Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.

Transcription

1 Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, An Environmental Trust, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, David Blittersdorf, Jan & David Blittersdorf Foundation, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, Canadian Co-operative Assoc., CAW, CEERT, Deutsche Bank, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, Pembina, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, World Future Council, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

2 Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota Advanced Renewable Tariffs for a Renewable Revolution by Paul Gipe OREP Roundtable

3 Renewable Tariffs The Philosophical Context Geothermal: Colline Metallifere, Italy

4 Primary High Penetration of Renewables Quickly Secondary What are Our Goals? Equitably Distributed Ownership Rural Development Distributed Generation New Industry & Jobs Wieringemeerpolder, the Netherlands

5 Do We Really Want Renewables? If Yes, Then What Works Best? San Gorgonio Pass, California

6 If Yes, Then What Works Best? Who Gets Contracts Elite Few or All Who Want Them? How To Pay For Them RECs/ROCs/Green Tags Subsidies (PTC, ITC) Advanced Renewable Tariffs --Differentiated Feed-in Tariffs Dunkerque, France

7 Market Mechanism Status Quotas (RPS & Tendering) Timid Targets Seldom Met Renewable Tariffs Once Only Non-Anglophone Countries Now Ontario, Great Britain, Vermont Meeting Aggressive Targets Haverigg, Cumbria, Britain

8 Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota Challenges in North America Piecemeal Policy Approach Too Slow RPS for Wind, Subsidies for Solar Cheap Energy Contract Cheap Today--Expensive Tomorrow Burdens the Poor and All Consumers... in the Future

9 Challenges in North America Low Program Caps California: 33%? LABC-Los Angeles: 3% Oregon: 25 MW! Solar Only or Wind Only Timidity & Lack of Vision Do We Want Renewables or Don t We? Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

10 2011 Gainesville, Florida 7.3 MW solar PV Installed 9.7 million kwh Population: 200,000 1/20th size of Oregon 150 MW Equivalent 640 MW Planned Gainesville Regional Utilities Solar PV Size Distribution Size <10 kw >1000 Total MW % 8% 23% 3% 11% 22% 28% Units % 21% 26% 1% 2% 2% 1%

11 Net Metering Little Net Benefit Overall (in MW) Feel Good for Participants With Renewable Tariffs, Who Needs It Europeans: Net Metering? Was ist das? Qu'est-ce que c'est? Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota

12 Net Metering TWh Contribution Solar PV: ~20% Worldwide Wind: ~0% Worldwide Wind & Solar: ~1% Worldwide! Conclusion: Insignificant Cowley Ridge, Alberta

13 What Do These Countries Have in Common? Mongolia South Africa Bulgaria Bosnia Iran Germany Spain Ireland China Slovenia Thailand Croatia Serbia France Portugal Uganda Partial List of Countries with Feed-in Tariffs

14 Feed-in Tariffs Deliver Results >50% of Wind Worldwide >75% of Solar PV Worldwide >90% of Farm Biogas Worldwide Ydby, Denmark

15 European Renewable Policy 23/27 States Use FITs Since % of all Wind from FITs ~100% of all Solar PV from FITs ~70% of all Biogas from FITs FITs Most Cost-Effective Policy FITs Principal Way to Meet Targets Fraunhofer Institute: Wörstadt, Germany

16 Cumulative Feed-in Tariff Programs Worldwide Feed-in Tariffs Quotas (RPS, RES) Year REN 21: Renewables 2011 Global Status Report, pages

17 Myths to Dispel Renewables Are Free or Cheap But They Are Affordable & They Are Worth It Renewables Can t Be Added Quickly or Can t Make a Difference Feed-in Tariffs Not Market-Based Feed-in Tariffs Are Costly Husum, Germany

18 Political Price-Political Quantity Market Mechanisms Price Quantity Feed Law Political Market Quota/RPS /Tendering Market Political Both Are Market Mechanisms

19 Ernst & Young Manawatu Gorge, NZ Germany and Britain Cost of Renewables (2006) Germany: 4x more energy generated 1/5 less relative cost of GB Renewable Obligation Certificates

20 IEA: Quota & Feed-in Tariff Cost of European Wind (2005) USD/kWh Quotas & TGC Feed-in Tariffs FITs: $0.04-$0.06/kWh less costly.

21 Overcost of French Renewable Tariffs 20 TWh Million Euros Other 15 Waste Small Hydro Wind 10 5 Million Euros Year 0 Source:

22 Aggressive Targets Ferndale, Ontario Require Aggressive Measures German Renewable Energy Targets Electricity 12.5% 39% 50% 80%

23 Renewable Electricity Targets Comparison % Supply Schleswig-Holstein Denmark Scotland Portugal Spain Germany California Ontario Current Target

24 Revolutionary: 100% Renewable Dardesheim Today--Electricity Schleswig-Holstein Electricity Rheinland-Pfalz Electricity Scotland Electricity Denmark Energy Druiberg, Sachsen-Anhalt, Germany

25 Why the European Success? #1 Community Involvement Germany & Denmark #2 Advanced Renewable Tariffs Many EU Countries use Electricity Feed Laws Stauning, Denmark

26 Advanced Renewable Tariffs What Are They? Payment for Generation (Feed-in Tariffs) Political Price, Not Political Quota How Do They Work? Price Differentiation Where? Paying for Solar, Paying for Wind Germany, France, Spain EU countries

27 Renewable Tariff Design Simple, Comprehensible, & Transparent Priority Access & Purchase Lengths Sufficient for Profitability Prices Sufficient to Pay for Generation Fair But Not Undue Profit Through Price Differentiation Altamont Pass, California

28 Renewable Tariff Design Price Differentiation For Different Technologies For Different Applications For Different Sizes For Different Resource Intensities For Wind (Germany, France, & China!) For Solar (France, Oregon)

29 Differentiated Tariffs for Wind Distributed Benefits Only Accrue From Distributed Generation Differentiated Tariffs = Distributed Wind Reduces Pressure on Windiest Sites Profitability Still Higher at Windy Sites Reduces NIMBYism By Enabling Greater Participation San Gorgonio Pass, California

30 French Wind Tariffs Resource Productivity Method Fair Profits at Medium Wind Sites Not Undue Profits at Windy Sites Profitability Index Method (Chabot) Not Discounted Cash Flow Model Igny, Lorraine, France

31 French Wind Tariffs by Specific Yield 0.15 $CAD/kWh Base Medium High Specific Yield (kwh/m2/yr) Chateau de Lastours, France

32 Elements of Success in Germany Right of Interconnection Right to Sell Electricity Right Price for Fixed Period TWh Generated per Year Solar PV Biogenic Biomass Wind Hydro Renewable Tariffs Launched Advanced Renewable Tariffs (FITs) Launched Year

33 Solar PV in Germany ~7,400 MW in 2011! Total 24,000 MW ~24 TWh/yr of Generation New Target: 3,500 MW/yr! ~3% Supply in : 50-70,000 MW 10%-12% of Supply USA: Total of 4,000 MW in 2011.

34 German Homeowners New Revenue Anyone with a Roof Can Do Solar in Germany And Make Money Doing It!

35 German Farmers New Cash Crops Wind Solar PV Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

36 German and Spanish Wind & Solar Generation 50 TWh/year German Wind German Solar Spanish Wind Spanish Solar Year

37 German Ownership of Renewables in 2010: 53,000 MW Individuals Farmers 40% 11% Developers 14% 13% 11% 9% 1% Others Industrial Utilities Investment Funds

38 The Farmers of Nordfriesland <1% of Oregon s Land Area 2,000 km2; 165,000 Population 850 MW of Wind 90% Community-Owned 6,000 Investors (4% of Population) <1% of Land Area 1.3 TWh/yr More than Altamont, More than San Gorgonio ~Tehachapi Pass 100 million ($150 million)/yr ~2% of Oregon s Generation Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

39 Germany s Renewable Tariffs The Results (2011) 20% of Electricity 12% of Primary Energy Jobs: 366,000 Wind: 96,000 Solar: 120,000 Biomass: 122, Billion Euros Invested in 2011 Hohe Westerwald, Germany

40 Cost of German EEG (2010) ~$110/yr/household EEG 10% Business Tax 16% Electricity Tax 8% Concession 8% CHP Act 0% Generation 58% BMU: EEG Surcharge 0.023/kWh, 2010.

41 Ontario Moved First First Modern System of Advanced Renewable Tariffs in North America Montfort, Wisconsin

42 Ontario Gets It Closing Coal Plants Putting Renewables First Groundbreaking in North America Delaying Nuclear Build Wise Move in Hindsight Goderich, Ontario

43 Ontario s Green Energy Act The Most Progressive Renewable Energy Policy in North America in Two Three Decades Goderich, Ontario

44 Ontario s Green Energy Act Changes Public Policy on Electricity Includes Industrial & Environmental Policy Gives Renewables Priority In Utility Procurement & System Design Targets Job Creation 50,000 Jobs in Three Years

45 Ontario s Feed-in Tariffs Differentiated by Size & Technology Differentiated by Application Tariffs Based on Cost of Generation Plus Reasonable Profit No Program Cap (Sort of...) Sarnia, Ontario

46 Ontario s Feed-in Tariffs No Subsidies or Grants Costs Borne by Ratepayers Not Taxpayers--More Egalitarian Community Wind Bonus Farmers Qualify ($0.01 CAD/kWh) Aboriginal Bonus ($0.015/kWh)

47 Ontario Program Status 50,000 MicroFIT Applications ~450 MW Potential 100 MW Contracts Offered 22,000 MW of FIT Applications Requires Substantial Deposit $10 Billion in Likely Private Investment

48 Ontario Program Status 4,600 MW Awarded Contracts 1,500 MW to Come with Line Completion 800 MW Community & Aboriginal ~18% of Total Ferndale, Ontario

49 Ontario Program Status ~1,200 MW Solar PV 300 MW Rooftop 900 MW Groundmounted with 500 MW of SOC PV ~1,700 MW Contracted ~2,800 MW Onshore Wind Kingston, Ontario

50 Ontario Program Status Completed First FIT Review Solar PV Tariffs 10%-30% Wind Tariffs Cut 15% Other Tariffs Remain Unchanged Raised Bioenergy Inflation Adjustment from 20% to 50% Review Moves to 1-yr Cycle To Review Renewable Target

51 Ontario Program Status Estimated Ratepayer Impact EnNGOs Proposed Program: 15,000 MW New Renewables 32 TWh/yr (21% of Generation) Ontario Feed-in Tariff Costing Model Revised Estimate of Rate Impact from Expanded FIT Program* Net Rate Effect of FIT Program Low Cost Natural Gas Scenario 13.4% Mid Cost Scenario 10.4% High Cost Nuclear Scenario 2.0% *Based on Ontario's IESO 2011 Market Prices m.asp?newsid=5930

52 Proposed Japanese FITs What s Right-What s Wrong Tariffs Differentiated by Technology Undifferentiated by Size Wind Solar PV, Biogas, Biomass, Geothermal Undifferentiated by Resource Intensity Prices--Simply Too High What Happens When Rushed

53 Renewable Policy--Best Practice Bold Targets That Can Excite the Imagination Advanced Renewable Tariffs... A System of Feed-in Tariffs Landau, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany

54 Feed-in Tariff Best Practice Policies Must be Comprehensive and Inclusive... Open to All for All Rockenhausen, Germany

55 Comprehensive & Inclusive Wind & Solar Biomass & Geothermal Renewable Heat Wörstadt, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany

56 Feed-in Tariffs for Renewable Heat Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland with CHP Slovenia without CHP Great Britain Vorupør Kraftvarmeværk, Denmark

57 British Solar Thermal (DHW) Tariff Years /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh <200 kw November 2011.

58 British Methane Biomethane Gas Injection Tariffs Years /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh <200 kw November Eifel Mountains, Germany

59 British Ground-Source Heat Pump Tariffs Years /kwh CAD/kWh USD/kWh <100 kw >100 kw November, 2011 Geothermal in Canadian English.

60 Feed-in Tariffs Best Practice for North America Differentiated Wind Tariffs Long Recommended--Time Now to Act Radical Revision of Solar PV Tariffs Breaking the Grip of US Tax Subsidies on Solar PV Prices Renewable Heat Tariffs Tariffs for Storage Dardesheim, Germany

61 Feed-in Tariff Best Practice Criteria Best Practice Program Caps None or >20% Project Size Caps Contract Term Multiple Technologies Cost-Based Tariffs Technology Differentiation Technology Banding Resource Differentiation None or 20 MW >20 years Wind, Solar PV, Solar DHW, Geothermal, CSP For All Classes Tariffs for Each Class By Application & Size Wind & Solar PV Middelgrunden, Denmark

62 Feed-in Tariff Best Practice Open to All for All Homeowners, Farmers, Business & Industry, Communities, Native Americans Regardless of Tax Status Tariffs with & without Tax Credits Solar Park Rodenäs

63 Protecting Creation Birth of a Religious Movement? Feed-in Tariffs Enable Churches to Participate in Renewable Energy Trinity College, University of Toronto

64 Schönau, Germany 900 German Churches Protecting Creation

65 Advanced Renewable Tariffs and Environmental Justice California Environmental Justice Alliance (CEJA) AB 1990: 375 MW by 2020 with Social Justice Bonus Great Britain Social Housing Returns provide services to the poor Opposed cutting solar PV tariffs

66 Feed-in Tariffs Turn farms, homes, and businesses into entrepreneurs --Terry Tamminen, Former Chief Policy Advisor to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Goderich, Ontario

67 Move From A Culture of Consumption to A Culture of Conservation --Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty Montfort, Wisconsin

68 Move From A Nation of Consumers to A Nation of Producers Lackawanna, New York

69 Renewables... When You Look Closely Worth Every Cent