Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
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1 Abundance within Planetary Boundaries IIASA 12th March 2015 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
2 Photos: Mattias Klum
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4 The New Global Context Welcome to the Anthropocene Rising risks of tipping points Holocene our desired state of the Planet Great transformation to world prosperity on a stable and resilient planet Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
5 Living in a world characterised by: super wicked problems World Economic Forum (WEF), Global Risks Report 2013 Helbing, D. (2013) Globally networked risks and how to respond. Nature.
6 Syria drought and the civil war
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8 An EAT perspective on the Great Acceleration Revised great acceleration figures generously provided by: Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig, in prep (2014). Other Data Sources: Bach J.F., (2002). World Cancer Research Fund American Institute for Cancer Research, FAOstat, Land Commodities Research. Photo: atelierfood.se
9 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
10 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
11 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
12 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
13 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
14 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
15 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
16 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
17 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
18 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
19 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
20 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
21 Earth System Impacts
22 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
23 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
24 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
25 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
26 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
27 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
28 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
29 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
30 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
31 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
32 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
33 Steffen et al. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 16 January Design: Globaia
34 CO2 concentration Biodiversity loss Land degradation Water use O3 depletion... GREAT ACCELERATION
35 Rising Global Risks
36 Might the Earth System move to a new state? This would pose a severe challenge to contemporary civilization. Possibly a collapse? IPCC Projections 2100 AD Global Temperature ( C) 1 Now 0 Source: IGBP.net
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38 Risks related to agreed global goal of 450 ppm Probability of Exceedance 7% 1,6% 4 6 Average Global Temp rise at Equilibrium (C) Global Challenges Foundation
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45 45 Photo: Mattias Klum
46 Global Tipping Elements Melt of Greenland ice shelf Arctic sea-ice loss Boreal forest dieback Permafrost and tundra loss? Atlantic deep water formation Boreal forest dieback Climate change induced ozone hole? Indian monsoon chaotic multistability Dieback of Amazon rainforest Sahara greening Change in ENSO amplitude of frequency West African monsoon shift Instability of West Antarctic ice shelf Changes in Antarctic bottom water formation?
47 Two giants colliding Photo: N. Wijkmark/Azote
48 Are we leaving Edens Garden?
49 The Holocene - Humankinds years of grace Stockholm Resilience Centre and Rockström and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14 Photo: Michael A. Stecker
50 Human Prosperity within Safe Operating Space of Planetary Boundaries
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59 Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Steffen et al Science 16 January 2015
60 Global CO2 Emissions & Distribution (GtC) 365 ( ) OCEAN S ATMOSPHERE 155 ( ) TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS 545 ( ) 240 ( ) 180 ( ) 150 (60-240)
61 Pre-industrial Preindustrial
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65 Current
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67 A new direction: People and Planet Setting the agenda on Sustainable Development Goals
68 The future of energy: an accelerating challenge IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012) Photo: commons.wikimedia.com
69 Answering the challenge: green energy IIASA & IEA, Global Energy Assessment Report (2012) Solar PV installations leading countries Wind power in leading countries Photo: GreenGo Energy A/S
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71 New collaborations for global sustainability WBCSD, World Resources Institute & SRC
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75 Growth Without Limits Limits to Growth Growth within Limits Abundance within Planetary Boundaries
76 Social Tipping Point?
77 The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration Will Steffen, Wendy Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch,Owen Gaffney and Cornelia Ludwig 2015 Anthropocene Review Based on Steffen et al. (2004) Global Change and the Earth System More information
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