Energy Efficiency in Central Asia: regional aspects and gaps

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1 Energy Efficiency in Central Asia: regional aspects and gaps Atabek Umirbekov Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia Climate Change and Sustainable Energy program Second International Energy Efficiency Forum Dushanbe, Tajikistan September 2011

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3 Main economic and energy consumption indicators Country Population (million) GDP, (bill US$) GDP per capita (US$/per son) Kazakhstan 15,7 37, Kyrgyzstan 5,3 2,0 377 Tajikistan 6,8 1,7 250 Turkmenistan 5,0 8, Uzbekistan 27,3 22,9 839 TPES (toe) TPES per capita (toe/perso n) TPES per GDP (toe/us$) ASIA OECD Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics(2010)

4 Skewed distribution of energy resources Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan 369 bill kwh/year 1407 Mtoe Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Mtoe 54 bill kwh/year Source: Based on UNSPECA (2004), estimated using IEA conversion ratios

5 Structure of the primary energy consumption in (%) 100% 75% 50% 25% Hydro Coal Oil Gas 0% Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Source: Eurasian Development Bank (2008)

6 Power demand forecasts Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Power generation (MWh a year) 78,433,700 49,033,000 10,489,700 Projected power demand in 2020, (MWh a year) 116,000,000 A 56,589,000 B 26,380,000 C Expected increase 48% 15% 151% Source: National reports A Kazakhstan`s Strategic Development Plan to 2020 B ADB (2004) C Turkmenistan`s Economic Development Strategy to 2020

7 Multiple issues relevant to increasing energy supply High investment costs Rising energy prices Transboundary issues Increasing environmental concerns

8 State initiatives on Energy Efficiency in the past Kazakhstan: Law on Energy Saving (1997) Energy Saving Plan (1996)(being revised) Kyrgyzstan: Law on Energy Saving (2008) National Energy Program for (2008) Tajikistan: Law on Energy Saving (2002) Uzbekistan: Law on Rational use of energy resources (1997) Energy Saving Program to 2010 (2001)

9 Weak institutional frameworks Absence of permanent institutional structures responsible for developing and control over EE policies/programes; Low coordination between state agencies on cross-sectional issues such as EE; (UNECE Environmental Performance Assessments) Insufficient capacity to develop and undertake feasible EE policies/project; (ADB Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation: Energy needs assessment) Underdeveloped legislative frameworks; Absence of intermediary agents, such as ESCOs;

10 Institutional management issues in the energy sector Energy sector is a vertically integrated state monopoly in most of the CA countries; Ownership - Regulation Management Development Transparency issues

11 Low tariffs dilemma Tariffs are comparatively low and hardly reaching costrecovery levels; IFIs and IDOs calling for lifting the current tariffs up to levels that would allow generate funds for maintenance and modernization of the energy sector; BUT High share of low income households in the population makes restructuring tariffs policy a politically difficult task;

12 Insufficient investment and lack of appropriate financial instruments Though few estimates exist on economically feasible energy efficiency potentials across the main sectors, some rough estimationses suggest that billions $ are needed only for modernization of the energy sector; Proposals to establish national EE funds, but foreign and donor investments would be still needed..the public sector will not have the capacity to meet the full investment needs. (WB (2010) The Outlook for Energy in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union)

13 Kazakhstan: Sustainable Energy Financing Facility (EBRD): - loan of 75 mill $ to industrial enterprises; - technical assistance to conduct feasibility studies for companies; Uzbekistan: Energy efficiency in industrial enterprises (WB) - loan of 25 mill $ to industrial enterprises; Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: extension and rehabilitation of power grids (ADB, WB, EBRD) )

14 Skewed focus of the energy efficiency initiatives Power and heat supply sectors dominate in the past EE initiatives; Demand side management has been largely neglected; Few cases: UNDP-led projects on energy efficiency in buildings (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan) building codes, regulated heat consumption; Ban on export of incandescent bulbs in Tajikistan.

15 Limited regional cooperation Significant potential exists for efficient use of energy (and water) resources on regional level; Unified power system of Central Asia; Untapped hydropower potential in upstream countries; BUT Energy self-sufficiency attitude dominate in national energy security polices; Environmental and water security concerns in downstream countries; Enhanced transparency and discipline over pool management is needed.

16 THANK YOU! Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Program The Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia (CAREC) Orbita-1, 40, , Almaty, Kazakhstan Tel.: , , Fax: website: