THE NECESSITY FOR NUCLEAR POWER

Transcription

1 THE NECESSITY FOR NUCLEAR POWER

2 THE NECESSITY FOR NUCLEAR POWER Geoffrey Greenhalgh Graham & Trotman Limited

3 First published in 1980 by Graham and Trotman Limited Bond Street House 14 Clifford Street London WIX lrd Graham and Trotman Limited, 1980 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1980 ISBN-13: ()"249-6 e-isbn-13: DOl: / This publication is protected by international copyright law. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. Typeset in Great Britain by Supreme Litho Typesetting, liford, Essex.

4 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Foreword Chapter 1 The Need for More Energy 1 Chapter 2 Energy Demand 25 Chapter 3 The Availability of Oil 41 Chapter 4 Coal 52 Chapter 5 Nuclear Power 64 Chapter 6 Vll IX Xlll How Much Nuclear Plant in Operation by the year 2000? 98 Chapter 7 Nuclear Power Utilisation 119 Chapter 8 Nuclear Process Heat 126 Chapter 9 The Comparative Hazards of Energy Production and Use 143 Chapter 10 The Hazards of Fuel Production 148 Chapter 11 The Hazards of Power Generation 157 Chapter 12 Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect 171 Chapter 13 Hazard of Major Accidents 174 Chapter 14 Three Mile Island 189 Chapter 15 Waste Disposal 195 Chapter 16 Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation 210 Chapter 17 Opposition to Nuclear Power 223 Chapter 18 Conclusion 237 Glossary 241

5 List of Figures Recent changes in growth/energy ratios for a number of countries US gross energy consumption US commercial energy use US residential energy use Distribution of per t:apita energy t:onsumption in 1971 Urban population estimates and projections World population growth Changes between more and less developed population shares Arable land per capita; survey, 1965 and estimate, 1985 Energy subsidies for various food crops Growth and demographic transitions of gross world product versus world population and per capita product Global energy scenarios Future annual world energy requirements World primary energy demand projections Primary energy demand according to several projections The Conservation Commission's alternative demand projection Regional economic growth rates Petroleum prices Oil supply projections Oil demand and availability Natural gas supply and demand The market share for primary energy consumption in the US World production of coal Fuel used for energy generation in the OECD Development of the export/production ratio (%) of main coal producing countries Development of coal production and coal export Rate of ordering nuclear power stations World electrical generating capacity Comparison of worldwide total electric with hydroelectric generating capacity Time taken to bring new power plants into operation Annual ordering rate for nuclear reactors Penetration of the electric power market by nuclear power US total energy usage, 1972 Direct use of gas and oil in the US, 1972 Comparison of the electric and gasoline powered car US total energy economy, year 2000 US installed generating capacity Temperature ranges for process heat applications C:omparison of tot:'!1 c.ost of heat rlelivererl for rlifferent maximum heat IO:'!ds

6 viii The necessity fot nuclear power 40 Schematic diagram of transmission system Cost saving for transmission of heat from the Barsebeck power station compared with the extension of hot water stations Reactor providing heat where required Applications for nuclear process heat Schemes of coal gasification processes Process flow diagram for nuclear steelmaking system Total pipeline transportation cost versus energy flow rate Materials flow for coal mining and preparation in Canada Average radiation doses from various sources Extrapolation of known radiation effects down to small doses Comparison of pollutant standards, background levels, man~made exposures and health effects Annual change in C02 concentration in the atmosphere Frequency of man-caused events with fatalities greater than N Frequency of natural events with fatalities greater than N compared to the 100 US nuclear reactor case Total deaths per megawatt-year by energy system Total man-days lost per megawatt-year net output over lifetime of system Heat output from a harvest block Perspective drawing of plant for intermediate storage and encapsulation Handling of waste canisters in final repository Radioactive elements in high-level waste 20.1) 60. Relative ingestion radiotoxicity of components of highly active waste and naturally occurring radioactive pitchblende 206

7 List of Tables 1. GNP and the physical quality of life 3 2. Developing countries: growth of gross domestic product, Industrial countries: growth of gross domestic product, Selected social indicators for groups of nations, Levels of absolute poverty under alternative scenarios, year Contraceptive use and crude birth rates in selected developing countries, Energy budget per capita for a steady-state civilisation Growth and levels of gross domestic product under alternative scenarios Alternative assumptions for gross world product (GWP) growth rates in Cavendish report, % Alternative scenario demand projections Predicted world energy demand (excluding communist countries), UNICE Energy/GDP elasticities Energy supply in the year 2000 (MTDE) Summary of energy supply in the year Potential world primary energy production (exajoules) Energy sources as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over UNICE figures as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over Interfutures and IIASA figures as a percentage of total in 2000 and increase over Supply pattern for combined DECD indigenous supply and import figures Summary of source energy as a percentage of total in Source energy in 2000 as an increase over base figures Energy balances Development of the pattern of primary energy consumption Dependence on imported energy Energy balance (MTDE), World Energy Conference figures for supply and demand for 1972,2000 and Estimated future production by the main coal-producing countries for 1985, 2000 and DE CD energy demand and supply and world oil trade. Reference case: alternative nuclear sub-cases (MTDE) Coal: Present and future patterns of use within the DE CD 55

8 x The necessity for nuclear power 30. Data of production and export of the main coal producing countries (MTOE) Nuclear power. State of programmes in various countries. Situation at 1 January '2. Nuclear power in operation. Situation at 1 January Nuclear power in operation, under construction or ordered. Si tuation at 1 January Contribution of nuclear energy to the total production of electric power Contributions of the different reactor types in nuclear power ordered. Situation at 1 January Orders received by the principal manufacturers. Situation at 1 January Costs of a PWR nuclear power station Balance-of-plant equipment Energy balance (MTOE), Energy imports as a % of merchandise export earnings in Share of nuclear power in total electricity (%) Korea: Energy consumption structure (1,000 MTCE) USSR nuclear power stations Nuclear power stations for CMEA countries except USSR Nuclear capacity in year 2000 (GW(e)) Estimated potential world electrical demand (exajoules electrical output) Projected world nuclear power installation (GW(e)) Estimates of the development of installed electrical and nuclear capacity by main country groups (1000 MW(e)) Estimates of total world electric and nuclear energy consumption (TWh) Nuclear capacity (GW) Percentage change in GNP Energy consumption of primary sources (MTOE). (Combustible solids and liquids, natural gas, hydro/geo/nuclear power.) Electricity production of OECD (GWh) Estimated environmental damages from different pollution sources in the model city Selected oil spills exceeding 2,000 tons in marine waters, OECD countries, Average injury rates for coal and uranium mines Comparative data on accidents occurring in various extraction processes from 1965 to Accidental fatalities per million workers per year Injuries due to transport of fuel for a 1,000 MW plant Expected numbers of annual injuries and deaths due to occupational accidents per. 1,000 MW(e) plant for 1980 fuel cycles Estimated number of deaths due to accidents per GWy of the electrical energy sent out Occupational accidental deaths from 1 year operation of a 1,000 MW electrical power plant and associated fuel cycle services Quantities of waste products produced from fossil fuels (tons) 157

9 List of Tables xi 64. Annual releases of chemical pollutants from 1,000 MW(e) fossilfuelled power stations Metals in fuel p.g/g (ppm) Comparative dose commitments for coal-fired and nuclear 100 (MW(e)) generating plant from airborne releases Effluents from 1,000 MW(e) electric power stations Health effects associated with sulphur oxide emissions Estimates of the costs in the USA of damage caused by discharges of fossil fuel pollutants in Occupational injuries per year associated with operation of 1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest estimates from original references) Premature deaths per year associated with operation of a 1,000 MW(e) power plant (values are lowest and highest estimates from original references) Deaths and disabilities due to a 1,000 MW(e) power plant at 75% load Releases into the atmosphere 1975 (1,000 tons) Catastrophic dam failures Chlorine accidents Approximate values of acute illness and latent effects for reactors 180 Total deaths per 1,000 MW years of net electrical output Dates of first atomic bombs and reactors 211

10 Foreword Energy is no longer a purely technical and commercial question; it has become a political issue affecting the welfare of all mankind with far-reaching implications for the preservation of world peace. It is therefore vitally important for all of us that the right energy decisions be taken without delay and that the important contribution which nuclear energy can make toward the solution of the world energy problem should not be overlooked or, even worse, discarded. It is now recognized that the only significant choices we have, until at least the end of this century, for the production of electric power are coal and nuclear energy and at some places hydropower. Of course, we have to use all other alternative energy sources available and capable of development, but one should realize that by the end of the century, those sources can only make a marginal contribution. The shrinking world reserves and rising costs of petroleum will eventually eliminate it as a source of energy, except for propulsion purposes and uses by the petro-chemical industry. Conservation measures in the more affluent countries and higher priority given to alternative energy technologies may only retard the growth of the demand for electricity. To the developing world also the problems facing the nuclear industry cannot be a question of indifference. The less nuclear power that the industrial countries generate, the more oil they will consume, the higher the price will go, and less oil will be available to the developing world. The same is true of coal. Moreover, a healthy nuclear industry in the industrial countries is an indispensable basis for the expansion of nuclear power in developing countries themselves. What is the reality behind the public's apprehensions about nuclear power? By the end of 1979, the world's installed capacity of nuclear power amounted to 120,000 MW, or six percent of the world's generating capacity. By 1985, on the basis of plants now being built, the share of nuclear power will Increase to about 16 percent of the electricity annually produced. In 1985, it will represent the equivalent of more than

11 xiv Foreword 400 million tons of oil a year. For comparison, in 1978 Saudi Arabia produced 420 million tons of oil. Obviously, the contribution of nuclear energy is one we cannot afford to do without. If there is a danger to mankind it does not lie in the use of nuclear energy to generate electric power. It lies in nuclear armaments and in the risks of proliferation; it could lie in the political tensions which may follow the failure to develop nuclear power and other energy resources as replacements to declining petroleum resources. Dr Sigvard Eklund Director-General, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna