100% Renewable Energy Scenario for Frankfurt am Main

Transcription

1 100% Renewable Energy Scenario for Frankfurt am Main Gerhard ryi-hipp Coordinator»Smart Energy Cities«Head of Energy Policy Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Headquarter of Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg, Germany Future of Cities Forum 2015 World Future Council Beijing/Tianjin, China, 14/15 Sept 2015

2 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest solar research institute in Europe Director: Prof. Eicke R. Weber 1250 employees (incl. 300 PhD and diploma students) Fotos Fraunhofer ISE 12 Business Areas Silicon Photovoltaics orage Technologies III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics gen and Fuel Cell Technology Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells Energy Efficient Power Electronics Photovoltaic Modules and Power Platns Solar Thermal Technology Zero-Emission Mobility System Integration and Grids incl.»smart Energy Cities«concepts Energy Efficient Buildings Energy System Analysis

3 TARGET: Challenges to identify an optimized sustainable energy system of a city or region Decentralization: mainly local generation to be adapted to local load profiles! Individual solution necessary for each city and region Transformation period: 20 to 40 years needed to implement a sustainable energy system, short term solutions can be counterproductive long term è Short term measures must be in line with long term goals Complexity: fluctuating generation, storage, -side management, combined heat and power, power to heat, power to gas, electric mobility,...! Temporal dynamic and interdependencies of energy sectors must be taken into account

4 PROCESS: Transformation strategy 1. Decision on ENERGY TARGETS 2. DATA gathering Demand profiles Supply potential current and forecasts 3. Simulation of ENERGY SYSTEM SCENARIOS Possible solutions 4. Assessment of ENERGY SYSTEM SCENARIOS 5. Decision on a TARGET ENERGY SYSTEM 6. Development of the ENERGY ROADMAP Implementation plan 7. Monitoring concept development Process and targets 8. Decision on the ENERGY MASTER PLAN IMPLEMENTATION few lighthouse projects many small projects regular monitoring Actions by local government: Actions by research partner/consultant:

5 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY grid Generation type j Solar heat Geo thermal Generator network Distributer / Grid operator el C gas WS Consumer network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

6 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY grid el Generation type j Solar heat Geo thermal Generator network Distributer / Grid operator el C gas WS Consumer network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

7 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY grid el storage short time Sp Generation type j Solar heat Geo thermal Generator network Distributer / Grid operator el C gas WS Consumer network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

8 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY Solar heat Geo thermal Generator grid el network PtH Distributer / Grid operator storage short time storage seasonal el C gas WS Sp Consumer Generation type j network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

9 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY Solar heat Geo thermal Bio gas Wood Generator C gas Wood trading grid el network PtH Gas network storage short time storage seasonal Gas storage seasonal Distributer / Grid operator C el C gas WS Sp Consumer Generation type j network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

10 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY Solar heat Geo thermal Bio gas Wood Generator C gas Wood trading grid el network Feeding in of H 2 PtH Gas network Elyz Meth storage short time storage seasonal Gas storage seasonal Distributer / Grid operator H 2 CO 2 H 2 C el C gas WS Sp Consumer Generation type j network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

11 Local / Regional Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energies REGION CITY Import/Export grid Solar heat Geo thermal Bio gas Wood Generator Solar heat Geo thermal Bio gas Wood Generator C gas Wood trading el network Feeding in of H 2 PtH Gas network Elyz Meth storage short time storage seasonal Gas storage seasonal Distributer / Grid operator H 2 CO 2 H 2 C el C gas WS Sp Consumer Generation type j network connected ing type j island ing type j generators with are alternativ (one generator per building), others are optional Source: Fraunhofer ISE el/gas = pump electric / gas driven, C = Combined heat and power, WS = Wood stove, = storage, = Solar heat, Elyz = Elektrolyzer, Meth = Methanation

12 Way of proceeding to develop the roadmap towards a sustainable urban energy system Characteristics of sustainable urban and regional energy systems: High efficiency High share of fluctuating generation Decentral generation High interdependency of electricity, heating, cooling and mobility sectors Use of thermal and electrical stores è Temporal highly resolved modelling is needed to find the most costeffective target energy system Modelling Way of proceeding: 1) Modelling target energy system ) Roadmap development by backwarding Energy system 2014 Roadmap robust, flexible Backwarding Energy system 2050

13 New modelling tool to find the most economic sustainable energy system Fraunhofer ISE developed the modeling tool»kommod«to calculate optimized target energy systems for cities and regions Temporal highly resolved simulation of electricity, heat/cold, transport Questions answered: Cost-effective design of the energy system to achieve high share on renewable energy sources Possible energy system structures Necessary capacities on generation, grid and storage Necessary energy import/export to the city/region Investment and operation costs Example: supply and of one week in spring

14 ructure of energy system modelling Fluctuating sources Explanations of work Gas, coal, oil Biomass growth Land area / waste Solar radiation Solar area velocity Land area Water volume power Temperature Geothermal power Potential of primary source and area etc. to harvest it (local / partly regional: wind, biomass) fuel costs: biomass, fossil Fossil power plants Biomass power plants Solar plants power plants power plants Geothermal plants Technical data / costs of power plants in target year Import / Export, heat and cold Energiebalance and heat rom, balance Wärme, must Kälte be given: Versorgung Supply = Demand Last for für each jede hour unde of the des target Zieljahre year Energy in target year: Load curve for one year in hourly resolution Development factors: population, economy, efficiency, comfort,..., heat and mobility energy today: Load curve for one year in hourly resolution Batteries Modelling: find optimal combination of sources, which for each hour of the year meet expected electricity under given requirements, e.g. 60% RES, at lowest costs Hourly energy in target year calculated by identifying today s load curve and multiplying with development factors

15 How the city of Frankfurt/Main could be supplied by 95% renewable energy from the region by 2050 The city of Frankfurt/Main aims to be supplied by 100% renewable energy sources (RES) from the region by 2050 Fraunhofer ISE was asked to investigate, if this is possible and if yes, how The energy system (electricity, heating, cooling, local mobility) of Frankfurt/Main was captured, assumptions were made for energy and energy scenarios simulated for the target year 2050 Results 100% RES supply is possible, if the RES potential of the region is used 95% regional RES is much more economic, due to a lower storage capacity needed ENERGY STRATEGY 1. Significant increase of efficiency (in generation, C, ) 2. Maximal use of local renewable energy sources 3. Energy cooperation with region 4. Smart technologies: smart grid, storage, electric vehicles,...

16 Times series of Frankfurt/Main 2050 modelling results for a typical week in spring and in autumn 1 week in spring 1 week in autumn supply supply

17 ructure of the energy system Frankfurt/M 2050 Based on 95% renewable energy sources regionally generated Result of a temporal highly resolved simulation (hourly basis). RES Potentials: All RE and waste potential of the city, 50% of the potential of the region and 11.6% of the potential of the federal state of Hessen from und Biomass (= share of Frankfurt citizens of Hessen) Federal state»hessen«surrounding region»frankfurtrheinmain«genera<on on city area 22% 20% 84% 0,4% Export District Import - 18% 10% 24% Building level Accumulators 2.0 GWh 5% - 5% City of Frankfurt am Main 4964 GWh 100% Consumer 17% Local mobility Efficiency: Reduction of the energy from 2012 to 2050 From fossil fuels + electr. to electric vehicles only - 79% Waste Solid Biomass Biogas 23% 17% 6% C C C C Boiler pump 9% 21% Residen2al 32% 18% Services - 64% - 72% - 53% - 78% Solar thermal All data final energy Total genera2on 9759 GWh District hea2ng 42% and industry 12% 22% 36% Accumulators 2.3 GWh 5276 GWh 100% 42% 61% Industry - 11% - 10%

18 Frankfurt/M. 2050: 95 % RE from the region Installed capacities of the energy soruces Energy source Electr. Installed Power Biogas C 4% 4% 81 MW el / 72 MW th Solid biomass C 10% 9% 124 MW el / 99 MW th Solid biomass boiler - 11% 271 MW th Sewage gas C <1% 1% 15 MW el / 19 MW th Waste incineration C 9% 31% 131 MW el / 392 MW th Photovoltaic 32% MWp power 34% MW power <1% - 6 MW Solar heat generation - 22% 1470 MW pumps - 21% 378 MW Import in city area 10% - Electrical / thermal storage 2036 MWh el / 2594 MWh th generation costs 12,0 ct/kwh [C = Combined and Power]

19 Conclusions A sustainable energy system is a key pillar of a Smart Cities An effective transformation of an urban energy system needs systematic planning & implemention New modelling tools help to identify the most cost effective target energy system to achieve the energy target of a city Due to energy system modelling it is proven, that the city of Frankfurt/Main can meet its energy in 2050 by 95% renewable energy sources from the city and the region around the city

20 Thank you very much for your attention! Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Gerhard ryi-hipp