Drivers and barriers to sustainable energy development in the MENA region

Transcription

1 Drivers and barriers to sustainable energy development in the MENA region Prof. Emanuela Colombo, Rector s Delegate to Cooperation and Development - Politecnico di Milano UNESCO Chair in Energy for Sustainable Development Department of Energy Engineering Without Border

2 Energy Development Rights & Equity 2

3 The Global SD Challenge From the 8 Millennium Development Goals the mainstream of development for DCs in Y2000 Global Society has to face interconnected & complex challenges: Interdependency, Internal inequity, financial, economic and structural crises Not equitable distribution of natural resources and raw materials to the Sustainable Development paradigm Economic Environmental Social a strategy for an inclusive growth in the post 2015 agenda 3

4 The Global SD Challenge and Energy what about Energy? Energy is essential to socio-economic development and to improve the quality of life International Energy Agency, 2005 Since then, energy has jumped at the forefront of the global agenda: achievement of the MDGs global security (raw materials, food, water.) environmental protection sustainable development Sustainable Energy will be a pillar within the post 2015 agenda 4

5 Energy & Sustainable Development Energy and the economic dimension IEA, WB, UNDP 2012 Total Primary Energy Supply Versus Electric energy Consumption Gross National Income Quantitative interdependency between Energy & Development 5

6 Human Development Index Energy & Sustainable Development Energy and the social and environmental dimension IEA, WB, UNDP ,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 R² = 0,78 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 Energy Development Index Malnutrition Versus Share of modern fuels Human development index Versus Energy Development index 6

7 Energy, Right & Equity Sustainable Energy should be a right for all Some Philosophical achievements that should drive policies Energy does not determine human dignity. With zero/poor access, fundamental rights may not be guarantee Energy comes to be an instrumental right 7

8 Energy, Right & Equity An issue of QUANTITY: access to energy IEA, 2014 Low income countries 1.3 billions No access to electricity 2.6 billions rely on traditional biomass for domestic need 95% in LIE 80% in rural area 15% efficiency 4 millions deaths /y Middle Income 1 Country billion, no access to reliable electric grid, regular provision of EE 90% in informal suburbs 5-15% annual outages High Income Country millions in EU are affected by fuel poverty An issue of QUALITY: affordability (energy may cost 10 times EU standard) reliability. safety 8

9 Energy In the MENA Region 9

10 Energy Needs in the MENA Region MENA Region Profile IEA, WEO2014 Human Devlopment Index - > African average - Similar to South Africa (BRICS) GDP - Less then 2 African average, - ½ then of South Africa Population Share between urban and rural is around 50% S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa: A comprehensive data and policies review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, September 2014, Pages , ISSN , Focus on Africa, WEO

11 Energy Needs in the MENA Region MENA region Forecast GDP Population annual growth rate (%) : Global Level Africa SSA Middle East MENA Region 4 % 2 % Focus on Africa, WEO

12 Energy Needs in the MENA Region Energy Economy TPES (Mtoe) TPES per capita - Double then other Africa region, - 1/3 of South Africa Electricity per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - ¼ of South Africa Energy Indicators CO2 per capita - >> then other Africa regions, - Even of those with similar TPES pc = > Fossil fuel driven mix S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

13 Energy Resources in the MENA Region Primary Energy Mix TPES share by fuel Key notes for the MENA region - Dominated by Oil ( 50%) - roughly 40% Gas - Biofuels /bioenergy 10% - Few % for Hydro and Coal S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

14 Energy Resources in the MENA Region Electricity Mix Electricity share by fuel Key notes for the MENA region - Dominated by Gas ( 60%) - roughly 20% Oil - Hydro is roughly <10% - Few % for Coal Fossil Fuel S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

15 Energy Resources in the MENA Region Power Sector 2 over 5 energy pools in the African Regional Economic Communities - Comité Maghrébin de l Electricité (COMELEC) - Central African Power Pool (CAPP) - Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) - West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) - Southern Africa Power Pool(SAPP) Key notes for the MENA region - Algerian holds 41% of IC in COMELEC - Egypt holds 78% in EAPP - Capacity is dominated by thermal plants - Hydro is expected to growth (=>in EAPP, WAPP and SAPP) - kw/100 habitants is higher in COMELEC, SAPP (< 1/2 the EU std) Energy Indicators Networking S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

16 Energy Effectiveness in the MENA Region Energy & C0 2 Intensity and Pollution Electricity intensity (toe/1000 USD) Key notes for the MENA region Energy intensity - Static situation - Lower values if compared to other African regions CO2 intensity - Among the Highest in Africa - < South Africa, > Soutern Africa C0 2 intensity (tonnes/1000 USD) Effectiveness S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

17 Main Enegy Issues In the MENA Region 17

18 Main Issues in the Mena region Quantity: the Energy Development Indicator EDI tracks the progress towards the use of modern fuels (electricity, LPG, natural gas, kerosene,paraffin, ethanol and biofuels ) and modern energy services Key notes for the MENA region - EDI is higher then the rest of Africa - Low installed power per capita affect EDI - Higher cost (lower affordability) EDI - only 1 M people over 650 in Africa without access to EE & modern fuels S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

19 Main Issues in the MENA region Quality: the reliability of the power sector Outages affects business in a direct way by reducing annual sales Key notes for the MENA region - Low level of reliability, exacerbated by weak regional network - Loss of productivity for African enterprises due to frequent outages - Unreliable electricity is a main constraint for African firms business - (off grid) Captive generation own genset (increase firms costs) - (on grid) Emergency power systems (short term leases, few % of GDP) S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

20 Main Issues in the MENA region Security: the energy strategy OIL GAS Key notes for the MENA region - Africa is the second net exporter of Oil after Middle East - Oil proven reserves are huge: similar to Latin America, 1/5 Middle East, 11 OECD EU - Major Oil producers are in the North and Weste: Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria - Africa is the second net exporter of Gas after non-oecd EU and Eurasia - Gas proven reserves are huge: 2 Latin America, 1/5 OECD America, 3 OECD EU - Major Gas producers are in the North and West: Algeria Nigeria, Egypt, Libya - Gas flaring practice is huge (7% in Algeria) S. Mandelli, J. Barbieri, L. Mattarolo, E. Colombo - Sustainable energy in Africa, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 37, Sept

21 Main Issues in the MENA region Security: the energy strategy Key notes for the MENA region - Few contribution from renewable energies - Large size plants are limited - Hydro > 1 GW (Egypt - Aswan ) - Wind > 500 MW (Egypt and Morocco) - Large scale Solar (Algeria and Morocco) - High potential for the whole continent => a total potential of more than TWh/year has been estimated by IRENA - High potential in the MENA Region - Mainly for Wind and Solar - When compared with electricity TFC RENEWABLES Installed Capacity (MW) Electricity Generation Potential / by electricity TFC (%) 21

22 The way foreward for the MENA Region 22

23 The way forward for the MENA region Towards a better-functioning of the MENA energy sector 1. MENA countries are endowed with energy resources, fossils and renewable 2. Energy system is weak in term of quantity, quality & security of the supply 3. the opportunities a more reliable energy system might offer to sustain the economic growth are often missed How to exploit domestic resources for improving the national energy systems to boost socio economic development Thus overcoming some of exogenous and endogenous barriers linked to institutional and political, economic and financial, technical and cultural barriers 23

24 The way forward for the MENA region Key Actions toward a MENA Energy System boosting regional economy Power sector investment, achieving universal electricity access in urban areas reducing power outages Increasing the penetration of renewable energies Deeper regional co-operation and integration, facilitating new regional-scale generation and transmission projects expanding cross-border trade can be a cost-effective way to increase reliability and affordability but this is often hindered by technical and political barriers Improved management of resources and revenues, adopting robust and transparent processes, revision of subsidies policies more effective use of oil and gas revenue, when available Broad improvements in governance taking the African Century Case as an example. Relevance of the domestic capacity to formulate /implement sound energy policies 1 dollar of additional power sector investment can boost GDP by $15. 24

25 The way forward for the MENA region Which role for Renewable energies (REs)? 1. NOT the unique answer when high reliability & energy density are required 2. Direct advantages decentralized /modular systems (captive power); In some areas they are cost effective unlock national resources thus increase energy security & efficiency may open new export/revenues (carbon credits) increase regional integration 3. Indirect advantages More complex to manage Storage, control.. Smart grid system REs act as booster for the education sector capacity building is needed for the required work different level research/innovation capacities are needed within local academia & institutions Provided that capacity building and integrated management of resources is established is set up other benefits may be added: employment opportunities may increase policies and strategies can be better assessed. 25

26 Sustainable Energy strategies Technologies Business models Enabling Policies long term development Equity Multiplier Socio-Economic effects Local Needs Local Resources human capital is ALWAYS an asset Thank you for you kind attention!!! And Good Luck for your energy future 26