Lessons learned from initial operationalizations: Switzerland an the World

Transcription

1 Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Economics section Lessons learned from initial operationalizations: Switzerland an the World Drawing by Sara Eisenegger, FOEN Making the Planetary Boundaries Concept Work, , Berlin Andreas Hauser, Dr.Loa Buchli, Swiss FOEN, Prof. Hy Dao, Dr. Pascal Peduzzi, Unep-GRID

2 The policy relevance of assessing footprints against Planetary Boundaries Biodiversity footprint How much is safe? We have time series for a greenhouse gas footprint, a biodiversity footprint, a nitrogen footprint6 but how much of a footprint would be sustainable? 2

3 Assessing footprints based on Planetary Boundaries: Results for Switzerland Climate ! Biodiversity ! 3

4 Lessons learned: transfer/ communication Approach is easy to implement, clear message Clearly unsafe Unsafe Safe Drawing by Sara Eisenegger, FOEN Assessment of performance beyond mere numbers Takes account of trend (slow / rapidly deteriorating...) and (data) confidence Time perspective taken into account: shares over time / population scenarios 4

5 Lessons learnt: policy making Assess national footprintsagainst Planetary Boundaries. Footprint perspective leads to a fundamentally different assessment than territorial perspective Need for action along the whole product chain! Assessing footprints against Planetary Boundaries leadstoa fundamentallydifferent assessment of the magnitude of the need for action: Absolute decoupling(- 1 %) is not enough tostaywithinthe limitsofourplanet! 5

6 Assessing footprints by applying the Planetary Boundaries (boundary translated to yearly footprint indicators) Dao et al. (2015), further developing on Nykvist et al. (2014) 6

7 Relevant indicators? Population trends: Country share set at one reference date, then countries have to handle the demographic changes (e.g. decreasing per capita limits in case of population increase) 7

8 Footprint databases Switzerland( Proprietarydatabasefromthe SwissFederalOffice for the Environment combining officially published Swiss environmental data environmental values for exports and imports based on ecoinvent

9 Footprint databases World( Phosphorus Losses, Nitrogen Losses Climate Change, Ocean Acidification, Landcover Anthropisation, Biodiversity Loss Multi-Regional Environmentally Extended Input Output (MR EE IO) Database (2007) 130 sectors and products 30 emissions, 80 resources 43 countries & rest of world World Input-Output Tables ( ) 35 sectors, 59 products Environmental accounts on energy, greenhouse gases, air pollutants, use of mineral and fossil resources, land use, water use 40 countries & rest of the world 9 9

10 Performance Performance (sustainability) Score + trend + uncertainty Scores Footprint / Limit GHG emissions t CO 2 eq t CO 2 eq Carbon footprint CO 2 emissions CO 2 concentrations t CO 2 ppm Radiative forcing W/m 2 Temperature change C Limits Footprints 10 10

11 Scores Example: Climate Change Indicator: GHG emissions 11 The limitiscalculatedfor the period (85 years, zero emissions after 2100) At currentfootprintthe Swisslimitisreachedin 4 years 11

12 World s regions UNEP-GRID s World-wide assessment(40 regions/countries): 12

13 Main lessons Data available on an international level (e.g. Exiobase, WIOD) Approach is feasible. Need to translate the Planetary Boundaries into indicators that can be measured with footprint data Allocation: Fundamental difference between yearly limits and limits over time Evaluation of performances: Start with simple scores (e.g. footprint / limit), but consider also trends and uncertainties 13

14 Further development of the approach Further develop database: spatial, thematic and temporal resolution take into account of regional boundaries better understand causes and drivers How to handle negative limits? Both global and national performance need to be considered for evaluating the risks and priorities 14

15 Appendix 15

16 Switzerland: Efficiency leader? GDP / DMC Score reflects to a large extent Switzerland s high shareof the third sector Material Footprint (RMC) Switzerland: 17 t / capita EU-27: 14 t /capita EEA (2016) «More from less» Source: FSO (2016) 16

17 Critical footprints, relevant areas Clearly unsafe Climate Change Ocean Acidification Biodiversity Loss Nitrogen Losses Relevant areas of consumption Relevant economic sectors Nutrition Housing Mobility Housing Mobility (Nutrition) Construction services, Chemical products, Wholesale and retail trade, Energy sector Nutrition (Housing) Agriculture and food industry Nutrition (incl. animal feed) Agriculture Cross: information technology, financial services, commodity trading Relevant product groups Imported electricity Animal food, coffee, cocoa, buildings, palm oil, etc. Animal foods, hotels, restaurants 17

18 International Framework Sustainable consumption and production patterns SDG 12.2 By 2030 achieve sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources Growth SDG 8.4 Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation 18

19 Policy entry points in Switzerland Indicators to measure the progress towards a green economy in Switzerland Swiss Statistics, MONET Carbon footprint 19

20 Possible further steps Guidance to define targets and goals for businesses and sectors Asses national / Europe s Footprints against the context of Planetary Boundaries Stimulate the debate on the responsibility of countries to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint, biodiversity footprint etc. Develop a vision for critical systems (sustainable food, housing and transportation) 20

21 1. Are Planetary Boundaries truly global? 2. Can the relevant indicators be computed for the World and for Switzerland? 3. How to allocate a fair share of the global limits to each country? 4. How to assess performances? 21 21

22 Selected indicators Linked to human activities(economy), e.g. GHG emissions Might be different from Rockström & Nykvist, e.g. Land Cover Key indicatorsat country scale(maybederivedfromsubnationaldata, e.g. Land Cover, Biodiversity Loss) 22

23 Cumulated historical impacts Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement ( ) North America and Europe responsible for most cumulative emissions, but Asia growing fast Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project

24 Fairsharesof the global limits? Share of area? Share of World population? Rights? Responsibilities? Capacities? Past? Future? Territorial specificities? 1/887 (0.113%) of World pop. (2013) All people equal? equivalence scales (cf. OECD) : economic needs change with household size? allow more for people below poverty / development thresholds? 24

25 Equal share principle yearly limits Per capita value calculatedat a reference year Fixed country limit over years Changingper capita limitover years Limits over time Per capita value calculated over a reference period Changingcountry limitover years Fixedper capita limitover years Reference year: 2010 Reference period:

26 Climate change calculations the remaining cumulative emissions (including land cover changes) for a 50% chance to stay below a 2 C increase by 2100 compared with pre-industrial level Remaining budget (until 2100) IPCC AR5 World Scale: 1 GtCO 2 eq = in 1990 in 2010 in GtCO 2 eq +World emissions GtCO 2 eq -World emissions GtCO 2 eq / mio (pop ) = 1.7 tco 2 eq/cap/year Switzerland Scale: 1 GtCO 2 eq = X 0.125% (demographic share of Switzerland in the World in 1990) 3.03 GtCO 2 eq - Swiss emissions (footprint) 0.52 GtCO 2 eq / 896 mio (pop ) = 0.6 tco 2 eq/cap/year 26 26

27 Global impacts Geospatial data Land Cover Anthropisation and Biodiversity Loss: GlobCover (Envisat/MERIS) + urban areas (MODIS) 27 27

28 Synthesis of performances BL: Biodiversity Loss CC: Climate Change LA: Land Cover Anthropisation NL: Nitrogen Losses, OA: Ocean Acidification PL: Phosphorus Losses (Swiss performance unknown due to lack of data). For the four other Planetary Boundaries -Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Atmospheric Aerosol Loading, Freshwater Use and Chemical Pollution - there is no evidence of global overshoots, their global performances are considered in the green zones. The Swiss performances of these Planetary Boundaries have not been assessed