CCS Coal (IGCC) Coal (existing) Coal (conv pul) Gas (peak load conv) Gas (existing) Gas (CC)_CCS Gas (CC) Gas (base load conv) Oil (peak load conv) Oil (IGCC)_CCS Oil (IGCC) Oil (existing) Oil (base load conv) BioCCS in electricity is a minor energy form in the first half of the century. Even in the 450 ppm case Total BioCCS energy use for power production in % of total for the 450 ppm case

28 Final Thoughts BioCCS holds the potential to deliver negative carbon emissions and energy. While the seeds of BioCCS are with us now, much needs to change before the potential of this technology could be realized: A price on carbon (and a payment for negative emissions) Institutions that recognize CCS and manage risks Institutions that manage indirect land-use carbon emissions (ILUC). Even with the realization of the many conditions for success, the higher cost of BioCCS relative to CCS with fossil fuels places it at least 15 years behind fossil fuel CCS in deployment in our scenarios. 28

29 A technical report on "The Implications of Limiting CO 2 Concentrations for Agriculture, Land Use, Land-use Change Emissions and Bioenergy can be found on our website at: A GTSP special report on CCS can be found at: END 29

The Role of Technology in Meeting National and Global Technology Needs PART II

The Role of Technology in Meeting National and Global Technology Needs PART II GTSP The Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Presented by Jae Edmonds and Leon Clarke for the GTSP team The Cosmos Club