Water Resilience for Global Sustainability
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1 Water Resilience for Global Sustainability Water Science Alliance Dresden 28th June 2016 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
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3 1.21 C Warmer than 20th Century Average
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5 Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
6 Syria drought and the civil war
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8 Water Quality and Quantity integrated and affected by Global Change Disinfection By-Products (DBP) increase due to Pine- Beetle Infested forest dieback related by CC
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10 Human Development Global Environmental Change Water Resilience in Biosphere
11 RESILIENCE Resilience is the capacity of a system to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds.
12 Tipping points critical transitions
13 Principles for Building Resilience Sustaining ecosystem services in social-ecological systems Reinette (Oonsie) Biggs, Maja Schlüter, Michael Schoon (Eds) Erin Bohensky, Georgina Cundill, Vasilis Dakos, Karen Kotschy, Anne Leitch, Allyson Quinlan, Marty Anderies, Derek Armitage, Jacopo Baggio, Elena Bennett, Duan Biggs, Örjan Bodin, Katrina Brown, Shauna BurnSilver, Tim Daw, Nathan Engle, Louisa Evans, Christo Fabricius, Carl Folke, Victor Galaz, Line Gordon, Chanda Meek, Garry Peterson, Ciara Raudsepp- Hearne, Martin Robards, Lisen Schultz, Brian Walker, Paul West
14 7 PRINCIPLES OF RESILIENCE THINKING Maintain diversity & redundancy Manage connectivity Manage slow variables and feedbacks Foster complex adaptive systems thinking Encourage learning Broaden participation Promote polycentric governance systems
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16 Are we leaving Edens Garden?
17 Global temperature since last Ice Age Adapted by Stefan Rahmstorf
18 Humanity s 10,000 years of grace
19 Unprecedented scale and pace of global change
20 Earth Tipping Points
21 Critical transitions or regime shifts Regime shifts are substantial, persistent, reorganizations in ecosystem structure and processes Parkland Savanna Bush steppe Diverse Coral dominated Algae Dominated Reef
22 Tipping out of the Holocene Will Steffen et al., submitted AWG 2016
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24 Rainfall dependent on moisture feedback from functioning forest landscapes
25 Water related Tipping Elements in the Earth system
26 Global Transformation to 1.5 C Work in Progress Rogelje & Meinsheusen 2016
27 Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015
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29 Safe Operating Space for Freshwater
30 Safe Operating Space for Phosphorus
31 Aragonite saturation Ocean Acidification 1850
32 Ocean Acidification in 2100 (4 C scenario) Aragonite saturation
33 New Look at Water in Anthropocene
34 Integrated Water Resilience Approach
35 Global Hydrological Cycle Green and Blue water partitioning
36 Fundamental changes in global water appropriation
37 Green water management real opportunity Blue water scarcity 4000 Tot available water (m3/cap/yr) Jordan Uganda Eritrea Morocco Algeria Syria Tunisia Iraq Pakistan China India Ethiopia Egypt Bangladesh Japan Green water scarcity Available blue water (m3/cap/yr) Rockström et al., 2009.
38 Green Water The Black Elephant of the SDGs
39 The Grand African Predicament
40 Transformation to Global Sustainability
41 Functions and status of earth s biomes that regulate planetary resilience Photos: World Wildlife Fund, breakingenergy.com, saguidedtours.com, Sierra Club Pennsylvania, Projectaware.com, Duncan Greene/Wired UK. The polar regions regulate global temperature, regional climate systems and ocean circulation. Melting faster than anticipated. The world s temperate organic systems (such as permafrost) act as carbon & methane sinks and generate oxygen. Faster than anticipated thawing of permafrost & methane release The World s rainforests act as carbon sinks, provide moisture feedback, are banks for genetic diversity and generate oxygen. In rapid decline but the rate has declined somewhat. Temperate forests act as carbon sinks, regulate rainfall patterns & generate oxygen. Relatively stable but concern over rate of deforestation in Russia and severe warming impacts on disease. The ocean s marine systems act as a heat conveyer, carbon sink, a bank for genetic diversity and generates oxygen. In rapid decline Tropical savannah systems play a role in moisture feedback, regional rainfall patterns and act as carbon sinks. They remain relatively stable.
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