EMEP MSC-W model: recent changes and plans

Transcription

1 EMEP MSC-W model: recent changes and plans David Simpson Halmstad, January 2013

2 EMEP - Activities Current status Growing season tests Scale dependency (54, 28, 14, 7 km Europe 4 CTMs) Climate runs (EnsClim, ECLAIRE) ECLAIRE EMEP model documentation now published: Simpson et al, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2012

3 Validation Diurnal cycles (2006):

4 Validation cont. Diurnal cycles (2006):

5 Mod AOT40 f (ppb h) Model Performance Comparison: AOT40 f (EU definitions) Standard model, AT47 AT46 PL02 PT04 LT15 DE01 DE02 FR13 PL04 FR15 EE11 SE11 DK05 FI09 ES08DE09 SE32 NO43DK31 NO01 NL09 GB39 EE09 SE39 GB51 NO52 SE14 GB02 FI17 GB13 GB49 FI37 GB38 GB33 NO39 SE35 GB50 GB06 IE31GB15 IT01 Year 2006 Max altitude 300 m y= 1.11 x Corr.= Obs AOT40 f (ppb h)

6 Mod AOT40 f (ppb h) Model Performance Comparison: AOT40 f (EU definitions) Standard model, AT47 AT46 PL02 PT04 LT15 DE01 DE02 FR13 PL04 FR15 EE11 SE11 DK05 FI09 ES08DE09 SE32 NO43DK31 NO01 NL09 GB39 EE09 SE39 GB51 NO52 SE14 GB02 FI17 GB13 GB49 FI37 GB38 GB33 NO39 SE35 GB50 GB06 IE31GB15 IT01 Year 2006 Max altitude 300 m y= 1.11 x Corr.= Obs AOT40 f (ppb h) But... problems over Switzlerland? Needs investigation

7 Activity 1: Growing seasons Questions: 1. Can we do better than the current latitude model 2. Does it matter for ozone fluxes? Approach: Test various methods against data on birch phenology network Developed own method (T5), based entirely upon temperature Assess changes with EMEP model Results: Answer 1 = yes, new T5 method (tested for birch) Answer 2 = to some extent

8 SGS: Comparison of methods (Sakalli & Simpson, Biogeosciences, 2012)

9 SGS, old and new

10 SGS: Changes in POD, old and new (Sakalli & Simpson, Biogeosciences, 2012)

11 SGS: Changes in POD, cont. (Sakalli & Simpson, Biogeosciences, 2012)

12 SGS: Changes in POD, cont. (Sakalli & Simpson, Biogeosciences, 2012) Conclusion: SGS can and should be improved. Also to add climate-sensitivity.

13 TFMM Scaling Excercise 4 models (EMEP, CHIMERE, LOTOS, RCG) 4 scales: 56 km, 28 km, 14 km, 7 km Emissions from TNO+INERIS 2009 Comparisons so far focussed on O 3, NO 2 and PM Comparisons for 4 types of site: EMEP Rural Urban Traffic

14 TFMM Scaling Excercise NO 2 :

15 TFMM Scaling Excercise O 3 : (Fagerli et al., EMEP Report 1/2012)

16 Activity 2: Effects of climate change (NMR EnsClim) Simulated April-September change to in average O3. (Only changes that are statistically significant at the 95% level are plotted. Units ppb(v). Langner et al., ACP, 2012) powerdot :-) Halmstad January 2013

17 Activity 2: Effects of climate change (NMR EnsClim) Highlights uncertainty in base emissions of BVOC: Next task: N-deposition,

18 EU ECLAIRE Project: Key Questions How will climate change alter the threat of air pollution on ecosystems? Changing emissions, transport and deposition of air pollutants? Changing vulnerability of ecosystems for a given pollution dose?

19 ECLAIRE: Role of EMEP EMEP calculates changes in N-deposition, O 3 LPJ-GUESS calculates changes in biomass, BVOC, soil-no emissions Models will use same meteorology and speak to each other Using downscaled meteorology from RCA Many possibilities - several DGVMs, DGSMs, CTMs EMEP model - should also be upgraded with many biosphere-atmosphere improvements all to take climate change into account

20 ECLAIRE ESX initiative Ecosystem surface exchange (ESX) model - to investigate effects of chemistry on fluxes ESX = In development - high potential but challenging

21 Future considerations EMEP EMEP model will develop links to ecosystem models Photosynthesis-based gsto More species Climate responsive Explicit canopy-chemistry? (ESX) How do we validate?

22 Future considerations Links to effects/icp Upgraded DO3SE? (photosynthesis) or ESX Simplify? (SPOD - see Karlsson et al.) How do we validate? Great need for model-measurement evaluation, not just of ozone fluxes and concentrations, but of water and heat fluxes, energy balance, stemflow, etc.

23 Future considerations Links to effects/icp Upgraded DO3SE? (photosynthesis) or ESX Simplify? (SPOD - see Karlsson et al.) How do we validate? Great need for model-measurement evaluation, not just of ozone fluxes and concentrations, but of water and heat fluxes, energy balance, stemflow, etc.... and of course of biomass/growth reductions ;-)