Linking Sustainable Development Goals and Planetary Boundaries to explore energy pathways

Transcription

1 Systems Ecological Perspectives on Sustainability SYKE, Helsinki, September 2014 Linking Sustainable Development Goals and Planetary Boundaries to explore energy pathways Tiina Häyhä 1,2, Sarah Cornell 1, Paul Lucas 2, Detlef van Vuuren 2 1 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden 2 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

2 Human impact on Earth 2

3 with consequences that are detrimental or even catastrophic for large parts of the world. During the Holocene, environmental change occurred naturally and Earth s regulatory capacity maintained the conditions that enabled human development. Regular temperatures, freshwater availability and biogeochemical flows all stayed within a relatively narrow range. Now, largely because of a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and ible and, in some cases, abrupt environmental change, leading to a state less conducive to human development 6. Without pressure from humans, the Holocene is expected to continue for at least several thousands of years 7. Safe and just operating space Atmospheric Biodiversity loss Change in land use Planetary boundaries To meet the challenge of maintaining the Holocene state, we propose a framework based on planetary boundaries. These Figure 1 Beyond the boundary. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded. 472 aerosol loading (not yet quantified) Chemical pollution (not yet quantified) Climate change freshwater use Global Ocean acidification flow boundary) (biogeochemical Phosphorus cycle ozone depletion Stratospheric cycle Nitrogen Earth s complex systems sometimes respond smoothly to changing pressures, it seems that this will prove to be the exception rather than the rule. Many subsystems of Earth react in a nonlinear, often abrupt, way, and are particularly sensitive around threshold levels of certain key variables. If these thresholds are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state, often with deleterious or potentially even disastrous consequences for humans 8,9. Most of these thresholds can be defined by a critical value for one or more control variables, such as carbon dioxide concentration. Not all processes or subsystems on Earth have well-defined thresholds, although human actions that undermine the resilience of such processes or subsystems for example, land and water degradation can increase the risk that thresholds will also be crossed in other processes, such as the climate system. We have tried to identify the Earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change. We have found nine such processes for which we believe it is necessary to define planetary boundaries: climate change; rate of biodiversity loss (terrestrial and marine); interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles; stratospheric ozone depletion; ocean acidification; global freshwater use; change in land use; chemical pollution; and atmospheric aerosol loading (see Fig. 1 and Table). In general, planetary boundaries are values for control variables that are either at a safe distance from thresholds for processes with evidence of threshold behaviour or at dangerous levels for processes without Rockström et al Raworth, Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd /9/09 11:12:39

4 Source: UNEP,

5 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) UN conference on Sustainable Development (Rio +20) in Brazil in 2012 Starting point for the process of formulating a set of SDGs for the period after 2015 (period after Millennium Development Goals) The goals should address and incorporate social, environmental and economic dimensions of sustainable development Progress towards the achievement of the goals needs to be assessed and accompanied by targets and indicators Open Working Group has left its proposal for 17 SDGs 5

6 Focus on the energy sector Sustainable Energy is a key factor for sustainable development for all countries and all people Energy is vital for alleviating poverty, improving human welfare and raising living standards Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all 7.1 by 2030 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services 7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by

7 Where are we now? 82% of total primary energy supply is run by fossil fuels, while renewable energy accounts for 12% of TPES 7

8 2.7 billion people use traditional biomass such as wood or dung for cooking and heating 8

9 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity Earth s lights at night, NASA. 9

10 What is the importance of energy sector as a driver behind different planetary boundary processes? Climate Change Ocean acidification Global freshwater use Fresh water withdrawal CO2 emissions 100% 80% 60% 40% NOx emissions Nitrogen cycle 20% 0% Land use change Land use SO2 emissions Atmospheric aerosol Loading: air pollution Loss in mean species abundance Biodiversity loss 10

11 Trade-offs and synergies between different goals and targets Eradicate hunger Access to water Access to energy Clean air Climate mitigation Conserve biodiversity Eradicate hunger Access to water Access to energy Synergy Mixed Trade-off Clean air Climate mitigation Conserve biodiversity Source: Roads from Rio+20 (PBL, 2012)

12 High Earth System Modeling Earth System Integrated Assessment Modeling Economic Modeling Low Low Human system High 12

13 Integrated Environmental Assessment: IMAGE3.0 How global long-term environmental change and sustainability problems develop over time, driven by human activities, such as economic development and population growth Used to assess key policy issues, such as climate change, air pollution, land-use change, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity Used for many international assessments, including IPCC assessments, UNEP s Global Environment Outlooks, OECD s Environmental Outlooks and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

14 Pathway analysis & safe operating space Vol September 200 FEATURE A safe operating space for humanity Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan RockstrÖm and colleagues. A lthough Earth has undergone many periods of significant environmental change, the planet s environment has been unusually stable for the past 10,000 years 1 3. This period of stability known to geologists as the Holocene has seen human civilizations arise, develop and thrive. Such stability may now be under threat. Since the Industrial Revolution, a new era has arisen, the Anthropocene 4, in which human actions have become the main driver of global environmental change 5. This could see human activities push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene, with consequences that are detrimental or even catastrophic for large parts of the world. During the Holocene, environmental change occurred naturally and Earth s regulatory capacity maintained the conditions that enabled human development. Regular temperatures, freshwater availability and biogeochemical flows all stayed within a relatively narrow range. Now, largely because of a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and Atmospheric aerosol loading (not yet quantified) Biodiversity loss Chemical pollution (not yet quantified) Change in land use industrialized forms of agriculture, human activities have reached a level that could damage the systems that keep Earth in the desirable Holocene state. The result could be irreversible and, in some cases, abrupt environmental change, leading to a state less conducive to human development 6. Without pressure from humans, the Holocene is expected to continue for at least several thousands of years 7. Planetary boundaries To meet the challenge of maintaining the Holocene state, we propose a framework based on planetary boundaries. These Climate change Figure 1 Beyond the boundary. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded. 472 freshwater use Global Ocean acidification SUMMARY New approach proposed for defining preconditions for human development Crossing certain biophysical thresholds could have disastrous consequences for humanity Three of nine interlinked planetary boundaries have already been overstepped flow boundary) (biogeochemical Phosphorus cycle ozone depletion Stratospheric cycle Nitrogen boundaries define the safe operating spac for humanity with respect to the Earth syste and are associated with the planet s bio physical subsystems or processes. Althoug Earth s complex systems sometimes respon smoothly to changing pressures, it seems th this will prove to be the exception rather tha the rule. Many subsystems of Earth react a nonlinear, often abrupt, way, and are pa ticularly sensitive around threshold levels certain key variables. If these thresholds a crossed, then important subsystems, such as monsoon system, could shift into a new stat often with deleterious or potentially eve disastrous consequences for humans 8,9. Most of these thresholds can be defined b a critical value for one or more control var ables, such as carbon dioxide concentratio Not all processes or subsystems on Earth hav well-defined thresholds, although huma actions that undermine the resilience of suc processes or subsystems for example, lan and water degradation can increase the ris that thresholds will also be crossed in oth processes, such as the climate system. We have tried to identify the Earth-syste processes and associated thresholds which, crossed, could generate unacceptable env ronmental change. We have found nine suc processes for which we believe it is nece sary to define planetary boundaries: clima change; rate of biodiversity loss (terrestri and marine); interference with the nitroge and phosphorus cycles; stratospheric ozon depletion; ocean acidification; global fresh water use; change in land use; chemical po lution; and atmospheric aerosol loading (se Fig. 1 and Table). In general, planetary boundaries are valu for control variables that are either at a saf distance from thresholds for process with evidence of threshold behaviour o at dangerous levels for processes withou Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd

15 Thank you!