Acknowledgements. Outline. Transportation Planning / Modeling Old Paradigm. Transportation Planning / Modeling New Paradigm

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1 Transportation Planning & Tailpipe Emissions - Where are we and where are we going? Acknowledgements o Eric Jackson and Britt Holmén Lisa Aultman-Hall, Ph.D. Director, Transportation Research Center Professor, School of Engineering o National Science Foundation o New England University Transportation Center Outline Transportation Planning Tailpipe Emissions Connecting our models The Vermont Transportation Research Center What are tailpipe emissions and how do we reduce them? Old Paradigm Land Use and Activities Travel Demands Infrastructure Old Paradigm New Paradigm Land Use and Activities Travel Demands Infrastructure No feedback loops Limited design options - lack of diversity Non-optimal and expensive

2 New Paradigm Environmental Impacts of Transportation feedback loops - interactions multimodal optimal solutions require more complex analysis and better data New Paradigm New Paradigm Tailpipe Emissions Tailpipe Emissions - What is that? Vehicle Emissions - What are They? Evaporative (HC) Vehicle Emissions - What are They? Evaporative (HC) Tailpipe Tailpipe Hydrocarbons (HC) Nitrogen Oxides Carbon Monoxide Carbon Dioxide Particulate Matter HC + NOx + Sunlight = Ozone Health Greenhouse Gas Haze, Health Public Health Hydrocarbons (HC) Nitrogen Oxides Carbon Monoxide Carbon Dioxide Particulate Matter Running Emissions --- Soak Emissions --- Start Emissions

3 IDEAL Gasoline Combustion IN OXYGEN ATMOSPHERE: Assume Gasoline Composition = C 7 H 13 Real-world Fuel Combustion AIR is not 100% oxygen ~21 vol.% O 2 79 vol.% N 2 Internal combustion engines do not always result in complete combustion of fuel. INCOMPLETE COMBUSTION PRODUCES POLLUTANTS! C7H O2! 7CO H 2O FUEL + Oxygen Carbon dioxide + Water COMPLETE COMBUSTION! Fuel+ AIR ( O N2) CO + H O 2 2! + CO + HC + NO Regulated Pollutants Gasoline Engines Diesel Engines Air Toxics - Unregulated Emissions Why Do We Care? Carcinogens Non-cancer health effects: reproductive & neurological *No tailpipe regulations, currently. NO x CO HC NO x soot CO HC What are they? MSATs (Mobile Source Air Toxics): Benzene known human carcinogen Formaldehyde probable human Acetaldehyde, Acrolein carcinogens. 1,3-butadiene Diesel particulate & organic gases Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) - fuel additive After Jeffrey B. Burl and Duane Abata Michigan Tech University PM vs PN Diesel and Light-duty Exhaust Particles Diesel Particle Size Distribution Peak in Number Distribution ~ 20nm Normalized Particle Concentration Nanoparticles 0.18 Dp < 50 nm 0.9 Ultrafine Particles Dp < 100 nm Alveolar Deposition Fraction After D. Kittelson 1998 Diameter (!m) Heywood, 1988

4 Particle Size & Lung Deposition The human lungs cannot easily reject ultrafine particles! Normalized Particle Concentration Nanoparticles Dp < 50 nm Ultrafine Particles Dp < 100 nm Alveolar Deposition Fraction Diameter (!m) Alveolar Deposition Fraction Duration Spatial and Durational Environmental Effects Lead Noise Particles Space NOx CO2 Local Regional Global Source: Center for Transportation Policy, Operations and Logistics, George Mason University, Lecture Notes. After D. Kittelson 1998 Integrating Transportation and Environmental Models o Planning/Demand Models o Traf c Simulation o Function of o average link speed o time resolved and vehicle-based speed Current On-road Emissions Models Mobile (EPA) EMFAC MOVES (EPA) Measure CMEM Regional models based on vehicle class, average speeds and road class Emissions models developed based on operating mode but are still under development The Minivan Experiments The Minivan Experiments

5 The Minivan Experiments Space Power Vibrations The Minivan Experiments Space Power Vibrations Hybrids GPS Receivers ScanTool o Mounted on Roof o Position and Velocity o 1 Record per Second o OBD II o Velocity o 4 Records per Second GPS for Measuring Vehicle Operating Mode Accelerometers Mode Garmin GPS Geologger GPS o Mounted on Roof Idle o 1 Axis and 3 Axis Acceleration Cruise o Acceleration Deceleration Overall o 10 Records per Second

6 CT Emissions Test Route o 17 miles o Multiple Road Types o 13 miles (rural arterial) o 1 mile (divided highway) o 3 miles (local roads) o Speed limits o mph o October 11 th -31 st, 2006 o 22 Drivers Recruited o Each drove two circuits o 986 miles of data o 105,735 seconds of data Data Collection Consistency Consistency Emissions Factor vs Speed

7 PN Emission Factor vs Acceleration PN Emissions Factor vs Grade GPS enables Spatial Analysis What affects tailpipe emissions? Second by second operation Road type Driver Vehicle Traf c control Temperature and humidity Fuel How can we reduce tailpipe emissions? 1) Reduce the amount of travel UVM TRC Premise: Our transportation models will not answer the questions policy makers are asking o Transit including effective routing and innovative rural service o Bicycles and Walking o Mixed use developments and strong village centers o Telecommunications o Car sharing, car-pooling, taxi systems and ride sharing 2) More energy efficient vehicles o Hybrid and Plug-in hybrid vehicles o Smaller vehicles o Transit including cleaner fuels and non-traditional vehicles 3) Different energy, potentially lower Carbon Fuels for all vehicles 4) Driving Behavior -- eco-driving Tailpipe Emissions

8 University of Vermont Transportation Research Center Founded 2006 Transdisciplinary teams spanning 6 Colleges Transportation Integrated models Tailpipe emissions Tourism travel Seasonal variations Ef ciency University Transportation Center Signature Focus #1 Transportation and Land Use Models: New Model Components carbon footprint stormwater air quality security / robustness groundwater impact local freight plants energy costs What will the transportation and land system look like in 20 years? How accurate are existing models and how are they most effectively integrated? Partners: Resource Systems Group (RSG), Inc.; Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization; Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission; McMaster University University Transportation Center Signature Research Focus #2 Emissions and Performance of Alternative Vehicles in Northern Climates University Transportation Center Signature Research Focus #3 Sustainable Transportation for Tourism How do hybrid versus non-hybrid vehicle emissions and performance differ in the winter and in hilly terrain? How do tailpipe emissions vary with biodiesel fuel properties? How can emissions science be communicated to in uence individual behavior and serve the public interest? Unique UVM focus: on-board sensors, particle number emissions, low-cost sensors and public communication. Development of DOT traf c level of service measures for tourism areas. Does ECO-LABELING of green tourism increase economic and community bene ts? Do tourist travel experiences impact their routine travel choices? What social and economic factors affect tourism travel demand? Partners: Vermont Agency of Natural Resources; Resource Systems Group (RSG), Inc.; Udall Foundation; UVM Parking and Transportation Partners: Udall Foundation; Lamoille Valley Transportation Photo by Local Motion, Burlington, VT University Transportation Center Signature Research Focus #4 Seasonality and Built Environment Impacts University Transportation Center Signature Focus #5 Transportation Energy Ef ciency How does the built environment impact mobility and quality of life, especially for rural residents and including unserved demand? How do climate and season impact walking and biking for both purposeful and recreational trips? Project connects transportation, quality of life and active living. Partners: New England Transportation Institute (NETI); Resource Systems Group; VT Agency of Transportation; Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Photo by Local Motion, Burlington, VT De nition and metrics Agent-based modeling of adoption of PHEVs by region The relationship between travel and electricity demand External Partners: Vermont Law School, Central Vermont Public Service, Green Mountain Power and Burlington Electric Department

9 UVM Transportation Research Center Energy Environment and Vital Communities