Effect of Rainfall and Maximum Temperature on Corn Aflatoxin in the Southeastern U. S Coastal Plain
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1 Effect of Rainfall and Maximum Temperature on Corn Aflatoxin in the Southeastern U. S Coastal Plain Arnold Salvacion, Brenda Ortiz, Brian Scully, David M. Wilson, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dewey Lee 1
2 What is Aflatoxin? Carcinogenic toxin produced by the mold fungi Aspergillus Flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus Contaminated corn is especially toxic to especially young animals and poultry Sudden death in poultry and livestock (High ) / Cause liver and esophageal cancer (Low) Corn grain with Aflatoxin > 20 ppb can not marketed. Corn can not enter inter-state commerce and only can be used for livestock feed. Yellow-green powdery growth of Aspergillus flavus on a corn rootworm-damaged ear. (Source: Alison Robertson Iowa State) 2
3 Factors driving contamination Drought and heat stress during kernel filling High ambient temperatures 3
4 to reduce Aflatoxin risks associated with climate and weather conditions Objective Drought conditions are prone during the summer months in the Southeast May, 17, 2011 Identify the effect of rainfall and temperature on Corn Aflatoxin Contamination in the Southeastern U. S. Coastal Plain 4
5 Specific Objectives 1. Determine probability of aflatoxin contamination greater than 20 ppb for a given amount of rainfall and maximum temperature. 2. Determine which temporal resolution (Monthly, Decadal, and Weekly) of rainfall and maximum temperature can better predict probability of contamination 5
6 31 N 32 N 33 N 34 N 35 N Materials and Methods Corn Aflatoxin Data to 2004 (53 Counties in Georgia) 19 years Legend Georgia Counties Sampling Sites Weather Stations Historic weather data from 21 weather stations Logistic regression to test the relationship between aflatoxin level > 20 ppb and climatic variables 85 W 84 W 83 W 82 W 81 W 6
7 31 N 32 N 33 N 34 N 35 N 31 N 32 N 33 N 34 N 35 N Dry May-July Wet May-July 1978 Aflatoxin Contamination in Georgia 1997 Aflatoxin Contamination in Georgia Legend under over 200 Legend under over W 84 W 83 W 82 W 81 W 85 W 84 W 83 W 82 W 81 W 7
8 Results from previous studies Modeling the probability of aflatoxin contamination using the Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). Month(s) in which ARID could predict aflatoxin risk Model Months Coefficient Pr (> z ) March April May * June e -9 *** July * August * Aflatoxin risk can be predicted using ARID (70% confidence). June ARID values can be used to predict aflatoxin risk. 9
9 Stepwise logistic regression to evaluate the relation between aflatoxin contamination and climatic variables/time Coefficient p-value March-Rain event March - Rainfall March- Tmax 2.39E-06 March - Tmin April - Tmin May - Rainfall May - Tmin June - Rainfall June - Tmax June - Tmin July - Rain event July - Rainfall July - Tmax March Rain * March Tmax 9.81E-05 March Rain * March Tmin May Rain * May Tmin June Rain * June Tmin July Rain * Jul Tmax
10 Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Monthly level (June) Results Variable Estimate Std. Error p-value Intercept < Rainfall (mm) Maximum Temperature ( C) < AIC = Cross-Validation = Rainfall Rainfall (mm) Maximum Maximum Temperature Tempreature ( C) ( o C) 11
11 Predicted Probability Above Threshold Predicted Probability Above Threshold Predicted probability of aflatoxin contamination above threshold (20 ppb) based on monthly deviations of Rainfall and Maximum Temperature for the month of June Rainfall Deviations (mm) Maximum Temperature Deviations ( C) 12
12 Decadal level -10 days (June) Variable Estimate Std. Error p-value Intercept < Rainfall (mm) 2 rd Decade th Decade Maximum Temperature ( C) 2 nd Decade < rd Decade AIC = Cross-Validation =
13 Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Decadal level Rainfall 23rd nd Decade DECAD 3 rd 4th Decade DECAD Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) 14
14 Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Decadal level Maximum Temperature 2nd DECAD 3rd DECAD Maximum Tempreature ( C) Maximum Tempreature ( C) 15
15 Weekly level (June) Variable Estimate Std. Error p-value Intercept < Rainfall (mm) 2 nd Week th Week th Week (last two days) Maximum Temperature ( C) 2 nd Week rd Week AIC = Cross-Validation =
16 Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Weekly level (June) Rainfall 2nd Week 3rd Week 4th Week Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) 17
17 Predicted Probability Predicted Probability Weekly level (June) Maximum Temperature 2nd Week 3rd Week Maximum Temperature ( C) Maximum Temperature ( C) 18
18 Mean Aflatoxin Content (ppb) Adjusting Management Strategies Planting Date 1 Date st Planting Date 2nd Planting Date Planting Density Preliminary Data Collected in 2010 Aflatoxin risk due to climatic conditions during the growing season could be minimized by adjusting management practices 19
19 Conclusions Rainfall but most important Maximum Temperature are related to aflatoxin contamination. Rainfall and Max. Temperature conditions during the Second decade of June and/or second week of June can be used to predict aflatoxin contamination. 20
20 Thanks Brenda Ortiz
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