ICP Forests Progress Report

Transcription

1 Progress Report Outline Revision of the monitoring system the Manual Data analyses on large scale (Level I) CL exceedances forest ecosystem scale (Level II) dynamic modelling effects of climate change response of plant communities

2 Revision of the monitoring Aims Better explicable data at large-scale (Level I) at ecosystem scale (Level II) for cause-effect studies for modeling for up scaling Politically relevant conclusions on air pollution effects and their relation to climate change carbon sequestration biodiversity

3 Revision of the monitoring Political target groups CLRTAP (UNECE) DG Env (EC) Cooperation with EC-LIFE project

4 Further development and implementation of an EU-level Forest Monitoring System (FutMon) under LIFE+ Large scale (Level I): Merging of Level I and NFI plots: Possibility to analyse on the same plots forest health (defoliation, discolouration) damaging agents (insects, fungi, drought, storm etc.) forest soil condition forest growth ground vegetation (species abundance) Relevant to relationships between Air pollution Climate change Carbon fluxes Biodiversity

5 Further development and implementation of an EU-level Forest Monitoring System (FutMon) under LIFE+ Large scale (Level I) 5455 plots (EU Member States) Level I linked with NFI ( ): 58%

6 Further development and implementation of an EU-level Forest Monitoring System (FutMon) under LIFE+ Forest ecosystem scale (Level II) Upgraded 300 plots 200 Level II standard plots 100 Level II core plots 200 standard plots Crown condition (annually) Foliar chemistry (every 2 years) Tree growth (every 5 years) Ground vegetation (every 5 years) Soil condition (every 10 years) Deposition (continuously) Meteorology (continuously)

7 Further development and implementation of an EU-level Forest Monitoring System (FutMon) under LIFE+ Forest ecosystem scale (Level II) Upgraded 300 plots 200 Level II standard plots 100 Level II core plots 100 core plots Surveys on the standard plots plus Litterfall (continuously) Phenology (several times each year) Ambient air quality (continuously) Ozone injury (continuosly) Soil solution (continuosly) Soil water (continuously)

8 Revision of the monitoring Benefits More information per plot Deeper insight into cause-effect relationships Data permitting modelling approaches upscaling from Level II to Level I Relevant to relationships between Air pollution Climate change Carbon fluxes Biodiversity Data analyses conducted

9 Data analyses Implementation Using know-how of ICP M&M Cooperation with German NFC (OEKO-DATA) Critical loads calculated for 4600 Level I plots applying the SMB method ICP Forests Exceedances calculated for EMEP1980: deposition values of the year 1980 provided by EMEP ; NAT2000: deposition values of the year 2000 derived from national projections; COB2020: deposition of the Cost Optimized Baseline scenario, former named as Current Legislation (CLE) scenario; Low*2020 / Mid*2020 / High*2020: deposition of 3 scenarios with a different ambition level of emission reduction, e.g. a high ambition level of emission control means low values of deposition; MFR: deposition assuming the Maximum (technically) Feasible Reduction of air pollutants emission.

10 CL exceedance at large scale Level I plots Exceedances of critical loads for acidity at Level I sites Forest Level I EMEP NAT COB Low* Mid* High* MFR sites no 62,96 97,86 99,98 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 exceedances > ,17 0,19 0,02 > ,53 1,53 0,00 > ,65 0,30 0,00 > ,69 0,12 0,00 Level I results compared with area at risk of acidification in 2020 under different deposition scenarios published in the CCE report 2011 COB Low* Mid* High* MFR Forest Level I sites < All ecosystems, EMEP area All ecosystems, EU 27 area

11 CL exceedance at large scale Level I plots Exceedances of critical loads for nutrient nitrogen at Level I sites Forest Level I EMEP NAT COB Low* Mid* High* MFR sites no 53,67 63,71 81,05 86,18 87,27 88,88 89,43 exceedances > ,03 27,36 17,72 13,31 12,29 10,70 10,15 > ,96 8,15 0,96 0,45 0,38 0,38 0,38 > ,94 0,53 0,25 0,06 0,06 0,04 0,04 >1500 1,40 0,25 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Level I results compared with area at risk of eutrophication in 2020 under different deposition scenarios published in the CCE report 2011 COB Low* Mid* High* MFR Forest Level I sites All ecosystems, EMEP area All ecosystems, EU 27 area

12 Accounting for climate change Assumed scenarios Cost Optimized Baseline scenario (COB) IPCC scenario for climate change (A1B) On 108 Level II plots: Climate change until 2100 causes decreasing CLs for nutrient nitrogen unchanged CL exceedances because decreasing deposition

13 Biodiversity Application of the BERN model Results of VSD+ as input variables Response of plant communities simulated Adaptation of plant communities to site conditions High on 12 plots High regeneration potential High vitality Moderate on 6 plots Low regeneration potential Reduced vitality Low on 3 plots No regeneration potential Low vitality