Global Environmental Title Change and. the Arctic. Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre. Text

Transcription

1 Global Environmental Title Change and Text the Arctic ARR Workshop and PSC Kautokeino 29th October 2012 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre 1

2 2 Photos: Mattias Klum

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5 The exceptional reality of the Arctic Nowhere on Earth are the current changes in the Anthropocene so pronounced as in the Arctic Impacts on Arctic peoples so far modest (Chapin in prep.) Arctic warming twice as fast as the global average (ACIA 2005, IPCC 2007).

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7 Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our ability to understand A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Fierce urgency of now A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

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9 When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response The Economist

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11 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

12 Northern hemisphere average surface temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

13 Atmospheric N 2 O concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

14 Atmospheric CH 4 concentration Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

15 Ozone depletion JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

16 Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

17 Ocean ecosystems FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

18 Coastal zone nitrogen flux Mackenzie et al IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

19 Tropical rainforest and woodland loss Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

20 Domesticated land Klein Goldewijk and Batties IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

21 Species extinctions Wilson, the Diversity of Life. IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004

22 the great CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 acceleration concentrations of the human entreprise, Overfishing Professor Will Steffen Land degradation Loss Biodiversity The Planetary.. Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene

23 RESILIENCE CHALLENGE Turning crises into opportunities for sustainability requires social-ecological resilience Lack of resilience may lead to traps and deepened vulnerability

24 Reconnecting to the Biosphere social-ecological transformations Perceived crisis shift in mind set, shared vision From silo-management to integrative landscapes Window of opportunity, governance transformation Actors, organisations, institutions, networks Experimentation, learning Enabling environments now MAB area Biosphere Reserve Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden Olsson et al E&S, Hahn et al Human Ecol. Schultz et al Env. Cons.

25 Turning crisis into opportunity in social-ecological systems Hurricane Mitch Honduras Storms and floods Cayman Islands Great Barrier Reef Australia Makanya agroecosystem - Tanzania From control to living with floods Europe Collaborative learning from crises/shocks and responding by building adaptive capacity for turning crisis into opportunity; changes in management practice, institutions and governance e.g. McSweeney & Coomes PNAS; Tompkins et al GEC; Olsson et al PNAS; Enfors 2009

26 Valuable Ecosystem Services (Desirable) Loss of ecosystem services (Undesirable) 1 4 coral dominance state shift algal dominance 2 3 clear water overfishing, coastal eutrophication disease, hurricane turbid water grassland phosphorous accumulation in soil and mud flooding, warming, overexploitation of predators shrub-bushland fire prevention good rains, continuous heavy grazing

27 Ecosystems Services for Human Wellbeing The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Framework

28 Three features of resilience 1. PERSISTENCE in the face of change, buffer capacity, withstand shocks 2. ADAPTABILITY the capacity of people in a social-ecological system to manage resilience e.g. through collective action 3. TRANSFORMABILITY the capacity of people in a social-ecological system to create a new system when ecological, political, social or economic conditions make the existing system untenable

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31 Humanity s 10,000 years of grace

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33 Transgressing safe boundaries Global freshwater use Rockström et al Nature, 461 (24):

34 Humanity most likely committed to 2 Degrees Masking by air pollution Warming of oceans Ecosystem sink

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36 NATURE GEOSCIENCE LETTER Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82 north Kort, E.A., et al., 2012

37 Turning crisis into opportunity A shift in mindset for transformation Latin America s agricultural revolution Australia s Great Barrier Reef Sweden s urban landscapes Preparing the system for change WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction

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40 Text Reconnecting to the Biosphere People and their place in nature (Head 2000) to watch and under-stand the land and use it respect-fully forever in the words of Canadian First Nations people ( p.ca/). 40

41 Stewardship of the Arctic Sustainable prosperity for the People in the Artic

42 Title Text 42