Asian Engineering Technology for Disaster Management

Transcription

1 Thailand Engineering EXPO 2013 Technology for sustainable natural hazard mitigation Asian Engineering Technology for Disaster Management November 15, 2013 Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan Prof. Dr. Hiroyasu Ohtsu The 21 st Century is the era of disaster. Increase of Catastrophic Natural Disaster Events in Asian Countries Earthquake/Tsunami Sumatra Earthquake & Tsunami East Japan Disaster 2011 Dec., 2004 Mar., 2011 Flooding/Landslide/High Tide Vietnam Flooding 2010 Thailand Flooding 2011 Typhoon Haiyan in Philippine Oct., 2010 Oct., 2011 Nov., 2013

2 Natural/Man made Disaster along River Basin in Asian Countries Climate Change Heavy rainfall Man made hazard Deforestation Disorderly land development Landslide Mud flow Earthquake Strong ground motion Flooding Land subsidence Man made hazard Disorderly land development Man made hazard Excessive water extraction Tsunami High Tide Coastal erosion Climate Change Lift of sea level Flow of Risk Management Risk Identification Risk Control Risk Reduction/Risk Reduction Countermeasures Risk Classification Risk Assessment Risk Response Risk Transfer Risk Finance Insurance Transfer

3 Def. of RISK in the discipline of engineering Expected losses R : Expected loss (Risk) P i : The probability of event i occurring C i : The losses incurred when the event i occurs J R P i C i 1 i P: Probability Vulnerability Frequency of hazard Man made hazard Deforestation Disorderly land development Climate Change C: Consequences Natural Hazard Information High 1.0 Hazard Model Frequency 0 Hazard Level Log Examples of Hazard Level Low Annual Exceedance probability ( ) Ground motion (Earthquake/Landslide) Rainfall intensity (Landslide) Height of tidal wave (Tsunami) 5 year RPH Reciprocal A ) 5 Site A Site B Hazard Level 1 / Ψ : Return period of hazard level 10 year return period hazard? 100 year return period hazard? 1,000 year return period hazard?

4 Example of change of Rainfall Hazard(in Wakayama, Japan) 1.0 Climate Change Exceedance probability ( ) Hazard curve In 1997 Hazard curve In 2007 Shift Maximum daily rainfall (mm/day) Landslide in Japan, National Road No. 168

5 Landslide in Japan, National Road No. 168 How to Mitigate Risk Def. in the discipline of engineering Expected losses J R P i C i 1 R : Expected loss P i : The probability of event i occurring C i : The loss incurred when the event i occurs i Strategy 1: Reduction of P i Strategy 2: Reduction of C i

6 What is the difference between ASEAN Countries and Japan on Development of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures? Poor Development of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures in Japan Late 19 th Century Memory of my grandmother Evacua on to the roof of house during flooding Awareness of Disaster 1960s Memory of mine Inundation of my house by typhoon Development of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures 1995 Great Hanshin Awaji Disaster 2011 Great Tohoku Disaster Limitation of Conventional Design Concept Difference between ASEAN Countries and Japan on Development of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures? High Medium level Disaster Comparison of Development level of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures at current situation Frequency 0 Hazard Level Catastrophic disaster Low Medium level Disaster Catastrophic disaster ASEAN Countries?/OK? N/A Japan OK N/A Examples of Hazard Ground motion (Earthquake/Landslide) Rainfall intensity (Landslide) Height of tidal wave (Tsunami)

7 Tsunami Disaster Tsunami Protection Wall, Tarou cho, Iwate Pref. 13 Tsunami Event Overflow Tsunami protection wall TSUNAMI Building H SL Sea level H W Housings Road Mountain Sea bed H SL : Height of Sea Level H W : Height of Tsunami Prevention Wall H SL <H W : Safety (H SL =H W : Critical condition) H SL <H W : Disaster Traditional Design Concept Height of Sea Level, H SL is function of Hazard level, which is pre determined in design phase. Limitation

8 Traditional Design Concept Based on a Certain Hazard level Mechanical Treatment? H SL (H SL ) 1000 (H SL ) 500 (H SL ) 100 TSUNAMI Sea level H W Catastrophic disaster 1000 year return period 500 year return period 100 year return period (Medium level Disaster) Tsunami protection wall Building Housings Road Risk Mitigation Disaster Prevention Mountain Sea bed H SL : Height of Sea Level H W : Height of Tsunami Protection Wall H SL Risk Mitigation/Recovery/Restoration Response 1 Establishment of Early Warning System for Evacuation TSUNAMI Sea level H W Overflow Building Evacuation Housings Road Mountain H SL : Height of Sea Level Sea bed H W : Height of Tsunami Protection Wall Awareness of Disasters Response 2 Movement/Reconstruction of Commercial/Residential Areas Overflow Building H SL TSUNAMI Sea level H W Road Housings H SL : Height of Sea Level Sea bed H W : Height of Tsunami Protection Wall Approval of Residents

9 Disaster Main cause Reconstruction Kobe Eq Strong motion Swiftly (A few years) East Japan Eq Tsunami Under investigation Planning for Disaster Risk Mitigation Interdisciplinary Knowledge Development of Disaster Prevention Infrastructures Engineering Knowledge Evacuation In Kobe, most buildings were reconstructed at the same place as previous time. Awareness of Disasters Recovery Elapsed time t Interdisciplinary Knowledge Restoration/Reconstruction Approval of Residents However, what happened in Tohoku? Collapse of Elevated Highway (The Kobe Earthquake 1995) Tsunami Debris (The East Japan Earthquake 2011) Scope of the Project Development of education program focusing on Disaster Risk Mitigation/Recovery/Reconstruction among ASEAN Alliance Universities, ASALUs and Kyoto University Promotion of exchange of graduate students for the education program among ASALUs and Kyoto University and the experience associated with disaster recovery/reconstruction Consortium for Education of Leaders Engaging in Disaster Risk Mitigation/Recovery/Reconstruction comprising 5 Counties/7 Universities Bangkok, Thailand 1. Chulalongkorn University 2. Kasetsart University 3. Asian Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia Institut Teknologi Bandung Kyoto Hanoi, Vietnam Vietnam National University, Hanoi Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia University of Malaya

10 IMPLEMENTATION Program in 2013 AES-1 & AES-2 (Intensive lecture) Thailand Chulalongkorn University Each ASALU: 3 students 3 students x 5 Univs.=15 students Thailand Kasetsart University Thailand Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Dispatch of students for AES-1& AES-2 Vietnam Vietnam National University, Hanoi Dispatch of students Distance lecture (MS-3) Dispatch of students for AES-1& AES-2 Indonesia Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) Dispatch of students for ES-1 & MS-1 Dispatch of students for ES-1 & MS-1 MS-1 & ES-1 (Intensive lecture) Japan Kyoto University Kyoto Univ: 15 students MS-3 (Distance learning) 19 ES 1 AES 1 Contents of Education Program in 2013 Aiming at offering Interdisciplinary knowledge to accept students who have diverse background AES 2 MS 1 MS 3 Name of Subject Feature Key words Environmental Issues for Disaster Recovery Engineering Seminar on Disaster in ASEAN Countries (1) Engineering Seminar on Disaster in ASEAN Countries (2) Disaster and Health Risk Management for Liveable City Policy Evaluation Combination of Environment, Geo Environment and Engineering knowledge Disasters in ASEAN Countries Disasters in ASEAN Countries Combination of Medical, Environment and Urban planning knowledge Combination of Socioeconomic and Engineering knowledge Treatment of disaster debris for recycling/reuse Management of geoenvironmental contamination Earthquake, Tsunami, Landslide Flooding, Coastal Erosion, Land subsidence Human brain function and behavior after disaster Disaster medicine and epidemiology Concern on health and mobility of elderly people in rural area BCP (Business Continuity Plan) Risk Management Disaster Recover 20