Impact of Climate Change on Global Premature Mortality from Outdoor Air Pollution

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1 Impact of Climate Change on Global Premature Mortality from Outdoor Air Pollution Raquel Silva, PhD Candidate Gillings School of Global Public Health Environmental Sciences and Engineering 04/29/14

2 Air quality and climate change Climate change Changes in: - Photochemical reaction rates - Biogenic emissions - Deposition - Atmospheric circulation Jacob and Winner 2009; Weaver et al 2009; Fiore et al 2012 Air Quality Ozone: Likely increase in polluted regions during the warm season, particularly in urban areas and during pollution episodes Likely decrease in remote regions (background ozone) PM 2.5 : Effects are uncertain and vary regionally (different changes in precipitation, wildfires and biogenic emissions, different PM 2.5 composition, etc.) 2

3 Health impacts of climate change Air Quality Climate change Extreme Weather Events Climate-Sensitive Diseases Health Effects Heat Waves Agriculture Few studies have assessed the effects of climate change on human health via changes in air quality Past climate change: Orru et al (2013) - regional effects of ozone in Europe, recent past; Fang et al (2013) - global effects of ozone and PM 2.5 (using one climate-chemistry model, GFDL-AM3) Future climate change: assessments on a metropolitan scale (Knowlton et al 2004, Sheffield et al 2011), in the US (Bell et al 2007, Tagaris et al 2009, Post et al 2012), in Europe (Orru et al 2013), and globally (West et al 2007, Selin et al 2009) 3

4 Research Objective Use output from the ACCMIP ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to quantify the present-day and future global burden of outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and the contribution of past and future climate change to that burden. Present-day burden of air pollution on mortality ( ): 470,000 (95% CI: 140, ,000) ozone-related deaths per year 2.1 million (95% CI: million) PM2.5-related deaths per year. [Silva et al. 2013] 4

5 Estimate air pollution-related mortality ( Mort ) Mort = y 0 (1-exp -β X )Pop y 0 cause-specific baseline mortality rate for exposed population Pop exposed population (adults 30+) X = X2 X1 diff. in air pollutant conc. (ACCMIP multi-model ensemble) Past climate change: Hist2000 Em2000Cl1850 Future climate change: Em2000Cl2030/2100 Hist2000 β = ln(rr)/10 concentration-response factors from long-term epidemiological studies: Ozone, 10 ppb (Jerrett et al. 2009) Respiratory diseases RR = ( ) PM 2.5, 10 µg/m 3 (Krewski et al., 2009) Cardiopulmonary diseases Lung Cancer RR = ( ) RR = ( ) - Projections of future population and baseline mortality from International Futures. - All inputs were (re)gridded to 0.5 x0.5 horizontal resolution. 5

6 Impact of past climate change on mortality Ozone-related mortality PM 2.5 -related mortality(*) 1,500 (95% CI: -20,000 to 27,000) 2,200 (95% CI: -350,000 to 140,000) (*) PM 2.5 calculated as a sum of species (dark blue) PM 2.5 as reported by 4 models (dark green) Light-colored bars - low-concentration threshold (5.8 µg m -3 ) 6

7 Impact of past climate change (ozone-related mortality) Regions Regional mortality per year Total deaths Deaths per million people(*) North America Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East India East Asia 1,490 2 Southeast Asia South America Africa Australia (*)Exposed population (age 30 and older) Global multi-model mean (deaths per year): 1,500 (95% CI: -20,000 to 27,000) Respiratory mortality, deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1, multi-model mean in each grid cell, 9 models 7

8 Impact of past climate change (PM 2.5 -related mortality) Regions Regional mortality per year Total deaths Deaths per million people (*) North America 3, Europe Former Soviet Union 2, Middle East 136 <1 India -27, East Asia 23, Southeast Asia 3, South America 1,000 6 Africa -4, Australia (*)Exposed population (age 30 and older) Global multi-model mean (deaths per year): 2,200 (95% CI: to ) CPD+LC mortality, deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1, multi-model mean in each grid cell, 5 models, PM 2.5 calculated as a sum of reported species 8

9 Impact of future climate change (ozone-related mortality) Respiratory Premature Mortality Multi-model mean (95% CI) (thousands deaths. yr -1 ) (-31, 88) (-196, 1095) Million deaths yr CESM-CAM-superfast EMAC GFDL-AM3 GISS-E2-R HadGEM2 MIROC-CHEM MOCAGE NCAR-CAM3.5 STOC-HadAM3 UM-CAM Ensemble Mean deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1 9

10 Impact of future climate change (PM 2.5 -related mortality) CPD+LC Premature Mortality Multi-model mean (95% CI) (thousand deaths. yr -1 ) (46, 311) (-881, 1826) Million deaths yr GFDL-AM3 GISS-E2-R MIROC-CHEM NCAR-CAM3.5 Ensemble Mean deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 )

11 Conclusion Use of modeled concentrations from an ensemble of 14 state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models Quantification of premature mortality attributable to climate change due to its effect on air quality Past climate change had a very small contribution to the present-day global burden on mortality; Future climate change may have a noticeable contribution to the overall change in mortality, particularly in Large uncertainty in results reflecting spread of model results and uncertainty in CRFs. Results are estimated at a fine enough horizontal resolution to capture both global and regional effects. 11

12 Acknowledgements Co-authors: J. Jason West, Yuqiang Zhang, Susan C. Anenberg, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell and ACCMIP modelers Funding: - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (fellowship SFRH/BD/62759/2009) - NIEHS grant #1 R21 ES International Council for Clean Transportation 12

13 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL PREMATURE MORTALITY FROM OUTDOOR AIR POLLUTION THANK YOU Raquel Silva